Hunting secrets revealed

[Paul71]

A moving average is a mystical beast; mythical in nature and of mythical origins. Interestingly enough; as a species of the unknown mythical tribe - these creatures have never been seen due to their mystical movements.

The moving average is an average that is moving; except when it occasionally isn't moving - Thats interesting about this is how the moving average moves even though sometimes it mythically is believed to struggle to move - it really is amazing.

Thanks, that really is amazing, how could i have missed the simple nature of a MA.

 

[Paul71]

Right, we've got our market and we've got the chart, just a plain line chart. But now we need to create a Moving Average to be able to trade the market otherwise we can't trade. What's in the mix here, what is needed to create the tradable MA, help me out here.

 

[cpngtw]

Not all of the fundamentals of a business can be measured.

a few years back, I was invested in one of the UAL/Delta feeder airlines. As UAL got into trouble, the feeder airline changed their model and became a 'budget airline'.

They had gone from a guaranteed revenue stream to a rather risky direct sales model.

Add to that they were flying planes that were way less efficient than those run by the budget airlines they'd be competing with.

At this point, I exited my positions at a profit. They went bankrupt not long after.

All of this is fundamental analysis. None of it can be measured or represented in charts or squiggly lines. It's just common sense.

Good exit then. So how did you define criteria to enter that position? How did you know the price was cheap relatively to its value at the time of your entry? Common sense again or some friend tips or some tarot cards telling?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

When you say "works" what d'ya mean? You're not trying the 'x-over method' are you?

No lol. Strong divergence on the lower timeframes with certain set-ups. Seems to work.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Right, we've got our market and we've got the chart, just a plain line chart. But now we need to create a Moving Average to be able to trade the market otherwise we can't trade. What's in the mix here, what is needed to create the tradable MA, help me out here.

Trading based on only MAs? Thats the TA equiv of a jihadist tube spotter.

 

[Paul71]

Trading based on only MAs? Thats the TA equiv of a jihadist tube spotter.

Probably. But, up to now all we have is a line chart and a mathematical formula that draws another line on the chart at an 'average' of the price line. Up to now we have done no trading, but we have created another line. So what next? I suppose someone is going to come on and tell us that to buy a dip in a bull market we need our 'average line'? How did people go about buying bull markets before 'average lines' were invented? Fascinating stuff.

 

[Black Swan]

Trading based on only MAs? Thats the TA equiv of a jihadist tube spotter.

Not so sure tbh, think of it like a Tony Hart picture, add the most simple things until you reach a tolerance. I started off my trading by buying 'off' a line chart; when price went (rapidly) above an MA I went long and short when it went below. Looking back it was suprisingly effective, I never got phased by the 'zig zags' either. Not really profitable, think I broke even for 3 months, which could be considered a success by some..

 

[Black Swan]

The use of ONLY TA - just looking at a chart with/without squiggly lines and predicting what will happen next is what is being bashed to some extent. Maybe some people can make consistent money on all instruments just by looking at a chart and some squiggly lines and guessing what will happen next.

I have yet to meet such a person that makes a living this way.

In person? Really?

 

[virtuos0]

You full well know what pure TA is. You know what another trader refers to when they mention TA & you know what another trader refers to when they mention FA. The two are not the same. For instance, the whole of TA can be measured but the whole of FA cannot be measured.

Right now, Abercrombie & Fitch are having a tough time because they've gone out of fashion. This is not something you can measure by a metric. There is no 'fashionability index' on which you can see that A&F have slid down and double bottomed and may be ready for at least a retrace to a recent point of fashionability.

If you want a discussion on semantics, why not go to dictionary.com ?

If you want to brew things down to specific dictionary definitions to prove that fundamental and technical analysis are the same, then I can only suggest that you stick to TA because that is exactly what a technician would do.

Interestingly, I have been badged "Anti-TA" on this thread and the TA people have come out to defend something that no-one has yet attacked.

The use of ONLY TA - just looking at a chart with/without squiggly lines and predicting what will happen next is what is being bashed to some extent. Maybe some people can make consistent money on all instruments just by looking at a chart and some squiggly lines and guessing what will happen next.

I have yet to meet such a person that makes a living this way.

Abercrombie and Fitch are out of fashion? This is the most important thing to come out of this thread, I had no idea. Ah well, at least I won't have to buy dusters for a while.

 

[Paul71]

Abercrombie and Fitch are out of fashion? This is the most important thing to come out of this thread, I had no idea. Ah well, at least I won't have to buy dusters for a while.

Lol. It's funny you should mention A&F, dusters and fashion in the same sentence. I've only ever had one A&F polo shirt, bought as a present, terrible fit. I think they're designed for the more athletic type of person, and not the lager swilling, kebab meat and chips eating types. Haha.

 

[virtuos0]

I'm not going to argue against TA and FA because it seems a little futile. People have their beliefs and it seems that in a large number of people they take on a quasi-religious quality! You just end up going round in circles.

But what I will say is that I don't believe either branches hold the key, I believe that you can cut to the chase by trading what I would call 'market events'. It is a fact that there are certain occasions where you can answer the following questions about the market:

1: Who will move it?
2: Why are they moving it?
3: When will they move it?
4: What direction will they move it in?
5: How will they move it?

If the answer to question 2 is anything to do with fundamentals, thats fine. If the answer to question 2 is because of a 500mUSD barrier option, then fine. Makes no difference, as long as I know the answer. Each occasion is unique and I decide whether to trade it based on my experience of similar events and my overall knowledge.

This is the only way I know that enables you to trade the future. If you are trading pure TA, or indeed FA, you are always trading the past.

 

[cpngtw]

If you are trading pure TA, or indeed FA, you are always trading the past.

How so?

 

[Black Swan]

Lol. It's funny you should mention A&F, dusters and fashion in the same sentence. I've only ever had one A&F polo shirt, bought as a present, terrible fit. I think they're designed for the more athletic type of person, and not the lager swilling, kebab meat and chips eating types. Haha.

Lol have bought/now received 2 A&F beanie hats, that itchy e-bay finger waiting for price action again...(price action off the MACD ) I own 2 A&F hoodies too, bought them 2 years back, only used for training these days...good quality stuff but yes fading in terms of fashion now...time for me to plod the road for half an hour, didn't get to the gym today. This is now the cue for all my favoured pairs to explode into action, cheeky little fookers.

 

[virtuos0]

Chaps,

I have asked for this thread to be locked. I don't want it getting any more bloated than it is, and I feel that the essential points have been covered/answered.

I have a few other threads I want to start and would rather keep them focused.

Have a good one.

 

[counter_violent]

I believe that you can cut to the chase by trading what I would call 'market events'.
Each occasion is unique and I decide whether to trade it based on my experience of similar events and my overall knowledge.

This is the only way I know that enables you to trade the future. If you are trading pure TA, or indeed FA, you are always trading the past.

 

[Paul71]

Lol have bought/now received 2 A&F beanie hats, that itchy e-bay finger waiting for price action again...(price action off the MACD ) I own 2 A&F hoodies too, bought them 2 years back, only used for training these days...good quality stuff but yes fading in terms of fashion now...time for me to plod the road for half an hour, didn't get to the gym today. This is now the cue for all my favoured pairs to explode into action, cheeky little fookers.

That's about the size of it. Ooh, bad joke.

 

[Paul71]

Chaps,

I have asked for this thread to be locked. I don't want it getting any more bloated than it is, and I feel that the essential points have been covered/answered.

I have a few other threads I want to start and would rather keep them focused.

Have a good one.

V,

Anything along the lines of spotting order types comming through and thier effects on price? Good stuff, thanks.



Paul.

 

[neil]

the hat

That's about the size of it. Ooh, bad joke.

Get yours here

 

[Paul71]

Get yours here

I don't make much trading, but i can afford to turn the central heating on now and then. I need a cap, and not a leather biker type.

 

[Black Swan]

say no to Virtuoso's locked thread plea...keep him 'locked up' here... Besides, this thread is dying a natural death anyhow...