How would the probability of touch change?

[jj_agi]

If I sold an OTM put option(-16 delta) the probability of touching the short put strike is 32%(i.e 2*16). The risk profile is represented by the picture above.

 

[jj_agi]

How can I calculate the new probability of touching the short put strike given that price can not touch +16 delta(1 standard deviation above current price) before the short put is touched? The picture above shows the risk graph of the put combined with the area of the restriction(red zone).