How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

[renato0o]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Great info! Thanks dude. I hate to assume things, can you please define, or refer me to understand what power trend is?

Where do you look for overbought/oversold? What screener do you use?

Many thanks.

Here are some of the methods on how to make decision!! its kind of unorganized so pls ask me question if u dont understand! I'll explain my best.

this all depend, but usually this is good range for averaging down.
except maybe during option expiration, other important news(jobless claim, bernanke speaking,etc related).

always look for an oversold/overbought in BB,power trend, price degree the steeper the better.
the higher the timeframe, the stronger the retracement.
how do you know ? when price goes much further away from the overnight range.
by how much ?
for crude, usually it is by $1-2 range (u can also see euro/usd for correlation/divergence)
for gold, usually it is around $10 or so
for SP maybe 10 points or so.

same w/ daily pivot the farther it is moving from overnight range the better for scalping and avg down.

this price range estimate is more extreme during option expiration
just add more points

for example, today june 17,2010, after job claim data released, emini s&P hit high of 1117 but close was 1115.
it means that we need to anticipate 10 points below those 2,which is 1105 and 1107. however this week is option expiration,
so we need exxagerate those 10 points to 13 or so points.
furthermore, this was confirmed by big candle down which is I think more than -78 degree. good indication to scalp for retracement.

e.g. so for crude try to range it more than a 1 price range to $1.50, $2 or more range to scalp/avg down.
today crude high after stock market open is 77.80 and it sell off to 76.80 before it rebound slighlty (good time to scalp).
then it continue to drop 30 cents more below that 76.80.

 

[renato0o]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

this is a really cool video that always reminds me to check fundamentals in order to succeed. It reminds me to learn from my losses.

Video

its all boil down to when u should not avg down.
without this i would not survive. although sometimes i got caught up to forget checking the fundamentals. certain days/week and time when u should not do it. this is when avg down technique should be avoided. I mentioned that specific times in my thread if u read it.

yes my comm is high because i scalp. thats common for scalper. so i try to make enough each day to cover it and still earn profit.

thanks for the advice.

 

[renato0o]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Sorry if this a dumb question. What's OCO?

Thank you for the information
however, I have paid indicator and other indicators that will work on ninjatrader only and cannot be transferred to other platform.
I bought this ninja fully licensed few months ago to get its OCO order but I dont use it cause it's useless. Tradestation OCO is much much better.

platform fees are not worth it for me.

oh yea im following up on our previous conversation about OCO without stop and exit comes up together.

Yesterday the ninja customer service told me about OCO order has to be done with third party programming consultant. I do not think this customer service understand my question. I emailed them back that I can do this w/ Tradestation free platform. how come I cannot do this with fully licensed $1000 ninja platform. That's ridiculous.

 

[renato0o]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

haha good work!
what country is that?

gees im still in my country for vacation now. internet connection is horrible that my ninjatrader charts would not show at all. so I use pfgbest.com to see the lagging minutely and daily charts to trade plus the level 2.
I did very few trades only 5 days I think and was able to grow net $5k so far. I was amazed I could win even without my workspaces.
ill update u guys sorry for no news ill be back on august 18. still a long time, but still profitable.
let me know if u guys have question

 

[renato0o]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Is this a real sequence?
There is no sequence?

I added ur msn. idk if u accepted already.

I had 5 math and 3 brain teasers this noon.
one of them was 1,3,8,9, 19,29, … what is the next sequence ??
this was multiple choice for the math q

I basically need like strategy or mindset to solve this. because I never care how to learn this when I was a kid. I thought it was useless puzzle and I dont use it in trading lol

 

[renato0o]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Wow! What a crazy ride you've had bro. I've completed the entire thread. Sorry for all the questions.
What were you taking in school?
I hope that you find a successful job that will provide for you.

My question about your strategy is, if you're day trading and receiving live quotes, and if you're in a position and it goes against you, why not cover your positions and get in at a better entry point instead of averaging down? You're already checking out live quotes, time and sales and market indicators. It makes much more sense to me in order to maximize profits and minimize losses. But then again, I don't trade no where near your frequency or amount.

I am really look forward to your response.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I think 100K capital is enough for me lol. of course bigger is fine too so that I can do swing trading as well which yield higher profit and risk.

I am not always having a 10-20K swing daily, it's just that sometimes I have that stupid drawdown nobody is perfect. tried my best not to have this drawdown but most of the time I always able to make it back. but again this only works in certain time, i dont think it works a week before,during or after chrismast when the liquidity dried up and no important news comes up.

That;s the only month when I lose a lot. oh this technique is called Time Stop.

I think you need to find a big sum of money to trade with. These guys with their $1,000 limit a day will only halt your progress. I think you'll find it hard to get backing that will actually help you progress. I think you're better off trading your own money. I think you need to be looking at, at least $1mio with your strategy in order, for them to be comfortable with your $10k daily swings.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

google it duhh

its conditional order. the best platform that I know is Tradestation for this.
even ninjatrader.

e.g. if u wanna put both stop loss and target after you placed ur entry point. What happen next if either one of the stop loss or target is filled then , either stop loss or your target will be cancelled. simple right ?

in the example above ninjatrader,CQG and tradestation can do that. (simultaneous OCO order)

For this next example below, only tradestation can do it whether it is simulatenously or not.

e.g.
you place an entry with your target (without putting any stop loss). OR
you place an entry with your stop loss (but no target) OR
you place an entry with trailing stop loss ( but no target) OR
you place a trailing stop (without entry,target ,and stop loss) right after you have position. -> means you do not put the entry and trailing stop simultanously.

Sorry if this a dumb question. What's OCO?

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I use the powertrend indicator that I bought( I believe I post the website), how many number of hours,day and its steepness (angle) on 60 minutes chart, and time

the more steepness, the higher probablity to reverse.

this is what I used in the past. now i still use it, but not as often as I did in the past. why?
Because now I tend to follow the trend more so I do the reverse combined w my averaging techniques.

of course when I do i use counter trending I use less contracts and see the pivots level.

Great info! Thanks dude. I hate to assume things, can you please define, or refer me to understand what power trend is?

Where do you look for overbought/oversold? What screener do you use?

Many thanks.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I guess I am very hotheaded and stubborn, however my strategy fits my personality.
moreover, my fixed stops are always get filled and thats why I use this Time STOP strategy. the cons is the high drawdown and most firm doesnt like my idea of time STOP lol.

I tried my best not to have this, but it happens sometimes nobody is perfect. the only way to avoid this is to trade w/ the trend and knowing when the trend is changed. This is my secret lol

Wow! What a crazy ride you've had bro. I've completed the entire thread. Sorry for all the questions.
What were you taking in school?
I hope that you find a successful job that will provide for you.

My question about your strategy is, if you're day trading and receiving live quotes, and if you're in a position and it goes against you, why not cover your positions and get in at a better entry point instead of averaging down? You're already checking out live quotes, time and sales and market indicators. It makes much more sense to me in order to maximize profits and minimize losses. But then again, I don't trade no where near your frequency or amount.

I am really look forward to your response.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

actually the firm/broker that offered me to manage its capital will work on those 1000 stop loss. but I dont know how much I can stretch it yet lol. maybe 5k stop loss or so.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

SELL on MAY and leave it for a month lol.
i lost my trading profits, but I am learning in this selling on May hype. It could come true and in this case yeah

 

[b2u]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Hi, I have been trading only for a year and just done reading your thread. Have you recovered from ur losses?

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

been busy and not trading as much since my family here in the US. need to cater them everday , but im starting this week. so im recovering v slowly. but this time I will use stop and trade only if there is momentum. more importantly i will follow the trend means I will do less counter trading and do more of a higher probability (e.g. means when i see HH, i will wait for pullback to go long. I will do counter trend less often. and then if i see LL, i will short instead of fighting it). If i dont see this pattern or market is quiet ill try to stay away as much. In addition, I will try not to trade on news coming up and wait for several minutes.

I recommend you do the same and being picky like this to be more consistent.

furthermore, someone will offer me higher leverage and i might utilize by end of this month. ill keep u updated on this.

Hi, I have been trading only for a year and just done reading your thread. Have you recovered from ur losses?

 

[weiling]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

HI, Tommason,

I like your post. I think you are honest and it is very nice of you that you are sharing your sucess with us. I am curious how much you put in when you start trading. How much you have been losing in the past year? It says most people need to pay tuition when they starts trading.

The reason I asked is because I had a very bad trading day and I lost a lot in one day. I am just wondering how much we need to pay to learn the lesson?

Wish you good luch and thanks for your post.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I thought I already posted that answer in previous if you checkit.
I started in equity knowing nothing and loss a lot buying 5000 shares near the peak on 2007 and loss $15 instantly. then started trading commodity and loss even more.

I think you should be very well capitalized and be very patient and picky about your trading selection.
for futures market, the cheapest margin is in currency and Emini (dont play commodity yet its too much slippage for beginner!). I think you should start with EUR/USD and ES contract.

Here what you can do.
1) set about 2 or 3 trades/ day ( if you are afraid you can scale dont go all in to get better price).
2) Wait until you found pattern that you like! if you dont like the pattern just wait until you like it and play demo while you are waiting is fine!
2) set profit target =500 or 1000
3) set loss target = let say $500.
4) keep doing that everyday

note: most amateur they push themselv to trade even if they do not like the pattern, let say price keep dropping for few days, and you think price might rebound and most amateur will try to buy even the pattern to buy has not confirmed yet. so price keep going down and amateur usually lose.

note 2:
do not trade on holiday, during news,llight volume , shaky spread, etc.
Trade when there is momentum only and when the movement is smooth not choppy. some momentum has choppy move and move too fast (avoid this).
avoid no momentum market (slow or sideway movement).

but if you insist ,this is what happen few days before holiday.( laborday,july4th, christmast,etc).
1) usually a week or in the week before holiday, price tend to go up.
2) the key here is to find the strong uptrending market by doing multi time frame ( 15,60 minutes ,daily must be above 50 ,100 , and 20 day SMA) and form higher high.
3) you will tend to see lots of green candle which is going up but really slow.
4) when you see this green candle amateur would think that the price might go down and feel you wanna short it, but you should buy instead (so it is counter intuitive)
. This is what I mean by light volume (price just move to the upside slowly and make amateur wary that price might make correction).

tips before FOMC announcement usually before 1:30 EST or so
-price usually go up as well idk why, but follow the trend. once you see the correct pattern (higher high).
- I would not recommend for you to trade,but just watch it its interesting how price keep going up.

Let me know if I can help more and if you dont understand my answer!!.

I am currently working in NYC and trade firms capital in equity market only. I just got my series 7 about 3 weeks ago. I wish they give me money for futures market .

HI, Tommason,

I like your post. I think you are honest and it is very nice of you that you are sharing your sucess with us. I am curious how much you put in when you start trading. How much you have been losing in the past year? It says most people need to pay tuition when they starts trading.

The reason I asked is because I had a very bad trading day and I lost a lot in one day. I am just wondering how much we need to pay to learn the lesson?

here is just something that I found on net

Over the past century, there have been nine holidays during which the Exchanges have traditionally been closed. Historical research shows that stock prices often behave in a specific manner in each of the two trading days preceding these holidays. By becoming aware of this behavior, both short-term traders and longer-term investors can benefit.

The general strategy is to purchase equities one or two days prior to a holiday. Short-term traders would look to sell just after the holiday while longer-term investors would wait until year end. Both strategies have proven to be profitable plays. The theory behind this effect is that traders are lightening up their holdings (selling) prior to the three day holiday in order to avoid any unexpected bad news. The selling pressure drives stock prices down, making those days a good opportunity for buying lower in the range.

you can also read this preholiday effect!!!

The Pre-Holiday Effect - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I am trading equity now, its not that easy lol, my boss was mad that I did not follow his direction. I am losing 2200 just in 7 days and he checked my trades. and he told me if you made the right decision and still lose its fine, but if you made wrong decision over and over and lose. and told me to never average when against the trend. cut losses within $1 range immediately no matter what.
furthermore, he told me just move on trading with another stocks if you lose in that stocks do not get stuck because there are lots good stuff out there.

e.g. today I was shorting LNKD when it was the sector leader of the day , when Market was down from the open. so relative strength of LNKD is way up.

so for every new traders out there, if you got stopped out even your set up is good do not worry or feel bad about it. in terms of target, he just want me to let it run since I almost always play with trending stocks versus sideway stock & go with the trend. I mean if you let your profit run its not gonna run in sideways market , be realistic lol

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

for new intraday trader to be discipline must read everyday before start of trading day !
1) id rather be stopped out 3 times w small losses (& take a break) rather than 1 big dumbass losses.
2) Never change stop , u can always have another entry later
3) Ignore market when you do not like the pattern (dont be obssesed)! there will be pattern that you like later.
4) you stop loss should be approximately about how much you can make in a day (not any fixed set of number).
5) do not trade at the open!!! wait until there is pattern for entry!! (pullback , doji, etc).
e.g. if you miss the trade because it move too fast, who cares just wait untill you see pullback with normal speed so you can think and place your order.
6) do not trade on big news, breaking news, option expiration, triple witchin day (you can do demo)
why? because it move too fast that you cannot follow, wait until you see decent entry then go
7) you must have self control . do not worry about your profit/loss. Worry about the process and your p/l will take care by itself
8) Trade when there is clear momentum (one direction) with visible pullback (or)
9) often there is a day when price never retraces (candle size and trend are very consistent) . do not fight this move!! e.g. (G2 meeting, etc). if you get stopped out from mean reversion u will know.
10) you can change your exit target but never stop loss
11) able to identify trending vs nontrending days (so you know what to expecT higher/lower exit target)
12) have target for the day
13) compare all percentage for all instrument you trade ( buy on pullback on leader % , do not FADE it , short on laggard % on pullback, do not fade it).
14) NEVER CHASE ENTRY who cares if it doesnt get filled, market are forgiving and will give you entry.
15) try to do this for 1 month and see the result.

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

for new intraday trader to be discipline must read everyday before start of trading day !
1) id rather be stopped out 3 times w small losses (& take a break) rather than 1 big dumbass losses.
2) Never change stop , u can always have another entry later
3) Ignore market when you do not like the pattern (dont be obssesed)! there will be pattern that you like later.
4) you stop loss should be approximately about how much you can make in a day (not any fixed set of number).
5) do not trade at the open!!! wait until there is pattern for entry!! (pullback , doji, etc).
e.g. if you miss the trade because it move too fast, who cares just wait untill you see pullback with normal speed so you can think and place your order.
6) do not trade on big news, breaking news, option expiration, triple witchin day (you can do demo)
why? because it move too fast that you cannot follow, wait until you see decent entry then go
7) you must have self control . do not worry about your profit/loss. Worry about the process and your p/l will take care by itself
8) Trade when there is clear momentum (one direction) with visible pullback (or)
9) often there is a day when price never retraces (candle size and trend are very consistent) . do not fight this move!! e.g. (G2 meeting, etc). if you get stopped out from mean reversion u will know.
10) you can change your exit target but never stop loss
11) able to identify trending vs nontrending days (so you know what to expecT higher/lower exit target)
12) have target for the day
13) compare all percentage for all instrument you trade ( buy on pullback on leader % , do not FADE it , short on laggard % on pullback, do not fade it).
14) NEVER CHASE ENTRY who cares if it doesnt get filled, market are forgiving and will give you entry.
15) try to do this for 1 month and see the result.

for an effective affect, all sentences containing the word "you" need to contain the word "I" instead......

make the change now, immediately, as that is exactly how a trade is.....think about a trade like this, fundamentally approached, in this order; focus, knowledge, focus......how well focused i am, to the knowledge i have, determines how focused i am in the trade once it is active......

just an idea

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

for an effective affect, all sentences containing the word "you" need to contain the word "I" instead......

make the change now, immediately, as that is exactly how a trade is.....think about a trade like this, fundamentally approached, in this order; focus, knowledge, focus......how well focused i am, to the knowledge i have, determines how focused i am in the trade once it is active......

just an idea