How to improve our odds!?

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
Sorri 4 being un-active I have been busy testing the trade game recommended in one of the early posts. This game feature some social trading which made me think about financial market dynamics and market micro structure.

If this trading game give me opportunity to behave as a broker and capitalize mistakes of my opponent why on hell we all aspect from brokers to be our friends. Look the social information which they have in real time when their clients place their trades/bets.

Let me slow down a bit and direct you toward picture enclosed. It shows, the fight between me and opponent at the time where I follow the opponent activity in real time. He has open two trades gbpusd (+75) & eurjpy (-40) and I am about to exploit and take advantage of his eurjpy trade. Only what I have to do is replicate the mistake he/she has made with eurjpy and I will have advantage of 40units regardless what happen the next.

By replicate his/her mistake I achieve one of the following:

a) I gain points if trade replicated goes my way and opponent comes to break-even (result - I have 40 units more than opponent)

b) I loose point if replicated trade go against me but my opponent will loose 40units more so I really dont need to care any more.

c) I dont gain anything because my opponent recognised my intention, either a) or b) and forced him/her to accept the losses instantly.

Easy!!! And I won!!

Can you see the impact of social information. Can you recognize how powerful some participants who create the market are because of social information they have? They follow the huge volume of market activity at real time with same aim that I demonstrated above at a), b) and c) just to capitalize mistakes of their opponents. And the statistics, and zero sum game, and many more................think, is broker your friend!!??

I go now, said enough for today. Now is your time to express yourself!!

regards
SB
 

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NVP

Legendary member
36,767 1,880
How to improve our odds!?
In general we are pre programmed to do all of the wrong things, we take excessive risk when we should be conservative (e.g. allowing losses to run), we are conservative when we should take risk (e.g. taking profit rather than letting profits run). Most people fail at most things! But why!? Does stress and greed makes us prone to tunnel vision and less likely to focus on information we need.
The situation is made even worse because different gurus rapes us every day and practically all of the advice available is at best of no value because its context sensitive, advice that may be beneficial in one situation is detrimental in another, and at worst, much of the advice offered or sold is complete nonsense......so.....how to improve our odds!?
we are programmed from caveman times ...........we cant stop ourselves ................but we can try to overide the emotions with experience

N
 

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
As humans we over complicate strategy so dont use many indicators, because they are a waste of time.
Focuses on your simple strategy and learn how each asset to suit her
Agree with you 100%. Widely popular Indicators In game theory and economic theory, cant work in zero sum game situation in which a participant's gain of utility is exactly balanced by the losses of the utility of the other participant.
 

Pat494

Legendary member
13,843 1,399
1.Always bet within one's budget so a loss of say 1% is of little consequence imho
That gets rid of the FEAR actions of jumping out too soon or too late.
2. never set a set stop loss unless you are away from the screen but pick a level of movement and re-asses your position when it is reached. Maybe you need to close out because it is looking really bad. MAYBE JUST INCREASE YOUR STAKE A LITTLE - IF IT IS STILL LOOKING NOT TOO BAD OR IF IT IS LOOKING EVEN BETTER CONSIDER INCREASING STAKE. PAST EFFORTS WILL TELL YOU THE ANSWERS. IF YOU KEEP LOSING THEN STOP AND PAPER TRADE ON A DEMO ACCOUNT - THEY ARE FOR FREE.
 

Pat494

Legendary member
13,843 1,399
Be nimble in your actions and chase profits.
The plodders use fixed stop loss and target prices. Never achieve much being slow and lazy in any human endeavour.
 
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sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
Have anyone tried Bollinger band binary option strategy??
Last week I were short EURJPY where bollinger band was broken downwards and now I have got mixed results on 30sec expiry option despite eurjpy were heading south. Will test some more.
 
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sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
"The human brain has a peculiar way of rationalizing everything and filtering out unpleasant realities that it knows to be true."
- Peter Troob
 

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
"It is often said that: “is wise he who can see things coming.” perhaps the wise one is the one who knows that he cannot see things far away."
-Nassim Nicholas Taleb
 

ffsear

Senior member
2,047 393
Getting hold of your emotions is important when wanting to improve your odds.

Fear, Greed, lack of Confidence, Over confidence, Anger, Impulsiveness and many more. Find out which ones are your achilles heal and deal with them. Sadly I have found that it takes money to work out which emotions affect you and which ones you need to control. Demo trading simply won't help.

Losing real money thought me more then any book possibly could.
 
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sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
Getting hold of your emotions is important when wanting to improve your odds.

Fear, Greed, lack of Confidence, Over confidence, Anger, Impulsiveness and many more. Find out which ones are your achilles heal and deal with them. Sadly I have found that it takes money to work out which emotions affect you and which ones you need to control. Demo trading simply won't help.

Losing real money thought me more then any book possibly could.
Yeah Its kind of painful learning curve and I couldnt agree more that demo is not the same than Real. You have to practice Real in order to see you weaknesses.
 

Pat494

Legendary member
13,843 1,399
Ask the wife if you REALLY want to know your weaknesses.
Prolly wish you never had after day 1

:)
 

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
Arbitrage surely increase your odds!!

I have just realized that arbitrage opportunity might be open for me.

For those who wonder what arbitrage is wikipedia says "arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow.

If you look carefully the picture attached you will see the list of results and players presented. Each player has got virtual 1000$ for 5.5€ entry ticket to participate in the contest.

The good thing for me is that I will might enter the contest just to take advantage of free money if this opportunity will be still open 15min before contest end.

Check the 17th place and my result $650. Not very proud though that I lost 350€ of initial 1000€ virtual balance but I am still in payout structure because other players wanted to be 1st (ad win 1000% profit) and win nothing by bankrupt all virtual money. I hope it remain like that:cool:. Will keep eye on it and arbitrage last 15min if possible. Will see!!

BOTTOM LINE: Arbitrage increase the odds but its hard to spot it. Ive noticed randomly because I have checked my bad Contest results a and figured out that I might get paid for it, hehehe.
 

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