How to improve our odds!?

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
How to improve our odds!?
In general we are pre programmed to do all of the wrong things, we take excessive risk when we should be conservative (e.g. allowing losses to run), we are conservative when we should take risk (e.g. taking profit rather than letting profits run). Most people fail at most things! But why!? Does stress and greed makes us prone to tunnel vision and less likely to focus on information we need.
The situation is made even worse because different gurus rapes us every day and practically all of the advice available is at best of no value because its context sensitive, advice that may be beneficial in one situation is detrimental in another, and at worst, much of the advice offered or sold is complete nonsense......so.....how to improve our odds!?
 
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sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
I believe that fear, hope and greed stops us from profiting. Maybe, we should bet with a position size that generates no emotions and practice nice, calm and relaxed betting instead seeking excitement. Is it possible that automated and emotions free betting could improve our odds!?
 
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onlyone

Newbie
6 1
The automated system perhaps can help but you still going to be in handicap no matter how emotion-free your system is because you always play against the house............................let me tell you my story.... when i place bets, this is similar to walking thru a door that leads into the bank, and as soon as i get in the door the bank slaps me up side my head... i walked thru the door with a single dollar in my hand...and the first thing that nice banker does is that he take a few pennies from me...the first slap is called the spread that we pay to enter a trade....that spread comes right off of the top...like, bam, give it to me, says the nice banker man. slap! slap! ok, fine, my dollar is now worth 97 cents, for example...so, my dollar that i walked into the bank with is dwindling...drip, drip, drip, goes my dollar, a few pennies at a time, into mr bankers pockets...and i gotta come out of this situation with more than a dollar in my hands? the odds of my actually walking out of the bank with more than my original dollar are not very much in my favor. the bank always have advantage.
 

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
I believe the society that we live in implies us to not make any correct decisions for ourselves and only listen to the "experts". The way i see things..everyone can make the correct decision its just that so few people do this in real life as well as betting.
 

sparkness

Newbie
5 0
The automated system perhaps can help but you still going to be in handicap no matter how emotion-free your system is because you always play against the house............................let me tell you my story.... when i place bets, this is similar to walking thru a door that leads into the bank, and as soon as i get in the door the bank slaps me up side my head... i walked thru the door with a single dollar in my hand...and the first thing that nice banker does is that he take a few pennies from me...the first slap is called the spread that we pay to enter a trade....that spread comes right off of the top...like, bam, give it to me, says the nice banker man. slap! slap! ok, fine, my dollar is now worth 97 cents, for example...so, my dollar that i walked into the bank with is dwindling...drip, drip, drip, goes my dollar, a few pennies at a time, into mr bankers pockets...and i gotta come out of this situation with more than a dollar in my hands? the odds of my actually walking out of the bank with more than my original dollar are not very much in my favor. the bank always have advantage.
You made the point!!! For that reason I do not play anything than TradeFight where you do not actually play against the house - the house, yes, has a rake - but you do play ultimately against your fellow human. As a result, imho, Tradefight is the least "gambly" out of all the gambling games out there - in theory, it is a 0-sum game where the edge one has ultimately boils down to whoever has the biggest set of balls (pardon-my expression) - of course, without doing some really foolish things - but those have been known to work too on occasion. Any other game is really set to have the advantage for the house.
 

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
I contemplate martingale betting strategy lately because it seems to me that I cant bet wrong 10 times in row. Only concern is how I am going to deal with emotions as soon my draw-down will mount up. I guess I could win over house by this approach. What do you think??
 

onlyone

Newbie
6 1
Let's apply some common sense. If it were possible to win at casino by using Martingale (i.e. varying position size or method) alone, then surely every man would go down that path, and become a millionaire. The 'willing-buyer, willing-seller' and zero sum game constraints provide proof that this is an impossibility. If 6 losses in a row, that's 1+2+4+8+16+32+64 = 127 units at risk. So we need odds of 127 to 1 in our favour that we win, to justify that bet size. The problem is that our bet size is based on our desired account balance, and is no longer intact with the probability that's being offered by the market. Bottom line ………………..NO to martingale!!!!!!
 

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
Let's apply some common sense. If it were possible to win at casino by using Martingale (i.e. varying position size or method) alone, then surely every man would go down that path, and become a millionaire. The 'willing-buyer, willing-seller' and zero sum game constraints provide proof that this is an impossibility. If 6 losses in a row, that's 1+2+4+8+16+32+64 = 127 units at risk. So we need odds of 127 to 1 in our favour that we win, to justify that bet size. The problem is that our bet size is based on our desired account balance, and is no longer intact with the probability that's being offered by the market. Bottom line ………………..NO to martingale!!!!!!
There are lots of ways to mitigate the effect of the Martingale:

- You can use a less severe betting progression (e.g. Fibonacci steps, d'Alembert, etc), but then it takes more than 1 win to return to breakeven.

- You can start with a small pos size, but then your return is reduced in proportion with the risk.

- You can cut your losses and start over, e.g. after 5 losses.

- You can withdraw winnings from the account periodically.
 

Range Finder

Member
65 0
You made the point!!! For that reason I do not play anything than TradeFight where you do not actually play against the house - the house, yes, has a rake - but you do play ultimately against your fellow human. As a result, imho, Tradefight is the least "gambly" out of all the gambling games out there - in theory, it is a 0-sum game where the edge one has ultimately boils down to whoever has the biggest set of balls (pardon-my expression) - of course, without doing some really foolish things - but those have been known to work too on occasion. Any other game is really set to have the advantage for the house.
Hi there Sparkness. I have never heard of TradeFight before but have just been looking at the website. Do you make good money on this site or is it more for fun?
 

sparkness

Newbie
5 0
Hi there Sparkness. I have never heard of TradeFight before but have just been looking at the website. Do you make good money on this site or is it more for fun?
...thats my statement! Judge for yourself if I made enough. So far I deposited 100EU in total.
 

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sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
...thats my statement! Judge for yourself if I made enough. So far I deposited 100EU in total.
Hello sparkness!! I am not sure what you actually saying here. You have made 200%+ but is very unclear in what time (1month, 1day, 3years)!? And deposit and .... the statement is very confusing for me - I got no idea how to interpret it. Will you please share whats all about!?

Many thanks!!
 

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
GREED - it is this feeling when you want to get rich fast. many newbies have beginners luck. they gain 20-50% of profit in just 3 trades and they think: woooow - I must be really good. without testing the system for long enough time they go it with real cash, and suddenly they realise they are crap - I was like that (and sometimes I still am) – In my first 2 weeks of trading real account I made about 110% profit. Where are the money now? I'm not sure, but 1 think I know – I don't have them. So if you think you will get rich within few months – forget it and I really mean FORGET IT.
 

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
REVENGE – you just lost 5% of your account – how come? You HAVE TO get it back, NOW!. So you go for another trade, and you lose 5% more – WTF??!! this time I will get it back, I have to, I know how to trade................ how do you feel now, when you lost within couple hours 35% of your account balance? You shouldn't over-trade reckless but rather take some time off computer, go for a walk or coffee, because there will be another day tomorrow and your trade decisions less emotional, more object!
 

sportbilly

Junior member
37 0
REGRET - sometimes you feel angry because you missed so good opportunity to earn – so what???!!!! you miss life changing opportunities every day without even knowing it. You miss opportunities for a better job, to meet a love of your life, opportunities for profitable business. It happens every day that you miss opportunities, and you don't even know it. Chart shows you that you missed opportunity to gain 30 pips – so? You missed it this time, next time you may have more luck – keep trying don't give up.