How not to make money trading the markets (part 2)

[Hotch]

I've dug out my lucky coin again!

Going to do things a little differently this time.

Flip a coin every hour, long on heads, short on tails. Set a limit and stop. Repeat at the next hour. Trading solely EU for now.

£100 account, 10p/point, not as confident with this.

Part 1 can be found here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/54694-how-not-make-money-trading-markets.html

 

[Hotch]

Just managed to fit that in. Tails, so short eu here @ 1.34599. Stop @ 1.34699 target @ 1.3437.

 

[Hotch]

Heads.

entry 1.35227, stop 1.34264, target 1.373.

Oh, and the previous trade lost (-£1)

 

[Hotch]

Maybe I should run this so it's only if I have no orders open, or go to a different pair or something, oh well, for now.

short @ 1.35099, stop 1.35262, target 1.34827

 

[Barramundi]

I've dug out my lucky coin again!

Going to do things a little differently this time.

Flip a coin every hour, long on heads, short on tails. Set a limit and stop. Repeat at the next hour. Trading solely EU for now.

£100 account, 10p/point, not as confident with this.

Don't laugh.....you might even beat the trading room moderators at Live Trader Global (LTG Goldrock) with this strategy!

 

[Hotch]

Got another heads.

 

[elitejets]

Are you updating the thread every hour? I might open a book on how many pages this lasts

 

[the hare]

pearls before swine

 

[Hotch]

Short @ 1.34931, stop@ 1.35076, target @ 1.34544

Oh, I forgot:

part 1: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/54694-how-not-make-money-trading-markets.html

 

[Hotch]

Are you updating the thread every hour? I might open a book on how many pages this lasts

Finished for the day, probs start 7am tomorrow unless alarm clock fails again.


I'm thinking I need to change this up a bit it's a bit dumb as is, I admit it wasn't thought through, having decided to do it 5 minutes before the hour.

Shall rework it I think.

 

[DashRiprock]

What do you hope to achieve by doing this?

 

[Hotch]

What do you hope to achieve by doing this?

To produce utility in the most efficient manner, isn't that what we're all trying to do?

 

[DashRiprock]

To produce utility in the most efficient manner, isn't that what we're all trying to do?

OK.Good luck to you mate - I hope it turns out the way you want.

 

[megamuel]

Hotchy I have a more exciting idea! Why don't you flip the coin, head-long tails-short. Have an equal risk reward. If the trade wins then flip and enter again. If it loses - Martingale and DOUBLE UP in the same direction. That would be good to watch!

 

[Hotch]

Hotchy I have a more exciting idea! Why don't you flip the coin, head-long tails-short. Have an equal risk reward. If the trade wins then flip and enter again. If it loses - Martingale and DOUBLE UP in the same direction. That would be good to watch!

Give me a grand to punt on it and your on!

Apologies that this hasn't got off the ground yet, some stuff came up and I'm suddenly busy. I am thinking more that I'll enter positions at the start of the day based on coins and then exit when I think is best, but I'm open to suggestions.

 

[Splitlink]

Hotchy I have a more exciting idea! Why don't you flip the coin, head-long tails-short. Have an equal risk reward. If the trade wins then flip and enter again. If it loses - Martingale and DOUBLE UP in the same direction. That would be good to watch!

An exciting idea? Depressing, in my opinion. It is the attitude of someone who has given up on TA. I believe that short time frames are random but have not given up on the possibuility that they might not be.

If I see a trend in place, short term, I am not going to toss a coin to decide which way to go. I am going to follow my opinion and trade where I believe the probability is. Otherwise, what am I doing here? I might as well be throwing dice. At least, I would know that I, and all my opponents are all brainless. Trading might be the same, but it is more complicated. Why bother wirh it, then?

 

[the hare]

An exciting idea? Depressing, in my opinion. It is the attitude of someone who has given up on TA.

I dont necessarily think they've given up. I do the equivelent of flipping coins for entry, and it took hundreds of thousands of man hours in research to pull the trick off. In fact its the most valuable exercise I ever did. It makes you focus on exits, trade management and position size.

I'd argue that flipping coins is the starting point for actually begining to understand technical analysis, and starting to understand trading as a probability based game. After that the next stage is the application of TA to random markets. Until people actually do this they generally dont have the first idea about TA !

Whilst there are perfectly good methods in the public domain bassed on TA confluence, I really dont think that most people are able to apply these without a firm understanding of how a technical edge should be exploited, or an understanding of the random distribution in returns. Flipping coins, if done correctly is a good a way as any to start to understand that process.

flipping coins has very many benefits. It completely removes any expectation of profit, and it allows those undertaking the exercise to focus on the important lesssons that can be learned from the exercise, rather than the pursuit of profits.

Your comment about about trend is spot on. Even flipping coins for entry you'll find that the majority of your winners are with trend, and the majority of your losers are countertrend. This of course assumes that the dunces understand what a trend is and how to measure it, which most dont because rather than using their eyes and experinece they try to find an indicator to tell them if somethings going up or down !

 

[Splitlink]

I dont necessarily think they've given up. I do the equivelent of flipping coins for entry, and it took hundreds of thousands of man hours in research to pull the trick off. In fact its the most valuable exercise I ever did. It makes you focus on exits, trade management and position size.

I'd argue that flipping coins is the starting point for actually begining to understand technical analysis, and starting to understand trading as a probability based game. After that the next stage is the application of TA to random markets. Until people actually do this they generally dont have the first idea about TA !

Whilst there are perfectly good methods in the public domain bassed on TA confluence, I really dont think that most people are able to apply these without a firm understanding of how a technical edge should be exploited, or an understanding of the random distribution in returns. Flipping coins, if done correctly is a good a way as any to start to understand that process.

flipping coins has very many benefits. It completely removes any expectation of profit, and it allows those undertaking the exercise to focus on the important lesssons that can be learned from the exercise, rather than the pursuit of profits.

Your comment about about trend is spot on. Even flipping coins for entry you'll find that the majority of your winners are with trend, and the majority of your losers are countertrend. This of course assumes that the dunces understand what a trend is and how to measure it, which most dont because rather than using their eyes and experinece they try to find an indicator to tell them if somethings going up or down !

We have a lot in common because I have, always, believed that eyesight is quicker and more reliable than indicators in spotting trends.

However, do you realise that 100,000 man hours is, working 12 hours per day, 22 years? How much time do you think I've got?

 

[neil]

We have a lot in common because I have, always, believed that eyesight is quicker and more reliable than indicators in spotting trends.

However, do you realise that 100,000 man hours is, working 12 hours per day, 22 years? How much time do you think I've got?

You sound like one of those people who, because of advancing years, no longer walk past cemetaries but turn in and examine the headstones etc, as if window shopping!

 

[Hotch]

Sarcasm fail?