madasafish
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here's my daytrading (zipped)
10-20 ES moves
Futures traders love to move ES in 10 or 20 price moves. This is such a valuable tool I use when trading. Yesterday was yet another perfect example of the swings. As the market was ralling yesterday I was initially looking for a target of 848 and covered some, then 858.
Futures traders love to move ES in 10 or 20 price moves. This is such a valuable tool I use when trading. Yesterday was yet another perfect example of the swings. As the market was ralling yesterday I was initially looking for a target of 848 and covered some, then 858.
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Tick
Use tick as a contrarian indicator. I try and time my trades as tick reaches extreme levels. Normally 1,000 plus. Note how the tick reaches an extreme about 14:20, and look at the intermiate top for the day on ES (also 20 points off the bottom) a nice low risk short entry (initial target 10 points lower).
Use tick as a contrarian indicator. I try and time my trades as tick reaches extreme levels. Normally 1,000 plus. Note how the tick reaches an extreme about 14:20, and look at the intermiate top for the day on ES (also 20 points off the bottom) a nice low risk short entry (initial target 10 points lower).
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I have decided to trade futures. I am not doing very well in spreadbetting and I may not do well in futures but I must give it a try. I have learnt that IB is the cheapest broker and I will open an account with them. The question is which indice I should trade? I think I should start with some indice which is not very volatile and the stake is the lowest. Please comment and comment even it might be hurtful. Thanks.
madasafish
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Never traded futures?
Want a free (yes free!) real time voice guide and system and call on MIRC?
Excellent system and appaears to work very well. Although it is based on E Signal you can program it quite easily... fully explained on their website. The guy who runs it is a pro trader..
and posts his charts in real time, explains where he thinks the market is going and how far.
http://www.tradesphere.us/
Can thoroughly recommend it..
Want a free (yes free!) real time voice guide and system and call on MIRC?
Excellent system and appaears to work very well. Although it is based on E Signal you can program it quite easily... fully explained on their website. The guy who runs it is a pro trader..
and posts his charts in real time, explains where he thinks the market is going and how far.
http://www.tradesphere.us/
Can thoroughly recommend it..
Hi Osho,
Look at the Eurostoxx. Best index to start on IMHO.
If you want more details look at:
www.eurostoxx50.co.uk
Look at the Eurostoxx. Best index to start on IMHO.
If you want more details look at:
www.eurostoxx50.co.uk
osho67 - why is it that if you are not succeeding with spreadbets you think that you will be profitable with futures? The disadvantages of SB's (bias, wide spreads etc) are well documented elsewhere on this board, but they do have one very valuable plus - you can trade in small size - as little at a few p per point on the ftse 100 index for instance. This won't make you rich, but it won't make you poor either, and will enable you to trade actively, and without fear of losing large amounts, whilst you are developing a system that works. This will inevitably involve trading a system that doesn't work to begin with. If you try to do it with the ftse100 future at a minimum of £10 per point per contract, you will need very deep pockets to fund your learning. If you get it right with spread bets, and you want to increase size because you want larger profits, then that is the time to change to futures. But until you can win consistently with small SB's, my advice is to leave futures alone!
osho67,
Spreadbetting IS trading futures. The only differences are:
1. with spreadbetting you pay your commission through a wider spread and with a direct broker you pay a fixed commission per trade, and
2. with spreadbetting you can change your bet size down to £1 per point (or less with some companies) whereas with a direct access broker you have to trade whole multiples of a contract (so for the FTSE it is equivalent to £10/point, with the S&P emini is is $5/point).
Stick to spreadbetting for now. It is the cheapest way to lose money.
cheers
Spreadbetting IS trading futures. The only differences are:
1. with spreadbetting you pay your commission through a wider spread and with a direct broker you pay a fixed commission per trade, and
2. with spreadbetting you can change your bet size down to £1 per point (or less with some companies) whereas with a direct access broker you have to trade whole multiples of a contract (so for the FTSE it is equivalent to £10/point, with the S&P emini is is $5/point).
Stick to spreadbetting for now. It is the cheapest way to lose money.
cheers
Mr. Charts
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Spreadbetting is NOT trading futures. You are trading a skewed version run by bookmakers.
The SB spread is much more than on the real market, it is NOT equivalent to commission and fees combined.
Also the emini S&P is NOT $5/point it is $50/point ($20/point on nasdaq emini).
I trade US shares and eminis for a living - my comments are facts, not opinions - no offence intended to any poster.
The SB spread is much more than on the real market, it is NOT equivalent to commission and fees combined.
Also the emini S&P is NOT $5/point it is $50/point ($20/point on nasdaq emini).
I trade US shares and eminis for a living - my comments are facts, not opinions - no offence intended to any poster.
Just one humble opinion....
I notice that (virtually) everyone on these boards advocates the trading of Index Futures. Now, I can see that the reasons for this are pretty obvious - people are familiar with shares and understand the concept of indices, they're quoted on the 9o'clock news everynight etc etc.
My question/point is why are you all so focussed on Index futures when your profiles and resources mean that the volatility in these contracts could wipe out your whole account ...
Must you trade things that are familiar because it makes you feel comfortable or should you be trading other products that are more suited to your profile (and pocket).
The most liquid Futures contracts in the world are Interest Rate based - Bunds, T-Bonds, Eurodollars, Euribor.
These products are available on pats/IB etc just as the FTSE and the Eurostoxx.
I may be speaking out of turn but if it goes up and down, has a chart and sufficient liquidity would it not be better to trade Bobl for example where you can learn to trade in slightly more comfortable ranges (the bund and bobl chart nicely).
I doubt I'll change any newcomers opinion with these funny named contracts but some of you old timers out there may be interested to take a look...
When I get round to it, I'll start a Bund thread and try to post levels up from time to time.. it's worth a look.
I notice that (virtually) everyone on these boards advocates the trading of Index Futures. Now, I can see that the reasons for this are pretty obvious - people are familiar with shares and understand the concept of indices, they're quoted on the 9o'clock news everynight etc etc.
My question/point is why are you all so focussed on Index futures when your profiles and resources mean that the volatility in these contracts could wipe out your whole account ...
Must you trade things that are familiar because it makes you feel comfortable or should you be trading other products that are more suited to your profile (and pocket).
The most liquid Futures contracts in the world are Interest Rate based - Bunds, T-Bonds, Eurodollars, Euribor.
These products are available on pats/IB etc just as the FTSE and the Eurostoxx.
I may be speaking out of turn but if it goes up and down, has a chart and sufficient liquidity would it not be better to trade Bobl for example where you can learn to trade in slightly more comfortable ranges (the bund and bobl chart nicely).
I doubt I'll change any newcomers opinion with these funny named contracts but some of you old timers out there may be interested to take a look...
When I get round to it, I'll start a Bund thread and try to post levels up from time to time.. it's worth a look.
neil
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Heretic Halo
Advocate trading instruments other than Indicies - tut tut. The Witchfinder General would track you down for such heresy
Seriously though - It's a great idea if this board has a diverse range of trading instruments and their accompanying charts and methods of trading set out for all to see and comment upon.
OK Halo - I for one accept your offer to post charts etc of your preferred financial instrument.
Go for it.
Advocate trading instruments other than Indicies - tut tut. The Witchfinder General would track you down for such heresy
Seriously though - It's a great idea if this board has a diverse range of trading instruments and their accompanying charts and methods of trading set out for all to see and comment upon.
OK Halo - I for one accept your offer to post charts etc of your preferred financial instrument.
Go for it.
Mr Charts,
Spreadbetting IS trading futures. There is no such thing as spreadbet bias - it is an urban myth. Spreadbet prices are NOT skewed. If you think they are then post an example. If I compare D4F futures prices to the real futures prices then they are exactly the same, tick for tick. Despite repeated requests over many months no-one has managed to demonstrate a single example of spreadbet bias or skewing of spreadbet prices away from the futures price. If you can show bias then that is great - because then we can make free money arbitraging them.
Of course the SB spread is greater than the market - that's how they make their money. The relative amounts you pay to a spreadbetter vs. a direct access broker vary depending on how much money you trade with. If, for instance, you do £10/point on the FTSE then the round trip commission with D4F is equivalent of £20 (assuming a 1 point market spread - 3 point D4F spread), whereas with IB it is £3.40. IB wins. However, if you only do £1 per point then the D4F equivalent commission is only £2. Of course, you can't do this with IB, which is one of the reasons to use spreadbetters over direct access brokers.
$5/$50 per point is a question of terminology - 'handles' vs. 'points'. IB is $50 per handle. D4F split each handle into 10 points. [edit - just realised I'm comparing two slightly different things here. SB companies use the full S&P future, which has an equivalent contract price of $250 per handle. I don't think any SB company offers the emini]
Don't worry. I'm not easily offended.
Spreadbetting IS trading futures. There is no such thing as spreadbet bias - it is an urban myth. Spreadbet prices are NOT skewed. If you think they are then post an example. If I compare D4F futures prices to the real futures prices then they are exactly the same, tick for tick. Despite repeated requests over many months no-one has managed to demonstrate a single example of spreadbet bias or skewing of spreadbet prices away from the futures price. If you can show bias then that is great - because then we can make free money arbitraging them.
Of course the SB spread is greater than the market - that's how they make their money. The relative amounts you pay to a spreadbetter vs. a direct access broker vary depending on how much money you trade with. If, for instance, you do £10/point on the FTSE then the round trip commission with D4F is equivalent of £20 (assuming a 1 point market spread - 3 point D4F spread), whereas with IB it is £3.40. IB wins. However, if you only do £1 per point then the D4F equivalent commission is only £2. Of course, you can't do this with IB, which is one of the reasons to use spreadbetters over direct access brokers.
$5/$50 per point is a question of terminology - 'handles' vs. 'points'. IB is $50 per handle. D4F split each handle into 10 points. [edit - just realised I'm comparing two slightly different things here. SB companies use the full S&P future, which has an equivalent contract price of $250 per handle. I don't think any SB company offers the emini]
Don't worry. I'm not easily offended.
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cassiopeia
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mmillar
Yesterday JT posted a FTSE100 P&F chart comparing futures and DFF prices on one of the P&F threads these are distinctly different (in terms of movement), so how can you explain these differences considering the spread is fixed? You will need to adjust for the fixed differences in prices, obviously it is the movement which is important.
The only significant advantage I can see in spread betting is the tax treatment. Clearly futures are better up to your CGT allowance and possibly through the first few tax bands but after that can you justify 40% tax for the tighter spreads? The answer is usually yes for daytrading but no for longer term trades. Perhaps the way around this is to move abroad or set up a business, although the last time I enquired about the latter method an accountant thought it was not worth the trouble.
I hear the argument about using Spreadbetting for small bet sizes but this does not introduce the stress of using serious amounts of money, you could say betting in small sizes is not much more realistic than paper trading. Perhaps, it is more of a halfway house for training purposes only, but looking at the difference in JTs P&F chart, I am not sure if the two can be compared directly.
Yesterday JT posted a FTSE100 P&F chart comparing futures and DFF prices on one of the P&F threads these are distinctly different (in terms of movement), so how can you explain these differences considering the spread is fixed? You will need to adjust for the fixed differences in prices, obviously it is the movement which is important.
The only significant advantage I can see in spread betting is the tax treatment. Clearly futures are better up to your CGT allowance and possibly through the first few tax bands but after that can you justify 40% tax for the tighter spreads? The answer is usually yes for daytrading but no for longer term trades. Perhaps the way around this is to move abroad or set up a business, although the last time I enquired about the latter method an accountant thought it was not worth the trouble.
I hear the argument about using Spreadbetting for small bet sizes but this does not introduce the stress of using serious amounts of money, you could say betting in small sizes is not much more realistic than paper trading. Perhaps, it is more of a halfway house for training purposes only, but looking at the difference in JTs P&F chart, I am not sure if the two can be compared directly.
GreyingSurfer
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The real bias on SBs is between the cash bet and the index. I've never been able to find much sign of bias between the futures and futures SB. However, the cash index SBs are frequently highly biased. The spread is indeed fixed (in general, though I've know D4F widen it by 1 or 2 points when there's a lot of volatility), but D4F routinely move the mid bet price relative to the cash, sometimes to the extent that the actual index value is outside the bid/ask spread.
None of that is very surprising, the cash index is not a real instrument, so they can't follow it exactly and in practice they have little choice but to synthesise it from futures data, and in fact the short term moves of the cash index SBs tend to follow the futures more closely than the index (allowing for an offset).
Of course the real advantage of futures over SBs is the spread, SBs are a waste of money if you are trading a real system for real money. However, I agree entirely that they are an excellent route way for trialing systems with low risk. Its perfectly true that with smaller risk the stress is different, and that may affect your trading, but that's only one aspect of trading. There's a good case for trying to separate some of the factors and get some right then move onto getting the rest right, rather than trying to do it all at once (and risk getting wipped out in the process)
None of that is very surprising, the cash index is not a real instrument, so they can't follow it exactly and in practice they have little choice but to synthesise it from futures data, and in fact the short term moves of the cash index SBs tend to follow the futures more closely than the index (allowing for an offset).
Of course the real advantage of futures over SBs is the spread, SBs are a waste of money if you are trading a real system for real money. However, I agree entirely that they are an excellent route way for trialing systems with low risk. Its perfectly true that with smaller risk the stress is different, and that may affect your trading, but that's only one aspect of trading. There's a good case for trying to separate some of the factors and get some right then move onto getting the rest right, rather than trying to do it all at once (and risk getting wipped out in the process)
Newtron Bomb
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Halo
Would be interested to read something on T-bonds been looking at them recently along with some currencies so would be interested to exchange ideas
An SB view
I have been very interested to read peoples views re SB and the consistent difficulties people have had trading via this method. I am assuming that people have had difficulties day trading this way which does have its difficulties but also advantages (as they are mentioned elsewhere no need here)
Some of the things that people leave out about SB have in my opinion been a vital key to successfully trading with SB.
A quick recap as to the most important thing with a business is location location location. So why should market selection (location) be not be any different to benefit from SB trading. For me day trading index futures is my preferred style of trading. With the method of selecting pos trades I use, the FTSE index is not viable because it does not give me the rewards I want for the risk... and more importantly it does not have a regular high low range that is wide enough to benefit me through a SB company. For this reason I have chosen the Ibex because even when it is in a narrow range I can still limit losses considerably, break even or make a small profit. The other markets which would be viable would be the Dow but I don’t trade that simply because I like my early finish and for no other reason. I do however take my guidance for cross-market checking from the FTSE, DAX, and then the Dow and min S&P when the US opens. (just because I don’t trade them doesn’t mean i don’t closely follow them)
My point, if it was not too clear, is that if you are not happy SB trading with, for example, the FTSE then look for a market that will give you the rewards you want with your strategy through an SB company. Having a Broker account may not be the answer to making money, having a strat that you are happy with instead of blaming a SB Co. for your mistakes.
Additionally, I follow my strat on my preferred markets so when the FTSE or dow consistently make more returns I will consider changing the market i trade. Like a shopkeeper I will try to have location that is profitable. Back testing, research and constant monitoring helps me to do this.
Location, location, location.
It seems that individuals like to blame something else like the SB Co's for them not being able to make money in the markets. Most trading strategies work its people’s inability to be able to execute their strat that could be one cause for losses. With any business you will not make an overnight success. You also need to constantly monitor and review what you are doing; this is called a business plan. If you can see that one aspect of your trading strat is not working ie the ability to execute it successful through SB when it worked successfully on the charts then you should maybe look to see what market, stock, bonds etc it will work successfully on through SB co.s
There is some truth in the phrase "if you cant make money spreadbeting, then what makes you think trading futures will?"
I like to live by the phrase
"Bring me a solution, not a problem"
I hope this stirs up some alternative views about spreadbetting and trading generally. "Location" seems to be an overlooked concept as are many aspects, which I consider to be important to my style of trading.
As always this is my opinion, yours will be completely
different
Would be interested to read something on T-bonds been looking at them recently along with some currencies so would be interested to exchange ideas
An SB view
I have been very interested to read peoples views re SB and the consistent difficulties people have had trading via this method. I am assuming that people have had difficulties day trading this way which does have its difficulties but also advantages (as they are mentioned elsewhere no need here)
Some of the things that people leave out about SB have in my opinion been a vital key to successfully trading with SB.
A quick recap as to the most important thing with a business is location location location. So why should market selection (location) be not be any different to benefit from SB trading. For me day trading index futures is my preferred style of trading. With the method of selecting pos trades I use, the FTSE index is not viable because it does not give me the rewards I want for the risk... and more importantly it does not have a regular high low range that is wide enough to benefit me through a SB company. For this reason I have chosen the Ibex because even when it is in a narrow range I can still limit losses considerably, break even or make a small profit. The other markets which would be viable would be the Dow but I don’t trade that simply because I like my early finish and for no other reason. I do however take my guidance for cross-market checking from the FTSE, DAX, and then the Dow and min S&P when the US opens. (just because I don’t trade them doesn’t mean i don’t closely follow them)
My point, if it was not too clear, is that if you are not happy SB trading with, for example, the FTSE then look for a market that will give you the rewards you want with your strategy through an SB company. Having a Broker account may not be the answer to making money, having a strat that you are happy with instead of blaming a SB Co. for your mistakes.
Additionally, I follow my strat on my preferred markets so when the FTSE or dow consistently make more returns I will consider changing the market i trade. Like a shopkeeper I will try to have location that is profitable. Back testing, research and constant monitoring helps me to do this.
Location, location, location.
It seems that individuals like to blame something else like the SB Co's for them not being able to make money in the markets. Most trading strategies work its people’s inability to be able to execute their strat that could be one cause for losses. With any business you will not make an overnight success. You also need to constantly monitor and review what you are doing; this is called a business plan. If you can see that one aspect of your trading strat is not working ie the ability to execute it successful through SB when it worked successfully on the charts then you should maybe look to see what market, stock, bonds etc it will work successfully on through SB co.s
There is some truth in the phrase "if you cant make money spreadbeting, then what makes you think trading futures will?"
I like to live by the phrase
"Bring me a solution, not a problem"
I hope this stirs up some alternative views about spreadbetting and trading generally. "Location" seems to be an overlooked concept as are many aspects, which I consider to be important to my style of trading.
As always this is my opinion, yours will be completely
different
cassiopeia - JonnyT's P&F chart shows nothing of the sort. Phlebas has previously provided an excellent explanation of why P&F charts can produce totally different outputs with virtually the same inputs. http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=4757&perpage=30&pagenumber=1
GreyingSurfer – As you acknowledge, ‘cash’ bets are not the same as the ‘real’ index, nor are they supposed to be. But D4F (or any other SB) don’t ‘move the mid bet price relative to the cash’ – the future moves and the SB ‘cash’ price moves with it. If the future goes up by 10, then so does the ‘cash’. If the future goes down by 20, then so does the ‘cash’.
SB ‘cash’ bets are just daily futures bets. They take the standard quarterly futures price, remove it’s time value, and leave you with a ‘cash’ price. The difference between the quarterly futures price and the ‘cash’ price is called ‘fair value’, and is fixed every day.
GreyingSurfer – As you acknowledge, ‘cash’ bets are not the same as the ‘real’ index, nor are they supposed to be. But D4F (or any other SB) don’t ‘move the mid bet price relative to the cash’ – the future moves and the SB ‘cash’ price moves with it. If the future goes up by 10, then so does the ‘cash’. If the future goes down by 20, then so does the ‘cash’.
SB ‘cash’ bets are just daily futures bets. They take the standard quarterly futures price, remove it’s time value, and leave you with a ‘cash’ price. The difference between the quarterly futures price and the ‘cash’ price is called ‘fair value’, and is fixed every day.
