How do you define a trend? And....

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Easy, peasy You just make an assumption from what you've seen on the left. When your assumption plays out, you win. When it doesn't you lose (but don't lose too much.

True, but you can also make that valuable MM decision without looking at the left side of the chart. You can make that decision by looking outside your window.

Does the left side of the chart give us more valuable information than what the looking outside the window can give?

I know it sound a bit extreme but.........just a thought.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

True, but you can also make that valuable MM decision without looking at the left side of the chart. You can make that decision by looking outside your window.

Does the left side of the chart give us more valuable information than what the looking outside the window can give?

I know it sound a bit extreme but.........just a thought.

Hi Mike,

In short, of course. Otherwise none of us would look at charts at all.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Hi Mike,

In short, of course. Otherwise none of us would look at charts at all.

That is why 95% of traders lose their money?

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

And this what happened to my beautiful description of my H&S + retracement 0.88+
ABCD reversal pattern + fibo confluence.

Just a matter of time before stopped out.

And not only that, I have to wait hours just to lose money.

Is it possible that all the knowledge that we have accumulated is all BS? Just a thought.

 

[barjon]

True, but you can also make that valuable MM decision without looking at the left side of the chart. You can make that decision by looking outside your window.

Does the left side of the chart give us more valuable information than what the looking outside the window can give?

I know it sound a bit extreme but.........just a thought.

Aye, I suppose there are a few very clever fellows who can paint the blank side of the chart with precision, but I'm not one of them. I just make assumptions and rely on my trade and money management to keep me on the right side. They, after all, are the only things I can control.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

That is why 95% of traders lose their money?

Hi Mike,

Although covered many times over this is the way of life. If I win an instruction from my line of work or buy a property below market value or win a trade set-up then I am not creating anything, just taking it from someone else. It simply depends on the price.

Trading is like most other forms of financial transactions in the sense that someone has to lose for someone to win. The world will never be true win win, just a satisfactory exchange - although this could be disputed. We buy our trainers/shoes at £80 even though we know they are put together by someone in a 3rd world country for pennies. Look at their lifestyle compared to ours, we are the real winners here even though we are paying far more than they cost to make. There are also many hands these will go through for profit (or loss) before ending up in ours. It simply depends on ones own perceptions and whether they will make good use or money out of the said item/stock.

Cheers,

Lee Shepherd

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Hi Mike,

Although covered many times over this is the way of life. If I win an instruction from my line of work or buy a property below market value or win a trade set-up then I am not creating anything, just taking it from someone else. It simply depends on the price.

Trading is like most other forms of financial transactions in the sense that someone has to lose for someone to win. The world will never be true win win, just a satisfactory exchange - although this could be disputed. We buy our trainers/shoes at £80 even though we know they are put together by someone in a 3rd world country for pennies. Look at their lifestyle compared to ours, we are the real winners here even though we are paying far more than they cost to make. There are also many hands these will go through for profit (or loss) before ending up in ours. It simply depends on ones own perceptions and whether they will make good use or money out of the said item/stock.

Cheers,

Lee Shepherd

Lee

I agree with you.

I am aware that when I take money home, I am not taken money out of the market but I am taken money out of people that know less than I do or less educated in the trading field.

I find value in this community when each of us share personal individual perception,based on own experience and not based on somebody else "academic" experience. (classical trading books and so on)

I am only trying to tell what I see and I am not worried to share, knowing that be able to trade at a certain level cannot be borrowed, but nevertheless....

My point is that there is a lot of BS around and until once will not be able to deal with what it needs to be dealt with, he/she will be surrounded by BS.

Now I let you continue, it is Saturday morning here. Have a nice Weekend.

Mike

 

[darktone]

This is the 1 minutes chart: Is the overall trend up? not for what I see.

If I do not look at the bigger TF to guide me to tell me that the overall trend is up, I could have made two winning trades going short (see arrows) because the trend really was down until otherwise, of course the timing for entry in smaller TF is crucial.

Through my window eur/usd daily has been up for a couple of days. Imo it makes sense to play longs only.

 

[darktone]

Is it possible that all the knowledge that we have accumulated is all BS? Just a thought.

Thats kinda how i see it theses days. :|.

 

[Splitlink]

Not all of it, but IMO, if someone tells you something, you should be able to understand it. All this is very simple -- the difficult part is within our mental makeups. You will do something that I don't like the look of and vice versa. It is our interpretation of what we see and know. That includes all the BS news and opinions of economists in the media. They cause most of the red herrings that make us wrong.

Take the death of the Euro. It is being talked into its death throes. It has to be shorted, doesn't it? Everyone tells us so. They could well be right but when will that happen? Might not happen for months but someone is short of it and they want everyone else to short it, too, so that it goes lower.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Easy, peasy You just make an assumption from what you've seen on the left. When your assumption plays out, you win. When it doesn't you lose (but don't lose too much.

It's not easy peasy unless you can show a statement. If you assume, ie toss a coin, to choose the direction, you are doing nothing more than gambling. No amount of MM will save you from gambling ultimately. I happen to believe what is happening here and now is an important clue to the forward trend. The past trend might clue up on whether we are in extended time play for the previous trend.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Is it possible that all the knowledge that we have accumulated is all BS? Just a thought.

Not all, but most are bolt on BS. There is proven fundamental scientific truth to the market. But, it's buried so deep down in BS that most people can no longer see it even if they try very hard. The market is actually very simple and in some ways very predictable, even with the, sometimes easy to read, manipulation plays on top. The fundamental characteristics of the market is described in one of the videos in my learning to trade from youtube thread. I am not going to say which or I would be giving away the money maker for nothing.

 

[barjon]

It's not easy peasy unless you can show a statement. If you assume, ie toss a coin, to choose the direction, you are doing nothing more than gambling. No amount of MM will save you from gambling ultimately. I happen to believe what is happening here and now is an important clue to the forward trend. The past trend might clue up on whether we are in extended play for the previous trend.

Joe,

Blimey, a statement - for trend determination!! Whatever next, you've got statements on the brain

I never said "coin toss" - I said assumption. That's all you do as a trader since no-one knows for certain how price will develop. If your assumption is well based you'll probably find it'll play out more often than not.

If you call that gambling then I'm happy to be a gambler - and, no, I'm not going to post a statement to justify my happiness

jon

 

[darktone]

It's not easy peasy unless you can show a statement. If you assume, ie toss a coin, to choose the direction, you are doing nothing more than gambling. No amount of MM will save you from gambling ultimately. I happen to believe what is happening here and now is an important clue to the forward trend. The past trend might clue up on whether we are in extended time play for the previous trend.

It can be this easy imo joe, its us thats makes it difficult imo.
Trading is gambling, id go further and say that pretty much anything you do in life that involves some risk could be defined as gambling.
Heres another rinse your mouth out word! Hope! Most traders hate that one!

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I never said "coin toss" - I said assumption.

Yes, yes. I was saying the two things were the same. I reckon people need to go in with slightly more than just an assumption or they are doing nothing more than playing black or red, or tossing a coin.

no, I'm not going to post a statement to justify my happiness

I appointed myself the official statement checker. Naturally I ask for one. Is your happiness consistent, year in, year out, or just this year ?

 

[Walter Mitty]

BeginnerJoe, I like you Bud but kinell will you please stop asking for statements just accept we're all in an easily identifiable down trend when it comes to the old equity curve.:clap:

 

[barjon]

Is your happiness consistent, year in, year out, or just this year ?

I've been at it well over 30 years, Joe, and still got a smile on my face

 

[VielGeld]

Listen to Darktone, Joe. He knows what he's talking about. It really is that easy.

See it this way -- the more time you spend looking at your charts, the more some patterns just start standing out. They are predictable as well.

All it takes is the patience to keep looking at your charts every day for at least 6 months. You'll see the patterns eventually.

 

[darktone]

Just for joe. :drunk:

 

[darktone]

Listen to Darktone, Joe. He knows what he's talking about. It really is that easy.

See it this way -- the more time you spend looking at your charts, the more some patterns just start standing out. They are predictable as well.

All it takes is the patience to keep looking at your charts every day for at least 6 months. You'll see the patterns eventually.

Thanks, but i havent got a clue what im talking about! Trust me! :cheesy: