Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 30th December 2021.

Market Update – December 30 – End-of-year trading is not kind to Treasury bulls.


End-of-year trading was not kind to Treasury bulls as unwinding of the month’s Omicron inspired haven purchases were unwound. The break of key technicals and very thin liquidity conditions exacerbated the climb in rates.

  • The USD (USDIndex 96.37) was supported. US Yields sold off after key technical levels were breached and the 7-year auction was poorly subscribed. The 10-year penetrated the 50-day moving average at 1.526% and the 30-year pierced the 100-day moving average at 1.938%, which saw the yields rise to intraday peaks of 1.5548% and 1.9687%. following the auction results. The 2-year yield, meanwhile, was fractionally higher at 0.752%.
  • Equities -Broader indexes advanced to fresh all-time highs. The USA30 was up 0.25% to 36,488 and the USA500’s rose 0.14% to 4,793 – 70th new high of the year. The USA100 lagged with a -0.10% loss. The GER30 future is up 0.1%, the UK100 future down -0.1%.
  • USOil – at 75.80, bouncing within 75-77 area.
  • FX markets – Euro and Sterling dropped back against a largely stronger US Dollar. EURUSD is at 1.1315 and Cable at 1.3473. USDJPY breached 115.20.
Today – Germany is already on holiday again tomorrow, the UK extends the weekend through to Monday and volumes are likely to remain low today, although the calendar still has some interesting releases in Europe. Preliminary inflation data for Spain are due, the Swiss Kof indicator will also be released. US Weekly jobless claims highlight.



Biggest FX Mover @ (10:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.22%) pullback from 1.1398 highs to 1.1314. Fast MAs pointing downwards, RSI flattened though at 42 Stochastick are in OS area while MACD lines decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 3rd January 2022.

Market Update – January 3 – Front foot for the new year.


Welcome to 2022, Evergrande back in the headlines, having defaulted , shares have been suspended, (they fell 90% in 2021) awaiting “inside information”. TESLA beat delivery targets & more woes for the TRY as Inflation hits 19-year highs.

The 2021 close – S&P500 (+27%) , USDIndex +6.3%, 10-yr yields broke 1.5%, Oil & Gas (50% & 48% respectively, Coffee was the best performing commodity +70%, Gold lost –4%). European Banks gained +34%, US Treasuries lost -3% and the Chinese Tech & Property sector collapsed. Inflation (US 6.8% EZ 4.9%, UK 5.1% & Japan 0.1%), Energy & Food costs rallied. Crypto’s volatile & surged (BTC +60%), Meme Stocks monstrously volatile (GameStop +700% – as high as +2,500%) & AMC +1200% (up 3200% at one point). NFT’s arrived (Market Cap 2021 – $22Billion+ vs just $100 million in 2020)

  • USD (USDIndex 95.90) recovered from 2021 close at 95.50 zone. US stocks dipped into year end, & Yields also slipped. USOil & Gold both held on to healthy gains.
  • US Yields 10 yr traded to 1.51%
  • Equities – USA500 -12.55 (-0.26%) at 4766 NASDAQ -0.61%,
  • USOil – slipped from $76.00 but held onto $75.00 ahead of OPEC+ meeting tomorrow.
  • Gold – spiked to $1831 on the weaker USD, and holds at 1825
  • Bitcoin down to 47k
  • FX markets – EURUSD 1.1340, USDJPY holds over 115.00 & Cable holds over 1.3500.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -11 ticks, US futures are underperforming, while stock futures are higher in Europe and the US. Large parts of Asia were still on holiday today and in Europe, the U.K. remains shut for the extended New Year holiday. The calendar focuses on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, which are not expected to bring major revisions and confirm that virus developments have slowed the pace of expansion.

Today – Final Manu PMI’s from EZ – UK, US & Canada remained closed for New-Year



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.43%) Correcting Friday’s rally to 1.1385, trades down to 1.1336 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower but above 0 line. RSI 47 and falling, H1 ATR 0.00144 Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 4th January 2022.

Market Update – January 4 – USD & Tesla shine as Treasuries get hammered.


Treasuries were hammered to kick off 2022 action as bond bears were in full control, making this the worst start to a year since 2009. Sentiment remains positive, as markets continue to buy into the recovery story. Apple breached the $3 trillion market capitalization mark and TESLA shares rallied +13.5% after block buster deliveries. Sarah Raskin rumoured to be FED Vice Chair for Supervision, suggesting a tighter regime.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.30) rallied at US open from 95.50 lows. US stocks hit new all-time highs & Yields lept higher as US Treasuries were slaughtered. USOil dipped under $74.00 before recovering & Gold sank to $1800.
  • US Yields 10 yr rocked up to close at 1.62% and trade at 1.63% now
  • Equities – USA500 +30 (+0.26%) at 4766, NASDAQ +1.2%; APPL +2.5%, FB +4.01%, ABNB +3.75%, PFE -4.06%, USA500 FUTS now 4795.
  • USOil – slipped under $74.00 (rumours of 400k b/d production increase for Feb.) before recovering to $75.60 now ahead of OPEC+ meeting today.
  • Gold – spiked down under $1800 from $1831 on open and trades at $1805 now.
  • Bitcoin slipped again, down to 45,600, trades at 46,500 now.
  • FX markets – EURUSD under 1.1300 at 1.1285, USDJPY moves higher, testing 115.80, Cable back under key 1.3500 at 1.3470.
Overnight – Strong Asian Manu.PMI’s (led by China & JPY) suggest initial Omicron impact on Q4 may be limited. German Retail sales beat significantly (0.6% vs -0.2%)

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -14 ticks, underperforming versus US futures, although they are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.3% and 1.1% respectively, the latter outperforming in catch up trade, as markets returned from the extended holiday weekend. US futures are up 0.2 to 0.3% and it seems overall sentiment remains positive, as markets continue to buy into the recovery story, which is also underpinning a rise in yields.

Today – German Unemployment, UK Manufacturing PMI Final, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.43%) Formed a base at 82.85 yesterday rallied on risk-on mood to 83.50 MAs aligned higher MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 59 & rising, H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.76.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 5th January 2022.

Market Update – January 5 – Yields higher again, FED minutes in focus.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Treasuries continued under pressure as yields moved up supporting USD, Equities were mixed; Financials and Automaker’s (EV) rallied, US data (Jolts, & ISM Manu PMI’s) missed expectations, OPEC+ delivered production increase for February. Goldmans talked of $100k Bitcoin. US reported 1 million daily COVID cases, Israel says 4th dose effective at increasing antibodies, France discovers new variant with 46 mutations.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.30) holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the YEN in particular. US stocks (Dow & S&P) hit new all-time highs but Nasdaq lost -1.33%.
  • US Yields 10 yr rocked up to close at 1.668% trades at 1.64% now.
  • Equities – USA500 -3 (+0.06%) at 4793 Ford (new 20-yr high) +11.67%, GM +7.47% TSLA -4.18%, USA500 FUTS now 4780.
  • USOil – spiked over $77.00 trades at $76.75 now post OPEC+ big drawdown in private inventories –
  • Gold – holds over $1800 significantly at 1813 now.
  • Bitcoin holds over 45,000, trades at 46,400 now.
  • FX markets – EURUSD recovered back to 1.1300, USDJPY new-5-yr high at 116.30 now 116.00, Cable back over 1.3500 at 1.3530.
Overnight – Tech stock in particular were under pressure in Asia from stronger USD & higher US yields.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming, as stock markets started to correct from recent highs. Travel and tourism shares boosted indexes yesterday, but market sentiment started to turn overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.2%.

Today – EZ & US Composite/Services PMI (Final), US ADP, FOMC minutes



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.33%) Sank to 1.6540 earlier and has rallied to 1.6620, yesterday’s high breached 1.6660. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher, but below 0 line. RSI 57.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0020 Daily ATR 0.0120.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 6th January 2022.

Market Update – January 6 – Hawkish Fed – Rate hikes on the way.


‘A “very tight” job market and unabated inflation might require the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected and begin reducing its overall asset holdings as a second brake on the economy, US central bank policymakers said in their meeting last month.’ – Reuters

Stocks tanked, Yields spiked and the USD held firm as EM & commodity currencies sank.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.30) holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the commodity complex in particular. US stocks tanked (Dow & S&P) down -1% & -1.94% respectively with NASDAQ losing 522 points -3.34%
  • US Yields 10-yr rocked up to close at 1.70% trades higher again at 1.73% now.
  • Equities – USA500 -96 (-1.94%) at 4700 TSLA -5.35%, AT&T +2.22%. As value stocks gained and growth stocks were hit the hardest, USA500 FUTS now 4691.
  • USOil – spiked over $78.00 trades at $76.84 inventory drawdown not as big as expected and a big build in gasoline storage
  • Gold – down to $1800 sagain after test & rejection of 1830.
  • Bitcoin sinks under holds over 45,000, trades at 43,200 now.
  • FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1285, USDJPY off 5-yr highs under 116.00 at 155.90, Cable tested 1.3600 aback to test 1.3500 now.
Overnight – Chinese Services PMI’s & German Factory Orders both better than expected. Asian share followed US lower –

European Open – Risk-Off – The March 10-year Bund future is down -38 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. Overnight and mounting concern of an accelerating tightening schedule in the US has been adding to pressure on stock markets overnight. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently posting losses of -1.5% and -1.4% respectively and US futures are down -0.3-0.6% with the NASDAQ future underperforming as tech stocks continue to struggle.

Today – Preliminary German inflation data for December, Eurozone PPI, final UK Services PMI, US Weekly Claims, ISM Services PMI and US Factory Orders.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.10%) RISK OFF Fed inspired tank to Sank to 82.90 from 84.34 yesterday. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower & well below 0 line. RSI 16.06 and significantly OB, H1 ATR 0.1820 Daily ATR 0.8000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 7th January 2022.

Market Update – January 7 – Yields dominate sentiment.


Risk aversion recedes – Stocks stabilize but it’s all about the Yields & sharp rise in short-term 2-yr in particular. USD softer again, Oil rallies, Gold & BTC sink again. Key FED hawk Bullard, talked of actual rate hikes as early as March & that inflation will remain over 3% for all of 2022. Claims missed a tad at 207k vs 200k but remain in strong downtrend, but Services PMI’s missed significantly (62 vs. 67 & 69.1 prior). Another Chinese real estate developer (Shimao) missed bond payments.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.20) slips but holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the commodity complex in particular.
  • US Yields 10-yr rocked up AGAIN to close at 1.733% trades at 1.72% now.
  • Equities – USA500 -4.53 (-0.10%) at 4696 as value & cyclical stocks gained and growth stocks pressured. USA500 FUTS now 4700.
  • USOil – has spiked over $79.00 trades at $79.75 – 3 key drivers – (i) further unrest in Kazakhstan (Govt removed cap on fuel & heating oils on Jan 1 – prices have rocketed & Russia have sent troops! (ii) Supply cuts in Libya & shutdowns in Canada (iii) Tight inventories.
  • Gold – down under $1800 again to test support at $1788.
  • Bitcoin sinks to test next support at 42,000 now.
  • FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1300, USDJPY under 116.00 at 115.85, Cable back to 1.3545 from 1.3500.
Overnight – JPY data – weaker, German Industrial Production missed

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher as are US Treasury futures. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.04% and 0.16% respectively. Markets are waiting for key US payroll numbers in the afternoon, which will be an important piece of the puzzle for the increasingly hawkish Fed. In Europe the calendar is also pretty busy with trade and production numbers for Germany, consumer spending data for France and preliminary inflation numbers and the latest ESI economic sentiment reading for the Eurozone. Overall the data is likely to support the hawkish camp at the ECB and after Lagarde committed to keep net asset purchases going for most of this year, it will likely become clear that the ECB is falling behind the curve, as Omicron is unlikely to derail the global recovery.

Today – UK Construction PMI, EZ CPI (Flash), Economic Sentiment, US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Fed’s Barkin, Bostic & Daly.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.18%) Rallied from 1.8640 lows on Wednesday to 1.8940 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram lower but well above 0 line. RSI 73 OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.00198 Daily ATR 0.01000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 10th January 2022.

Market Update – January 10 – Cautiousness ahead of US CPI.


Inflation worries and the Fed’s hawkishness prompted buying in shares like banks that usually perform well in a high interest rate environment, while high-growth stocks were routed. Share markets made cautious gains so far today as US jobs report giving the greenlight to investors to counted down to another US inflation reading that could well set the seal on an early rate hike from the Federal Reserve, lifting bond yields yet further. Going from uber-accommodation in November liftoff as soon as March, multiple rate hikes in 2022, and subsequent balance sheet shrinkage in a matter of two months spiked Treasury yields. Volatility in stocks jumped as investors repriced for the new conditions.

The explosion in coronavirus cases globally also threatens to crimp consumer spending and growth just as the Fed is considering turning off the liquidity spigots, tough timing for markets addicted to endless cheap money. – Reuters

  • USD (USDIndex 96.20) slips but holds gains supported by higher yields – 95.88 currently.
  • US Yields 10-yr is coming off of its worst week in years thanks to the FOMC’s pivot to the hawkish side, and as government and corporate supply picks up. Key technical levels were also broken to exacerbate the selloff. It will be hard pressed to rally unless there are signs Omicron will take more of a toll on growth than currently anticipated, suggesting the FOMC will not need to boost rates as aggressively as feared.
  • Equities – US equities closing in the red. USA100 had struggled at the end of last week, but frayed nerves have started to calm – for now – USA100 at 15664. USA500 at 50DMA below 4700. Tech stocks in Hong Kong rebounded, which saw the Hang Seng lifting 0.8%. Stock markets across Asia traded mixed, in quiet trade, with Japan on holiday today.
  • USOil – held firm,sustaining last week’s gains at 78.70
  • Gold – at $1794.
  • FX markets – EURUSD corrected to 1.1341 amid broader pressure on the Euro, USDJPY rebounded to 115.75, Cable steady at 2-month high at 1.3590.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -13 ticks, US futures are posting similar losses, as yields continue to rise against the background of rising inflation and easing virus concerns. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.2%, as stock market sentiment improved at the start of the week.

Today – Central bank outlooks and virus developments will remain the focus of attention this week, with investors likely to keep a close eye on upcoming Fedspeak. For today though the calendar is pretty light on both sides of the Atlantic with only Eurozone unemployment and US Wholesale inventories are scheduled.



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) CADCHF (+0.33%) Rallied to 0.7289 extending to Decmber’s highs. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram well above 0 line. RSI 75 OB but still rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 11th January 2022.

Market Update – January 11 – Directionless Dollar Ahead of Powell.

dollar
Some of the more intense selling pressure seen so far in 2022 took a break this morning. Indeed, though Wall Street opened with sharp declines, the major indexes rebounded through the afternoon and the USA100 managed a modest 0.05% gain. The USA500 was -0.14% lower at the end of the day, while the USA30 lost -0.45%. Bonds traded mixed, as Treasury yields corrected slightly after the move higher in the wake of stronger than expected data yesterday.

Fed remarks: Little insight with no mention of the policy plans. Powell reiterated the economy is expanding at its fastest pace in many years and the labor market is strong, while facing “persistent supply and demand imbalances” with the resulting jump in inflation taking its toll. That outlook was the underpinning for the shift toward tightening policy sooner than later. He also stressed the Fed will use its tools to support the economy and the labor market.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.82) slips from yesterday’s 96.22 high from temporary yields support.
  • Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates four times this year, one more than previously forecast.
  • US Yields 10-yr rose to an almost 2-year high above 1.8% overnight, but provided only muted support for the Greenback.- 1.759% currently.
  • Today, treasuries cheapened further with the front end underperforming as more hawkish Fed bets were made on the heels of Goldman Sachs’ outlook. The advent of Chair Powell’s Senate Banking Committee hearing today has also added to the weakness amid uncertainties whether he would push back against the markets’ views on the FOMC and concomitant selloff. The upcoming $52 bln 3-year auction also weighed.
  • Equities – in the red, with the USA100 leading the way USA100 at 15638. Topix and JPN225 lost -0.4% and -0.9%, the ASX corrected -0.8%, and mainland China bourses are also in the red, while the Hang Seng essentially moved sideways. GER30 and UK100 futures, however, are up 0.3%.
  • USOil – up at 78.40.
  • Gold – north for a 3rd day – at $1808.
  • FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1334, USDJPY at 115.27, Cable steady at 1.3595.
European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, underperforming versus Treasury futures. In cash markets US bonds have also found a footing after being pressured by stronger than expected data yesterday. The ECB is struggling to assure consumers that they are not blind to the uptick in inflation, although the central bank risks falling behind the curve.

Today – Fed Chair Powell’s testimony headlines today. Along with Powell, there is also Fedspeak from Mester and George (Bullard’s discussion on policy and the economy was postponed). The only data on tap is the NFIB small business optimism index. Wednesday brings the main event, CPI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.33%) Rebounded to 91.13 reversing nearly half of this week’s losses. MAs currently flat, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line. RSI 51, Stochastics started rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 12th January 2022.

Market Update – January 12 – Not as hawkish as priced in.


Fed Powell, Mester and George, along with a 3-year auction added to the action in the markets. This saw yields pick up, and equities retreat. Commodities also caught a boost and oil touched pre-Omicron highs in Asia.

Powell confirmed the shift to normalization and stressed the Fed will fight inflation aggressively, but also indicated liquidity would not be pulled back anytime soon.

“FOMC would use its tool to ensure price pressures would not become entrenched, and would act aggressively if necessary.”.Fed Chair Powell said inflation could last into mid-2022 , while the Committee has not made any decisions on the timing of raising rates and allowing the balance sheet to shrink. He promised more clarity on that is coming soon.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.50) – 6-weeks low on less hawkish Powell than expected, while data indicate more room for policy easing in China. –China CPI inflation slowed to 1.5% y/y in December from 2.3% y/y.
  • Treasury yields are richer, with the US Yields 10-yr closing at 1.745%, and though the 2-year was only fractionally lower at 0.895%, it has managed to hold below the 0.90% level since March 2, 2020.
  • Equities – a drop in rates, saw yields up and helped underpin Wall Street where the USA100 outperformed with a 1.4% gain for the day, its best since December 21. The USA500 rallied 0.92%, and the USA30 was up 0.5%. JPN225 rose about 2%. Equities moved higher in Japan and Australia, with tech leading the rise once again.
  • BoJ’s Kuroda: “Japan’s inflation is set to accelerate gradually, and the Japanese economy is picking up as a trend.“
  • Boeing and Salesforce.com led the USA30, while Illumina topped the USA500, up 14% after giving better 2022 revenue guidance. The energy sector rallied 3%, while utilities were down 1%.
  • USOil – up at 81.06 & UKOIL at 83.98.
  • Gold -spiked to $1823.
  • BTC steady close to at $40,000 support.
  • FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1360, USDJPY steady at 115.30, Cable at 2-month high at 1.3645. – UK overcoming a wave of COVID-19 cases led by Omicron & priced in a nearly 80% chance of BoE rate hike in February.
European Open: The GER30 future is up 0.3%, the UK100 future 0.6%, as markets remain in full risk on mood ahead of key US inflation data. Fed Chairman Powell yesterday seemed to provide some reassurance by sticking to the script. That will likely bring the German 10-year rate closer to lifting out of negative territory, as the ECB is still trying to reassure consumers that it is still committed to keeping inflation at bay, while at the same time trying to keep spreads in. A difficult balancing act that will get harder in the coming months.

Today – The December CPI headlines today. Results in line with forecasts would leave annual rates at a 7.0% y/y pace for the headline, a fresh 39-year high and besting that set in November at 6.8% y/y, and 5.4% y/y for the core versus 4.9% y/y, and a new 30-year high.



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) USDCAD (-0.10%) Pullback to 1.4268 extending to November’s low area. Fast MAs keep sliding lower, MACD signal line & histogram turned below 0 line. RSI 38 and sloping lower, Stochastics entered OS area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 13th January 2022.

Market Update – January 13.


Trading was lackluster on Wednesday and consolidative mid-week as the markets equilibrate to the new reality with the FOMC on the move to normalize. Sentiment has turned cautious again and Asian equity markets are narrowly mixed at the moment, with indices struggling to add to yesterday’s gain. Chinese tech stocks retreated after jumping yesterday and troubles at China’s property firms have come back in focus ahead of a wave of key payments.

  • USD (USDIndex 94.80) – dips breaking the 2-months range – inflation ( the biggest jump since June 1982) didnt surprise and kept intact expectations for the Fed’s tapering or timeline for the first rate rise as early as March.
  • US Yields 10-yr at 1.74%.
  • Chinese property developer Sunac China Holdings Ltd plans to raise HK$4.52 billion ($580.09 million) from a share sale for repayment of loans and general corporate purposes
  • Real estate developers extend declines in afternoon trading amid a Bloomberg report that several of the nation’s biggest banks have become more selective about funding real estate projects by local government financing vehicles.
    Equities -Topix and JPN225 meanwhile are down -0.7% and -1% respectively. The ASX managed to move up 0.5%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -0.07% and -1.4% respectively
  • USOil – slips at 81.58 from 82.40 highs, after EIA inventory data showed fuel demand has taken a hit from Omicron.
  • Gold -steady above $1820, as the US dollar and Treasury yields retreated after inflation data reinforced the need for quicker interest rate hikes.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologised for attending a party in the Downing Street garden during a coronavirus lockdown.
  • FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1449, USDJPY steady at 115.30, Cable at 1.3711,the pound generally supported amid signs that PM Johnson managed to survive yet another scandal.
European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is down -8 ticks, US futures are also lower. In cash markets the 10-year Treasury has pared earlier gains and is unchanged on the day at 1.74% at the moment. Stocks mostly corrected in Asia, with the rally in tech stocks running out of steam after a cautious close higher on Wall Street yesterday. Central bank moves and virus developments remain in focus and while GER30 and UK100 futures are posting fractional gains, U.S. futures are broadly lower.

Today – The data calendar today bring December PPI and weekly jobless claims. There are some ECB speakers scheduled.



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.44%) extends above R1, to 0.6880 high. Fast MAs alighed higher, with MACD rising, RSI at 74 and stochastics sloping northwards.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 14th January 2022.

Market Update – January 14 – USD longs trimmed positions.


The market has well priced in elevated inflation and an all but assured March rate liftoff, hence taking in stride a record clip in core PPI at 8.3% y/y and the drop in continuing jobless claims to 1,559k, the lowest since before the pandemic. Markets trimmed long positions and deemed, for now, that several US rate hikes this year are fully priced in.

  • USD (USDIndex 94.73) – found a floor above 94.50.
  • US Yields 10-yr has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.72% overnight, as hawkish Fedspeak continued to fuel tightening speculation. – Fed Brainard acknowledged that she too could vote for a March rate hike.
  • The Bank of Korea added to the hawkish tone by hiking the key rate to 1.25% from 1.00% and signalling that more moves could be on the way. Bank of Japan is deliberating how it can start telegraphing an eventual rate hike. – Yen on bid.
  • China’s trade data showed a marked slowdown in both export and import growth.
  • Equities – tightening speculation has put pressure on stocks. GER30 and UK100 are down -0.4%. USA100 dropped -2.5%, JPN225 corrected -1.3%.
  • UK economy stronger than expected before Omicron. Monthly GDP data for November were a positive surprise, with a rise of 0.9% m/m that compensated somewhat for the disappointing October reading.
  • USOil – at 81.68 after 80.75 bottom, amid concerns on Chinese fuel demand & whether US government will act to cool oil prices.
  • Gold & Silver – best weekly rise since November – remains however below the key $1835 barrier.
  • FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1482, USDJPY down at 113.63, Cable at 1.3725.
European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is down -6 ticks, broadly in line with moves in Treasury futures, while both the Schatz and the 30-year futures outperformed. The UK already signalled that virus measures will be relaxed further in coming weeks, which will add to the arguments of the hawkish camp at the BoE.

Today –Headlining is the ECB Lagarde speech and US December retail sales report.





Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.40%) breaks below 20-day SMA at 82.60 (50-DMA). Fast MAs aligned lower, with MACD lines negatively configured, RSI at 36 but stochastics pointing higher suggesting correction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 17th January 2022.

Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds onto gains.


Big bank Earnings disappointed on Friday, the USD recovered from 8-week lows and Fedspeakers continued to worry about inflation as hawkish tones increased. Stocks recovered early losses, Yields moved up to close the week as Oil moved up and Gold moved down. China’s PBOC delivered the first rate cut in a while as signs of slow down persist and Covid cases once again spread.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.20) holds on to gains from Friday. Bouncing from 8-week lows under 94.60.
  • US Yields 10-yr moved higher again to close at 1.772%.
  • Equities – USA500 +3.82 (+0.08%) at 4662 as Financials weighed following Earnings from JPM (-6.15%) Blackrock (-2.19%) and WFC (+3.68) Tech & Energies lead recovery into long weekend. USA500 FUTS lower at 4652.
  • USOil – Spiked over $84.00 as markets look beyond Covid spikes with very tight supply.
  • Gold – settled at $1816 from a test of 1830 again. Now at $1822.
  • Bitcoin support once again at $42,000, Friday, back to 42,800 now.
  • FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1465, USDJPY now 114.40 at 115.85, Cable back to 1.33680.
Overnight – Chinese GDP and industrial production exceeded expectations, whilst retail sales disappointed. UK house price data from the Nationwide was strong. The Chairman of Credit Suisse has resigned due to Covid breaches.

Week Ahead A Bank of Japan meeting which concludes on Tuesday, UK inflation data on Wednesday and Australian jobs figures on Thursday. Earnings from GS, BAC, MS, P&G, Netflix

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -36 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures, which points to a further rise in yields across Europe. Stock market futures are trading mixed, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures posting gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while an 0.4% decline in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Central bank outlooks and inflation expectations remain in focus, the Fed is gearing up for a round of central bank hikes this year that will also impact the outlook for BoE and ECB amid hopes that the pandemic phase of Covid-19 will start to fade.

Today – Little data from Europe & All US markets closed for MLK Day.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.34%) Rallied from 90.50 lows on Friday to 91.37 (Fridays high) now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.121 Daily ATR 0.794.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 18th January 2022.

Market Update – January 18 – BOJ Stands Pat.


Asian markets weaker as BOJ stays put (-0.1% interest rate) with stimulus package intact, raises inflation target to 1.1% and growth to 3.8% for 2022. Kuroda: “Will ease monetary policy without hesitation as needed, there has been a notable improvement in the economy.” USD firmer, Yields moved up with US 2-yr over key 1.0%, 10-yr over 1.8%. Oil higher – Saudi’s retaliate, attacking Yemen and Gold holds at $1815.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.25) holds on to gains from Friday, pushing to 953.8 earlier.
  • US Yields 10-yr moved higher again and trades at 1.818%.
  • Equities – US closed yesterday. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4633.
  • USOil – Spiked over $84.70 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles unsettles sentiment.
  • Gold – holds at $1815 from a test of $1823.
  • Bitcoin another down day, tested to $41,600, back to 42,200 now.
  • FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1400, USDJPY now 114.80 tested 115.00 earlier, Cable back to test 200hr MA 1.3620, +20 pips after UK jobs data.
Overnight – UK Earnings in line at 4.2%, Unemployment (4.1%) and Claims better than expected. PBOC deputy governor says will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -19 ticks, Treasury futures are underperforming. Stocks across Asia struggled with the renewed rise in yields and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Inflation risks and central bank outlook will be dominating the discussion in coming months.

Today – German ZEW, Empire State Manu. Index & Earnings from Goldman Sachs. Day 2 of DAVOS (on-line).





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (again) (+0.34% again) Rallied all day over 91.73 (Thursdays high) and onto test 92.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 68 rising, H1 ATR 0.131 Daily ATR 0.804.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 19th January 2022.

Market Update – January 19 – Stocks tank, Yields higher, Inflation weighs.


Stock markets sank (Nasdaq -2.6% as the VIX pushed higher +5.22%). Financials and Pharma companies led the slide, USD firmer supported by high Yields – the main market driver. US 10-yr 1.85%, German 10-yr to May 2019 highs as Inflation in UK & Germany hits 30-year highs. Oil higher again, Gold continues to gyrate. Pressure on UK PM grows.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.65) holds on to gains.
  • US Yields 10-yr moved higher – closed at 1.865% & trades at 1.883%.
  • Equities – USA500 -85 (-1.84%) 4577 (GS -6.97%, BAC -3.44%, FB -4.0%, SONY -7.0%. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4539.
  • USOil – Spiked over $87.00 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles continues to unsettle sentiment.
  • Gold – holds at $1812 from a test of $1820 & spike to $1806.
  • Bitcoin tested to $42,400, back to 41,200 now.
  • FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1336, USDJPY now 114.40 tested 115.00 yesterday, Cable back to 1.3600, from 1.3570 lows yesterday.


Overnight – UK CPI – 2 ticks higher at 5.4% vs 5.2% CORE 3 ticks higher at 4.2%, RPI up to 7.5% from 7.1% & new 30-year highs. German CPI in line at 5.3% and HICP at 5.7%.

European Open – The 10-year Bund yield has lifted 2.4 bp to 0.002% in early trade with high readings for German and U.K. December CPI adding to pressure. Global equity markets are struggling with the sharp rise in yields and intensifying tightening expectations, leaving DAX and FTSE 100 futures down -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. The Euro Stoxx 50 has lost -0.7% so far and a -0.8% correction in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Pretty much the same picture as yesterday, with markets at risk of running way with tightening concerns, and central banks increasingly under pressure.

Today – Canadian CPI, IEA OMR, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, supply from Germany & the US. Earnings from Bank of America, MS, UnitedHealth. DAVOS continues.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.35%) Rallied from 3-day decline to 0.8455 to 0.8495 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & testing 0 line. RSI 56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0011 Daily ATR 0.0056.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 20th January 2022.

Market Update – January 20 – Equities weaker, Gold rallies, Yields cool.


Stock markets sank again (Nasdaq -1.15%) Financials and Tech companies led the slide, USD slipped as Yields – slide from highs, Oil higher again, Gold was asset of the day charged higher to $1842, supported by further hot Inflation data from Germany, UK and Canada and strong housing data from the US. China cut its mortgage rate lifting Asian markets (Nikkei +1.11%). Lagarde: ECB has reasons NOT to act as quickly as the FED. Biden increased the rhetoric over Russia & Ukraine predicting Russia would “make a move”. Johnson holds on in UK, for now.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.42) slips as Yields decline .
  • US Yields 10-yr moved higher to spike at 1.90% & trades at 1.85%.
  • Equities – USA500 -44 (-0.97%) 4532 – USA500 FUTS holds up at 4544.
  • USOil – Spiked to $87.97 and subsequently collapsed to 84.00 after Biden comments and ahead of inventories today.
  • Gold – charged to $1843 and holds $1838 now after inflation news and & Biden comments. A hold of 1830 is key.
  • Bitcoin back to test $42,400,
  • FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1360, USDJPY now 114.40 & Cable back to 1.3625.
Overnight – AUD JOBS better than expected, Unemployment 4.2% vs 4.6%, GERMAN PPI rocketed to 5.0% form 0.8%.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 5 ticks at 169.33, outperforming slightly versus US futures. The yield is up from the lows seen during the Asian part of the session though and especially for the short end, the trend higher will likely continue. The long end meanwhile should actually benefit from tightening steps as inflation continues to spike. DAX and FTSE 100 futures area posting gains of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively at the moment, and a 0.8% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher.

Today – Norges Bank & CBRT rate decisions, EZ CPI (final), ECB Minutes, US Claims, Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales. Earnings from American Airlines and Netflix.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDNZD (+0.51%) Rallied from 1.0600 yesterday to breach 1.0700 earlier, although cooling now. MAs still aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher. RSI 63 but cooling, H1 ATR 0.0014 Daily ATR 0.0053.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 21st January 2022.

Market Update – January 21 – Stocks Sink – Netflix & Peloton Crash.


Stock markets sank again (Nasdaq -1.3%) Tech companies led the slide, (Peloton -24%, Netflix -18% post results. USD firmed as Yields & Oil dipped, Gold held onto to gains. Markets are nervous and risk aversion has picked up as investors eye shaky earnings, and waning confidence, with mounting tensions over Ukraine adding to geopolitical tensions. US Weekly claims hit a 3-mth high, EZ Inflation was an ATH and North Korea said it may resume testing its nuclear arsenal. Asian markets and AUD & NZD lower (AUDJPY -0.62%) ASX 200 (-1.2%), Nikkei 225 (-1.8%).

  • USD (USDIndex 95.65) ticks higher slips as Yields decline .
  • US Yields 10-yr moved closed at 1.83% & trades at 1.785%.
  • Equities – USA500 -50 (-1.1%) 4482 – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4467.
  • USOil – Fell below $82.00 afrom highs at 87.95 on Wednesday, Inventories increased by 0.5m vs 2.3m drawdown.
  • Gold – held on to gains topped at $1848 and holds $1838 now, holding the key 1830 support.
  • Bitcoin under $40,000 back to test $39,000,
  • FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1300 – 1.1322, USDJPY now 113.80 & Cable back to 1.3570, the week’s low.

Overnight – UK Retail Sales plunged -3.7%, Consumer confidence slipped 4 whole points to -19 and Japanese core inflation was inline at 0.5%.

European Open – The 10 US Treasury yield is up from overnight lows, Bunds are also finding buyers in opening trade, and the 10-year continues to shy away from turning positive, as ECB officials continue to push back against speculation of an early rate hike at the end of the year and market sentiment generally turns cautious. DAX and FTSE 100 future are posting losses of -1.4% and -1.1% respectively.

Today – EZ Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Mann; ECB’s Lagarde, BoJ’s Kuroda



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.66%) Rallied from 1.6675 yesterday to breach 1.6800 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher. RSI 73 OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.0026 Daily ATR 0.0100.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 24th January 2022.

Market Update – January 24 – Markets on toes on Fed and Ukraine jitters.


It was all about risk aversion and a flight to safety in the markets to end the week. Concerns over Ukraine-Russia tensions added to the bearish backdrop as the hawkish turn the FOMC and other central banks, along with the worries over inflation, as well as earnings as the impacts surging expenses on the bottom line take their toll.Meanwhile, the PBoC is going the other was as it looks to shore up its slumping economy. China’s central bank just cut its 14-day reverse repo rate and added more stimulus after cutting the 7-day rae last Monday, along with the reduction in the 1-year medium term loan rate. This is providing some support to Chinese stocks and that could underpin some follow-through dip buying into Western equity markets

Additionally, many of the high flying pandemic companies are crumbling, led by the weakness in Netflix and Peloton. The 10-year Treasury rate is at 1.76%, the German Bund rate at -0.065%, both slightly lower. USD firmed Gold held onto to gains.

  • Preliminary PMI readings for Japan showed struggling services sector, but ongoing improvement in manufacturing, which left the composite in contraction territory for the first time since September 2021.
  • Australia’s composite plunged to 45.3 from 54.9.
  • China’s PBOC provided 14-day funds at a 10 bp lower rate, which was no surprise after last week’s slew of rate cuts as the country battles Covid-19 and troubles in the property sector.
  • USD (USDIndex 95.75) ticks higher .
  • Equities – USA500 dis 4419 – USA500 and USA100 posted their biggest weekly drop since March 2020 last week.
  • USOil – rebounce to $85.00 but holds below it.
  • Gold – held on to gains topped at $1841 and holds at 7-week rally.
  • Bitcoin under $35,000 handle – its lowest since July 2021.
  • FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1300 – 1.1326, USDJPY now 113.60 (The Japanese yen tends to benefit from safe haven flows as stocks crumble) & Cable eased to 1.3550, below 20-DMA.

European Open – GER40 and UK100 futures are posting slight gains, as are US futures, with tech stocks leading the way. Markets struggled overnight, but while European PMI readings this morning are likely to look similarly weak than data out of Japan and Australia overnight, in the current situation that also backs hopes of a cautious stance at central banks, as the FOMC announcement on Wednesday comes into view.

Today – Today’s local calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for Eurozone and U.K., which are expected to reflect the impact of virus measures on the services industry, especially in the Eurozone.Today’s schedule includes earnings from IBM, Southern Copper, Halliburton, Brown & Brown, Logitech, and Steel Dynamics. The data slate is light with December Chicago Fed national activity index, along with flash January Markit manufacturing and services PMIs. The Treasury auctions $54 bln of 2-year notes.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.41%) Topped to 1.8927 extending Friday’s gains. Currently settled to 1.8900 barrier. MAs flattened along with RSI, but MACD signal line & histogram hold higher, while Stochastic points lower. H1 ATR 0.0024 Daily ATR 0.0111.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 25th January 2022.

Market update – January 25.


A flight out of equities and into the safety of bonds was the opening theme yesterday – Could we see this repeated?

US futures are under pressure once again, alongside a broad sell off across Asian equity markets. Tensions over the Ukraine, virus developments in China and the prospect of reduced central bank support all continued to weigh on sentiment overnight. The rise in Omicron cases ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays and of course the Olympic Games is adding to nervousness over slowing growth.

  • Australia’s inflation rate came in higher than expected, which added to growing conviction that the RBA will end its quantitative easing program at the February 1 meeting.
  • Singapore surprised with a move to tighten policy outside of a scheduled review
  • USD (USDIndex 95.90) saw a pullback after breaching 96.11.
  • Treasury rates dove lower with a strongly bid 2-year sale extending the slide. The just auctioned 2-year rate dropped 7 bps to hit 0.970%.
  • Equities – Hang Seng and CEI 200 expected to drop more than -1.8% today. The Nikkei closed with a loss of -1.7%, the ASX plunged -2.5% after the hot inflation report. Yesterday, USA100 crashed -4.9%, with the broader indexes over -3% lower before hitting bottom and paring losses. But a late buy the dip rally saw the USA100 rally 0.63%, with the USA500 and USA30 up 0.29%.
  • USOil – back to $82.00 territory, – recovering some of yesterday’s losses, as growing tension in Eastern Europe and the Middle East fuelled concerns over possible supply disruptions. Lower US oil inventories are also providing support.
  • Gold – held on to gains at $1841 as investors sought safety.
  • Bitcoin steadied to $35,000 handle.
  • FX markets – The Yen was supported as risk aversion picked up and USDJPY dropped to 113.66. EURUSD at 1.1306 & Cable below 1.3500.

European Open – European stock futures are signalling a bounce back from yesterday’s sell off, with the GER40 and UK100 currently posting gains of 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. EGB yields are set to rise today, as stock markets bounce back from yesterday’s sell off. The German 10-year Bund yield is up 1.4 bp at -0.097% in early trade, the French 10-year up 1.3 bp, both underperforming versus Treasuries, which have moved higher overnight, as Asian stock markets sold off.

Today – The FOMC meeting starts today, with an announcement due tomorrow, ahead of the ECB and BoE meetings in February. Geopolitical risks will remain in focus today, while the data calendar highlights are the German Ifo readings and the UK CBI manufacturing survey.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Cocoa (-3.22%) Huge dive to 2488 from 2684 highs seen last week, breaking all daily SMAs (20-, 50-, 200-day). Fast MAs aligned lower intraday with all momentum indicators pointing further lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 26th January 2022.

Market update – January 26 – Central Banks Eyed.


It was a wild Tuesday in the lead up to today’s FOMC decision. Both bonds and stocks closed lower as the Fed is widely expected to outline a rate hike strategy with a 25 bp liftoff in March. Exaggerated fears of a 50 bp move and perhaps a string of 4 to 5 hikes this year have dissipated, though we suspect the markets are still positioned too bearishly. We expect the policy statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference to be less hawkish than anticipated, hence setting the markets up for a bit of a relief rally.

So far today, Bonds have struggled, stocks hit the skids again in the US session but eased in the Asia session, and FX markets have remained in a narrow range as markets wait for the FOMC and BoC. Australia was on holiday, which made for somewhat lower volumes, but it was mainly the upcoming FOMC announcement that put a lid on markets. Ukraine tensions and speculation over gas supplies to Europe in case of an escalation of tensions with Russia are weighing on sentiment. UK PM Boris Johnson now has to answer the police over “partygate”, with calls for him to resign getting louder.

  • USD (USDIndex 96) continues incline – 3rd day above 20-DMA.
  • The 10-year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bp at 1.773%. The 10-year JGB rate is also slightly higher, but the 2-year paper found buyers as the BoJ summary shows commitment to loose policy. – The bank’s stance focused on providing stimulus to reach the 2% inflation goal.
  • Treasury’s $55 bln 5-year auction was super strong.
  • Equities – The USA100’s -3.18% drop paced the weakness, followed by a -2.8% loss on the USA500 and a -2.3% decline on the USA30. Today, Topix and Nikkei corrected -0.25% and -0.44%, GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.66% and 0.84% respectively, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.7% higher.
  • Earnings: General Electric, beat on earnings, but missed on revenue, which weighed heavily while American Express provided upside support on solid earnings led by record credit card spending. Microsoft beats expectations with $18.8bn profit.
  • Central banks clearly are getting nervous about the risk of second round effects, but the IMF’s growth downgrades yesterday also highlighted the risks from slowing momentum in China and virus developments.
  • USOil – up to $84.60 – API data shows US crude stocks fall,Biden threatens sanctions on Putin over any invasion, markets await Fed update, US approves oil exchange from strategic reserve. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement launched a missile attack on a United Arab Emirates base hosting the US military.
  • Gold – down to $1844 from $1854.
  • Bitcoin at $37,000 handle.
  • FX markets – USDJPY steady at 113.95. EURUSD at 1.1295 & Cable at 1.3500.

European Open – Bund futures are under pressure, while US futures are moving higher, while in cash markets, the German 10-year Bund yield has lifted 0.4 bp to -0.08%. BTPs are supported though and spreads are coming in.

Today – Along with today’s BoC and FOMC result, the earnings calendar is heavy. Today’s slate features several biggies, including Tesla, Abbott Labs, Intel, AT&T, Boeing, Anthem, ServiceNow, ADP, Lam Research, Crown Castle, Norfolk Southern, Freeport-McMoran, Progressive, Kimberly-Clark, Amphenol, Ameriprise, Corning, Nasdaq, Hess, Teradyne, Seagate, United Rentals, Raymond James, and Teledyne. Data includes the December advance goods trade report



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF – Breaks 0.7300 (R1) from 0.7195 lows on Monday. Fast MAs aligned lower intraday with all momentum indicators pointing further higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 3rd February 2022.

Market Update – February 3 – Stocks gain, FX awaits BoE & ECB.


Stock markets closed higher after a weak start (S&P500 +0.94%) Mixed PMI data, a huge miss (-301k) for ADP & record CPI (5.1%) in Europe hung on sentiment. Asia markets struggled too. Weak earnings from Meta, Spotify and a -24% decline for PayPal. USD & Yields consolidate, Oil holds on to gains & Gold holds over $1800. Biden ordered 3000 troops to Eastern Europe.

China, Hong Kong and other markets remained closed for the Lunar (Tiger) New Year holidays.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.10) up from 95.77 low, 96.00 remains a key level
  • US Yields 10-yr closed at 1.766 & trades at 1.766%.
  • Equities – USA500 +43 (+0.94%) 4589 – (PYPL -24.59%, GOOG +7.45%) USA500 FUTS slip 4538. META lost +20% after hours,
  • USOil – Spiked over $88.00 on OPEC+ maintaining 400k/day output. Now $86.32 after inventory drawdown
  • Gold – topped at $1810 back to $1802 now.
  • Bitcoin remains under $40,000 back to test $37,000
  • FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1295 USDJPY up to 114.60 & Cable to 1.3550
Overnight – Japan Services PMI missed, Large rise in AUD Imports, & Building Approvals.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks at 168.72, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures, as risk aversion picks up again amid disappointing reports from tech bellwethers that weighed on stock market sentiment. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.4% and -0.3% and a -2.3% sell off in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower.

European markets closed mixed though yesterday, after another record setting inflation report for the Eurozone put pressure on the ECB ahead of today’s announcement.

Final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK are likely to highlight that virus developments continued to weigh on the sector at the start of the year, but officials are increasingly optimistic that economies will bounce back quickly from the most recent virus variant. Against that background, the spike in inflation is starting to look worrying, especially as labour markets continue to tighten.

The BoE is widely expected to deliver another rate hike today, while the ECB could well sound more hawkish than some expect.

Today – EZ, UK & US Services PMI, Weekly Initial Claims, Factory Orders & ISM Services PMI, BoE & ECB Earnings Amazon, Eli Lilly, Biogen, ConocoPhillips, Penn, BT, Shell, Nokia, ING, Infineon.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.30%) Rallied from key 0.8380 to 0.8415 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but under 0 line, RSI 58 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0012 Daily ATR 0.0059.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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