Home-Based Trading Career Pathway & Journey...

[kc8flq]

NzdCad

Was looking over the charts this morning, letting my eyes adjust to being able to see setups and seen this on on the NzdCad pair. Daily on the right Hourly on the left.

Resumption of the uptrend and MACD FL above 0 and SL on the daily, not to mention the great momentum crossing the diverging MA's at the time.

On the hourly, the FL had just turned up, a break of the high by a few pips, for me that few is 5, same with a stop at a swing point, 5 pips. But never placed at a round number. So if it means 7 or 8 pips, so be it, same risk percentage, just means a smaller lot size. Back to the setup candle, a break of the 0500 candle on the 17th by 5 pips would signal an entry. Stop would be placed 5 pips below the recent swing.
One thing to note, if I see a setup that I missed I will enter by market if need be and ONLY IF price has come back to the entry price and the rules for entry ARE STILL VALID but I will NEVER chase a trade, at least not ever again. That's the discipline that I've instilled in myself from being burned too many times. Discipline is not easy to master of yourself, but being former military has helped immensely in that area. And then there's learning to trust your rules and yourself with those rules.
Guess that's enough rambling from me... onto the charts.

WO, if I've missed the mark with this, please shed your professional light on me and the errors of my ways.

K.C.

 

[WklyOptions]

Hey W

thanks for the recent PM and information ...........I like Macd's myself and this is a robust and steady strategy for sure ............I wish you all the best for the future

N

Hi, N,

Thanks for your feedback! Will post over at the Correlation thread soon on an ongoing trade on the EURNZD we have on right now.

Thanks for all of your comments and input throughout all of the various threads!

Regards,

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Was looking over the charts this morning, letting my eyes adjust to being able to see setups and seen this on on the NzdCad pair. Daily on the right Hourly on the left.

Resumption of the uptrend and MACD FL above 0 and SL on the daily, not to mention the great momentum crossing the diverging MA's at the time.

On the hourly, the FL had just turned up, a break of the high by a few pips, for me that few is 5, same with a stop at a swing point, 5 pips. But never placed at a round number. So if it means 7 or 8 pips, so be it, same risk percentage, just means a smaller lot size. Back to the setup candle, a break of the 0500 candle on the 17th by 5 pips would signal an entry. Stop would be placed 5 pips below the recent swing.
One thing to note, if I see a setup that I missed I will enter by market if need be and ONLY IF price has come back to the entry price and the rules for entry ARE STILL VALID but I will NEVER chase a trade, at least not ever again. That's the discipline that I've instilled in myself from being burned too many times. Discipline is not easy to master of yourself, but being former military has helped immensely in that area. And then there's learning to trust your rules and yourself with those rules.
Guess that's enough rambling from me... onto the charts.

WO, if I've missed the mark with this, please shed your professional light on me and the errors of my ways.

K.C.

Hi, KC,

Wow! An exotic currency pair you picked out!

All good - excellent focus and training of your eyes on T1 and T3 setups! I can tell you will soon be a profitable trader (if not already consistently profitable right now)!

Okay, I've attached two charts for focused study! Best traders = best focused researchers/students!

Chart 1 = T3 1st trade = LOSS of (-1R). The entry on T3 H1 was as you marked. Excellent attention to details and focus on "execution" of BUY Entry above green bar high. However trade turned back down and Stop-Loss pivot point was hit for a (-1R) loss.

Chart 2 = T3 "2nd bullet" trade. BUY Entry above T3 green bar's high. Stop-Loss below T3 red bar pivot point. Trade moved immediately into profit and hit (+2R). At this point, normally I exit 50% of my position. Then remaining 50% open position would be carrying open profits of (+6R) - AND - the charts seem to indicate more profits (possibly going to +10R or more!).

As you can see, by drilling down from T1 to T3, you can see how the MACD can be a very powerful predictive indicator for professional traders!

In addition, the losses are small (-1R) - however the winners will OFTEN exceed > (+6R). I have had many trades where my open 50% remaining position hit (+15R)!

"keeping losses small...letting profits run..." = this is what our T1/T3 strategy is all about!

Great work, KC, on your NZDCAD case study - next time, hopefully you will also post the "2nd bullet" part of your trading plan!

As a professional trader, I do not trade on one trade win or loss. I am trading over a series of T1/T3 campaigns! Often, a single T1/T3 campaign will require a "2nd bullet" - occasionally a "3rd bullet".

All not a problem as long as T1 remains showing a clear Dominant Trend - and you develop the discipline to let the 50% hit (+2R) for closed profit, and let run the other 50% open profit until taken out by price action!

Keep up the work and focused study! :smart:

Regards,

WklyOptions

 

[kc8flq]

AudNzd

Hello WO

Here's one that I saw while going thru the charts. I wasn't up when it first signaled short, but I put my pending order in and was filled just a short time ago. Some might think it's chasing a trade, I feel it's price giving me an opportunity to enter where I would have the first time.

Initial target is at 2R, the low of the setup candle was 1.07909, I placed the entry @ 1.0787, with the often times wider spread on this pair. Should I get stopped out, I'll be waiting patiently for a re-entry opportunity if the market provides it. Or it'll hit my 1st target at which point half the position closes and I'll adjust the stop to entry price and follow price action, wih a final target @ 8R 1.0547.

Thank you for the words of encouragement WO.

KC

EDIT: I should note that any trades placed right now are demo only!

 

[kc8flq]

Possible setup

One to keep an eye on to see if the stars and moon align...

To keep on the radar.

Not too fond of the momentum that already happened tho... looks like it might be over extended and in need of a retracement.

 

[WklyOptions]

Hello WO

Here's one that I saw while going thru the charts. I wasn't up when it first signaled short, but I put my pending order in and was filled just a short time ago. Some might think it's chasing a trade, I feel it's price giving me an opportunity to enter where I would have the first time.

Initial target is at 2R, the low of the setup candle was 1.07909, I placed the entry @ 1.0787, with the often times wider spread on this pair. Should I get stopped out, I'll be waiting patiently for a re-entry opportunity if the market provides it. Or it'll hit my 1st target at which point half the position closes and I'll adjust the stop to entry price and follow price action, wih a final target @ 8R 1.0547.

Thank you for the words of encouragement WO.

KC

EDIT: I should note that any trades placed right now are demo only!

Hi, KC,

The setups look good - like you said, unfortunately your SELL entry point is a tad late and thus your overall R becomes more expensive - and getting to +2R becomes more challenging.

This is one of the professional trader's dilemma:

1. Miss ideal entry points and setups? Vs paying for an automated alert service?
2. Or take a later entry - but higher R stop-loss - and wider to the +2R target?

No right or wrong answer here - depends purely on the trader's mindset and standards.

Hopefully the downside strength in trend & momentum off the T1 chart will carry the trade thru.

Good that u are running thru in demo mode! Would recommend 10 closed trades thru the demo process!

Let's see how your trade will unfold...

Thanks for sharing!

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

One to keep an eye on to see if the stars and moon align...

To keep on the radar.

Not too fond of the momentum that already happened tho... looks like it might be over extended and in need of a retracement.

Hi, KC,

Great job and focused effort!

This EURNZD (1st SELL Entry on T3) SELL trade was the exact trade I took and just exited recently. See attached chart.

Now there is a 2nd SELL setup - but no SELL entry yet...still pending...

Back to the SELL trade #1:

1. Sold out 50% at +2R.
2. Remnant 50% was exited at break-even.

Net = +1R for the trade. Now looking and waiting to see if 2nd SELL setup will trigger SELL entry or not.

Thanks for bringing this trade to all T2W readers' attention.

Note - I find at least 10 excellent trend-continuation setups per month, and 8 excellent trend reversal setups per month, regularly over the past 5+ yrs!

A professional trader focusing on H1 and H4 as the T1 - these traders can easily find many more low-risk/high-profit setups if intraday trading! Just not my trading niche however!

There is never a lack of opportunity - but focused attention, time, patience, is required to exploit these opportunities! Imagine - risk only $500 per 1R - and looking to profit or breakeven every month!

Only limitation is if/when these setups occur when asleep or on travels w/o access to internet.

So keep at it...

WklyOptions

WklyOptions

 

[kc8flq]

A few setups lurking

Howdy WO,

Thanks for the kind words.
I was sifting thru the charts and happened to see a few setups coming along. One you already touched on the EurNzd, so I won't take up precious time with that one.

NzdCad is the closest so I'll start with that one. Just need a turn up on the hourly MACD. So it could happen in the next few hours. I'll be checking hourly til bedtime

Then the AudUsd, GbpUsd, and the EurJpy are looking like possibilities in the coming few days. But just like the weather it can all turn on a dime. Or as we say in Ohio, don't like the weather?, just wait 15 mins, it'll change :whistling .


K.C.

 

[timsk]

. . . Thanks for bringing this trade to all T2W readers' attention . . .

When you post that pdf you said you would, then subscribers to the thread might stand some chance of understanding what's going on.
Tim.

 

[WklyOptions]

When you post that pdf you said you would, then subscribers to the thread might stand some chance of understanding what's going on.
Tim.

Hi, T2W readers,

As per Tim's post, I've attached the ePDF on introductory trading approach called "Tracking Big Money Trends".

It involves the MACD indicator - I know many regard this as a lagging indicator - but in the application of using it across multiple time frames, the MACD has been shown to have strong predictive accuracy.

Additional references that involves use of the MACD in Multiple Time Frame analyses include:

1. "Trading Chaos" - Bill Williams, PhD. He explored the use of the MACD on a T1 trend of 34 bars, and a T2 trend of 140 bars (100-140 bars).

2. "Inside the Black Box: Trend Continuation" - SR&P Group. They focus on the use of the MACD across T1 thru T4 time frames. This is the key trend continuation trading manual that the attached introductory ePDF is based upon.

3. "Inside the Black Box: Trend Reversals" - SR&P Group. They focus on using the MACD into T1 Divergences against Double Tops/Double Bottoms. Then drill down thru the T2-T4 time frames to identify trading setups.

4. TheOptionHunter DVD series - Dale Wheatley. Dale has 2 DVD series focusing on the use of the MACD for trend and counter-trend setups. In addition he runs several monthly-subscription services associated with his methods. He may seem heavy-handed at times - but his intentions are very good, and his methods clear.

Feel free to post any other MACD reference materials you are aware of that involves the MACD across Multiple Time Frame applications!

Please note - the attached ePDF is very short & brief. However, it does have pretty precise criteria focusing on T1 and T3 time frames - even at the level of an introductory booklet!

It was created to raise awareness on the use of multiple time frames and also to teach trading newbies how to focus on the most clear-cut Dominant Trends on T1.

Although the booklet is focused on bullish setups - it works well also for bearish setups. Plus, it works for equity/ETF/options trading as well as forex swing trades.

Hopefully you will find some good and applicable learning for your own trading.

As a strong example, KC who has posted several times here with key T1 and T3 charts, has developed quite an "eye" and focus on the details of this introductory approach.

Step up, raise your technical analysis standards, stay open minded, and really learn to "focus" on the details. Don't judge yea/nay - do the hunting, stalking, and testing - and then try it out!

I think it is pretty straight forward - please feel free to post charts on T1 and T3 if you find any of interest. I'd be happy to go over any relevant charts.

Good luck!

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Howdy WO,

Thanks for the kind words.
I was sifting thru the charts and happened to see a few setups coming along. One you already touched on the EurNzd, so I won't take up precious time with that one.

NzdCad is the closest so I'll start with that one. Just need a turn up on the hourly MACD. So it could happen in the next few hours. I'll be checking hourly til bedtime

Then the AudUsd, GbpUsd, and the EurJpy are looking like possibilities in the coming few days. But just like the weather it can all turn on a dime. Or as we say in Ohio, don't like the weather?, just wait 15 mins, it'll change :whistling .


K.C.

Hi, KC,

Good work on posting these charts for studying! I like the GBPUSD Daily T1 setup the best - very clear Dominant Trend criteria on T1.

Also, on Chart #4 - the EURJPY - it does not meet the T1 Dominant Trend criteria.

Why not? Because the T1 although in a bullish up-slope direction - is still below the T1 MACD zero-line. Remember, we want T1 MACD Fast Line to be > 0 as one of the T1 criteria.

But - that's why you are learning so quickly - you are not shy of posting setups and being given feedback! :smart: You are well on your way to trading longevity and success! :clap:

Whenever you take a chart, be it T1 or T3, be sure to go thru every single criteria check-list. This is analogous to the Blue Angel pilots before every training and exhibition flights: they go thru every step of the pre-flight checks, then mentally and internally visualize and use audible calls thru their rehearsals and "virtual" flights! They consistently do this every day - making a procedure/checklist into a Standard - or a "habit" that cannot be violated.

So, keep up the strong work - and instill that "habit" and making that habit into a Standard.

Best regards,

WklyOptions

 

[kc8flq]

EurJpy

Hi WO,

My plan for the EJ is to wait patiently until it resumes it's downward trend on the daily, then watch the hourly for the right setup to happen. Could take a week or 2. But it's on the radar as one to watch develop.

Have a great weekend all!

K.C.

 

[kc8flq]

Gu

Evening WO, and others...

Was stopped out of the AudNzd trade but as they say, the show must go on. Wasn't able to get in front of the charts until tonight, just too much going on over the weekend. But i did manage to set a buy stop on the GU and was entered in the last 45-50 mins.

 

[kc8flq]

NzdJpy

Evening WO,

Here's a setup happening on the NzdJpy pair. Pending order set for 88.90, which takes into account the variable spread of 2.6 - 2.9 pips.
Stop will be at 88.66(1R of 24 pips) and 1st target(2R) is 89.38.

Should it not trigger my order and the setup become invalid, I'll cancel the order, and watch for other pairs setting up, which I'm already doing

K.C.

 

[kc8flq]

Update : MACD took a downswing on the hourly, order cancelled.

Evening WO,

Here's a setup happening on the NzdJpy pair. Pending order set for 88.90, which takes into account the variable spread of 2.6 - 2.9 pips.
Stop will be at 88.66(1R of 24 pips) and 1st target(2R) is 89.38.

Should it not trigger my order and the setup become invalid, I'll cancel the order, and watch for other pairs setting up, which I'm already doing

K.C.

 

[kc8flq]

CadChf Question

Good morning WO,

I'm looking at the CadChf and have a question about the MACD thats happening. It could take a couple hours or more to play out, so I'll be watching it from hour to hour.

On the right, on the hourly chart, the FL is below the ZL, would the setup still be valid if the candle closed and the FL had turned up and the candle closed with the FL ABOVE the ZL? or would it invalidate it?


K.C.

 

[kc8flq]

CadChf

Update of CadChf: Entry in the 1500 candle, after a break of the high of the 1400 candle.

I put a 15M chart on it as well, interesting to note that the larger candle had the same conditions as on the 1H. So could this be an extra confirmation of it....? Something to ponder...

 

[WklyOptions]

Update of CadChf: Entry in the 1500 candle, after a break of the high of the 1400 candle.

I put a 15M chart on it as well, interesting to note that the larger candle had the same conditions as on the 1H. So could this be an extra confirmation of it....? Something to ponder...

Hi, KC,

Sorry for late reply - had taken quick long wknd off to relax & unwind.

For the CADCHF setup, let me give you an additional tip/hint to help minimize getting trapped by false T3 setups:

1. I want to wait for my T1 Daily red (pull-back) bar to close - or at least very nearly close on my FXCM MT4 chart clock. Here I have enclosed a picture of the CADCHF Daily T1 chart with a red bar down closing. My FXCM MT4 clock is at about 23:28pm right now - so about 30 more mins before T1 Daily closes down.

2. Then I would go to my T3 Hourly chart - and look for the T3 criteria at that time. I have also attached a T3 Hourly chart - again with about 30 more mins before the T1 Daily closing red bar.

Again, although not explicitly described in the free ePDF introductory manual, it is implied that we wait for a closing T1 bar in pull-back against the Dominant Trend on T1. Then - we go down to T3. :-0

Once the T1 Daily red bar closing down is confirmed - the T3 Hourly chart should already have the T3 MACD below the zero-line in accordance with the start of going thru the T3 checklist & criteria.

Hope this is clear - understand? Questions? :smart:

Thanks for your patience!

Regards,

WklyOptions

 

[kc8flq]

1. I want to wait for my T1 Daily red (pull-back) bar to close

Hi WO,

Just to confirm if I understand properly.
So are we initially waiting for a pullback T1 candle against the trend before we start the process of drilling down to T3 for possible further setup conditions?

Thank you for YOUR patience.
KC

 

[WklyOptions]

Hi, KC,

Sorry for late reply - had taken quick long wknd off to relax & unwind.

For the CADCHF setup, let me give you an additional tip/hint to help minimize getting trapped by false T3 setups:

1. I want to wait for my T1 Daily red (pull-back) bar to close - or at least very nearly close on my FXCM MT4 chart clock. Here I have enclosed a picture of the CADCHF Daily T1 chart with a red bar down closing. My FXCM MT4 clock is at about 23:28pm right now - so about 30 more mins before T1 Daily closes down.

2. Then I would go to my T3 Hourly chart - and look for the T3 criteria at that time. I have also attached a T3 Hourly chart - again with about 30 more mins before the T1 Daily closing red bar.

Again, although not explicitly described in the free ePDF introductory manual, it is implied that we wait for a closing T1 bar in pull-back against the Dominant Trend on T1. Then - we go down to T3. :-0

Once the T1 Daily red bar closing down is confirmed - the T3 Hourly chart should already have the T3 MACD below the zero-line in accordance with the start of going thru the T3 checklist & criteria.

Hope this is clear - understand? Questions? :smart:

Thanks for your patience!

Regards,

WklyOptions

KC, T2W members,

FYI - if you have the free introductory ePDF "Tracking Big Money Trends", please look at pg 7.

This pg 7 shows a chart example of a Dominant Trend T1 chart. Note that the selected "Orderly Pull-back" regions correlate to having the T1 bar turn red against the bullish Dominant Trend on T1.

That's why I said above - that it is implied but not explicitly stated - it is best to make sure the T1 bar closes before going down to the T3 "Orderly Pull-back" checklist and criteria!

So:

1. If my T1 is Daily - on my FXCM MT4 platform, the T1 bar closes at 23:59pm. So I want to begin monitoring T3 (and T2 if more precision desired) time frame probably within 15-30 mins of the T1 Daily bar closing.

2. If my T1 is H4 for example, and if it closes at 15:59pm on my FXCM MT4 clock, then I begin to monitor my T3 M15 chart beginning about 5-10 mins before the H4 closes.

Understand? :-0 Any questions?

Best regards,

WklyOptions