ymonly said:so did the springboard work or did the up price move tell u buy? spd said down or up...price said up...i like price...everyday all day...fomc loss can only be same as others ....means nothing to me...
ymonly said:by the way, would you have taken a downside move?
firewalker99 said:I'm not sure what you mean by "if it worked", but if you are asking about my position at that time, I was already long from 12355.
If we moved lower then 12350, then I would probably have initiated a short... but after entering the trade there was no real reason for me to exit until the end of the day really.
bracke said:Firewalker
Your entry long at 12355 appears to have been before the hinge had been reached and the direction was indicated,
Am I correct in thinking that your entry at 12355 was based on the support that this level had provided earlier?
Regards
bracke
firewalker99 said:Yes correct.
But my entry or exit wasn't what I meant to illustrate, the purpose was to show the hinge and if you had entered long in the hinge, you would've still had a very good entry and be ready for the move that followed...
bracke said:firewalker
But is that the correct method of using the hinge?
You appear to be suggesting that one should take the trade before the hinge is full formed. Nothing wrong with doing that if it is based on other criteria but if the hinge is the criteria then
I thought that the method was to identify the hinge 'flaps' as they were forming, wait until the hinge 'joint' was reached and if the price went up or down take the trade in that direction.
Apologies if I have misunderstood you.
Regards
bracke
firewalker99 said:Bracke, I believe you misinterpreted me indeed.
I posted the chart to illustrate a hinge... not to show a possible hinge trading strategy. My trade had nothing to do with the hinge - as you correclty pointed out it wasn't formed yet at that time.
What you describe is a possible strategy, waiting for confirmation to see what happens, but others might have a more aggressive approach and take a gamble on direction? Who's to say one is better than the other... Hinges can lead to great potential, but false breaks can also get you into trouble.
bracke said:A gamble! Surely not! I thought that was what we were trying to avoid. Why not wait until the hinge is fully formed and direction suggested then take the trade. You may miss a few points but surely it is worth it to gain an icreased probability of a winning trade. I appreciate that it may prove to be a false break but that's what a stoploss is for.
Regards
bracke
firewalker99 said:I'm not saying I would take a gamble, I'm just saying some would probably do. And if they have backtested and refined a certain hinge strategy where let's assume in 50% of the cases price breaks out to the upside and travels as high as the width of the hinge, well... I'm sure they can afford to be wrong then for 50% of the other time with a stop placed at a sensible point.
It just amazes me that people always want to be right about what's going to happen, when an edge doesn't necessarily mean you have to be right all the time, let alone more than half of the time.
ymonly said:soo....we are okay with 50% system...hinge or no hinge...mine runs about 84 to 89
bracke said:What about this chart. Results are due on 28 March, woild you trade now or wait for the breakout?