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[HFM.]

Date: 18th May 2026.

US-Iran Tensions, Bond Yields and Gold Pressure Markets.

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Negotiations between the US and Iran are not witnessing progress, and the US is again taking into consideration further attacks. As a result, investors are pricing in further supply chain disruptions due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut.

A big concern for the market is the selloff within the global bond market, particularly in the US and UK. The US 10-Year Bond Yield has risen to 4.615%, the highest since January 2025. In addition to the above, investors are also predicting that the possibility of further interest rate hikes will increase as oil prices rise again.

US and Iran Negotiations​

Over the weekend, President Trump spoke to members of the media, expressing his frustration with Iran and the lack of progress. The President’s language was particularly aggressive, advising that ‘time is of the essence’.

The US and Iran remain deeply divided over an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Judging by the comments from both representatives over the weekend, the reopening of the Strait any time soon remains unlikely. Meanwhile, a drone attack triggered a fire at a nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates, while the global bond sell-off intensified amid the ongoing deadlock between Washington and Tehran.

In addition to the above, reports suggest that the US administration is taking into consideration further action against Iran. These include policy measures, Non-military developments as well as further direct attacks on Iran. If the conflict escalates further the market is likely to take on a ‘risk-off’ appetite. As a result, the US Dollar and crude oil may potentially rise further.

NASDAQ Fights The Market’s Risk-Off Sentiment​

All global indices fell on Monday due to the low sentiment among investors as bond yields and crude oil prices rise. The rise in bond yields is likely to trigger higher interest rates, even without the Federal Reserve adjusting monetary policy. However, inflation and oil prices also increase the possibility of rate adjustments.

During periods of low-risk sentiment, the NASDAQ usually underperforms other major indices. However, today it is outperforming the broader market. Although all indices are declining, the NASDAQ is holding up best. This is likely due to the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report and continued AI-trend optimism.

HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour

The NASDAQ is trading slightly below the VWAP, which gives a bearish bias, but the price has risen above the key moving average. Indications will depend on whether the price rebounds away from the moving average or if the price continues to rise. If the price falls below $28,992.75, sell signals will arise and will potentially strengthen if it falls further below $28,927.60.

XAUUSD Falls To Its Lowest Since March 2026​

During the Asian session, the price of Gold fell quickly close to a two-month low but thereafter was quick to rebound. The decline was triggered by the rise in the Dollar and bond yields. However, the Dollar is now retracing lower but still remains high, pressuring Gold.

Gold remains under short-term pressure today, with the bias staying bearish while the price trades below the $4,576–$4,580 resistance area. A break below $4,510 could reopen downside towards $4,480 and lower, while a move back above $4,580 would suggest buyers are regaining control, with the next recovery targets around $4,645–$4,700.

Though the price will continue to depend on the US Dollar, bond yields, and developments within the Middle East. According to economists, if bond yields rise to 5.00%, investors are likely to panic and become risk-averse.

Key Takeaways:​

• US-Iran talks remain stalled, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and raising fears of further supply-chain disruption.
• Global bond yields continue to rise, increasing pressure on equities and gold while supporting the US Dollar.
• The NASDAQ is outperforming other indices, supported by NVIDIA earnings expectations and continued AI-sector optimism.
• Gold remains under pressure, with higher bond yields and a stronger Dollar pushing XAUUSD near a two-month low.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 19th May 2026.

Markets on Edge: Rising Yields, Oil Volatility, and AI Stocks Under Pressure.

Global markets are entering the new trading day with investors facing a difficult mix of geopolitical uncertainty, surging bond yields, and renewed pressure on high-growth technology shares. After months of AI-driven optimism pushing equities to record highs, markets are now confronting the reality of elevated inflation risks and the possibility of interest rates staying higher for longer.

Asian Markets Slide as Tech Stocks Lead Losses​

Asian equities traded mostly lower during Tuesday’s session, with technology shares once again under heavy pressure. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped sharply as semiconductor giants came under renewed selling pressure, reflecting weakness seen overnight in US chipmakers.

The broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as investors rotated away from risk assets and toward safer positions amid growing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and global interest rates.

Japanese equities also weakened despite stronger-than-expected GDP data. Although Japan’s economy expanded for a second consecutive quarter, investors largely ignored the positive economic figures and instead focused on rising global bond yields and energy-driven inflation risks.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong markets managed modest gains, while Chinese equities remained under pressure as investor sentiment across the region deteriorated.

Bond Yields Become the Market’s Main Concern​

One of the biggest themes dominating financial markets is the relentless rise in government bond yields.

The yield on the US 30-year Treasury climbed above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2023, while Japan’s 30-year government bond yield surged to record highs not seen since the bond was first introduced in 1999.

Markets are increasingly worried that elevated oil prices and resilient economic data could force central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer than investors had previously expected.

Historically, rising Treasury yields have created significant headwinds for equities, particularly growth and technology stocks. Higher yields reduce the attractiveness of future earnings projections, which directly impacts richly valued AI and semiconductor companies that have led the recent rally.

This concern is becoming increasingly visible in valuations. The Nasdaq 100 is currently trading above its long-term average forward earnings multiple, leaving the sector vulnerable to corrections if financing conditions tighten further.

AI Rally Faces Its Biggest Test Yet​

The artificial intelligence boom has been the dominant driver of global equity performance throughout the year. However, the environment is becoming more challenging.

Chipmakers and AI-related stocks came under renewed pressure after weakness in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index extended into a second session. Investors are beginning to question whether current valuations can remain justified if borrowing costs continue climbing.

Several major technology stories are also shaping market sentiment:

• NVIDIA Corporation remains in focus ahead of earnings, with investors watching closely for signs that AI demand remains strong.
• Seagate Technology suffered a sharp decline after management’s comments raised concerns about its ability to keep up with soaring memory demand.
• Standard Chartered announced plans to cut thousands of support roles as banks increasingly integrate artificial intelligence into operations.
• Google and Blackstone Inc are reportedly working on a new AI cloud venture designed to compete with existing infrastructure providers.

The market’s current challenge is balancing long-term AI optimism against short-term macroeconomic risks.

Oil Prices Remain the Key Market Driver​

Energy markets continue to dominate global sentiment as traders closely monitor developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Donald Trump stated that planned US military strikes on Iran were postponed due to ongoing negotiations, oil prices remain historically elevated.

Brent crude slipped below $110 per barrel after the announcement, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $103. However, crude prices remain dramatically higher compared with pre-conflict levels.

The near-total disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to raise fears of prolonged supply shortages, especially for Asian economies heavily dependent on imported energy.

Higher oil prices are now feeding directly into inflation expectations globally, complicating the outlook for central banks and increasing pressure on both bonds and equities.

Gold Retreats as Yields and Dollar Rise​

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, Gold moved lower as rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Gold prices retreated toward $4,540 per ounce after briefly rallying earlier in the week. Investors appear to be balancing safe-haven demand against expectations that higher interest rates may persist longer than anticipated.

The US dollar also continued strengthening as investors sought defensive positioning amid market uncertainty.

What Traders Should Watch Today​

Markets remain extremely sensitive to headlines related to the Middle East conflict, oil supply disruptions, and bond market movements.

Key themes traders will monitor throughout the session include:

• Developments regarding US-Iran negotiations
• Movements in Treasury yields
• Crude oil volatility and Strait of Hormuz updates
• Upcoming earnings from major AI and technology companies
• Central bank expectations and inflation outlook

The current environment suggests volatility is likely to remain elevated. While AI optimism continues to provide long-term support for equities, rising yields and persistent energy inflation are beginning to challenge the sustainability of the rally.

For traders, today’s session may revolve around whether markets continue rotating into defensive positioning or whether buyers return to risk assets following recent pullbacks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.