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[HFM.]

Date: 19th May 2025.

Global Markets Slide After US Credit Rating Downgrade, Weak Chinese Data Add to Investor Jitters.

Asian markets fell today while US futures and the dollar weakened, as global investors digested Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. The move came in response to the US government's persistent struggle to control rising debt, currently sitting at $36 trillion.

US Credit Rating Downgrade Sends Ripples Through Global Markets​

Moody’s cut the US sovereign credit score from its long-held AAA rating to Aa1 — the first downgrade since 1917. The rating agency cited worsening fiscal conditions, a widening deficit, and increasing concerns over the government's capacity to manage its debt obligations. It follows earlier warnings in 2023 and echoes similar concerns raised by Fitch and S&P in previous years.

The downgrade hit global sentiment hard. The futures for the S&P 500 slid 0.9%, while those for the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6%. The US dollar weakened, dipping to 145.14 yen from 145.65 yen, while the euro remained flat at $1.1183.

Asian Markets Under Pressure Amid Weak China Data​

Chinese equities slipped after fresh data revealed slower-than-expected economic growth. April retail sales in China rose just 5.1% year-on-year, missing forecasts, while industrial output growth eased to 6.1% from 7.7% in March. The slowdown raises concerns over excess inventories and reduced domestic demand, particularly in the wake of the ongoing US-China trade tensions.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.7% to 23,184.74, and Shanghai’s Composite Index edged down 0.2% to 3,361.72. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.4%, Korea’s Kospi lost 1%, and Taiwan’s Taiex shed 0.8%. Australia’s ASX 200 declined 0.1%.

Adding to the pessimism, China’s property market showed no signs of recovery, with new home prices unchanged in April, marking nearly two years of stagnant growth despite government support efforts.

Trade War Uncertainty Looms Over Markets​

Tensions between the US and its trading partners continue to add volatility. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that President Donald Trump would impose tariffs on countries not negotiating in ‘good faith.’ Although Bessent did not clarify what qualifies as ‘good faith,’ he stated that letters outlining tariff rates would be sent to non-compliant nations.

Trump has already shifted tariff rates multiple times this year. In April, he reduced most tariffs to 10% for 90 days to encourage negotiations, while tariffs on Chinese imports were adjusted to 30%.

Despite last week’s 90-day standstill agreement between the US and China, investor sentiment remains fragile amid concerns over Trump’s unpredictable trade policies.

Wall Street Rallies but Risks Remain​

Despite the looming economic headwinds, Wall Street closed higher last week. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 5,958.38, bringing it within 3% of its February all-time high. The Dow climbed 0.8% to 42,654.74, while the Nasdaq rose 0.5% to 19,211.10. Optimism over potential tariff rollbacks helped fuel the rally, but fears of a recession and stubborn inflation still weigh heavily.

Moody’s downgrade also underscores long-term structural challenges for the US economy, as successive administrations have failed to rein in government spending.

Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations Worsen​

The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index showed another decline in May, though the pace of deterioration slowed. More troubling, Americans now expect inflation to reach 7.3% over the next year, up from 6.5% the month before, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts.

Hope remains that softer inflation readings and slowing economic activity could eventually prompt the Fed to ease monetary policy,a key support for markets facing trade shocks and fiscal uncertainty.

Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand​

Gold prices edged higher as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid mounting US fiscal concerns. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,218.30 an ounce in Singapore after briefly surging as much as 1.4% earlier in the session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.2%.

Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating supported gold’s appeal. The precious metal, which hit record highs above $3,500 an ounce last month, remains up over 20% this year despite recent pullbacks driven by easing geopolitical tensions.

Oil Prices Dip on Weak Data and Credit Worries​

Oil prices fell Monday following the US credit rating downgrade and underwhelming Chinese economic data. Brent crude slipped 0.5% to $65.06 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 0.4% to $62.23. The more actively traded July WTI contract also fell 0.5% to $61.66.

While the recent truce between the US and China initially lifted crude prices, concerns over the durability of the agreement and China’s faltering recovery have kept investors cautious.

Corporate Highlights: Mergers and Market Moves​

In corporate news, Charter Communications rose 1.8% after announcing a merger with Cox Communications. The combined entity will retain the Cox name and be headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

Nvidia-backed CoreWeave jumped 22.1% after the tech giant increased its stake in the AI cloud computing firm from just under 6% to 7%.

Meanwhile, US-listed shares of Novo Nordisk fell 2.7% after the company announced CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will step down amid recent market challenges, despite the popularity of its Wegovy weight-loss drug.

Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead​

With the US credit rating downgrade, wavering trade relationships, and mixed economic signals from China, financial markets are likely to remain volatile. While some positive inflation data could support a dovish Fed pivot later in the year, uncertainty over global trade policies and fiscal stability will continue to dominate investor sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 21st May 2025.

Dollar Weakens Ahead of G-7 as Traders Watch for US Policy Shifts.

The US dollar slipped to its lowest level in two weeks on Wednesday, as market participants turned their attention to the upcoming Group-of-Seven summit for clues on whether the Trump administration is favouring a weaker greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a third straight session, losing 0.4% on the day.

Speculation has grown after Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, expressed his intent to hold currency discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during the G-7 meeting. South Korean officials have already confirmed that exchange rates were addressed during recent bilateral talks with the US, fueling expectations of a coordinated policy shift.

Fiscal concerns are adding to the dollar’s woes. Lawmakers in Washington are working on a proposed tax cut plan that aims to keep the revenue impact within $4.5 trillion over a decade, currently estimated at $3.8 trillion. This comes on the heels of a credit downgrade by Moody’s, which cited persistent and unaddressed budget deficits as a key reason for lowering the US government's credit rating.

‘The dollar is declining in tandem with rising long-term US yields, as investors grow uneasy about financing America's twin deficits,’ said Moh Siong Sim, FX strategist at Bank of Singapore. ‘We’re likely witnessing the early stages of a broader reallocation away from overweight US positions by global investors.’

Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil, Equities Mixed in Asia

Oil prices spiked following a CNN report that suggested Israel may be preparing for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.21 to $63.24 per barrel, while Brent crude added $1.20 to reach $66.58. The report, citing unnamed intelligence sources, said no final decision had been made by Israeli leaders, but any strike could derail ongoing nuclear negotiations and heighten instability in the Middle East—a region responsible for roughly a third of global oil supply.

Asian equity markets were mixed. The Hang Seng gained 0.4%, Shanghai’s Composite edged up 0.2%, and Australia’s ASX 200 advanced 0.8%. South Korea’s Kospi rose by the same margin, and Taiwan’s Taiex climbed 0.6%. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225, however, dipped 0.1% amid ongoing trade tensions with the US

Japan reported weaker trade data, with April exports to the US falling nearly 2% year-on-year. Total global export growth slowed to 2% from 4% in March, while imports from the US plunged over 11%. The country recorded a trade deficit of 115.8 billion yen ($804 million), and the yen's recent strength has further dampened export competitiveness. Vehicle exports, a core component of Japan’s trade, dropped nearly 6%.

The Japanese government continues to urge Washington to remove the tariffs introduced under President Trump, particularly the 25% levy on autos and duties on steel and aluminium. Economic Revitalisation Minister Ryosei Akazawa is expected to meet with US officials this weekend in a third round of negotiations.

Adding to domestic political pressures, Agriculture Minister Taku Eto resigned following controversial remarks about receiving free rice, triggering public backlash amid rising staple food prices.

Wall Street Dips as Travel Stocks Lag; Quantum Firm Soars

US stocks ended lower on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 5,940.46, its first decline in seven sessions. The Dow dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.4%. Travel-related shares dragged the market lower, with Norwegian Cruise Line falling 3.9%, United Airlines off 2.9%, and Airbnb down 3.3%. Viking Holdings, despite better-than-expected earnings, slumped 5%.

Home Depot shares slid 0.6% after quarterly earnings missed estimates, though revenue came in ahead. The company maintained its full-year guidance, contrasting with other corporations that have cited tariff uncertainty and economic headwinds as reasons to withhold forecasts.

In contrast, D-Wave Quantum surged nearly 26% after launching a next-generation quantum computing platform, claiming it can tackle problems traditional computers cannot handle.

Investors are watching for earnings from Lowe’s and Target today.

Bonds and Currency Moves

Treasury yields were little changed. The 10-year yield inched up to 4.47%, while the 2-year yield dipped slightly to 3.96%, reflecting expectations around future Federal Reserve policy. The dollar softened, trading at 144.10 yen from 144.51, while the euro climbed to $1.1307.

UK & Canadian Inflation Reports Raise Stakes for June Rate Decision

This morning UK inflation jumped to 3.5% y/y in the headline rate, from 2.6% y/y in the previous month, with prices rising a whopping 1.2% m/m. The later timing of Easter and the start of the new fiscal year clearly impacted the higher-than-expected number. Core inflation accelerated to 3.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y, with services price inflation hitting 5.4% y/y, up 0.7% points over the month. The wider CPIH rate accelerated to 4.1% y/y from 3.4% y/y. The higher-than-expected number backs warnings from Chief Economist Pill that inflation risks have not disappeared and is prompting traders to trim rate cut bets.

Also, Canada’s April inflation data delivered a mixed picture. Headline CPI slowed to 1.7% year-over-year, the weakest since September, due to lower energy prices and the carbon tax repeal. However, core inflation surprised to the upside: the median rate climbed to 3.2% (from 2.9%), the trim rose to 3.1%, and the average core measure accelerated to 3.15%. The three-month moving average of core inflation jumped to 3.4% from 2.9%.

These stronger core figures complicate the Bank of Canada’s upcoming rate decision on June 4. The central bank held rates steady at its April 16 meeting but may now face pressure to act amid persistent underlying inflation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 22nd May 2025.

Bitcoin Surges Above $111K for the First Time as Institutional Demand and Regulatory Optimism Fuel Rally.

Crypto markets outperform as equities stumble under bond market pressure and rising US debt concerns.

Bitcoin hit a new record high on Thursday, crossing the $111,000 threshold for the first time amid growing institutional interest and hopes for improved regulatory clarity in the US. The digital asset rose as much as 3.3% to reach $111,878, according to Bloomberg. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also saw notable gains, climbing up to 5.5% intraday.

Sentiment was lifted by progress in the US Senate on a key stablecoin bill, which investors interpret as a sign of potential pro-crypto regulation under President Donald Trump. This comes alongside mounting demand from major institutional players, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which now holds over $50 billion in Bitcoin.

There’s no shortage of demand for BTC from SPAC and PIPE deals, which is manifesting in the premium on Coinbase spot prices.

Several newly formed or obscure public companies are driving fresh demand, funding their Bitcoin purchases through convertible debt, preferred equity, and other instruments. One example is Twenty One Capital Inc., a new firm modelled after Strategy and launched by an affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald LP in partnership with Tether Holdings SA and SoftBank Group. Meanwhile, a merger between a subsidiary of Strive Enterprises Inc., co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, and Nasdaq-listed Asset Entities Inc. will create a Bitcoin treasury company.

‘This rally is not just momentum-driven’, said Julia Zhou, COO of Caladan, a crypto market maker. ‘It’s supported by tangible, sustained demand and supply dislocations’

Bitcoin’s dominance is growing, as alternative cryptocurrencies struggle. An index tracking smaller altcoins has declined about 40% in 2025, while Bitcoin is up 17% year-to-date.

In the ETF space, 12 US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have attracted around $4.2 billion in inflows this month. On Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, open interest is heavily concentrated around June 27 expiry calls at $110,000, $120,000, and even $300,000.

The latest breakout confirms the broader bullish trend. The sharp pullback from January’s highs to below $75,000 in April now looks like a correction within a bull market. A firm break above $110,000 could set the stage for a move toward $125,000.

The latest rally coincides with a private dinner on Thursday between Trump and top holders of his memecoin at his golf club near Washington. Ethics experts warn that such events raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest and access through financial contributions. However, analysts say the meeting has had minimal direct market impact.

Asian Markets Retreat on Bond Market Worries and US Debt Concerns

Asian equity markets fell sharply on Thursday as pressure from rising US Treasury yields and concerns over surging American debt rattled investor confidence.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.0% to 36,944.55, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.9% to 23,615.21. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite edged 0.1% lower to 3,383.10. Australia’s ASX 200 slid 0.5% to 8,342.80, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.1% to settle at 2,595.69.

The US still has the biggest markets and deepest liquidity, but not even dollar inertia can outrun compound interest and structural deficits forever. The weaker US dollar also weighed on regional markets. A depreciating dollar undermines the value of Asian nations’ dollar-denominated assets and negatively impacts exporters like Japan’s automakers, whose overseas profits diminish when converted to local currency.

In currency markets, the greenback slipped to 143.27 Japanese yen from 143.68 yen. The euro strengthened slightly to $1.1335 from $1.1330. A year ago, the dollar was trading near 150 yen.

Investors are also increasingly wary of President Trump’s policy decisions, particularly on tariffs that affect Asian firms and ongoing negotiations in Congress over a major funding bill.

Wall Street Flat Ahead of Tax Vote

US stock futures were little changed early Thursday as markets awaited the outcome of a vote on President Trump’s proposed tax reform bill. Dow futures dipped 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures traded flat.

Despite internal GOP disagreements, House Speaker Mike Johnson said a floor vote could happen as early as Thursday night. The latest version of the bill includes more generous deductions for state and local taxes (SALT), aimed at appeasing Republican holdouts.

However, unresolved issues surrounding Medicaid funding and green energy tax credits have investors concerned. Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit outlook, citing the bill’s potentially massive deficit implications as a contributing factor.

Markets reacted on Wednesday with broad declines and a jump in bond yields. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly breached 5%, its highest in months, amid renewed concerns over the US’s growing debt burden.

Beyond politics, investors on Thursday will also digest key economic data, including weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, and the ISM’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 23rd May 2025.

Dollar Drops as Fiscal Concerns Shake Markets, Euro and Yen Rebound.

The US dollar softened on Friday, poised for its first weekly decline in five weeks against both the euro and the yen. The shift comes as mounting concerns over the US's deteriorating fiscal position have led investors to seek out safer assets.

Following Moody’s recent downgrade of US debt, market attention turned sharply toward America’s staggering $36 trillion debt load. The renewed focus has been amplified by President Donald Trump’s proposed tax legislation, which is expected to significantly expand the deficit if passed.

Labelled by Trump as a ‘big, beautiful bill,’ the tax package narrowly cleared the Republican-majority House of Representatives. It now heads to the Senate, where extended debate is expected—further contributing to near-term investor caution.

The euro climbed 0.36% to $1.132 on Friday, on track to close the week with a 1.2% gain after four weeks of losses. Earlier dollar strength had been supported by a pause in tariff escalations, but sentiment has since shifted. Year-to-date, the euro has appreciated 9% amid ongoing turbulence sparked by tariff policy and a retreat from the dollar.

‘This week, the focus moved away from trade tensions to fiscal stability. That change has rattled markets,’ said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. ‘The U.S. fiscal path now looks so concerning that investors are questioning its sustainability.’

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major peers, was down 0.3% at 99.614 on Friday and is set for a 1.35% weekly loss. This drop comes despite a selloff in U.S. Treasuries, with 30-year yields hovering above 5% in Asian trading, close to their October 2023 peak of 5.179%—levels not seen since 2007.

The rising yields have failed to support the dollar, as a wave of risk aversion fuels what some analysts have dubbed a “Sell America” movement, echoing trends seen last month.

‘What’s striking is how markets are reacting to the surge in long-term U.S. yields,’ said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. ‘These yields aren’t being driven by optimism about growth, but by deepening fears of fiscal irresponsibility and ballooning interest costs.’

He added that the combination of rising inflation expectations and waning foreign interest in U.S. debt has led to a notable spike in the term premium.

The yen firmed to 143.47 per dollar, set for a 1.5% weekly rise after Japanese core inflation in April surged at its fastest pace in over two years. This could prompt the Bank of Japan to consider raising interest rates before year-end.

Despite a fragile economy burdened by tariffs, super-long Japanese bonds reached record highs this week, though prices steadied on Friday.

The Swiss franc gained slightly to 0.8264 per dollar and is up 1.2% this week, snapping a two-week losing streak.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.39% to $0.6434 after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate to a two-year low of 3.85%, citing weaker global prospects and easing domestic inflation.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% to $0.5916, on track for a 0.6% weekly increase.

Asian Equities Rebound as Yields Retreat

Asian stocks advanced early Friday as U.S. Treasury yields retreated after a volatile week driven by debt-related fears. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.52%, while the more Fed-sensitive two-year yield dropped to 3.98%.

Oil prices declined amid speculation that OPEC+ may raise production at its next meeting. U.S. crude fell 51 cents to $60.69 per barrel, while Brent slid to $63.93.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% to 37,289.60 after the government reported April core inflation at 3.5%, its highest since early 2023. Analysts now expect the BOJ to cautiously consider tightening policy.

Still, ING’s Min Joo Kang noted that U.S. tariff pressures could limit the BOJ’s room to maneuver, especially with Japan’s export sector under threat.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 23,627.99, Shanghai’s Composite Index gained 1% to 3,382.12, Seoul’s Kospi edged up 0.2% to 2,597.49, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 8,379.10.

Wall Street Mixed as Policy Fears Linger

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down slightly to 5,842.01. The Dow ticked lower by 1.35 points to 41,859.09, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3% to 18,925.73, led by tech gains. Alphabet climbed 1.4% and Nvidia added 0.8%.

Treasury markets steadied following the House’s passage of a tax bill expected to deepen the federal deficit. The package would extend $4.5 trillion in tax breaks and introduce new ones, while accelerating the phase-out of clean energy credits—sending solar stocks tumbling. Sunrun lost 37.1%, Enphase dropped 19.6%, and First Solar slid 4.3%.

Healthcare stocks also fell after a federal agency announced broader audits of Medicare Advantage plans. UnitedHealth lost 2.1% and Humana plunged 7.6%.

In the latest economic data, jobless claims edged slightly lower, signalling continued labour market resilience. Still, businesses remain cautious amid an ongoing trade war.

A strong S&P Global report on U.S. manufacturing and services showed a rebound in May, though it also highlighted supply chain disruptions and cost pressures tied to looming tariffs.

The jump in prices for goods and services marked the sharpest since August 2022.

Currencies Update

In early Friday trade, the dollar eased to 143.45 yen from 144.01. The euro rose to $1.1319 from $1.1279, reflecting continued pressure on the greenback.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 28th May 2025.

Economic Data Boosts The US Dollar And US Indices!

All indices rose in value on Tuesday as investors positively react to the latest economic data beating expectations. The positive economic data also triggered an upward trend for the US Dollar Index. The FOMC Meeting Minutes due this evening will influence both the stock market and the US Dollar. However, shareholders will largely fix their attention on NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report due in the upcoming hours.

SNP500 (USA500) - NVIDIA Report Key For Stock Market Performance​

NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report is unique due to its exposure to indices and ETFs. NVIDIA’s stocks are one of the few stocks which are included in the SNP500, NASDAQ and even the Dow Jones. For the SNP500 and the NASDAQ the stock is the 2nd most influential company and the 23rd most influential for the Dow Jones.

However, investors should note that due to its weight, the earnings report will not only impact the SNP500. It will also influence sentiment towards the stock market and the technology sector. Currently, the sentiment within the market continues to improve as economic data signals lower recession risk.

NVIDIA stocks rose 3.21% on Tuesday and so far during this morning’s Asian session are maintaining the gains. This indicates investors are not expecting poor earnings from this evening’s report. If we monitor the stocks within the SNP500 which hold a weight of at least 0.50% and above, all stocks rose in value on Tuesday. This indicates the strength of the current momentum. If NVIDIA comfortably beats earnings and revenue expectations, NVIDIA stocks and most indices are likely to continue increasing in value for the week.

USACAD 30-Minute


As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, another development which is having a positive influence on the SNP500 and NASDAQ are Meta stocks. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly adopting a pro-Trump stance to reduce regulations on Facebook and Instagram and for the administration to apply pressure on countries charging additional taxes on the platform.

NASDAQ (USA100) Analysis Video​

USDCAD - Economic Data Boosts The US Dollar!​

On Tuesday the US released 3 economic data. Durable Goods Orders for April fell by 6.3% which was a significantly lower decline than projections. The Core Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.2% whereas analysts were expecting the core orders to decline. Lastly, the US CB Consumer Confidence rose from 85.7 to 98.00, the highest in 3 months and also reaching the 100.00 level.

In the previous week, the USDCAD struggled to hold its value and the trend clearly moved in favor of the Canadian Dollar. However, price action at the moment signals a correction and the US Dollar increases in value across most currencies. Currently, the main influence is likely to be the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes. Currently the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, but the Meeting Minutes may provide insights into how hawkish they are. If the view of the Fed remains hawkish, the Dollar may find support.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said interest rates should stay unchanged until the effects of high trade tariffs on consumer prices are clearer. He highlighted the challenge the Fed faces. This includes balancing inflation and the need to support economic growth amid policy uncertainty from the Trump administration.

On a different subject, the US Dollar may also find support from progress in the US-India trade talks. The Indian Finance Ministry suggests that a successful trade agreement with the US could transform current economic headwinds into tailwinds, boosting exports and market access.

Currently, the USDCAD is retracing lower since the opening of the European Session. However, the price of the exchange continues to maintain a price above most Moving Averages. If the price regains momentum and increases above 1.38305, buy signals will strengthen.

Key Takeaway Points:​

• All major indices and the US Dollar Index climbed on Tuesday, supported by stronger-than-expected US economic data. This includes Durable Goods Orders and Confidence Indexes.
• NVIDIA's report, key due to its significant weighting in the SNP500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones, is set to impact market sentiment, particularly in the tech sector.
• Meta’s pro-Trump pivot, aimed at reducing regulations and addressing tax challenges abroad, is contributing to positive sentiment in the SNP500 and NASDAQ.
• The USDCAD saw a correction after weak prior performance, supported by solid US data and the upcoming FOMC meeting. A hawkish Fed commentary would offer potential support for the Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

 

[HFM.]

Date: 29th May 2025.

NVIDIA Beat Earnings Expectations and The CIT Blocks US Tariffs.

The NASDAQ rose to its highest price since February 21st as investors positively reacted to US courts ordering Trump to remove tariffs. In addition to this, NVIDIA stocks rise 5.00% after releasing their latest quarterly earnings report. Let’s take a look at the latest developments impacting the markets.

US Courts Say No To Trump Tariffs​

Surprisingly, the Court of International Trade in New York made the decision that the US administration has overstepped its mandate. The court stated that the President must set tariffs through Congress. Although most of these tariffs are currently suspended, it gave the White House 10 days to remove them, except for those on aluminum and steel.

The court order puts doubt on whether tariffs are possible and if they will be part of the current administration. So far, the White House said, ‘It is not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency,’ as it launched an appeal against the court. The ruling by the court does have a positive impact in the short-medium term. However, the courts also add uncertainty to the upcoming weeks.

NVIDIA Beat Earnings Expectations​

NVIDIA shares climbed after the market closed as investors held onto their positions, buoyed by strong earnings results. The company reported revenue of $44.1 billion, marking a 12% increase from Q4 and a 69% rise year-over-year. Both earnings per share and revenue exceeded prior projections. If momentum is maintained, the stocks may become the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, and SNP500 again.

Currently, for the NASDAQ, the stocks hold a weight of 11% and 6% for the SNP500. All 3 US indices are currently increasing in value, mainly due to NVIDIA’s earnings report and the court order.

NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes​

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from earlier in the month were more negative than expected. According to experts, the market may have had a bearish reaction to the meeting minutes. Though this was avoided due to support from NVIDIA and the latest court order. The meeting minutes reveal heightened concerns over the economic impact of President Trump's trade policies. They particularly highlight the potential loss of the US safe-haven status due to market volatility following tariff announcements.

Officials noted that declines in US government debt prices, equities, and the US Dollar could signal a shift in investor confidence, potentially leading to long-term economic repercussions. Therefore, the report confirms that a recession is still a real concern for the Federal Reserve. However, the Meeting Minutes also stated that upward pressure on inflation may be difficult to control while simultaneously trying to stop the employment sector from weakening.

However, the report is generally known as a lagging indicator. Since the report was drawn up the US administration has become very close to a trade agreement with India and the EU. Due to this, and the court order, the market may pay less attention to the Meeting Minutes.

A key factor for most tradeable assets will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. The index measures the change in pricing of the most bought goods and services. In addition to the Core PCE Price Index, investors will also closely monitor today’s US Gross Domestic Product and Weekly Unemployment Claims.

• NASDAQ +1.16%
• Dow Jones +1.23%
• US Dollar Index +0.24%
• Gold -0.48%

Key Takeaway Points:​

• NASDAQ Rises: Court blocks most Trump tariffs, boosting stocks and the US Dollar. However, the US Dollar quickly gave up the recent gains.
• NVIDIA Shines: Earnings exceed expectations, pushing the stock up 5%. The earnings report supports the stock market as a whole.
• Fed Warnings: Meeting Minutes raise recession concerns from trade policies. The Fed struggles to make decisions due to uncertainties.
• Markets focus their attention on the Core PCE Price Index, GDP, and Weekly Unemployment Claims.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 30th May 2025.

ECB Rate Cut Expectations: Will June Deliver Another 25 bp Cut?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce another 25 basis point (bp) interest rate cut at its upcoming June policy meeting. Despite dovish expectations, recent statements from hawkish members and rising geopolitical uncertainties suggest that the path toward additional monetary policy easing may not be as straightforward as before.

Mixed Signals: Schnabel’s Call for Caution vs Dovish Momentum​

While Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel voiced support for keeping rates unchanged, noting that now is the time for a ‘steady hand,’ the overall tone within the ECB Governing Council has recently leaned dovish. Preliminary Eurozone inflation data and updated projections could strengthen the case made by members like François Villeroy de Galhau for another cut.

June Outlook: Pause vs 25 bp Cut​

At the last meeting, the ECB delivered a widely anticipated 25 bp cut. However, the April meeting minutes revealed a split into three camps:

• One group initially preferred to pause but agreed to front-load a June cut due to rising trade tensions from Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff threats.
• Another faction argued for a larger 50 bp cut, indicating deeper concern over growth risks.
• A third group favoured more cautious, data-dependent easing.

Heading into the June ECB decision, the debate has narrowed to two options:

• A pause to assess incoming data
• A 25 bp rate cut to sustain momentum

Schnabel and Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann have spoken in favour of pausing, arguing that further cuts may be ineffective or even risky for the Eurozone economy.

Data & Tariff Tensions: A New Source of Risk​

Since Schnabel’s remarks, Trump has escalated threats of a 50 bp tariff on EU imports. Though temporarily suspended for talks, the uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Unlike the market volatility after the ‘Liberation Day’ headlines, current reactions have been more subdued, making a preemptive rate cut less justifiable.

Even ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, typically dovish, warned against both over-tightening and over-easing. He emphasized the need for data-driven decisions, saying that further cuts are possible if inflation softens, but ‘no one is talking about dramatic rate cuts.’

Preliminary May inflation data, especially in services, is expected to show deceleration—but this may reflect seasonal adjustments. Meanwhile, import prices continue to fall, though disinflation from a stronger euro (EUR) may have peaked.

Trump’s recent trade threats dampen hopes for a negotiated deal. EU retaliation, if pursued, could raise imported goods prices and offset currency-related disinflation, adding complexity to the ECB’s policy decisions.

The ECB’s inflation expectations survey showed a rise in 1-year inflation expectations, though long-term views remain stable. Business confidence data has been mixed, with front-loaded exports earlier this year potentially leading to weaker activity in Q2.

Germany’s new Chancellor's investment push in infrastructure and defence—what Holzmann called a ‘fiscal shock’—could provide economic support in the medium term. While such measures take time to impact GDP, they add another layer to the ECB’s policy calculus.

Is the ECB Running Out of Room to Cut?​

With rising internal opposition and geopolitical headwinds, the ECB's path to additional interest rate cuts appears increasingly narrow. If a cut is delivered next week, the central bank may pause in July unless further economic shocks emerge. Alternatively, a June pause could leave the door open for easing in July. As Lane stated, the ECB must remain flexible, but the hurdles to further rate cuts are clearly rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 2nd June 2025.

Market Recap: Volatility, Tariffs, and Trade Uncertainty Define May's End and June's Start.

May Ends with Mixed Markets and Renewed Trade Tensions​

Financial markets ended May on a choppy note, reflecting a volatile month filled with geopolitical tensions, shifting inflation expectations, and mounting speculation around central bank policy moves. As the dust settles, investors are turning their focus to June with caution, especially as trade disputes between the US and China intensify once again.

Tariff-related anxieties were reignited following President Donald Trump’s online remarks accusing China of ‘totally violating’ a recent trade agreement. Although the full details remain unclear, the statement prompted a wave of market jitters. While the immediate market panic seen earlier in May, following the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ levies has subsided somewhat, economic uncertainty remains high. The US administration’s unpredictable trade stance — punctuated by calls to double steel tariffs and reimpose levies on Chinese imports — continues to weigh on investor sentiment.

Trump’s Tariff Policy Back in Focus​

Despite the tense geopolitical backdrop, US Treasury yields edged lower, bolstered by a cooling in core inflation expectations and signs of slowing consumer spending. The 2-year yield dropped by 4 basis points to 3.897%, while the 10-year yield slipped by 1.8 basis points to 4.400%. Both yields are approximately 25 basis points higher compared to the start of the month, reflecting the complex interplay between haven demand and shifting monetary policy expectations. The softer inflation data renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts later in the year, a narrative that has provided a partial tailwind for bond markets.

Wall Street closed the month with a strong performance overall, despite Friday’s subdued finish. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a modest gain of 0.13%, the S&P 500 dipped slightly, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 0.32%. However, on a monthly basis, equity markets recorded impressive gains. The Nasdaq rallied 9.56%, marking its best month since November 2023, driven largely by strength in technology and artificial intelligence-related stocks. The S&P 500 rose 6.15%, its best May performance since 1990, while the Dow added 3.94%.

As June began, US stock futures pointed to a weaker open, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 futures all trading lower in early action. Investor caution is apparent, with market participants closely monitoring the evolving trade narrative and bracing for a new wave of economic data. The highlight of the week is the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, expected to offer critical insights into labour market strength and the broader health of the US economy.

Global Market Reaction: Asia Hit by Geopolitical Risks​

Global markets also responded to the trade drama and geopolitical risks. In Asia, major indices fell sharply. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged more than 2%, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.6%, and South Korea’s Kospi declined by 0.4%. The renewed escalation between Beijing and Washington, coupled with concerns over China's manufacturing activity and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, amplified investor nervousness.

Commodity Markets React: Gold, Oil, and the Dollar​

The foreign exchange market reflected the tension, with the US dollar experiencing fluctuations tied to trade developments. The dollar index (DXY) ended the month marginally higher at 99.441 but slipped early Monday as investors assessed the potential economic fallout from escalating tariff threats. The greenback weakened to 142.90 yen, while the euro edged up to $1.1420. Sterling and commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars also gained modestly.

Oil prices initially declined to $60.78 per barrel but later reversed course, rallying after OPEC+ announced a modest output increase starting in July. US crude rose to $62.39, and Brent climbed to $64.19.

Gold prices spiked to $3350 per ounce as some risk aversion returned, fiscal concerns and a weakening dollar continue to underpin the precious metal in the longer term. Analysts have noted that if tariff revenue falls short of expectations, the US may seek alternative fiscal measures, adding further pressure on the dollar and stoking demand for safe havens.

The political landscape also added to the market complexity. President Trump’s sweeping tariff and tax proposals, including the controversial Section 899, are under congressional review. If passed, the bill could significantly reshape the US fiscal framework and investor strategy, especially as it proposes taxing investors from countries with so-called ‘unfair foreign taxes.’ Some senators have already voiced concerns over the projected $3.8 trillion increase in federal debt, and revisions to the bill appear likely.

Meanwhile, company-specific developments also played a role in shaping market movements. Shares of Gap tumbled 20.2% after the retailer warned that new tariffs could cost up to $300 million annually. Nvidia, a key tech heavyweight, also fell 2.9% despite strong earnings, dragging the broader sector lower. On the positive side, Ulta Beauty surged 11.8% after beating expectations and raising guidance, while Costco climbed 3.1% on the back of solid quarterly results.

Looking Ahead: Jobs Report and June Uncertainty​

In summary, May was a month of sharp swings and mixed signals across global financial markets. While equity indices posted strong gains, the broader outlook remains clouded by trade tensions, political risk, and questions about future Fed policy. As June began all eyes turned to key economic indicators and potential developments in US-China relations, which are likely to shape market sentiment in the weeks ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 3rd June 2025.

Global Markets Under Pressure: Japanese Outflows, China’s Slump, and Trade War Fallout Shake Sentiment.

Global markets are facing renewed uncertainty as a combination of trade tensions, weak economic data, and policy recalibrations fuel volatility across equities, currencies, and bonds.

Japan: Historic Fund Outflows and Rebalancing Pressures​

Japanese equity funds witnessed their largest weekly outflows in nearly 18 years, with $7.49 billion pulled in the week to May 28, according to LSEG Lipper data. This marked the heaviest withdrawal since July 2007.

Analysts attribute the exodus to profit-taking after April’s market dip and May’s rebound, along with cautious sentiment around forward earnings. Domestic investors were the primary drivers, accounting for $7.55 billion of the outflows, while foreign funds saw a modest $59 million in inflows.

Daisuke Motori of Morningstar Japan noted this pattern of ‘buying the dip and selling the rally’ has repeated in recent months. Rebalancing by large institutional investors such as pension funds and life insurers likely added to the sell-off.

A strengthening yen—up 10% against the dollar year-to-date—is also clouding Japan’s export outlook. LSEG data shows analysts have downgraded forward 12-month earnings forecasts by 1.8% in the past 30 days.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to tapering its bond-buying and cautiously normalizing policy, even as uncertainty looms large. While inflation reached 4.6% in April, underlying inflation remains below the BOJ’s 2% target. The next rate-setting meeting on June 16–17 is expected to review the bond tapering plan extending into fiscal 2026.

Ueda also flagged concerns about US tariffs and their impact on Japan’s economy, warning of potential hits to exports, corporate profits, and wage negotiations heading into winter.

Australia: Tariff Warnings and Rate Cuts​

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also on high alert. Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that higher US tariffs could depress global trade, investment, and employment.

While the precise effects remain unclear due to policy unpredictability, Hunter confirmed that these downside risks were a key factor in the RBA’s recent rate cut to a two-year low of 3.85%. The central bank remains open to further easing, particularly if global trade deteriorates.

Interestingly, the RBA sees the tariff pressure as disinflationary for Australia, given cheaper imported goods as Chinese suppliers redirect exports. Headline inflation remained at 2.4% in Q1, with core inflation easing back into the target band for the first time since 2021.

China: Manufacturing Slumps Despite Tariff Truce​

In China, the manufacturing sector endured its steepest decline since September 2022, according to the Caixin/S&P Global PMI, which fell to 48.3 in May, well below the 50 threshold signalling contraction.

The reading sharply diverged from the official PMI and surprised analysts, suggesting that smaller and medium-sized exporters, particularly in the private sector, are suffering disproportionately despite the recent US-China tariff truce.

Economists attributed the discrepancy to timing differences in data collection and methodology. Nonetheless, the Caixin results point to intensifying economic pressure, with falling export orders and production weighing on sentiment.

The trade war’s ripple effect extended to other Asian economies, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea all reporting declines in manufacturing output.

Currency Markets: Dollar Sinks on Trade War Woes​

Currency markets reflected investor unease as the US dollar hit a six-week low on Tuesday amid signs of fragility in the US economy. The dollar index dropped to 98.58—its lowest level since late April—before partially rebounding.

Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank, said, 'Trade tensions are not really improving… we’ve seen the dollar getting hammered widely.’ The Aussie and Kiwi outperformed, with New Zealand’s dollar hitting a year-to-date high of $0.6054 before retreating.

The greenback weakened following a third straight month of US manufacturing contraction, while upcoming factory orders and jobs data may shed further light on the economic toll of ongoing tariff battles.

The euro briefly touched a six-week high of $1.1454 before retreating, while investors also await this week’s European Central Bank policy decision.

Adding further pressure, US tariffs on steel and aluminium are set to double to 50% this week, even as the Trump administration pushes for tougher trade negotiations globally.



The global economy is showing renewed signs of strain under the weight of trade uncertainty, export weakness, and policy recalibrations. While central banks across Japan, Australia, and China remain cautious, markets are increasingly sensitive to any signs of economic softness or policy missteps.

As the BOJ, ECB, and US data dominate the agenda in the coming days, traders will be watching closely for signs of stabilization—or deeper fragmentation—in an already fragile global landscape.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 4th June 2025.

PMI Surprises, ADP Misses, and Trade Talks Tease Progress.

• ADP jobs data raises Fed rate cut expectations
• Eurozone and UK PMIs revised up, supporting ECB easing
• Mortgage applications and housing data remain weak
• Oil prices stable amid supply concerns and OPEC+ decisions
• Trade optimism builds ahead of the G7, boosting European markets

Global markets are trading cautiously today as investors digest a mix of stronger-than-expected European PMIs, weaker US labour market data, and renewed trade deal speculation ahead of the G7 summit.

US Futures Slide as Trade Tensions and Weak ADP Jobs Data Raise Concerns​

US stock futures turned red midday Wednesday after an initial rebound was erased by a weaker-than-expected ADP private payrolls report. The May ADP print showed just 37,000 jobs added, far below expectations and the slowest pace since March 2023. The goods-producing sector shed 2,000 jobs, with notable declines in mining and manufacturing. Services added 36,000 jobs, but key segments like professional and health services saw job losses.

The report raises downside risks for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and reinforces growing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Former President Trump echoed this sentiment, criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and demanding rate cuts, pointing to Europe’s rate cut spree.

‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!

Treasury yields knee-jerked lower, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.42%, and the 2-year at 3.92%, before retracing slightly. Wall Street futures dipped, with the NASDAQ down -0.13%, and the S&P 500 and Dow both off -0.03%.

European Stocks Rise on PMI Upgrades and Optimism Over US-EU Trade Talks​

Despite US weakness, European stock markets are mostly higher, led by the German DAX, which hit a fresh record high. Gains came after stronger-than-expected revisions to Eurozone and UK PMIs, but also after the German government approved a new tax relief package. A stronger-than-expected batch of PMI revisions across the Eurozone and the UK fueled optimism, with both regions’ Composite PMIs now showing slight expansion rather than contraction.

• Eurozone Composite PMI was revised up to 50.2, shifting from contraction to slight expansion. Services PMI also improved to 49.7, though still below the 50-neutral level. Inflation pressures remained mixed, but falling input costs provided some relief.
• UK Composite PMI improved to 50.3, driven by a sharp rebound in services to 50.9. Despite weak new orders and higher costs, business optimism reached a six-month high, suggesting potential resilience in the second half of the year.

The data supports the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expected rate cut tomorrow, with HCOB analysts arguing that slowing goods inflation could justify further easing. While the ECB has in fact cut seven times (from 4.00% to 2.25%), and the Fed has eased by 100 bps, Trump’s comment underscores the political pressure facing the central bank amid cooling growth signals.

Geopolitical Spotlight: G7 Deal Hopes Rise​

A high-level meeting in Paris between EU and US officials has stoked hope for broader trade negotiations—particularly with China.

However, mixed signals dominate. While Trump commented overnight that President Xi is ‘extremely hard to make a deal with,’ China’s top diplomat countered by urging the US to steer the relationship ‘onto the right track.’ Meanwhile, reports from The Toronto Sun indicate that a potential US-Canada deal could be announced before the upcoming G7 summit, further boosting risk appetite. Trump's new envoy to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, struck an optimistic tone during a speech in Toronto, fueling speculation. Sources suggest Ottawa is aware of necessary concessions, and there’s optimism for at least a framework deal rather than a full USMCA overhaul.

This could be part of a broader Trump strategy to de-escalate global trade tensions, with implications for tariffs and cross-border trade in the weeks ahead.

Currency Markets & Geopolitical Watch​

Crude oil prices hovered near the flatline as the market digested mixed supply signals:

• USOIL (WTI) traded at $63.22 per barrel, down -0.3%, while Brent slipped to $65.42.
• Traders are awaiting official US inventory data after industry data pointed to a larger-than-expected draw of 3.3 million barrels.
• OPEC+ continues to raise output, while Canadian wildfires cause temporary disruptions, although some production has resumed.
• The DXY Dollar Index is slightly lower on the day at 98.88, after touching an overnight high of 99.39.
• Gold slipped -0.2% to $3,347/oz

Outlook: All Eyes on Friday’s NFP and ECB Decision​

Markets are in a holding pattern, torn between optimism on the trade front and deteriorating labour market signals. The ECB decision tomorrow, followed by Friday’s US jobs report, could significantly shape expectations for global monetary policy into the summer.

While equities show resilience, undercurrents of softening growth, lingering inflation pressures, and political friction suggest volatility is far from over.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 5th June 2025.

ECB Rate Cut Expected Today: Inflation Drops Below 2% Target as Global Markets React.

European Central Bank Poised for Second Rate Reduction in 2025.

Financial markets are positioning for another interest rate reduction from the European Central Bank during today's highly anticipated monetary policy announcement. This potential move comes as eurozone inflation has fallen below the central bank's target threshold for the first time in months.

May Inflation Data Strengthens Case for Monetary Easing​

Recent economic indicators have reinforced expectations for accommodative monetary policy across the eurozone. Consumer price inflation unexpectedly declined to 1.9% annually in May, representing a significant drop from April's 2.2% reading. This figure not only fell short of economist predictions of 2.0% but also marked the first instance of inflation dipping below the ECB's benchmark target since September 2024.

The surprising inflation deceleration reflects broader economic headwinds, including business uncertainty stemming from international trade tensions and subdued consumer spending patterns. These factors have collectively undermined pricing power across multiple economic sectors.

Core inflation metrics, which exclude volatile energy and food components, similarly demonstrated cooling trends. The measure retreated to 2.4% in May from 2.7% the previous month, falling below analyst estimates of 2.5%. Monthly core price increases registered a modest 0.1%, signalling persistent disinflationary pressures.

Recent ECB Policy Context​

The central bank previously implemented a 25 basis point rate reduction during its April meeting, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Market participants are now pricing in additional easing measures for June, though expectations for subsequent cuts remain divided. A potential pause in July as policymakers assess incoming economic data and inflation trajectories.

Markets are now pricing in another cut in June, though expectations for further easing beyond that remain uncertain. A potential pause in July is gaining traction, as the ECB evaluates incoming economic data and inflation dynamics.

Asian Markets Show Mixed Performance Amid Global Uncertainty​

Regional Stock Performance Varies​

Asian equity markets displayed divergent trends Thursday as Wall Street's recent momentum showed signs of fatigue following disappointing US economic reports. Futures contracts pointed lower while commodity prices experienced declines.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index retreated 0.2% to close at 37,658.46, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined marginally by 0.1% to 8,535.10. Conversely, South Korea's Kospi index surged 2.1% to 2,829.48, buoyed by political developments as the country's new president, liberal politician Lee Jae-myung, assumed office with promises to reinvigorate North Korean dialogue and strengthen trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.9% to reach 23,856.54, while mainland China's Shanghai Composite remained essentially flat, declining less than 0.1% to 3,374.30.

US Market Reaction to Economic Data​

Wednesday's US trading session concluded with mixed results as major indices responded to weaker-than-anticipated economic indicators. The S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged at 5,970.81, remaining 2.8% below its record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 42,427.74, while the Nasdaq composite advanced 0.3% to 19,460.49.

Bond markets experienced more pronounced movements as Treasury yields declined sharply following disappointing economic updates. One report indicated contraction in the US services sector, contradicting economist expectations for growth. The Institute for Supply Management survey revealed that tariff-related uncertainty was hampering business forecasting and planning capabilities.

A separate ADP employment report suggested significantly weaker private sector hiring than anticipated, potentially foreshadowing challenges in Friday's comprehensive Labor Department jobs report—one of Wall Street's most closely monitored monthly releases.

Federal Reserve Policy Implications​

Trump Administration Pressure on Monetary Policy​

The weaker economic data prompted increased speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. President Donald Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell on his Truth Social platform, stating: "'Too Late' Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!!"

The Federal Reserve has maintained its current rate stance throughout 2025 after implementing cuts through late 2024. The central bank's cautious approach reflects an ongoing assessment of Trump administration tariff policies and their potential economic and inflationary impacts. While lower rates could stimulate economic activity, they might also contribute to inflationary pressures.

International Trade Developments​

EU-US Trade Negotiations​

Trade tensions continue influencing global market sentiment as investors seek clarity on tariff policies. The European Union's chief trade negotiator, Maroš Šefčovič, met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during OECD meetings, though concrete agreements remain elusive.

Trump's steel and aluminium tariff increases took effect Wednesday, particularly impacting Canada and Mexico. Simultaneously, the administration requested ‘best offers’ from trading partners to prevent additional import levies scheduled for July implementation.

Global Diplomatic Efforts​

International efforts to address trade uncertainties continue with Japan dispatching key negotiator Ryosei Akazawa for US discussions Thursday. Germany's new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is also scheduled for Washington meetings as European leaders seek to minimize trade disruption.

Currency and Commodity Markets​

Foreign Exchange Movements​

Currency markets reflected ongoing uncertainty with the dollar index rising 0.1% to 98.879, partially recovering from Wednesday's 0.5% decline. The dollar strengthened 0.2% against the yen to 143, while the euro remained relatively stable at $1.1411 following a 0.4% gain in the previous session.

Commodity Price Action​

Precious metals and energy markets faced pressure as spot gold declined 0.2% to $3,367.30 per ounce, paring previous gains. Oil prices retreated following US inventory builds and Saudi Arabia's price cuts for Asian crude buyers, with US crude falling 0.5% to $62.58 per barrel.

Australian Economic Indicators​

Consumer Spending Concerns​

Australian economic data revealed persistent consumption challenges despite monetary easing efforts. Household spending increased only marginally in April, indicating consumption continues lagging income growth despite lower borrowing costs and reduced inflation.

Given that household spending represents approximately 52% of Australia's GDP, weak consumption significantly impacted first-quarter growth, which expanded by just 0.2%. The Reserve Bank of Australia previously revised consumption forecasts downward when implementing a quarter-point rate cut to 3.85% in May, and may require further downgrades.

Market expectations suggest additional RBA easing as early as July, with rates potentially reaching 2.85% by early next year as policymakers address economic headwinds.

Market Outlook and ECB Guidance​

Central Bank Communication Focus​

Market participants view today's ECB rate cut as virtually certain, shifting attention to President Christine Lagarde's forward guidance regarding future policy direction. Executive Board member Schnabel may have gone on record to note her preference for unchanged rates, but the dovish camp has dominated the headlines over the past weeks. On top of that, preliminary inflation reports for June and updated inflation forecasts are likely to back the arguments of the likes of Villeroy, who continues to argue for even lower rates.

If the ECB fails to deliver a dovish statement today this could upset the equity markets as well as give the euro’s upward trend additional momentum.

Alternatively, in the less likely, but possible event that the ECB keeps rates steady, it could well deliver another cut in July, when the tariff outlook may be clearer. Either way, the hurdles to additional cuts are starting to get higher and Lane's focus on being agile on rates amid heightened uncertainty suggests that the ECB could make a quick turnaround, if and when the outlook changes.

The central bank's communication strategy will prove crucial as markets navigate competing forces of disinflationary pressures, trade policy uncertainty, and varying regional economic performance. Today's decision and accompanying guidance will likely influence global monetary policy expectations and market positioning heading into the summer months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 06th June 2025.

Asian Markets Rise as Investors Await Critical US Jobs Data Amid Political Turmoil.

Markets across Asia posted gains on Friday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the highly anticipated US employment report, which is expected to provide crucial insights into the health of the American economy. The May jobs data takes on heightened significance amid ongoing political tensions between President Trump and Elon Musk, with American stock futures climbing modestly while crude oil prices declined, setting the stage for another potentially volatile trading session.

Asian Markets Show Resilience​

Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 0.5% to reach 37,730.67, and South Korea's Kospi surged 1.5% to 2,812.05. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 0.4% to 23,817.10, while China's Shanghai Composite managed a slight 0.1% increase to 3,385.91. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 remained essentially flat at 8,536.40, and India's Sensex climbed 0.6%.

US Markets Struggle Amid Political Uncertainty​

US markets struggled on Thursday, with the S&P 500 declining 0.5% to 5,939.30, marking its first retreat after three consecutive days of gains. Following a strong May rally that brought the index close to record highs, the benchmark has recently stalled. The Dow Jones fell 0.3% to 42,319.74, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% to 19,298.45.

Market attention turns to the upcoming May jobs report from the Labor Department, with analysts anticipating weaker job growth compared to April. Employment strength has been crucial for supporting the US economy, though concerns mount that uncertainty surrounding President Trump's fluctuating tariff policies might cause employers to halt hiring decisions.

Musk-Trump Feud Rocks Markets​

The market's attention was dominated by an explosive public confrontation between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump that sent shockwaves through the investment community. Musk indicated he would seek to de-escalate tensions after their alliance deteriorated into an open battle on Thursday, when Musk demanded Trump's impeachment and suggested the president was concealing Jeffrey Epstein-related documents due to potential personal involvement.

Trump retaliated by threatening to terminate the tech mogul's lucrative government contracts, responding to Musk's persistent calls for Republicans to reject the president's key tax package over deficit concerns. The hostilities briefly intensified when Trump announced plans to discontinue SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft program.

However, Musk quickly backtracked after receiving conciliatory advice from social media users. 'Good advice,' Musk replied to calls for cooling off, adding 'Ok, we won't decommission Dragon.' When billionaire Bill Ackman encouraged them to reconcile 'for the benefit of our great country,' Musk acknowledged, 'You're not wrong.'

This dramatic split between two figures who previously collaborated on government restructuring has created uncomfortable divisions within the Republican Party, forcing lawmakers to navigate between Musk's financial influence and Trump's political dominance. House Speaker Mike Johnson attempted to mediate, stating that 'policy differences shouldn't be personal' while maintaining his friendship with Musk. The White House has reportedly scheduled a call today with Musk to defuse tensions.

Tesla Bears the Brunt​

Tesla shares experienced their steepest decline since March, falling 14% on Thursday as the Trump-Musk dispute intensified. The stock briefly plummeted 18% during trading—its worst intraday performance since September 2020—before recovering slightly. By Thursday's close, Tesla had dropped roughly 30% year-to-date, falling below the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold.

The decline began Tuesday after Musk denounced the GOP tax legislation as a 'disgusting abomination' and urged his X followers to 'kill the bill.' Investment analysts directly linked the stock's performance to the political feud. Paul Hickey from Bespoke Investment Group warned that Musk's deteriorating relationships across the political spectrum could trigger 'punitive actions' against his companies.

Trump publicly expressed disappointment with Musk's opposition, claiming the billionaire previously understood and supported the legislation until learning about potential EV mandate cuts. Musk disputed these assertions on social media.

Mixed Corporate Performance​

Weekly unemployment claims exceeded forecasts on Thursday, reaching an eight-month peak despite remaining historically low. This coincided with Procter & Gamble announcing plans to eliminate up to 7,000 positions over two years, sending its shares down 1.9%. Brown-Forman experienced its worst trading day since 1972, tumbling 17.9%.

However, some companies bucked the negative trend. MongoDB stood out among gainers, jumping 12.8% following better-than-expected earnings. Circle Internet Group made a spectacular debut, soaring 168.5% on its first NYSE trading day.

Oil Markets Stabilize on Diplomatic Progress

Crude oil prices stabilized following Thursday's gains, buoyed by improved US-China relations after the leaders' phone conversation. Brent crude held around $65 per barrel, positioning for its first weekly increase since mid-May, while WTI remained near $63.

The Trump-Xi discussion focused on resolving tariff disputes and rare earth mineral supply issues, providing relief to markets concerned about demand destruction from trade wars. Oil has declined nearly 20% since Trump's January inauguration due to these trade tensions.

Market volatility has decreased since mid-May as traders balance various factors: diplomatic progress, seasonal demand increases, Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, and potential OPEC+ production increases. Analysts suggest the panic-driven selloff risk has diminished, with Saudi Arabia's stance on production restoration crucial when OPEC+ meets July 6 to set output levels.

Precious Metals Rally Continues​

Silver approached 13-year peaks while platinum reached two-year highs, reflecting growing industrial metal demand. Silver rose following Thursday's 4.5% surge that pushed it above $36 per ounce—levels unseen since February 2012. Platinum gained 1.2% to $1,154.73.

The rally stems from technical momentum and improved fundamentals, including strong Indian silver demand and recovering Chinese platinum appetite. While both metals typically follow gold's haven appeal during uncertainty, their industrial applications provide additional support through solar panel and catalytic converter demand.

ETF holdings show positive momentum, with platinum funds growing over 3% since mid-May and silver funds expanding nearly 8% since February. Palladium also participated in the metals rally, climbing 1.2%. Gold advanced 0.5% to $3,368.79, targeting a 2.4% weekly gain.

Looking Ahead​

The S&P 500's recovery hopes rest partly on expectations that Trump will reduce tariffs through new trade agreements. The index has rebounded strongly from a 20% decline two months ago and now sits just 3.3% below its all-time peak. However, the Musk-Trump feud introduces new uncertainty into markets previously focused on trade negotiations.

The 10-year Treasury yield remained steady at 4.40%, reflecting growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to support an economy potentially weakened by trade tensions. Investors await Friday's employment data following unexpected unemployment claims increases that boosted rate cut expectations.

In currency markets, the dollar strengthened to 143.77 yen from 143.49, while the euro weakened to $1.1438 from $1.1448, reflecting ongoing global economic uncertainties and shifting investor sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 09th June 2025.

Switzerland Witness Deflation For First Time 4-Years!

The Swiss Franc is the second best-performing currency of 2025, however, economists advise the Swiss will witness deflation. The country has experienced deflation in the past and even negative interest rates. The Euro, on the other hand, is the best performing of the year, so can the currency take advantage of the deflationary conditions?

Switzerland Inflation And the Swiss Franc​

Switzerland’s latest Inflation figures fall below 0.00% for the first time since March 2021. Between February 2020 to March 2021, the country saw deflation conditions reaching a low of 1.3%. During the period of deflation, the Swiss Franc fell 4.10% against the Euro and the Swiss National Bank fell to 0.75%.

So far in 2025, the price of the Swiss Franc Index has risen 8.69% mainly benefiting from the market’s risk appetite taking a sharp decline. In addition to this, investors look to mitigate risk away from the US Dollar due to the rising trade deficit. However, over the past month the VIX, one of the market’s main indications of risk, has fallen 20%. In addition to this, the Federal Reserve surprisingly remains reluctant to cut interest rates and follow the market’s trend. Therefore, investors are questioning if the price of the Swiss Franc is at a good level to witness a change in trend. According to economists, this is possible if inflation continues to decline.

Swiss consumer prices fell 0.1% year-on-year in May 2025, matching forecasts after flat growth in April. The drop was led by sharper declines in transport (-3.7%), food and beverages (-0.3%), and healthcare (-0.2%). Prices also fell for household goods, clothing, and recreation. In contrast, housing, energy, and hospitality costs rose at a slower pace, while communication inflation held steady at 1.0%.

The European Central Bank Takes a Hawkish Tone!​

A batch of European economic data was released last week, showing that EU GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, beating the expected 0.3%. Year-on-year, GDP rose by 1.5%, exceeding the 1.2% forecast.
However, analysts caution that these figures do not yet reflect the effects of recent US export tariffs, which could lead to a notable downturn in upcoming periods.

European Central Bank President Mrs Lagarde told journalists that the decision to cut interest rates was supported by almost all members, with only one dissenting. She highlighted that the regulator is now in a good position and views its interest rates as neutral. This suggests a possible pause in July unless unexpected economic developments arise. Goldman Sachs advises the ECB may now pause for up to 5 months, particularly if the economic growth continues.

Currently, the Euro is the best-performing currency due to being the investor's first option to mitigate risk away from the US Dollar. In addition to this, European shareholders in US equities are now starting to hedge the risk of a weakening US Dollar which can raise gains from stock growth. Lastly, investors are increasing their exposure to the Euro due to its expansionary fiscal policy. An expansionary fiscal policy has not been seen in the EU for over a decade, other than spending related to COVID. The Euro Index is trading 9.48% higher in 2025.

EURCHF - Technical Analysis​

The EURCHF has taken a dip during this morning’s Asian and European Sessions. However, in the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the exchange rate remains above the 75-period Moving Average. On the 3-Minute timeframe, the 200-Period Moving Average is currently at 0.93702. If the price rises above this level, buy signals potentially can again materialise.

EURCHF 30-Minutes

Key Takeaway Points:​

• Despite rising 8.69% in 2025, the Swiss Franc faces deflation risks as inflation fell –0.1% YoY in May.
• The Euro is the top performer, up 9.48%, boosted by fiscal expansion, USD hedging, and strong economic data.
• The ECB cut rates but signalled a neutral stance, hinting at a pause in July unless conditions change.
• EURCHF holds above major moving averages; a break above 0.93702 may trigger fresh buy signals.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 10thJune 2025.

Market on Edge As Trade Negotiation Deadline Approaches!

Investors are realising that the ‘temporary pause’ on reciprocal tariffs is slowly approaching its deadline triggering a sense of uncertainty. This is something that is reflected in today’s pricing, particularly the stock market and the US Dollar. Clearer projections for the market’s price movements are likely to be available when the outcome of today’s meeting between the US and China comes to a close. For China, the current deal with the US will end on August 14th and for most other countries on July 8th.

Will the US and China Agree on a New Deal?​

The US and China will continue negotiations this morning in London at 10:00 local time. Yesterday, the negotiations lasted more than 6 hours, but beared no fruit. Due to this, the market at times saw large retracements and for some assets even corrections. Currently, the market pricing is not conveying any signs of optimism but a clear ‘wait and see’ stance.

Kevin Hassett, the White House Economic Adviser, yesterday spoke with journalists and sounded quite optimistic. The President also commented that while China is challenging to negotiate with, reaching a deal is both possible and crucial for both sides. The US leading negotiator, Secretary Scott Bessent, will leave the UK for the US this evening. As a result, today’s negotiations will be vital!

According to reports, currently, the main sticking point is China’s raw earth material which the US wishes to obtain easier access and China is looking to get more access to US technology and plane parts. According to Kevin Hassett, the US is willing to loosen restrictions on tech, but there have been no reports from the Chinese government as of yet.

NASDAQ (USA100)​

The NASDAQ during this morning’s Asian session saw a significant increase rising more than 0.70%, but thereafter fell to the day’s low. This up- price movement clearly illustrates the market’s feeling of uncertainty while the US and China are yet to put pen to paper. On the one hand, the market is optimistic as the two countries have recently managed to agree on a temporary trade deal. The fact that such high ranks of participants from both sides indicates the seriousness of the intentions and the desire to reach a comprehensive agreement around bilateral trade.

In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to maintain a bullish bias regardless of today’s correction back to $21,746.05. The price continues to remain above the 75-period EMA and 100-period SMA. The price is trading below the VWAP so far, but this will become more important once the US session opens. In terms of price waves, the asset continues to see higher highs and lows. The price, however, will all depend on today's negotiations.

NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart

Lastly, a positive factor for the NASDAQ is that the Put and Call ratio is again declining after slightly rising the week before. In addition to this, the VIX also continues to fall while 62% of the NASDAQ’s components are increasing in value.

US Dollar and Gold​

The US Dollar is currently increasing in value and has risen to its highest price since May 30th. Even though the price of the US Dollar and Gold is traditionally inversely correlated, both assets are simultaneously increasing. However, if an agreement is signed by the US and China, Gold may lose momentum as the market’s sentiment improves. Currently, the US Dollar is the day’s best-performing currency.

The US Dollar Index has risen 0.44% so far. The second best-performing currency is the Japanese Yen while the worst is the British Pound (GBP). A key factor for the US Dollar will also be tomorrow’s US inflation rate. The market currently expects US inflation to rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. This would reduce the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before autumn.

USDX 3-Hour Chart

Key Takeaway Points:​

• The upcoming expiration of the tariff pause (July 8 globally, August 14 for China) is fueling investor caution, reflected in volatile stock and USD pricing.
• High-level negotiations in London continue, with no agreement yet. Today’s outcome is expected to strongly influence market direction. The US representatives remain optimistic supporting the market.
• Despite early gains, the index corrected back, showing investor indecision. Technicals remain bullish, but momentum hinges on trade talk results.
• The USD leads global currencies, buoyed by risk-off sentiment and expectations of rising inflation, while gold also climbs despite typical inverse correlation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 11th June 2025.

Dow Fails to Break Resistance Ahead of Key Bond Auction and CPI!

The Dow Jones rose to its highest price since March 2025 as the US and China agreed on a framework to lower tariffs. The comments from both the US and Chinese negotiators kept to an optimistic tone, reassuring markets of a deal. However, a key factor for today will be the US inflation rate and two US Bond auctions. The Treasury will sell $39B in 10-year notes Wednesday and $22B in 30-year bonds Thursday.

Dow Jones Rises on US-China Optimism​

The Dow Jones on Tuesday rose 0.20% from market open to market close. However, the impulse wave after a decline early in the day measured 0.70%. The Dow Jones continues to honour the current trend lines which act as a support level. The bullish price movement is being given by the US-China trade negotiations in London and the optimistic tone.

So far we know the agreement will mean China will ease export restrictions on rare earth materials essential for electronics and green tech. In exchange, the US will relax some export controls on high-tech items like semiconductors and jet-engine parts. As a result, the NASDAQ, SNP500 and Dow Jones rose in value.

However, even with the latest upward price movement, the index continues to find resistance at the $42,959.00 level and fell 0.20% on Wednesday 11th.

Dow Jones Price Action and Technical Analysis​

The main concern for technical analysts is that the Dow Jones on the daily chart is witnessing divergence. This means the price has risen to a higher high, but the RSI remains at a lower low. Simultaneously, as mentioned above the price finds resistance at the $42,959.00 level and has failed to break above this level on 4 occasions.

USA30 1-Hour Chart


Therefore investors remain on edge and prepared for an alternative price movement regardless of the price remaining above most Moving Averages and trend lines. Currently, some risk indicators point to a slight risk-off sentiment, however, no major red flags. The Put/Call ratio has fallen which is positive for the Dow Jones, and the VIX has risen which is negative. The High Low Index also points to a positive investor sentiment as 5 stocks remain at 52 week highs while zero are at a 52 week low.

Due to not obtaining a clear one-sided signal, investors will await for the Bond Auction and Inflation Rate to determine the future price movement.

Today’s Bond Auction and Inflation Rate Impact On The Dow Jones​

The Treasury will sell $39 billion in 10-year Bonds Wednesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. Traditionally, investors do not class bond auctions as an event which can trigger high volatility. However, given the increasing debt scenario, investors will pay particular attention. If the bond values are lower than previous auctions and expectations, investors may become spooked triggering a lower risk appetite. A poorly received auction (low demand, high yields) can have a negative effect on both the Dow Jones and the US Dollar. However, it can have a positive impact on Gold prices, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

US Budget Deficit


Economists expect the US CPI (inflation rate) to rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. Over the past 3-months, the inflation rate has consecutively fallen below expectations. If the inflation rate again falls below expectations, the Dow Jones may find enough support to retest the current resistance level. Whereas, if the inflation rate rises to 2.5% or above, the Dow Jones can witness a potential quick selloff.

Key Takeaway Points:​

• Optimism from the trade deal boosted the Dow, with China easing rare earth export restrictions in exchange for US tech export relaxations.
• The Dow struggles at the $42,959 resistance level, with technical divergence signalling potential price shifts.
• Positive sentiment is seen with 5 Dow stocks at 52-week highs, but mixed risk indicators suggest caution.
• Bond auctions and inflation data will influence future market movement, with higher inflation possibly triggering a selloff.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.