you do raise some good points. in regards to who is leading the herd in the same direction, ...
... whilst i do agree that everyone sees charts and indicators and interpret them in different ways, i do not discount that TA is an important tool in making a trading decision be it right or wrong.
im a noob btw, so take what i say with a pinch of salt but its just my thoughts on things.
Thanks I have my moments
You know in my opinion this forum is about exchanging ideas, listening and learning. And as long we can have a civilized exchange of info I'm all for it! I stopped wanting to be right a long time ago. I think it's one of the key elements you need to set aside if you want to succeed in day trading. Because you're gonna be wrong very often
! But when I read some posts on this forum, I read a lot of anger and frustration. Now I wonder... Could it be from not getting the results people are hoping for... Hoping and wishing is what they do in fairy tales.
But back to the subject. Yep I only trade futures and mainly forex as well. And yes I saw the move in the €/$ today. Skipped two or three entries this morning because of low volume, would have been small losses, but missed my entry today @ 1.4309 and would have ben stopped out by my trail @ 1.4437 You miss out on the winners on some days, just like you miss out on the losers on other days.
Yeah there is indeed talk about round numbers. But what is the definition of round numbers? Is it e.g. 1.30, 1.40, 1.50 etc in the €/$ or are numbers like 1.3100, 1.4200 and 1.5500 the round numbers? Or are there even more possibilities? I seriously wouldn't know :|
And about today's example in your chart. You'll be surprised that I can show you just as many examples that did work as the ones that didn't work. Eventhough price broke out on the upside or downside...
I fully agree with you that TA is an important tool in decision making for many traders. I mean it helps a lot if you can say e.g.:"ah my MACD shows me I need to enter a long position at this moment". Rather than:"f*ck I have totally nothing that shows me what to do" at that very same moment". Though the outcome of both trades will be exactly
the same (it's not that entering on the basis of TA at the same price and at the same moment gives you a better result than that same entry on the basis of nothing) the moment of entry is more easy, because you have something to hold on to!
So TA has a lot to do with the mental issues involved in trading and little or nothing with predicting future price development. Unfortunately it is widely used for the second reason and that's why around 99% of all vendors are teaching you to trade on the basis of TA. Newbie's think:"ah when I learn how to read TA, I'm gonna make profits in the markets". And that's why 90% of all day traders fail. The few that succeed learned to let go of TA to some sort of extent before they run out of cash. The 90% that failed would have been much better off with a 6 to 12 months mental training. That doesn't mean that they will automatically all succeed, but I believe the succes rate will be much higher.
Just google "day trading strategy" and you'll find tens to hundres of vendors who will teach you how to trade based on TA. Now I wonder is it that all those that want to learn how to trade can't find one of these vendors? Or is it that what these vendors are actually selling is complete crap? If these vendors were actually able to teach you how to trade based on TA the success rate would be much higher then that 10%
And since TA is being put in the market as the "future price predictor" I think it is one the biggest frauds on the planet with the absolute most brilliant marketing unit behind it
!!
But as I said in the beginning, this is just my opinion and I'm not telling anyone to say that I'm right (or wrong). Everybody is free to use the info to his own advantage
!
