Harry The Cat

Sigma-D

Established member
648 62
Leave my kids out of this.

I haven't read "Kittens" but from memory the dude's cat was both dead and alive - not one or the other. Which in this context is equivalent to saying the DOW closes at 16928 AND 17060.

"There are ways of trading large moves without knowing direction". Are you assuming a large move would be on increasing volatility and therefore you could trade that through long strangles and straddles, back spreads and debit spreads? Or do you have a preferred alternative method? Or is it nothing to do with IV?

Back to the question on the asymmetric nature of memory, for that one link you posted to a near as damn it spot on call, how many links could you post to less successful calls? I'm really not trying to embarrass you, but as you've been so kind as to engage with a flea infested mog on this topic, I'm keen to explore the tricks that humans play with their minds on themselves in convincing themselves they're better than their results suggest.
 

postman

Legendary member
27,075 3,568
...
Back to the question on the asymmetric nature of memory, for that one link you posted to a near as damn it spot on call, how many links could you post to less successful calls? I'm really not trying to embarrass you, but as you've been so kind as to engage with a flea infested mog on this topic, I'm keen to explore the tricks that humans play with their minds on themselves in convincing themselves they're better than their results suggest.

I really dont know I havent kept track but if you want to help me I have 3 calls running at the moment.
1. Posted at 7.30 Monday morning Dax bounces off 9750.
2. Dax goes back to 10,000
3. Posted on Sunday I believe, S&P to finish the week at 2008.

You can add Dow 17,060 close today.
Who knows it might improve my trading and everyone could use that. :)

I admit it is folly to try and guess the level of a market in advance especially 5 or more days (anything could happen) but the low volatility makes things more predictable.
 

Sigma-D

Established member
648 62
I really dont know I havent kept track but if you want to help me I have 3 calls running at the moment.
1. Posted at 7.30 Monday morning Dax bounces off 9750.
2. Dax goes back to 10,000
3. Posted on Sunday I believe, S&P to finish the week at 2008.

You can add Dow 17,060 close today.
Who knows it might improve my trading and everyone could use that. :)
I hardly think you need help monitoring these calls. But in any event, this doesn't really qualify as trading. Making calls on what levels might or might not be reached is one thing, but as you enumerated earlier, there are a number of factors which need to be met in order to trade successfully. Without method, entry, exit, stop and money management, the levels in and of themselves are nothing more than a 'guess my weight' game. That's not a value judgement of course as it's all good fun, but it's not really anythin to do with trading professionally.

I admit it is folly to try and guess the level of a market in advance especially 5 or more days (anything could happen) but the low volatility makes things more predictable.
Really? Perhaps I'm too suspicious for my own good, but when things get quiet around my neighborhood, I know somethings going down and the fit will hit the shand real soon. I've would have thought it sensible to buy volatility when it's flat, not make predictions on outrights.
 

Sigma-D

Established member
648 62
Good post, and very true. As you say, the penchant for so-called 'live calls'* and predictions on market levels is very popular with retail traders (it's also v popular with scammers). I guess ultimately it's an ego game - by which I mean for many people it's more important to be right than make money. Frankly, if someone tried this sh*t in a professional setting they'd be laughed out of the door...
the Ego factor was one I thought important enough to address early on in this thread. I'm pleased to receive additional support for the significance of it. But surely even professional traders have egos - notwithstanding dire Hollywood versions of how they think traders should be characterised - but instead of 'guess the level' is it more likely 'look how much I made' this day/week.month/quarter/year? Unless they are all totally devoid of ego - or is that just the old hands that have been doing it for longer than any of the bright young stars?

Trading is about maximising risk adjusted returns. Unfortunately that's a topic almost no-one in the retail arena seems interested in.
I'm interested.

Presumably risk-adjusted returns means comparing your reward with your initial risk. And possibly drawdown (MAE?). I'm sure there are some delightfully complex ratios with grand names which model various performance criteria. But is it basically all down to how much you make compared with how much you risk?

And is the effort to maximise these risk adjusted returns simply a function of using less risk and/or making more reward? That sounds like an optimum theoretical strategy of course, but the operational basis under which you effect those functions is presumably the tough bit.

The more I scout this site the more I am inclined to suspect that if I ever were to start trading, it wouldn't be outright directionals, for a number of reasons, but the most significant being that most on here appear to be doing just that and I get the vibe not all are doing terribly well.
 

counter_violent

Legendary member
11,027 2,919
the Ego factor was one I thought important enough to address early on in this thread. I'm pleased to receive additional support for the significance of it. But surely even professional traders have egos - notwithstanding dire Hollywood versions of how they think traders should be characterised - but instead of 'guess the level' is it more likely 'look how much I made' this day/week.month/quarter/year? Unless they are all totally devoid of ego - or is that just the old hands that have been doing it for longer than any of the bright young stars?

I'm interested.

Presumably risk-adjusted returns means comparing your reward with your initial risk. And possibly drawdown (MAE?). I'm sure there are some delightfully complex ratios with grand names which model various performance criteria. But is it basically all down to how much you make compared with how much you risk?

And is the effort to maximise these risk adjusted returns simply a function of using less risk and/or making more reward? That sounds like an optimum theoretical strategy of course, but the operational basis under which you effect those functions is presumably the tough bit.

The more I scout this site the more I am inclined to suspect that if I ever were to start trading, it wouldn't be outright directionals, for a number of reasons, but the most significant being that most on here appear to be doing just that and I get the vibe not all are doing terribly well.

Yes I agree but when this topic comes up (playing both sides) it usually causes a complete **** storm from those who can only think in one direction.
 

Sigma-D

Established member
648 62
Yes I agree but when this topic comes up (playing both sides) it usually causes a complete **** storm from those who can only think in one direction.
Story of my life. But one way or another there will be moments even if I have stay up all night. I'm sure it's the little things or maybe just one thing but more than this I wish I would over again happily live while we're young.
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
Professionally speaking , yes they wont give a damn about live calls or directional calls , call it whatever you want , nor they will care about unverified selective screen shots that's for sure , tbh they wont get attracted by a randomly profitable trader either , even if he has a long verified track record , they care more about how its done , everything is automated these days ...
 

postman

Legendary member
27,075 3,568

Sonicscooter

Experienced member
1,811 351
"The more I scout this site the more I am inclined to suspect that if I ever were to start trading"

So, you don't trade, i will be happy to read your posts when you have done so for a while, to see how it affects your theories.

Regards Shane.
 
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tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
It's a wonder that people pay '2-20' if everything is automated... maybe you should tell them :rolleyes:

Tell them what ?!
You are talking about hedge funds now , different animal and different requirements . Either way your comment is irrelevant , as they pay to have access to ... ...
 
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Sonicscooter

Experienced member
1,811 351
"The more I scout this site the more I am inclined to suspect that if I ever were to start trading"

So, you don't trade, i will be happy to read your posts when you have done so for a while, to see how it affects your theories.

Regards Shane.

CV, why did you edit my post as it is exactly the same....you didn't change anything....?
 
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counter_violent

Legendary member
11,027 2,919
Automation is the way to go anyhow. Developing, monitoring and managing systems is probably a far better use of time than "waiting for set ups", which doesn't pay the wages, and even after it sets up, has a 50/50 chance at best of going your way.
 
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