Greece may exit the Euro ?

[hhiusa]

Yes I do think so indeed.

Grexit is in the price already. As you are doing pre-prep work, every other institution and country is likely to do so too if not already done.

1. Don't see EUR falling below par with USD
2. Sterling may gain a little but all things being the same not by much
3. CHF likely to gain but not by much or steps will be taken to stall it's rise
4. SEK may lose/gain don't know enough about it, but can't see how Grexit should influence it by much. Likely to be BAU

The negatives are likely to be borne by the Greek people as a consequence of their stupid bloody minded politicians imo. One hopes they'll see sense.

Well you may certainly see it that way. I don't believe it is in the price already but that's entirely up to you.

I think you aren't seeing the whole picture. Greece's default will have a major effect on every market, be it good and bad. Switzerland is already becoming stronger and a financial haven to protect against the unstable Euro. It is not just the currency but the stock market (SIX). In regards to Sweden and Norway, they do business with Europe so it will have an effect. I don't just trade FOREX. As one should diversify in stocks, one should diversify in markets; equities, FOREX, bonds, hedge funds. The NOK, SEK and DKK are great because the economies they are tied to.

Thanks for re-opening the poll.

I imagine the Euro might rise on a Grexit and fall on a Brexit.

I doubt the Euro will rise on a Grexit. The GBP is likely to drop and the CHF and/or SIX will soar. Vote at Brexit 2016 Cameron Referendum.

 

[Splitlink]

All you Forex traders should have learned one thing by now.

Wait and see!

 

[Atilla]

Well you may certainly see it that way. I don't believe it is in the price already but that's entirely up to you.

I think you aren't seeing the whole picture. Greece's default will have a major effect on every market, be it good and bad. Switzerland is already becoming stronger and a financial haven to protect against the unstable Euro. It is not just the currency but the stock market (SIX). In regards to Sweden and Norway, they do business with Europe so it will have an effect. I don't just trade FOREX. As one should diversify in stocks, one should diversify in markets; equities, FOREX, bonds, hedge funds. The NOK, SEK and DKK are great because the economies they are tied to.



I doubt the Euro will rise on a Grexit. The GBP is likely to drop and the CHF and/or SIX will soar. Vote at Brexit 2016 Cameron Referendum.

Eur/Usd fell to 1.05 when Greece elections issue first started hitting headlines.

Tsipras's party - anti-austerity also won the elections. One may consider this to be the undesired outcome too. So if the Euro fell to 1.05 back then it has been rising since. Obviously, the Euro rise may well be reflected on the Fed's rate decision and strong/weak dollar too. Main point is whether the exit is priced in / or not and impact to rest of Europe - I think it is and Fed's will be the determining factor not Grexit.

Growth numbers and GDP coming from Italy, Spain and France don't look too bad. There is stabilisation. ECB also printing money. I feel we are in a much better place than before.

Yes we still have debt but given Europes production/manufacturing base nothing raising a bit taxation by hitting financial transaction with a small levy can't put right. That's just my opinion.


I really do feel it will be BAU. Key issue is Fed rate decision and a BIG balloon in company valuations which have been distorted by QE and free money. Markets don't move in straight lines. China, Japan and Russia are also side issues.

One must bear in mind the short term economic cycle of 7 years occurs irrespective of events that surround us. We are certainly due a correction.

 

[hhiusa]

I ask this you (Atilla) this solely from curiosity but is English your first language or do you just type too fast and forget to grammar check. Sometimes I can't read your posts.:innocent:

 

[Atilla]

I ask this you (Atilla) this solely from curiosity but is English your first language or do you just type too fast and forget to grammar check. Sometimes I can't read your posts.:innocent:

That's a relief I was beginning to think you were stupid.

 

[hhiusa]

That's a relief I was beginning to think you were stupid.

The grammar of your posts did raise some questions. So which languages do you speak? I know a few myself.

 

[Atilla]

The grammar of your posts did raise some questions. So which languages do you speak? I know a few myself.

I speak English. One tries ones best.

Which parts do you have trouble ubderstanding?

 

[hhiusa]

So if the Euro fell to 1.05 back then it has been rising since. Obviously, the Euro rise may well be reflected on the Fed's rate decision and strong/weak dollar too. Main point is whether the exit is priced in / or not and impact to rest of Europe - I think it is and Fed's will be the determining factor not Grexit.

Growth numbers and GDP coming from Italy, Spain and France don't look too bad. There is stabilisation. ECB also printing money. I feel we are in a much better place than before.

Yes we still have debt but given Europes production/manufacturing base nothing raising a bit taxation by hitting financial transaction with a small levy can't put right. That's just my opinion.

Huh?

I really do feel it will be BAU. Key issue is Fed rate decision and a BIG balloon in company valuations which have been distorted by QE and free money. Markets don't move in straight lines. China, Japan and Russia are also side issues.

One must bear in mind the short term economic cycle of 7 years occurs irrespective of events that surround us. We are certainly due a correction.

I am curious about the parts highlighted in blue.

 

[Atilla]

Huh?



I am curious about the parts highlighted in blue.

Quite right yes doesn't read well at all. My bad.

I think that's me rushing and being in between tasks. I'll spend a few mins editing.


Tsipras's party - anti-austerity also won the elections. One may consider this to be the undesired outcome too. So if the Euro fell to 1.05 back then it has been rising since. Obviously, the Euro rise may well be reflected on the Fed's rate decision and strong/weak dollar too. Main point is whether the exit is priced in / or not and impact to rest of Europe - I think it is and Fed's will be the determining factor not Grexit.

Post elections, the Euro fell back to 1.05. If we make the assumption that the anti-austerity party winning the elections was not the desired outcome expected by the markets then 1.05 marks the lows.

However, the Euro has subsequently risen to 1.10+ since then, despite the negotiations not going as well as parties involved may have expected or desire.

Thus, the rise in the Euro may not be because of optimism about the negotiations in progress but more related to Fed's rate decision and strengthening dollar index against other currencies.

In summary; imo Grexit is priced in but more importantly it will be Fed's interest rate considerations that will determine the Euro.



Growth numbers and GDP coming from Italy, Spain and France don't look too bad. There is stabilisation. ECB also printing money. I feel we are in a much better place than before.

Yes we still have debt but given Europes production/manufacturing base nothing raising a bit taxation by hitting financial transaction with a small levy can't put right. That's just my opinion.


Given that Europe has a strong production manufacturing base, the debt can be managed and paid back by levying taxes and introducing the new financial transaction tax EU-FTT



Does that read better?

I'm afraid I don't proof read or spell check every post. Do jump around a lot. Information overload perhaps, I don't know... Fleeting concentration and attention.

Thank you for pointing it out. Often I'm not aware and certainly is atrocious grammar.


Haha, just re-read and still writing short notes, sort of bullet points and incomplete sentences. Not sure if there is a cure. Have a good day

 

[hhiusa]

IMF's chief economist says euro zone could cope with Grexit. Currency traders are flocking to the greenback as fears abound over Greece’s shaky finances. The U.S. dollar soars to a one-month high against several currencies on Tuesday.

After a three-day weekend, market participants are finding the U.S. dollar’s gains are also fueled by last Friday’s U.S. consumer-price index surprise, and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that a rate hike remains on the cards for this year.

 

[2be]

I wander how many question the logic behind the statements of the current Greek administration.

"While Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras wrote in French newspaper Le Monde that any intransigence wasn’t the fault of his four-month-old administration, a senior German lawmaker said it was down to Greece to adhere to reforms agreed to before Tsipras took power. An international official, who asked not to be identified, said creditors were discussing a deal to be presented to Greece as a way of ending the impasse.
“The lack of an agreement so far is not due to the supposed intransigent, uncompromising and incomprehensible Greek stance,” Tsipras said in the article published on Sunday. “It is due to the insistence of certain institutional actors on submitting absurd proposals and displaying a total indifference to the recent democratic choice of the Greek people.”"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ars-as-tsipras-warns-bell-may-toll-for-europe

Sadly a lot of Greek people are suffering, but it is due to their own mismanagement.
Apart of wasting a lot of money they seem to loose a common sense too.
The logic of democratically electing government which promises what it cannot deliver, and base all the arguments on that democratic election surely places all the burden to deliver the promises on such elected government. Mr Tsipras and his cronies seem to blame everybody else, apart from his own failure to deliver what they have promised.
If knowing my bank account is empty, nevertheless I promise my son to get him a house and find I still have nothing in the bank account, it would be silly to blame the bank for my failure to fail to deliver on the promise.
Greeks have done even worse that this, they elected the government based on the promises that they cannot deliver, and argue that such democratically elected Greek government has right to screw up everybody else and blame everybody else for all their problems. This is certainly insane.
Where does it lead to? Who knows.
Such inconsistencies unfortunately exist and plague our generation, with many sad consequences when the reality eventually catches up with us.
I wish all the Greek people prosperity and genuine well being.

 

[Splitlink]

I wander how many question the logic behind the statements of the current Greek administration.

"While Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras wrote in French newspaper Le Monde that any intransigence wasn’t the fault of his four-month-old administration, a senior German lawmaker said it was down to Greece to adhere to reforms agreed to before Tsipras took power. An international official, who asked not to be identified, said creditors were discussing a deal to be presented to Greece as a way of ending the impasse.
“The lack of an agreement so far is not due to the supposed intransigent, uncompromising and incomprehensible Greek stance,” Tsipras said in the article published on Sunday. “It is due to the insistence of certain institutional actors on submitting absurd proposals and displaying a total indifference to the recent democratic choice of the Greek people.”"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ars-as-tsipras-warns-bell-may-toll-for-europe

Sadly a lot of Greek people are suffering, but it is due to their own mismanagement.
Apart of wasting a lot of money they seem to loose a common sense too.
The logic of democratically electing government which promises what it cannot deliver, and base all the arguments on that democratic election surely places all the burden to deliver the promises on such elected government. Mr Tsipras and his cronies seem to blame everybody else, apart from his own failure to deliver what they have promised.
If knowing my bank account is empty, nevertheless I promise my son to get him a house and find I still have nothing in the bank account, it would be silly to blame the bank for my failure to fail to deliver on the promise.
Greeks have done even worse that this, they elected the government based on the promises that they cannot deliver, and argue that such democratically elected Greek government has right to screw up everybody else and blame everybody else for all their problems. This is certainly insane.
Where does it lead to? Who knows.
Such inconsistencies unfortunately exist and plague our generation, with many sad consequences when the reality eventually catches up with us.
I wish all the Greek people prosperity and genuine well being.

I agree with every word that you have written. At the same time, the money was lent to them in the first place. This is a mess and the result of the greed of all parties. Whatever the solution is going to be, one thing is sure, someone will come out of it worse off

 

[hhiusa]

Kind of a pointless statement as someone will always be worse off at the expense of someone else gain. There cannot be a winner without a loser.

 

[Atilla]

Kind of a pointless statement as someone will always be worse off at the expense of someone else gain. There cannot be a winner without a loser.

Not true at all.

Good negotiations are based on win win scenarios, best outcome for both parties.

They may not always end that way but that is the objective of negotiations. If that wasn't the case we wouldn't have any equilibrium price at all. Would we?


Think before you knock. :idea:


Think positive!


ET says be good.

 

[hhiusa]

Not true at all.

Good negotiations are based on win win scenarios, best outcome for both parties.

Sorry but it is either a zero-sum game or a variable-sum game. No matter what, in any form of interaction, the amount of power remains the same or in the variable sum is borrowed across time to increase the amount in the present. Someone has to lose something in order to give something no matter how perfect the compromise is.

They may not always end that way but that is the objective of negotiations. If that wasn't the case we wouldn't have any equilibrium price at all. Would we?

We don't have any equilbrium in price. We wouldn't have any volatility in the market if things were always in equilibrium. In any system be it quantum-like or financial, equilibrium is never truly achieved. We are always bouncing around it with period of peaks and troughs. That may be the objective of negations, but it is rarely the outcome. Look up Foucault's ideas on economics and the economics of exchange in everyday life.

Think before you knock. :idea:

ditto :smart:

 

[Atilla]

Sorry but it is either a zero-sum game or a variable-sum game. No matter what, in any form of interaction, the amount of power remains the same or in the variable sum is borrowed across time to increase the amount in the present. Someone has to lose something in order to give something no matter how perfect the compromise is.



We don't have any equilbrium in price. We wouldn't have any volatility in the market if things were always in equilibrium. In any system be it quantum-like or financial, equilibrium is never truly achieved. We are always bouncing around it with period of peaks and troughs. That may be the objective of negations, but it is rarely the outcome. Look up Foucault's ideas on economics and the economics of exchange in everyday life.



ditto :smart:

If you reead Splitlink's post again, there are no references to winners and losers. Thiat view and choice of words are only your interpretation.

In games there are winners and losers, but not in negotiations.

 

[hhiusa]

If you reead Splitlink's post again, there are no references to winners and losers. Thiat view and choice of words are only your interpretation.

In games there are winners and losers, but not in negotiations.

I would like to envision your world without losers but experience has unfortunately shown me the contrary. What is that you think negotiations are exactly. The very concept and need for negotiations exist because people and the nations they inhabit are self-interested. They are negotiated because they each want their own way but that can't happen. Take Greece for example, they want to have their cake and eat it too and Germany and most of Europe will not oblige. Negotiations only work if they have reasonable demands. Stating a definition, does not mean it is the reality. Not everyone can be pleased all the time. What is politics but a game. Games by definition is anything people play with rules. I would say this qualifies.

 

[Atilla]

I would like to envision your world without losers but experience has unfortunately shown me the contrary. What is that you think negotiations are exactly. The very concept and need for negotiations exist because people and the nations they inhabit are self-interested. They are negotiated because they each want their own way but that can't happen. Take Greece for example, they want to have their cake and eat it too and Germany and most of Europe will not oblige. Negotiations only work if they have reasonable demands. Stating a definition, does not mean it is the reality. Not everyone can be pleased all the time. What is politics but a game. Games by definition is anything people play with rules. I would say this qualifies.

I was basically objecting to your post, regarding pointless statement. Not only was it rude, it was incorrect in its substance from my perspective.

Simply pointing out that negotiations can have multiple outcomes other than win or lose.

For example with parties walking away with better, worse, balanced or optimal outcomes. Negotiation involves give and take - compromise. That's all.


Best regards

 

[hhiusa]

Why no one say regards or best
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-02/the-best-e-mail-signature-is-actually-the-worst

A deal may actually be in sight for Greece. I guess I will have to wait until July for the default.

 

[fayalac]

Greece is not an important support for euro, they are not a strong economy and their weight on the eurozone is meanningless, but it would be shocking at the investors eyes, it could mean many things and none of those is good, but it woulnt also be the end of the euro, Germany, France and Italy can support it, the rest of the european economies are not strong enough as to finish with that corrency