Goldman says Brent crude will hit $130

Liquid validity said:
I don't know about anyone else, but all I'm saying is make your own mind up.
Don't be lead by GS or any other bank for that matter...
If you can't make your own trading decisions, learn how to.
Your money.
Your decision.
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Yep, we're at the stage were you don't know if they're double bluffing their bluff..:D But what's for sure they'll be using their own unique form of 'hedging', only they won't get caught...again...
 
Liquid validity said:
:LOL: No one is suggesting that is the case, certainly not me.
What I'm talking about is Abacus and Paulson...

Abacus is the bandwagon they created and burned, not the f***in subprime collapse...
That is what I was referring to ;)

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6404178n
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-1bn-fine-to-draw-line-under-fraud-trial.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/goldman-s-big-short-is-levin-s-big-target.html

Just for the record, personally I think anyone who didn't see any of this coming was a sucker,
I was expecting a housing crash / mortgage crisis from 20006.
So were many others who were ignored (excuse the heinous offence of posting a Guardian link :cheesy: ):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/31/creditcrunch-gillian-tett-financial-times

Gotta go, being measured up for a new tin foil hat today ;)
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i wernet talkin about you mate :)
 
dmt257 said:
Question.....

Goldman said sell oil a month ago on poor fundamentals.

Prices drop 10%. Goldman says buy.

Have the fudamentals changed that much?

I see indications of lower world economic growth based on recent data from far and wide, QE ending, price inflation rising bringing prospect of higher interest rates. I think they are worse than 1 month ago.
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actually they closed out their re3commendation on a basket of commodities because the risk reward had narrowed too much. now the RR is back on again, so they restated their view.
 
I wonder how much risk they and their clients have in Glencore? Could a commods. crash/smash smash them out of the park..?
 
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Here's a tip for many of you -

Forget about Soros, Goldman Sachs, BarCap, and any other hedge fund or big firm you care to mention.

Why?

Because they only let information out that they want out.

This they find useful for many reasons, but the main one is to make money. So when they say buy this or that, there's a very good chance they have a monster position and they need (mug) bids and (mug) punters to sell too.

Or maybe they really do think it's a buy, but of course you'll never know the real reason.

This is a very dirty business, and the best players are often the dirtiest, and they LOVE to take advantage of the naive, ie those that take what is announced at a) face value and b) think it's relevant.

So if you want to make money in this game, the best person to listen to is yourself and nobody else otherwise your head will get in all sorts of trouble never knowing at any one time who to listen to and trust. Today for example you think crude is a buy, but tomorrow Goldman's says it's a sell, the following day Soros is 'rumoured' to have gone long and on and on with the madness.

So when your head is messed up you're almost guaranteed to lose, and lose big.
 
Commercials take commodities up. Large traders bought it (hedge funds or banks etc). They want to dump it to either small speculators (they seem to neutral) or commercials (well they will buy anyway), hence all this mass media. This usually means prices would come down instead of going up at least in the short term.

I would bet on it going down for now only. Its a fight between commercials and large traders with crude oil and commercials usually win the battle in the end.

In simpler terms. Commercials need oil to run their respective industries. They sold it to large traders because there was less demand and more supply and they see this continuing. Large traders now have the stock piled up ready to be delivered but no one really to sell it to other than the commercials. They paid too much for it and usually the first ones to go in would start taking their profits which can cause further price reductions in the oil price. This is a natural cycle.
 
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All large traders (hedge funds, investment banks, commodity funds etc) at the moment have massive contracts in crude oil and if you see commercials (the folks that actually use crude or produce it or hedge it) are net sellers.

Small speculators are on the neutral side but these expiring contracts need to be dumped on someone which would then again be commercials. They would want to start stocking it up cheap. I believe oil prices are going down this summer.

I could be proven wrong and they may still rally but then large traders have to run out of steam. They are at historical highs right now. Higher than even 2008.

Short oil futures.

Good thing with reduced oil prices is that it might cause the strong markets recovery back in september and october when the buying season kicks in.
 
safvan said:
The decline in prices should begin this week.
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Why, military boots on the ground in Libya, USA stats on manufacturing and consumer confidence collapsing, USA house prices falling back to 2002 levels (30% fall worst fall since the great depression), seasonal factors, slowdown in BRICS demand..? Or 'cos Goldman Sachs are lying about $130+?
 
Black Swan said:
Why, military boots on the ground in Libya, USA stats on manufacturing and consumer confidence collapsing, USA house prices falling back to 2002 levels (30% fall worst fall since the great depression), seasonal factors, slowdown in BRICS demand..? Or 'cos Goldman Sachs are lying about $130+?
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Not really sure about what you posted is the reason.

All I know is that right now large hedge funds are dumping oil contracts to the commercials and they have started buying it. When commercials start buying (they use the markets to hedge), the prices go down and when they sell the prices go up.

Goldman Sachs could be right about oil but that would only start happening when commercials end buying and start selling it to them after they have finished their buying.
 
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There it goes. The decline starts.. good for the economy. I do not want the arabs to get richer!
 
safvan said:
There it goes. The decline starts.. good for the economy. I do not want the arabs to get richer!
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Would that be the vast majority of the indigenous population that lives on $2 a day, or the corrupt regimes, the most corrupt being Saudi?
 
safvan said:
There it goes. The decline starts.. good for the economy. I do not want the arabs to get richer!
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yep, after a veritably negligible $6 brent crude rise between your posts.

i assume you wld have got stopped out prior to tuesdays high of $120.
 
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