Gold Wave Count - 2010-09

[snowrider]

I am starting a new thread for September 2010. My wave counts in last month can be found from:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/99826-gold-wave-count-2010-08-a.html

For past long term view, please see:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/98626-gold-wave-count.html

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [], [[C]]
Weekly – , [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], , [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

Here comes the week chart first. I'll post the daily chart later.

 

[snowrider]

Daily

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

08/31/2010

With today's surge, the bearish count basically can be ignored. After a flat double-3 consolidation, today's low could be counted as a wave-2, a wave-_a of wave-2, or a wave-_6.

 

[snowrider]

I did not make much profit on gold this week (08/30-09/03) because I had a bearish view in the beginning of the week. When I changed to bullish view, the market did not move fast. I set a tight stop today and got stopped out before this long weekend.

Now what? Bullish or bearish? IMO, if it does not go stright up next week, the long term bull market is over. Why? The timing of a cycle high is around now. Also the wave from 08/24's low till now can be counted as a 5, and it's the 5 of the 5 from 07/28's low. If the market wants to keep it's bullish count, it needs to convert this week's waves into a running flat. Stay tuned, I'll update the chart tomorrow.

 

[snowrider]

09/04/2010

Comments are welcome!

 

[slight]

Re: 09/04/2010

I am thinking we are more looking at the alternative count of yours. For me, on the daychart there is a wave 5 on its way ever since 07/28 of this year. I don't see any more bigger corrections coming until we got close to or topped that high ...

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

Re: 09/04/2010

I am thinking we are more looking at the alternative count of yours. For me, on the daychart there is a wave 5 on its way ever since 07/28 of this year. I don't see any more bigger corrections coming until we got close to or topped that high ...

Hi there, I totally agree. I am going to post my count for intraday in next posting.

 

[snowrider]

09/07/2010

Is gold at [E].V.5._5.__5 now? If so, $1262.3 (Comex GCZ10) should be the max for this bull move (because wave _3 must not be the smallest). Short it now with minimal risk (as my weekend's alternative count).

Comments are welcome! Please PM me for real time wave count.

(Note that the labeling of wave 1 in the attachment is not quite correct. It should be labelled on the high of 08/04/2010 for a flat double-3 correction to form wave 2. I submitted this post in a rush without checking.)

 

[slight]

Re: 09/07/2010

you may be right on that intraday count. i also see the waves ending, but cant really come up with a satisfying count .. many divergences, 5 waves could be done already, or another wave 4 and wave 5 are following .. I'll post a chart when I know more.

Is gold at [E].V.5._5.__5 now? If so, $1262.3 (Comex GCZ10) should be the max for this bull move (because wave _3 must not be the smallest). Short it now with minimal risk (as my weekend's alternative count).

Comments are welcome! Please PM me for real time wave count.

(Note that the labeling of wave 1 in the attachment is not quite correct. It should be labelled on the high of 08/04/2010 for a flat double-3 correction to form wave 2. I submitted this post in a rush without checking.)

 

[snowrider]

09/08/2010

Is gold at [E].V.5._5.__5 now? If so, $1262.3 (Comex GCZ10) should be the max for this bull move (because wave _3 must not be the smallest). Short it now with minimal risk (as my weekend's alternative count).

Comments are welcome! Please PM me for real time wave count.

(Note that the labeling of wave 1 in the attachment is not quite correct. It should be labelled on the high of 08/04/2010 for a flat double-3 correction to form wave 2. I submitted this post in a rush without checking.)

Comex December gold overshot to $1264.1. It violates Elliott wave principle by $1.8 if we count it as wave 5 ending. My short position with tight stop got stopped out, but I shorted it back in again. I expect gold to collapse and a new bear market to start if today's high is not overtaken.

 

[snowrider]

09/09/2010

Perfect Wave - So you can see that gold confirmed that it just finished [E].V.5._5, but what is next? From bear's view, the first target is $1215 area (i.e., wave-4), but my target is $1160 area (i.e., wave-IV). From bull's view, the market is struggling to form a wave-6 in order to get a 9-wave extension.

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

09/11/2010

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

09/14/2010

After the wave-5 (last week's high) was taken out by today's surge, based on current wave count, the next possible target for gold to finish its bull run is wave-9. In this case, the wave-8 needs to be in correction mode.

An alternative count is a-b-c-d-e. In this case, the bearish wave-1 needs to be impulsive mode.

 

[slight]

Re: 09/14/2010

What is wave-9 and wave-8??
I am surprised on this guy as well that it has been going up after taking a break before hitting 1265 area. However, it's done now pretty much .. I see 5 waves ending on multiple timeframes ... next week price should be declining is my guess. I exited my long a week ago in profit....

After the wave-5 (last week's high) was taken out by today's surge, based on current wave count, the next possible target for gold to finish its bull run is wave-9. In this case, the wave-8 needs to be in correction mode.

An alternative count is a-b-c-d-e. In this case, the bearish wave-1 needs to be impulsive mode.

 

[snowrider]

Re: 09/14/2010

What is wave-9 and wave-8??
I am surprised on this guy as well that it has been going up after taking a break before hitting 1265 area. However, it's done now pretty much .. I see 5 waves ending on multiple timeframes ... next week price should be declining is my guess. I exited my long a week ago in profit....

I exit my long about the same time as you did. I started shorting gold today. I'll post my intraday view in next post.

 

[snowrider]

09/17/2010

Today (09/17/2010) gold completed wave-7 or alternatively wave-e. The short term target has been hit with today's high. Why? The following impulsive segments wave-1, wave-3, wave-5, and wave-7 are of the same size. Also the alternative wave-a and wave-b-to-e are of the same size. The corrective segments wave-4(b) and wave-6(d) are of the same size. With this measurement, the current moving down should target $1260 area first.

 

[slight]

Good call shorting Gold I believe. I will put in a pending short on monday as well. Funnily enough, I heard on the radio on friday how gold is at its alltime high etc pp and I thought ... hm, now that they are talking about it in the radio I should take that as another argument for selling gold now

 

[snowrider]

Good call shorting Gold I believe. I will put in a pending short on monday as well. Funnily enough, I heard on the radio on friday how gold is at its alltime high etc pp and I thought ... hm, now that they are talking about it in the radio I should take that as another argument for selling gold now

Yes, gold bull needs to watch out in this area because a corretion is overdue. Also a warning sign is that from the long term chart (e.g., weekly chart), the price action starts showing some weakening because the parabolic curve of price movement is toward downside instead of the upside in a healthy bull market.

 

[snowrider]

09/18/2010

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

09/21/2010

The final climax or the bear's capitulation has not been seen yet. I was confused by today's surge. If you have some other alternative count, please share!