Gold 2011/12

Atilla said:
Both US and EU promised QE and bond purchases but new QE is very small (in the $20bns I read somewhere) in the US.

Recent hype about gold - I think was brought on to mug all the Indian seasonal buyers out of their money. But you know the guy on the street is wise and knows these are silly prices.

Increasingly I am thinking gold is now a mugs game. Risk is high and reward limited. I see more risk holding the stuff than equities with promise of dividend and capital growth as economic recovery kicks in.

To buy gold now one would need to have a very long term view on it.

Anyhow we are at a 50% retracement since May's 1530 so another bounce may transpire but lacks conviction imho.
Click to expand...

If (or should I say when) Obama is elected it wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce given Romney's strong Dollar overtures. I'm sure it may get some pops on poor economic data too, but should the recent better than forecast trend reverse, so will Gold's sell-off. I'm watching the 1630 area as my next downside ref. Silver is my thing though, better trading there.

If you want to observe strange investor activity, get yourself immersed in the 'Silver community.' It's an absolutely fascinating insight into irrational human behaviour. Seriously, behavioural scientists should study these guys. It's a riot. Totally different breed.

I got some interesting screenshots on my trading computer this morning of the Bullionvault Silver market mania which I'll post up tomorrow. Sometimes I can't believe the things I see.
 
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If you ever find a pic of the empty Fort Knox vault be sure to post it here please ;)
 
I'll qualify my earlier post with a few salient points:

The USD is still the only global currency with free floating rate and the liquidity
to support global trade - for the time being...
That is crucial in maintaining USD price control of gold.

Most gold bull views never mention the Chinese influence:
China Could Soon Announce That Their Gold Reserves Have Doubled - Business Insider
If the Chinese have gone too far down the boom and bust cycle, and have a
property slump, or unrest grows over the rich / poor divide, that could trigger
a reversal in Chinese gold policy.
If that reversal does not happen, then they stay on track towards their goal of reserve currency.

Obviously, if there is any truth in the market oracle link rsh01 posted:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37282.html
That would certainly change things...it remains to be seen whether it is factual.
I certainly wouldn't rule anything out...

We live in interesting times :)
 
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hi LV
Liquid validity said:
The USD is still the only global currency with free floating rate and the liquidity
to support global trade - for the time being...
That is crucial in maintaining USD price control of gold.
Click to expand...
you seem to ignore the fact that there are other forms of 'money' which can and are being used to trade....
China to use gold for purchase of Iranian oil, avoiding U.S. financial sanctions - Tehran Times

Liquid validity said:
Most gold bull views never mention the Chinese influence:
China Could Soon Announce That Their Gold Reserves Have Doubled - Business Insider
If the Chinese have gone too far down the boom and bust cycle, and have a
property slump, or unrest grows over the rich / poor divide, that could trigger
a reversal in Chinese gold policy.
Click to expand...
China have been buying gold (in record amounts in 2012) through the worsening economic conditions, thus contradicting your above assertion.


Liquid validity said:
Obviously, if there is any truth in the market oracle link rsh01 posted:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37282.html
That would certainly change things...it remains to be seen whether it is factual.
I certainly wouldn't rule anything out...
Click to expand...
the article is conjecture/opinion based on facts, the main one being the US not allowing Germany access to their gold.

with respect to your earlier link, isnt the Fed (QE1, QE2, QE infinity) the US bond market (ie the demand)? .

interesting times indeed.
 
dont think the gold market is fixed? think CBs dont care what price gold is? or who buys it?......

Greenspan (1998):
Private counterparties in oil contracts have virtually no ability to restrict the worldwide supply of this commodity. (Even OPEC has been less than successful over the years.) Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.

MR. MATTINGLY (the Fed’s general counsel 1995):
It’s pretty clear that these ESF [Exchange Stabilization Fund] operations are authorized. I don’t think there is a legal problem in terms of the authority. The statute is very broadly worded in terms of words like “credit” — it has covered things like the gold swaps — and it confers broad authority. Counsel at the White House called the Treasury’s general counsel today and asked, “Are you sure?” And the Treasury’s general counsel said, “I am sure.” Everyone is satisfied that a legal issue is not involved, if that helps.

CHAIRMAN MILLER (March 21, 1978, FOMC meeting)
So I think it's likely that the Treasury will start a program of selling gold, which I personally would favor. There are a lot of advantages in using gold because at least then we don't end up with debt and the currency risks that go with it.
That's why the possibility that gold would be sold caused the gold price to drop by $5. You don't have to sell gold; you just have to breathe [that you may] one day.

My Blog
Europe & US Supress Gold Prices While China Hoards Gold Reserves
Adrian Douglas: More Fed minutes document gold market manipulation | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

etc etc.
 
rsh01 said:
hi LV

you seem to ignore the fact that there are other forms of 'money' which can and are being used to trade....
China to use gold for purchase of Iranian oil, avoiding U.S. financial sanctions - Tehran Times

True, thats why I mentioned that the USD is not guaranteed to remain reserve currency.
PressTV - 'India to buy Iran oil in gold not dollars'
Dollar no longer primary oil currency - China begins to sell oil using Yuan -- Puppet Masters -- Sott.net
Its no secret that moves are underway to circumvent USD oil pricing.

China have been buying gold (in record amounts in 2012) through the worsening economic conditions, thus contradicting your above assertion.

Again true, the point of me posting that link was to show exactly the point you make.
I was talking of a potential reversal of that policy if the Chinese economic outlook
changes, not global conditions.


the article is conjecture/opinion based on facts, the main one being the US not allowing Germany access to their gold.

Fair point, that is why I said I don't discount the story.
Dealing purely in fact, not allowing access is not the same thing as saying
the gold has definitely gone.
Although, again I agree, no reasonable explanation is forthcoming, so it is
perhaps a logical conclusion.

with respect to your earlier link, isnt the Fed (QE1, QE2, QE infinity) the US bond market (ie the demand)? .

Certainly true that the Fed buys bonds, no secret there.
So does China:
Exclusive: U.S. lets China bypass Wall Street for Treasury orders | Reuters
chinas-us-debt-holdings-arent-threat
China Resumed Treasury Buys in July as Trade Surplus Widened - Businessweek

Bloomberg Quote:
“The biggest misconception in the marketplace is that Chinese buying of Treasuries has something to do with Treasuries,” said Krishna Memani, director of fixed income at OppenheimerFunds Inc. in New York, who manages $70 billion. “China buying Treasuries has everything to do with China’s trade position relative to the U.S. It’s entirely trade driven.”

That is still the main issue, other Govts. are forced for trade reasons to
suck up the effects of the FED's printing press.
That does not mean I think it will continue, or is the right policy.
All I am saying is that is the state of play at the moment.
Click to expand...
----------------------
 
rsh01 said:
nice trade atilla.

crazy that you think the 'the guy on the street' is a big player.....

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37282.html
Click to expand...

No I don't believe he is a big player but markets have their seasonal moments.

Talk of QE and any other possible factor pushing demand was put forward as the next big gold run taking it past 3000 and beyond...

Next big hope for the gold run is inflation. Legs n fingers crossed :cheesy:

Addenda: Assuming no beating war drums...
 
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How about that rampfest then boys and girls:LOL:

60 min pop and then nothing? Looks like it may have been mostly short covering to me. What new business buyer wants to move the market like that?
 
Gold bought on the dip yesterday as a safety trade. Unless you are a longer term or nimble intra-day trader risk is high for longs or shorts imo.
 
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Interesting action in gold.. while market sells off and dollar strengthen, gold goes up.

People start treating gold as save haven...
 
Yes better to trade Gold thinking about it as a currency rather than commodity.

USD/Gold or GBP/Gold pairs.
 
Plenty of acceptance above 1700 and at 1730ish level. The look below 1700 didn't last very long at all. Odds favour a move higher in the near future.


Gold.png
 
Hello everybody

I'm new in the forum.

I have Gold and Palladium, my target is 1800 and 700 but I think that we will see gold do break up this levels.

Regards and good trades
 
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