GBP vs USD what next?

[nickerson334]

Hi there

I think we've seen the same thing and yeah, the trend line is the only concern, it's pushed right onto it from below now so we'll see if it was a false breakdown or not.

If it runs down I should make it up on E/$, unless sod's law applies itself!





Edit: Oddly enough my Saxo Bank chart is not showing a break in the 1.8330 uptrend line at all. Its' placing it at 1.8560. What charts are you using? I use CMC and Saxo for back up. Trendline reading's though can be very different.

Edit 2: If it goes I'll be standing you a large one!

 

[Buk]

yeah....you'll punt it back on there ok....I've had me 'corn' out of this thing on the long side today, so gonna cover & call it a wrap.....too risky to roll it overnight at these levels (for me anyway!!)......live to scrap another day mate!.....still think we'll get fireworks........

Daily FX charts.................

 

[Buk]

well, the flag comes good David!!....holding nicely on the 30 min trend line & the overnight channel (8615 - 8660) appears to be the 'action' points for this morning!.....8550/60 allows some breathing space for another kick up should it decide to turn south??........interesting day looming......... ....the 'bear' in me won't be breaking the seal on the malt just yet though...... :cheesy:

ps: dunno what confirming 'signals' you use David, but a quick (& that's all it is.... ) glance at the daily chart shows it above the 50 day m.a/macd beheving itself but rsi pushing on overbought?!.....general trend ok though, so why try fight it?!!

 

[nickerson334]

Hey, it's going alright! Thanks 4 that!

Due to my short on the Euro/$ hallting at 1.2650 (I'd expected 1.2620) I'd gone a bit myopic (end fo day!) and hadn't seen GBP.

I'm out at at 654 or 725. Hopefuly this is a minor consolidation.

I find MACD useful with flags if I've been stopped out once before breakout and I'm having another go.

On the whole though I keep it simple, Flags and H&S usualy offer good P:L ratios, Double T reliable although hard to place initial stop with decent P:L

Trendlines for exiting trades.

200 MA, I find useful for judging inital aspects Cup & Handle formations and stop loss.

+I keep a permanet 50 EMA running on all charts just to keep me in the picture so to speak. Especialy useful for avoiding sideways movement and all that!

That's it really. I've looked at all the indicators (RSI, Stoch..) and they confuse my screen and head!

Thanks again for pointing that one out was on a 15 tick loss after a long day!

 

[Buk]

you're welcome!....I tend to 'keep it simple'.....price/volume/trend + the usual patterns......most of the indicators are lagging anyway, and yes....the pretty squiggles do play havoc on the eyes....

both of em (euro & cable) are tugging for direction at the mo, so taking a watching stance, could be in for a period of consolidation here....anyway, they'll reveal their hand in the not too distant....good luck today!........

 

[nickerson334]

thanks buk

U 2

 

[nickerson334]

Hi Buk

I'm getting USDCAD on 100 tick H&S breakdown (+ down through 12/01 uptrend line) . Will give that a run to 1.3110 I think.

 

[Buk]

yep, bang on....a move down thru 3215 will give you a run on that number......stay in the stirrups matey!....... :-0

 

[nickerson334]

Welcome to the wild west!

Nah..keeping it cool.

What sort of point runs do you look for (30, 100, 500 etc.?)

 

[Buk]

just be mindful of the trend line up on the 240 min!....3275 might give it legs back up to kiss that line.....but you've got good headroom at 3260!

when I'm punting on the daily, first objective is to trail stops to b/e.....I then judge the move entirely on price. Tend to follow a tick chart/1 min to manage it & just look for fades back to & away from entry......I play it purely on the short term trend David & move stops accordingly....sometimes tough to calculate a precise profit objective, but look for min 30 - 40 pip movements & add into a trending move.....

 

[Buk]

typical was yesterday's action.....opened long on a break thru 8550 on cable early doors & trailed it to 8610....shorted it on the slip down thru 8590 for 30 pips, and back long again on the break up thru 8580 to the 8600 line!.....purely price & intraday trends.....tight stops will protect you & offer a free ride, particularly on action around resistence/b.outs

 

[nickerson334]

Thanks for that. Took a small position at 229, out at 249 stop so no harm done.

Yeah, there's the theory (as I'm sure you know) that H&S, Dtops break down 100% of top to bottom of formation and flag breaks up 100% of flagpole so I use that as profit target, knocking off 10% at either end. I find that accurate and useful also when stopped out at say +40% then spotting another entry signal.

I'm defo with you on locking in around breakeven (although I never do it for the sake of b/e) and then going on to protect profit using the trendline and sup / res.

Out of GBPUSD at 715. Will shout you 3 pints if it goes! Must be off to monitor as above!

thanks for your insights. Sorry if I'm stating the obvious!

 

[Buk]

good on ya!!....no, not at all (stating the obvious), we all 'trade what we see' & there's no right or wrong. As long as we're comfortable with our individual strategies, and manage the positions carefully, the pips will stack or fall accordingly. I must admit, I prefer to 'trend' moves rather than scalp, but opportunities are just that, and I take em as I see em!!

 

[nickerson334]

yesterday GBP

Yeah, when you said you'd made your corn for the day on GBPUSD I figured you must have done it using the sup / res of the range.

I traded a similar method for a year and it was a more profitable strategy on paper than what I do now. The practice of it was too much for my poor little brain though (!) leading to the usuual hicups.


I think you've got a cooler head then I do so good on you as I know, as you've got the willpower to implement a strategy like that, you're flying!!

 

[Buk]

....thank you, but it doesn't always work out as planned!! I'm far from perfect, and make mistakes all the time, but try & analyse each hiccup as it presents itself....stops prevent me from becoming too 'emotional' & sure, nerve plays a part....but if I'm stopped out I sit & wait for my next move.....I always let the mkt tell ME when to punt, that way you're not chasing your tail all over the shop....as I say, I prefer to swing into moves on (as far as possible) confirmed break outs & add into em. I find having traded indices, Forex suits my style & it tends to move in a more orderly fashion ( )....the spikes can be a bit irksome, but hey.....it aint a perfect world........

 

[nickerson334]

Yeah, just been suckered out on USDCAD! Will get back in at 1.3212 though.

Got in tight stops averaging 675 on GBP so worst I can do so far this week is

Euro/$ -15
USDCAD -19
GBPUSD +100

That's what I like to see!

And yes, I agree 5 minutes out at least, a few deep breaths, and some serious analysis when stopped out to avoid jumping back in for the hell of it!

Possibly a slightly euphoric, pre-emptive trade on USDCAD although tighter stop was available than entry at 1.3212 so not worried about that one.

I moved to currencey also for same reasons. Can be slower paced but easier to predict. Trading the Dow and FTSE for the last 2 months would have been v. difficult anyhow. They just seems to be moving in fits and starts. Can't make head nor tail of it!

 

[Buk]

sorry mate, been watchin the action....still square!!.....yeah, they're stuck in a rut for the mo (indices)...be a nice short when it pans out tho. As will these two when the noise dies down & the loudest shouts the longest!!!........

 

[nickerson334]

I'm out 'til 2.30. Fresh air coffee etc.! Sold gbp at 678. Looks like I could have held to 730 but my brain cells are starting to scramble!

 

[nickerson334]

changed mind about leaving. Bought GBP at 690 and sold at 712. Pushed my luck

Sold USDCAD at 1.2260 looking for 1.2125 . Got OCO in at a profit now. Lunch! (not for wimps Mr. Gecko!

Hope you're standing aside or doing well.

 

[Buk]

good, good....not at all wimpish, she's lookin for legs!.....8700 seems to be the short frame fulcrum, they're certainly tuggin at her from both sides.....lookin at a pullback in the euro for a leg up to follow the cable rise!!....slow off the mark this morning!!!...