victoriajensen
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The pair did continue moving to the upside towards 1.3500. For now it is still very bullish and it will probably continue moving to the upside towards the last high at 1.3655.
victoriajensen
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GBP/USD found some resistance at 1.3550 and bounced off from that level but the move to the upside towards 1.3655 will probably continue next week.
The British pound was down against the US dollar on Friday. By the close of US trading, GBP/USD was trading at 1.3472, losing 0.42%. I believe that support is now at around 1.3221, Tuesday's low, and resistance is likely at 1.3550, the maximum of Friday's trading.
fxstrategist
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Gbpusd
The GBPUSD has been somewhat volatile just below the 1.3500 level, but it has not taken a clear direction.
The GBPUSD has been somewhat volatile just below the 1.3500 level, but it has not taken a clear direction.
I see the probability of a fall according to a bullish trend. I see several levels of support that can have an impact on market movements and also, with a breakdown of the trend and a change in the market movement, there will be growth with an impact on the levels of 1.3418 and 1.3386
Attachments
GBPUSD predictions from the VRM
I am also predicting the GBPUSD in the Forex forum thread
"Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics"
using the Volatility Response Model (VRM).
I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD finishing 5 pm 21st December in New York.
The GBPUSD has not yet found support above the centre of the short term trend channel now at 1.3390.
A description of the algorithm and format of the attached chart can be found in the first post of this thread.
For anybody interested in predictions for other FX pairs just follow the link at the end of these two documents.
I am also predicting the GBPUSD in the Forex forum thread
"Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics"
using the Volatility Response Model (VRM).
I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD finishing 5 pm 21st December in New York.
The GBPUSD has not yet found support above the centre of the short term trend channel now at 1.3390.
A description of the algorithm and format of the attached chart can be found in the first post of this thread.
For anybody interested in predictions for other FX pairs just follow the link at the end of these two documents.
Attachments
Gbp / Usd formed another wave and yet did not overcome the level of 1.3330, which will probably be reached again after the holidays. Or the level of 1.3345 will be too strong to keep the price and temporarily stop the fall.
Nevertheless, I see the probability of a price decline to 1.3307, will be in the priority in my forecast.
If the price breaks through resistance level 1.3387, the next level will be 1.3418
Nevertheless, I see the probability of a price decline to 1.3307, will be in the priority in my forecast.
If the price breaks through resistance level 1.3387, the next level will be 1.3418
Attachments
anon301501
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Watch my video when I post it... You'll see exactly what they did. Imo
fxstrategist
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Gbpusd
Today's daily candle on the GBPUSD closed as positive, but dont be fooled by the close. The candle has left a long upper shadow, indicating that the sellers may pressure the price lower.
Today's daily candle on the GBPUSD closed as positive, but dont be fooled by the close. The candle has left a long upper shadow, indicating that the sellers may pressure the price lower.
fxstrategist
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Gbp/usd
Good pullback on the GBP/USD to the 1.3900 level, but the zone may act as a resistance with a chance of seeing a bearish bounce to the 55 day EMA around the 1.3764.
Good pullback on the GBP/USD to the 1.3900 level, but the zone may act as a resistance with a chance of seeing a bearish bounce to the 55 day EMA around the 1.3764.
Traders closely monitor the progress of negotiations on Brexit and set to raise the rate of the Bank of England
GBPUSD in the Asian session, has renewed a multi-year high, having tested the mark of 1.4354. This is the highest rate since the brexit referendum in June 2016 and the first daily close above 1.43. It should be noted that this year – January 25 – the currency has already tried to overcome the level of 1.43, but then it ended with a rapid reversal and a rapid fall. This time the momentum seems to be more convincing.
Over the past 12 months, the pound has risen by more than 14% against the dollar. Since the beginning of the year, the GBP has grown against the us dollar by 6% and topped the list of the most productive currencies B-10, and this despite the difficult relationship between Europe and Britain.
The main catalyst for growth was the agreement between Brussels and London on the terms of the transition period. Additional-the market hopes to raise the Bank of England rate.
Brexit talks
This week will be another round of talks on Brexit, which can amend this steadily bullish trend. Today, the parties will discuss the nuances at technical meetings, and tomorrow will be the main battle for the Irish border. Recall that this issue is one of the most controversial and problematic for both sides. London wants to resolve it by October 2018, and it is likely that the pound will trade throughout the spring and summer with a focus on progress in the trade negotiations.
"These negotiations can potentially be difficult, periodically stalling, which can put pressure on the pound. However, both sides are extremely interested in working out a realistic and constructive trade agreement", — says Brian Martin, chief economist of ANZ.
Bank Of England Policy
The Bank of England is going to raise the rate next month. The market places in the price the probability of such an outcome at the level of 93%, which can also support the pound at this stage – at least until the meeting of the monetary policy Committee. Meanwhile, the regulator in recent statements promises us a "limited and gradual" tightening, so, according to Bloomberg surveys, most experts expect only one increase this year and the next – not earlier than February 2019 at best.
The regulator has taken a cautious position and tries not to inspire investors with excess hopes, despite the signs of acceleration of wage inflation and the absence of pronounced adverse effects of Brexit. This means that any hint of deterioration in economic dynamics can influence the decision of the Bank of England.
In this context, the reports on the labour market, inflation and retail sales released this week deserve special attention. If the data does not meet expectations, the pound will fly off its pedestal, despite the progress in negotiations on Brexit – the market will begin to lay in the price of the so – called pigeon tightening – that is, an increase in the rate combined with cautious comments and weak forecasts-or even radically revise their forecasts for monetary policy of the Bank of England.
GBPUSD in the Asian session, has renewed a multi-year high, having tested the mark of 1.4354. This is the highest rate since the brexit referendum in June 2016 and the first daily close above 1.43. It should be noted that this year – January 25 – the currency has already tried to overcome the level of 1.43, but then it ended with a rapid reversal and a rapid fall. This time the momentum seems to be more convincing.
Over the past 12 months, the pound has risen by more than 14% against the dollar. Since the beginning of the year, the GBP has grown against the us dollar by 6% and topped the list of the most productive currencies B-10, and this despite the difficult relationship between Europe and Britain.
The main catalyst for growth was the agreement between Brussels and London on the terms of the transition period. Additional-the market hopes to raise the Bank of England rate.
Brexit talks
This week will be another round of talks on Brexit, which can amend this steadily bullish trend. Today, the parties will discuss the nuances at technical meetings, and tomorrow will be the main battle for the Irish border. Recall that this issue is one of the most controversial and problematic for both sides. London wants to resolve it by October 2018, and it is likely that the pound will trade throughout the spring and summer with a focus on progress in the trade negotiations.
"These negotiations can potentially be difficult, periodically stalling, which can put pressure on the pound. However, both sides are extremely interested in working out a realistic and constructive trade agreement", — says Brian Martin, chief economist of ANZ.
Bank Of England Policy
The Bank of England is going to raise the rate next month. The market places in the price the probability of such an outcome at the level of 93%, which can also support the pound at this stage – at least until the meeting of the monetary policy Committee. Meanwhile, the regulator in recent statements promises us a "limited and gradual" tightening, so, according to Bloomberg surveys, most experts expect only one increase this year and the next – not earlier than February 2019 at best.
The regulator has taken a cautious position and tries not to inspire investors with excess hopes, despite the signs of acceleration of wage inflation and the absence of pronounced adverse effects of Brexit. This means that any hint of deterioration in economic dynamics can influence the decision of the Bank of England.
In this context, the reports on the labour market, inflation and retail sales released this week deserve special attention. If the data does not meet expectations, the pound will fly off its pedestal, despite the progress in negotiations on Brexit – the market will begin to lay in the price of the so – called pigeon tightening – that is, an increase in the rate combined with cautious comments and weak forecasts-or even radically revise their forecasts for monetary policy of the Bank of England.
Tough comments from Bank of England (BoE) representative Sanders suggest that he is likely to vote for an immediate rate hike next month, but after Carney's warnings on this week, the market is no longer as strongly convinced of this as before, says Jane Foley, senior analyst at Rabobank.
"The purpose of the monetary policy Committee (MPC) is to assess the current state and operational impact on economic activity. From this point of view, it is difficult not to agree with the comments made by Karni on Thursday. However, it can be argued that the MPC statement in February was too strong and too dogmatic," she says.
Next week, the UK GDP report for the 1st quarter will be released. Bloomberg consensus is 0.3% QoQ. There are some economists who are downgrading their forecasts after a recent series of weak data. Rabobank still predicts that the Bank of England will raise rates in may. However, weak data recently cast doubt on the further tightening of policy later this year, says Foley. For the pound, a rate hike in may means customer support. Nevertheless, the influence of the regulator's decision on the currency will not be so noticeable if the Committee makes it clear that it does not intend to hurry further.
May will be an interesting month for the pound and for other reasons. Earlier this month, there was a lot of talk about the traditional seasonal factor supporting the pound in April. Most likely, this provoked the opening of a number of speculative positions on the purchase, which may have yesterday capitulated on the background of comments Karni, the expert suggests. May, of course, does not promise a pound of seasonal surge in demand, she says.
Another serious risk for the pound lies in politics. Media reports indicated that the EU rejected the British proposal on the border with Ireland. This reinforces expectations that the UK may have to stay within the customs Union. This is contrary to the Prime Minister's promises and will seriously undermine the authority of the government. For GBP, preservation in the customs Union will mean a reduction in uncertainty, which can be well received by investors, Foley believes. However, this may exacerbate the rift in the already fragmented ruling Tory party. Rabobank has forecast for the pair EUR/GBP at the level of 0.89 in three months.
"The purpose of the monetary policy Committee (MPC) is to assess the current state and operational impact on economic activity. From this point of view, it is difficult not to agree with the comments made by Karni on Thursday. However, it can be argued that the MPC statement in February was too strong and too dogmatic," she says.
Next week, the UK GDP report for the 1st quarter will be released. Bloomberg consensus is 0.3% QoQ. There are some economists who are downgrading their forecasts after a recent series of weak data. Rabobank still predicts that the Bank of England will raise rates in may. However, weak data recently cast doubt on the further tightening of policy later this year, says Foley. For the pound, a rate hike in may means customer support. Nevertheless, the influence of the regulator's decision on the currency will not be so noticeable if the Committee makes it clear that it does not intend to hurry further.
May will be an interesting month for the pound and for other reasons. Earlier this month, there was a lot of talk about the traditional seasonal factor supporting the pound in April. Most likely, this provoked the opening of a number of speculative positions on the purchase, which may have yesterday capitulated on the background of comments Karni, the expert suggests. May, of course, does not promise a pound of seasonal surge in demand, she says.
Another serious risk for the pound lies in politics. Media reports indicated that the EU rejected the British proposal on the border with Ireland. This reinforces expectations that the UK may have to stay within the customs Union. This is contrary to the Prime Minister's promises and will seriously undermine the authority of the government. For GBP, preservation in the customs Union will mean a reduction in uncertainty, which can be well received by investors, Foley believes. However, this may exacerbate the rift in the already fragmented ruling Tory party. Rabobank has forecast for the pair EUR/GBP at the level of 0.89 in three months.
fxstrategist
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Gbpusd
Amazing drop on the Pound, but the GBPUSD may try to pul back up after the fall, som profit taking may push it up.
Amazing drop on the Pound, but the GBPUSD may try to pul back up after the fall, som profit taking may push it up.
fxstrategist
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GBPUSD in free fall
The GBPUSD accelerates its bearish momentum and breaks below the 1.3700 level and below the 200 day EMA. The pair falls to the 1.3600 level, which could act as support.
The GBPUSD accelerates its bearish momentum and breaks below the 1.3700 level and below the 200 day EMA. The pair falls to the 1.3600 level, which could act as support.
Over the past 12 months, the pound has risen by more than 14% against the dollar. Since the beginning of the year, the GBP has grown against the us dollar by 6% and topped the list of the most productive currencies B-10, and this despite the difficult relationship between Europe and Britain.
The main catalyst for growth was the agreement between Brussels and London on the terms of the transition period. Additional-the market hopes to raise the Bank of England rate.
The main catalyst for growth was the agreement between Brussels and London on the terms of the transition period. Additional-the market hopes to raise the Bank of England rate.
