GBP/USD Big Short coming

[marketwizard123]

still fundamentally bearish, time to short as the interest rate announcement expected...?

 

[KillPhil08]

I heard a rumour they're increasing them.

 

[marketwizard123]

i assume you are drunk today then...?!

Bank ready for interest rate meeting - WalesOnline

 

[KillPhil08]

 

[rnicoll]

I heard a rumour they're increasing them.

I heard a rumour they're going to start expressing interest rates in imaginary numbers.


Seriously though; the rumour that rates will drop has been well circulated, and is almost certainly already reflected in the price IMHO.

 

[Hoggums]

I heard a rumour that the rumour that is causing the GPB/USD fall is rumoured to be priced in for worst case scenario and could continue the move up if the rate cut is less than expected.

Just a rumour though.

 

[WallStreetHero]

well as they say, buy on the rumor not on the news.

 

[fibonelli]

Every Tom, Dick and Harriet is short GBP according to the latest COT report.

Better to have meat on the bone than short the hole.

Still believe GBP is an accident waiting to happen later this year.

 

[Pippy5000]

I'm short regardless of the announcement if today's rally continues

the risk/reward down is better than up ..

 

[Pippy5000]

position ratios on Wednesday, 07 January 2009 09:09:36 GMT

The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.17 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.23 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 29.2% higher than yesterday and 0.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.1% lower than yesterday and 53.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.5% stronger than yesterday and 142.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses

 

[tripleogstar]

pippy, where did you get those stats from

 

[marketwizard123]

no, i think you miss my point. GBP/USD was technically hugely oversold so some bounce back toward 1.5000 was to be expected. Fundamentally gbp/usd is still bearish and you would expect another drop towards 1.3800-1.4000 region before a real recovery ala eur/usd. ( i would say under 1.4000 stop shorting and go long target 1.6500) the implied exchange rate based on the interest rates after cut is around 1.4800-1.5000 although negative news will push this way below that before improvement in my opinion

 

[marketwizard123]

tripleogstar -> GBP/USD Live Chart | TRKR Free Trading Resources (left hand column liquidity sentiment updated every half hour, shows current trading positions - or google soemthing like forex liquidity sentiment. (or check ur trading account provider they may provide similar stats)

 

[marketwizard123]

BBC NEWS | Business | Rates tipped to hit all-time low, look at that interest rate chart...can we short those tooo?!!!

 

[Pippy5000]

I got mine from the dailyfx plus web site (members only) but that one is updated more often it seems..

I ended up losing -5 pips on my long GBP/USD when it faltered above 1.53 .. The bias is still up on a close above 1.51 ..

 

[Pippy5000]

wow 87.44% of traders are long USDJPY .. if that doesn't scream short I don't know what does .. never seen sentiment that high

 

[teojh]

wow 87.44% of traders are long USDJPY .. if that doesn't scream short I don't know what does .. never seen sentiment that high

wow serious!? i have been short from 93.50
no wonder its stalling at 91.00

 

[RidderTrade]

gbp / usd towards 1.40

enjoy