GBP/USD - All aboard the $$$$ Boat

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hazza147

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Hi Guys,

Providing the GBP/USD doesn't break back through 1.9411 I'm favouring a move back up to the 50% Fib of 1.9669 to 1.9411 @ 1.9535-40. Then from here I'm going to go short with a stop loss above the current falling trend line at around the 1.9570 mark, if the stop loss is hit I'll probably do a stop and reverse trade to take advantage of the breakout with a target of previous 1.9669 resistance (9th June). The target for the short trade however is 19365 support (14th May). I have attached a screenshot of my analysis.

Just wanted to get a different side to the story perhaps from the experts.

Cheers,
C-GA
 

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When taking the Fibs, do you take them from the start of the move at 19'800 ish, or the second leg at 19635 ish?

Interesting, from the 19'800 level it has just bounced off resistence at the 23.6% line
 
I have based my trading moves upon a mixture of both Elliot Wave theorem and Fibonacci indicators. Thus my reason for placing the limit order at 19535 (50% fib of 19669 to 19411) as I feel from past experience that this should be the retracement from the end of Wave 3 then, Wave 4 with any luck should approach and hit the 50% fib stated above then start the primary bear trend again heading for Wave 5 somewhere in the mid 300's.

Cheers GammaJamma for that bit of info. Hopefully this can provoke the planned move.

Hope you all have a good weekend.

Cheers,
C-GA
 
Also the declining ADX should mean that we should focus our attention on the Oscillators for Overbought status. The Stochastic (14 3 5) is already starting to head towards our Overbought level and hopefully a signal from here could give the trade a bit more of a character.
 
hazza147 said:
Hi Guys,

Providing the GBP/USD doesn't break back through 1.9411 I'm favouring a move back up to the 50% Fib of 1.9669 to 1.9411 @ 1.9535-40. Then from here I'm going to go short with a stop loss above the current falling trend line at around the 1.9570 mark, if the stop loss is hit I'll probably do a stop and reverse trade to take advantage of the breakout with a target of previous 1.9669 resistance (9th June). The target for the short trade however is 19365 support (14th May). I have attached a screenshot of my analysis.

Just wanted to get a different side to the story perhaps from the experts.

Cheers,
C-GA
Click to expand...

just for the record, I'm going to do exactly the opposite
 
Is that based upon a breakout of the bearish trend line? I have suggested doing this in my stop and reverse strategy. If not could you possibly explain as it would good to have an alternating opinion.
 
Ahhh, Okay so you're going against my knowledge! In that case go put your money where ur mouth is and we'll see who comes out best.

Ashame really I'd assumed a trader like yourself would be more beneficial to a thread, and provide a different dimension to the analysis!

Cheers, Anyway!

PS: Whats the weather like in Bangkok today? And isn't it midnight over there?
 
Watch out for Boiling Oil

Interesting take on where the USD may be headed, which I don't necessarily disagree with. But watch out for some really wierd stuff going on this week end and next week related to oil. Which in my opinion is in grave danger of becoming the world's reserve currency. It occurs to me that the price of oil and the increasingly hawkish remarks from the Fed, BOE and ECB begins to suggests that there may be a really big world wide bet being conjoured up on OPEC coming up with some "magical" extra production! and saving the world economy. (Or at least something to shake out the short term speculators). To appreciate this put this in context with the fact that all western governments and central banks are absolutely terrified of "stagflation". And that is the gun barrel we are all looking down right now. Oil is the key to avoiding it.

So.. if this happens, or is reported to be about to happen, where may the USD be headed then? Just a whacky theory but how about this?

Oil price may fall. A bit. Ergo..each USD will buys a few more drops of Saudi oil than currently. Ergo.. USD should begin to strengthen (oil is priced in USD - of course ignoring the IOB in Kish). Cheaper oil adds stimulus to the US and Western economies = Growth. (That starts to tackle 'stag' but what about 'flation'). Well there is only really three ways to combat this. Taxation, Interest Rates and Monetary Policy.

With almost no exceptions the developed world's leaders can't seriously jack up taxation right now without fear of revolution. So my guess is that the G8 and central banks will bet on a lower oil price providing a major kick start to growth. This will be followed by a rise in interest rates and a major tightening on monetery policy which THEY HOPE will be less painful in expanding economies than it would be in contracting economies. (Effectively recreating what Paul Volker was allowed to do under Regan). It may work in the short term but the medium term is another story. After all, the world is a very different place to what it was in the 1980s. China and India have suddenly appeared on the map with a voracious apetite for commodities, and massive Dollar and Euro reserves and investments.

So... Right now very few countries could claim that it is in their interest (economically) to have a worthless USD. And of course this only works if OPEC plays ball. (I could argue that given the B/S about the size of their oil reserves actually means that they have nothing to loose. You can only sell a barrel of oil for $139 if you actually have a barrel oil. Peak-Oil )

So whilst I am currently Long on Cable (what a hypocrit eh?), depending on timings I think we may see the dollar strengthen a fair bit in the coming months.

Question is how to play this whacky scenario which may be only the ravings of a paranoid looney. How about Long USD/CAD?

Any thoughts?

Happy tadings

DB
 
Cheers for that DB. Giving me some good thoughts for my long term prospects. What I love about Trade2Win forums is the fact that the advice you have just given would cost a fair amount of money from a good economist yet because of you its free for all the Dollar speculators to see!

You have given a different view on oils medium term prospects. I'm currently waiting for a weakness and then the start of a rally to get back into oil. With rumours flying around about oil it really does take an opinion such as the one you've given to allow us to ask ourselves what is truly happening and will the economy allow for oil gaining at a similar momentum to which we've recently seen and for some experienced.

Anyway I'm going to be taking Economics at University after my famous gap year! So hopefully I'll be able to provide some similar fundamental analysis with some hard work. The futures bright, but we may have to play the game a little differently. For long term punts anyway.

As for the technical analysis provided earlier, I think the likelihood is that we'll either see a breakout of the bearish trend line started on 9th June or a strong rebound of this level at the start of next week. Anyways after watching Gordon Ramsay's F Word for the past hour I've decided to call it a day and hopefully have some happy dreams of enjoying some of his fine food!

Good idea of going long on the USD/CAD I may look for some technical signals on the weekly charts to see how the market is perceiving our current ordeal. Will post my ideas if I notice anything significant.

Night all and make sure you have a long, restful weekend and turn off those bloody alarms of yours, have a lye in!

Speak to you all on Monday,

Cheers,
C-GA
 
hazza147 said:
Hi Guys,

Providing the GBP/USD doesn't break back through 1.9411 I'm favouring a move back up to the 50% Fib of 1.9669 to 1.9411 @ 1.9535-40. Then from here I'm going to go short with a stop loss above the current falling trend line at around the 1.9570 mark, if the stop loss is hit I'll probably do a stop and reverse trade to take advantage of the breakout with a target of previous 1.9669 resistance (9th June). The target for the short trade however is 19365 support (14th May). I have attached a screenshot of my analysis.

Just wanted to get a different side to the story perhaps from the experts.

Cheers,
C-GA
Click to expand...

You wont find such a thing as an "expert" in forex... anyone who says they are is a liar..

looks like you are on a different timeframe to me altogether..so I though I would alert you that you "might" want to be a bit careful jumping in and out at the moment as the longer term trading ranges are a bit disjointed. I think there might be some volatile days ahead..

my position is short... I am not a TA but I can see there is resistance at the 1.9350 area... but I dont believe it will hold.. some of the other major pairs are breaking long term range's and the fundamentals seem to be very unclear as well at the moment...(oil being the main one for me) this is where the market can be most choppy and catch you with your pants down... :-0

But I am not an expert...;)
 
hazza147 said:
Ahhh, Okay so you're going against my knowledge! In that case go put your money where ur mouth is and we'll see who comes out best.

Ashame really I'd assumed a trader like yourself would be more beneficial to a thread, and provide a different dimension to the analysis!

Cheers, Anyway!

PS: Whats the weather like in Bangkok today? And isn't it midnight over there?
Click to expand...



sorry, my point was that I have no opinion.
whereas your post, whilst worthy and well-informed, seems to contain opinions, theories, expectations, scenarios etc.
I haven't looked at Cable too much recently, I've been too busy on ES, but from your chart I'd have two options - a Buy Stop at 1.9500 and a Sell Stop at 1.9400, that's all.

You certainly seem to know what you're doing and I wouldn't want to imply any denigration of your trading style, method or skills.

I just lack any interest for all that "what if ..." stuff and like to go with the Momentum once a Stop Entry kicks in
 
It would appear that it was the Stop and Reverse trade which has played off. The failure to gather momentum after breaking the 1.9669 resistance and reversing at 1.9688 level suggests to me that it may range between the 1.9700 and 1.9600 levels overnight. What happens tomorrow morning will decide my day of trading. I have set 2 stop orders based around tomorrow mornings momentum.

BUY @ 1.9715 - SL @ 1.9665 - TP @ 1.9790 (Below 9th June - 1.9800 Resistance)
or
SELL @ 1.9580 - SL @ 1.9625 - TP @ 1.9490 (Reward Ratio 2:1)

Anyone seeing the cable in a different light?

Cheers,
C-GA
 
Above trade paid off. In the end it was the SELL stop order which was triggered and it netted the 90 pips equating to a £460 profit (Standard Contract). Just think if you could get one of these trades every day...!

I'm going to be doing some more research on the cable after dinner.

Cheers,
C-GA
 
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