Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

[Jason Rogers]

Sentiment Points to Further Gains in EUR/USD

The brown bars in the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) graph below show that traders have remained short the Euro against the US Dollar since it crossed above the $1.28 mark. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, this is a sign that EUR/USD gains can continue.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A long position could be entered on a break above the 76.4% Fib level at 1.32600 shown below (blue dotted line) with a stop set below the 61.8% Fib level at 1.31634 (red dotted line).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The profit target can be set around the high set last month at 1.34161 (green dotted line).

 

[Jason Rogers]

Bullish Signs for Aussie headed into Data-Filled Week

This week has been light on economic data releases. By contrast, the schedule next week is packed full with consumer confidence figures, an FOMC meeting, CPI data, manufacturing numbers and Non-farm Payrolls.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Expect volatility! While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, volatile market conditions have traditionally been favorable the sentiment-based strategies on DailyFX PLUS.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

In particular, the Momentum2 strategy has given a signal today to buy AUD/USD between 0.9264 and 0.9312 (blue dotted lines below) with a trailing stop at 0.91922 (red dotted line).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

You can automate the Momentum2 strategy on your FXCM account via the Mirror Trader platform where it is known as the Tidal Shift Strategy. The same username and password that you use to log into Trading Station will allow you to access the Mirror Trader platform.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Slew of Economic Data Favors Volatility

Last week was rather boring in terms of scheduled event risk, but fundamental traders will be more than satisfied with the upcoming slate of data releases.

That spells volatility. One of the currency pairs traditionally favored by volatility lovers is GBP/JPY. Not surprisingly our sentiment-based Momentum2 strategy on DailyFXplus.com has generated a trade signal to start this week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The signal is to short GBP/JPY with a trailing stop at 152.387.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The Momentum2 strategy can be automated on your FXCM account via the Mirror Trader platform. The same username and password that you use to log into Trading Station can be used to access Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Signs Oil Could Be Header Lower

In his article today about trade setups for commodities, DailyFX strategist Ilya Spivak identified an opportunity to short US Oil (WTI Crude) with recent price action confirming the bearish evening star formation on the candlestick charts last week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"Prices turned lower as expected. Sellers have now overcome support at 105.06, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 38.2% level at 102.70. A further push beneath that aims for the 50% Fib at 100.79."

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/USD breaks trend heading into FOMC

The FOMC announcement isn't until 18:00 GMT today, but DailyFX trading instructor Jeremy Wagner sent out a tweet this morning about the following chart breakout for EUR/USD.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A short position at current levels could target 1.2750 and 1.2250 with a stop around 1.3350. To always get his latest trade ideas, you can follow Jeremy Wagner on Twitter @JWagnerFXTrader

 

[Jason Rogers]

Non-Farm Payroll

Preparing for US Non-Farm Payroll employment report

Tomorrow is the monthly jobs report for the United States, and the Non-Farm Payroll report has the potential to create lots of volatility. It's important because it holds implications for whether or not the Federal Reserve begins to taper and eventually raise interest rates. And you can look at a chart of US Dollar volatility during June to see just what sort of reaction happens when it's believed the Fed will taper.

What is expected: DailyFX currently lists the estimated jobs created during the month of July at 185k. The 6 month NFP average in the chart below (compliments of DailyFX Analyst John Kicklighter) is right at the 200k level, so tomorrow's release is expected to come in line with the average.

The NFP job number may be the headline everyone pays attention to, but the unemployment rate could be the figure the Fed ultimately looks at to decide whether to taper or not. John Kicklighter's chart considers the 7.0% and 6.5% unemployment rates as key levels to watch for shifts in Fed policy:

As always when trading during NFP or any news events, be careful about trading right during the release as the market can be very volatile.

 

[Jason Rogers]

July NFPs Bearish for USD/JPY

In his quick recap of the July employment report, currency analyst Christopher Vecchio had this to say:

THE TAKEAWAY: US labor market continues to improve only at a modest pace (+150K to +200K), but July report disappoints handily > Participation Rate falls leading to decline in Unemployment Rate > Second US data poor as well > September QE3 taper in question > USD/JPY BEARISH

USD/JPY 1-minute Chart: August 2, 2013

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

There is an opportunity to enter a short position in USD/JPY if the pair continues below 98.756 (blue dotted line) which is the 50% retracement level of the downtrend since May.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The stop could be set above the resistance that has been established since the NFP announcement today around 99.50 (red dotted line).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The profit target can be set around the 38.2% fib level at 97.582 (green dotted line).

 

[Jason Rogers]

Technical Indicators to Short GBP/USD

To start the new trading week, senior technical strategist Jamie Saettele tweeted about his latest trade idea to short GBP/USD. As you can see from his chart below, the pair is currently trading near the top of a descending trend line.

GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A short trade entered at current levels could target 1.52495 and then 1.50265 with a stop above 1.53862. Too keep up to date with his latest trade ideas, you can follow Jamie Saettele on Twitter @JamieSaettele

 

[Jason Rogers]

RBA Comments Bullish for Aussie

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut their target interest rate from 2.75% down to 2.50%. However, the RBA did not repeat its message from July, which was that inflation provided scope for further easing. This implies a possible end to rate cuts for the time being and is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Looking at the DailyFX trading signals, we see that the Momentum2 Strategy has just given a signal to buy AUD/USD. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at 2.0759, which suggests that the AUD/USD could be trending upwards.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The strategy recommends entering this trade at any price between 0.89648 and 0.90084 (blue dotted lines in the chart above). A trailing stop has been set at 0.88995 (red dotted line).

You can automate the Momentum2 strategy on your FXCM account via the Mirror Trader platform where it is known as the Tidal Shift Strategy. The same username and password that you use to log into Trading Station will allow you to access the Mirror Trader platform.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Chart Setup to Short USD/CAD

The DailyFX education team just tweeted about this chart setup for USD/CAD. The pair found bearish divergence with the slow stochastic oscillator as price just retraced 50% of the prior move.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

An short position entered at current levels could target 1.0300 with a stop at 1.0450. To keep up to date with all their latest trade ideas you can follow the DailyFX education team on Twitter @DailyFXedu

 

[Jason Rogers]

Traders Have Never been More Long US Dollar - What Now?

The latest weekly update of the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has just been posted on DailyFX.com and they show that traders have never been more long the US dollar. For example, the SSI reading for EUR/USD is -3.48 meaning that there are 3.48 short positions for every 1 long position.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

This combined with record open positions in the pair mean that retail traders have never before been this short the Euro against the US dollar. Notice below how EUR/USD tends to rise when SSI is negative (brown bars) and tends to fall when SSI is positive (green bars).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

SSI is a contrarian indicator, which means the fact that crowds are heavily short the pair is a bullish signal that the pair could rise higher. With this in mind, we can look to the Technical Analyzer on DailyFXplus.com to get key levels to enter a long position.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The Technical Analyzer says a long position could be entered at current levels with stops below 1.3325 profit targets around 1.3415, 1.3450 and 1.3490.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Chart Setup to Short AUD/JPY

The DailyFX education team just tweeted about this chart setup for USD/CAD. The pair found bearish divergence with the slow stochastic oscillator as price just retraced 50% of the prior move.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The last trade idea I posted from the DailyFX education team has since reached its profit target locking in over 100 pips. Today, trade instructor James Stanley has tweeted about a new chart setup to short AUD/JPY.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Stochastics are overbought, which indicate the long term downtrend in the pair could resume. An entry order to short AUD/JPY can be placed at 87.75 with a stop loss at 89.25 and a profit target at 85.00. To keep up to date with all his latest trade ideas you can follow James Stanley on Twitter @JStanleyFX

 

[Jason Rogers]

Possible trend shift in USD/JPY – going long

The Tidal Shift Strategy on DailyFXplus.com has just given a signal to buy USD/JPY. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours which suggests that the USDJPY could be trending upwards.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 97.874 and 98.31 with a trailing stop set at 97.22. You can automate the Tidal Shift Strategyon your FXCM account by logging into Mirror Trader with the same username and password you use to access Trading Station.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Decrease in Short Positioning Bearish for Euro

In the graphs below, you can see that the latest Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) reading for EUR/USD is -2.02 indicating that there are 2.02 short positions for every 1 long position in the pair. Taken by itself, this is a bullish signal, but notice the weekly change in net positioning.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Long positions are 25.5% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 14.5% below levels seen last week. That means overall the short positioning in EUR/USD has decreased dramatically. This is a bearish indicator for the pair, since SSI is a contrarian indicator.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

It's no surprise then that the SSI-based Momentum2 strategy on DailyFX PLUS is giving a signal to sell EUR/USD at current levels with a trailing stop at 1.3324. DailyFX trading signals such as Momentum2 are available as automated strategies at FXCMapps.com

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: More Strength in Forecast for British Pound

The latest weekly update of our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has just been posted on DailyFX.com

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Focusing on GBP/USD, we can see that both the absolute net positioning and the recent change in net positioning are giving a bearish signal for the pair.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The SSI value for GBP/USD is -2.02 which means there are 2.02 short positions for every 1 long positions. That's a relative increase in net short positioning from -1.93 last week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Understandably both the Breakout2 strategy and the Momentum2 strategy on DailyFXplus.com have recently given signals to buy GBP/USD. Both of these trading signals are available as automated strategies at FXCMapps.com

 

[Jason Rogers]

Trade Setup: USD/JPY in a Falling Channel

The DailyFX education team just tweeted their latest chart setup. USD/JPY is in a falling channel as MACD is giving a selling signal. Price channels can also help with stop placement.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A short position can be entered at current levels with a stop at 98.75 and a profit target at 95.25. To always get their latest trade ideas, you can follow the DailyFX education team on Twitter @DailyFXedu

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: GBP/JPY Best Positioned to Extend Gains amid FOMC Fireworks

The British Pound has been a top performer in August while the Japanese Yen has struggled – even as global equity markets have come under pressure. The latest readings from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) show retail traders have been increasing their short exposure to GBP/JPY.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The lengthening brown bars in the graph above show that SSI has continued to become more negative as GBP/JPY has risen. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, this is a sign that the recent bull run may continue.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

If a long position in GBP/JPY is entered at current levels, the stop loss could be set below the pivot level at 152.50 (red dotted line) as indicated by the Technical Analyzer at DailyFXplus.com, and the profit target could be set around the high set back in May at 156.776 (green dotted line).

 

[Jason Rogers]

Momentum Scorecard: Long EUR/USD or GBP/AUD Strongest Bets

Christopher Vecchio wrote an article on DailyFX.com today showing how you can use the Moving Average Dashboard from FXCMapps.com to get trend signals as shown below:

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

As you can see, the moving averages on all time frames point to a bullish momentum for EUR/USD and GBP/AUD.
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These momentum signals are given further confirmation by the sentiment-based trading strategies on DailyFXplus.com

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

For example, the Momentum2 strategy says a long position can be entered in EUR/USD at current levels with a trailing stop at 1.3327.

 

[Jason Rogers]

British Pound Finds New Role as Haven During Emerging Market Turmoil

Going into today's FOMC release, the British Pound has emerged as an unlikely top performer and perhaps safe haven du jour as few developed economies have seen the resiliency the UK economy has since May.

GBP/AUD 15-min Chart: August 14 to 21, 2013

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

For the past week or so, the Sterling has been quite strong against the commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar in particular, as emerging market weakness has started to impact the entire Asian-Pacific region. The pair is now trading near the bottom of the price channel for this recent uptrend.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

That could maybe present an opportunity to buy GBP/AUD at current levels. A stop could be set below the 76.4% retracement level to the earlier high of 1.73415 set back on August 7th which has since been broken. A profit target could be set around the 161.8% extension level at 1.75753.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Some food for thought today before the weekly SSI release.

Everyone is talking about the Federal Reserve tapering, which ultimately about interest rates. Interest rates have a huge impact on the financial markets, including forex. US Treasury rates are going higher. Mortgage rates are going higher. And now corporate yields seem to be spiking higher. The spike in corporate yields tend to spike along with major market moving events as demonstrated by this chart was tweeted out by Marketwatch today:

Source: 7 gut checks before the stock market's opening bell - Need to Know - MarketWatch

What does this mean for the forex market? Financial market volatility can lead to big moves in the forex market.