FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit

Have really clean setup and entry signals for a long aud/cad, but this pair has shown no recent trendiness, whipsawing back and forth across the 49 average. Pity - as it's a very clean signal.
 
Be interesting to see if the German PMI data in a few minutes deviates from the estimate by much. It doesn't often. Looking bullish.

The Euro PMI data in just over half an hour is always a different kettle of fish. Also slated to be bullish, but typically comes in significantly off - one way or the other.
 
gbp/jpy & nzd/jpy also setting up for potential shorts, but really messy action so will not be watching them at this time.
 
aud/jpy short stop at 93.60. Just 5 pips above Friday's lower boundary on open and above daily pivot and half-century.
 
aud/jpy sitting on monthly pivot, weekly pivot and Friday's low - all within a 4 pip band. The fact that it opened gap down below that level today and broke back up through it with apparent ease and is seemingly finding it less easy to break back down again might suggest this support level more likely to hold than not.

The current candle showing a lot of lower wick, suggesting little appetite for lower prices.
 
Purple Brain said:
Have really clean setup and entry signals for a long aud/cad, but this pair has shown no recent trendiness, whipsawing back and forth across the 49 average. Pity - as it's a very clean signal.
Click to expand...
Mornin' PB,
The problem here of course - as I'm sure you are aware - is that it will probably move nicely in the intended direction and you'll end up kicking yourself for not taking the trade. If a tried and tested part of your methodology is to only take trades in instruments whose recent history suggests that a significant move is likely - then fair enough. However, most members struggle on this front, as there's no real way of knowing for certain when range bound activity will come to an end and be replaced by trending activity - and vice versa of course. So, what to do? The solution is to take the trade anyway, and have a game plan in place in the event that it chops about in a narrow range. Should the pair do exactly that and you end up closing the trade with a small loss, then so be it. So long as your profit:loss and win:loss ratios are correctly balanced, then the winners should take care of the losers. As with the lottery - 'you've gotta be in it to win it!'
Tim.
 
aud/jpy going to find a bunch of support levels at the century mark - including daily pivot and today's open.
 
aud/jpy stop down to 93.38 – most recent high +5 pips.

[Up until today, I’ve typically constructed my stops around what I consider to be technical support/resistance levels – plus 10 pips to allow for spread and overrun. I’ve narrowed this fuzz factor to 5 pips as given the average number of pips I’m making on my winning trades and the typical size of my stops in pips, I’m giving away too much with the 10 pip fuzz factor. I appreciate I’ll increase my probabilities of getting stopped, but a review of trades taken over the last 6 months indicate I will end up putting more on my bottom line by being less generous with my stops.]
 
An almost perfect setup and entry signals for a long gbp/usd on the last bar and I'm just sitting here looking at it and wondering why I don't feel good about going in. Quite inexplicable.
 
Good one today. Best pips profit on the day of my current recap charts in this thread I think.
+51 ticks
 

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Purple Brain said:
aud/jpy stop down to 93.38 – most recent high +5 pips.

[Up until today, I’ve typically constructed my stops around what I consider to be technical support/resistance levels – plus 10 pips to allow for spread and overrun. I’ve narrowed this fuzz factor to 5 pips as given the average number of pips I’m making on my winning trades and the typical size of my stops in pips, I’m giving away too much with the 10 pip fuzz factor. I appreciate I’ll increase my probabilities of getting stopped, but a review of trades taken over the last 6 months indicate I will end up putting more on my bottom line by being less generous with my stops.]
Click to expand...

If you are convinced enough to continue in the same direction, once you have started for the day, could I suggest that 3 Ducks worked well for me this morning plus exiting, once in profit, on trendline cuts and re-entering short higher up? I decided on Footsie. Very aggressive but I felt a need for some lobster salad to-day! 😀
 
scholfield said:
Good one today. Best pips profit on the day of my current recap charts in this thread I think.
+51 ticks
Click to expand...

You're scoring some useful ticks scholfield. Is most of your trading based on trendline breaks and s/r level breaks? It looks a very effective method.
 
Purple Brain said:
You're scoring some useful ticks scholfield. Is most of your trading based on trendline breaks and s/r level breaks? It looks a very effective method.
Click to expand...

stick around. I'll get hammered with losing trades, soon! I'm almost looking forward to it. You tend not to get much help when people think that you're winning! When I post a chart full of losers, maybe someone will explain what I did wrong.

I've been at this for quite a long time now, and I don't think that i'm gonna get to a consistently profitable level all by myself (assuming it actually IS possible!)

Yes, my trading is mainly price action based. Support and resistance and how price behaves at areas that interest me. Quite a lot of discretion at times.
 
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