fx 53 trend following system

[djenky]

so the first trade was stopped out just before the figures. i saw a reversal on the 5 min at 7.00am at which point i was onside. thought about a hedge but did nothing. i think the point of this is to follow it otherwise in 12 months one cant tell if it has worked or if you have fiddled around with it. the other trade seems unlikely to print at the moment.

just out of interest are other people going to follow blind or intervening ?

Hi Bongofury

I'm attempting to blindly follow the texts as I usually chicken out of the FX53 signals when I check other indicators and systems and quickly over complicate the situation. GBP/JPY is moving sideways at the moment so its not surprising the first trade failed, although I am suprised that the text service was started on Monday when the US were on holiday. I'm sure things will pick up when the market starts moving.

In a text from Monday, Kevin mentions 4 RAP (down) and 4 RAP (up) on the 4 hourly, what is he talking about? I Googled this and found a bloke rapping about Forex!

 

[alan5616]

In a text from Monday, Kevin mentions 4 RAP (down) and 4 RAP (up) on the 4 hourly, what is he talking about? I Googled this and found a bloke rapping about Forex!

I hope I can help with this query. It's nothing to do with music!! 4Rap means "Four Arrow Reducing Pattern". This comprises of 2 Down arrows, the second being lower than the first and 2 Up arrows, the second being higher than the first. In other words a wedge shape. The last arrow, which completes the 4RAP, is the direction in which to make the trade. If you look at the 4 hour chart it's clearly shown.

 

[djenky]

I hope I can help with this query. It's nothing to do with music!! 4Rap means "Four Arrow Reducing Pattern". This comprises of 2 Down arrows, the second being lower than the first and 2 Up arrows, the second being higher than the first. In other words a wedge shape. The last arrow, which completes the 4RAP, is the direction in which to make the trade. If you look at the 4 hour chart it's clearly shown.

Cheers Alan, I see it now.

 

[bongofury]

thanks alan....i would have struggled to explain that !

given it looks as if the equity market is looking weak again i am looking for an entry point to sell eur/chf. i know its at low levels but i think the euro will have probs over next few months and the swiss are in pretty good shape.

i think as there are obviously a few of us with this system, texts etc this forum could be really helpful

 

[djenky]

Is anybody brave enough to take on the latest text - 005A?

Can anybody see to the reasoning behind it?

 

[bongofury]

market is choppy and hes being topped and tailed. maybe stops are a bit close. however i will take it it because if you dont a trade will come right and you will miss the account rebuild. it has broken level on the hourly but i dont understand the entry level. when i have done this myself my order goes in near the base of the broken arrow so in this case around 13100. i have mailed kevin and asked if he could
1. text a confirm that is trade triggered
2. text a confirm that stop has been triggered
3. which time frame has triggered the trade

i am not always at my desk or home for that matter so it would be helpful

 

[bongofury]

blimy that missed being hit by 2 ticks and would now have been stopped again !! this is very choppy. for interest the 5 min chart shows something kevin has mentioned before. at 9am there is an up arrow, the price trades lower and then back up with no opposing down arrow. sparking a rally from13066 to 13135.
with the dow at nov lows its all stock market driven. still looking at eur/chf for entry but even this is a fear trade so depends on further stock falls. maybe i should just trade the dow !!!

 

[Javelin]

4rap

Hi Bongofury

I'm attempting to blindly follow the texts as I usually chicken out of the FX53 signals when I check other indicators and systems and quickly over complicate the situation. GBP/JPY is moving sideways at the moment so its not surprising the first trade failed, although I am suprised that the text service was started on Monday when the US were on holiday. I'm sure things will pick up when the market starts moving.

In a text from Monday, Kevin mentions 4 RAP (down) and 4 RAP (up) on the 4 hourly, what is he talking about? I Googled this and found a bloke rapping about Forex!

I suspect that you may have missed oput on the paper "5 Minute Strategy" issued by Kevin when youpurchased fx53. I missed out on that until I came across 4RAP which alerted to me that I was mssing something. if you have not got that paper, Kevin will surely send it if you ask.

I have not signed up to the alerts yet but am mystified where you saw the example of 4RAP on the 4 hourly (GBP/JPY?) as I cannot see them on my charts. What was the date of the example?

Cheers

 

[djenky]

I suspect that you may have missed oput on the paper "5 Minute Strategy" issued by Kevin when youpurchased fx53. I missed out on that until I came across 4RAP which alerted to me that I was mssing something. if you have not got that paper, Kevin will surely send it if you ask.

I have not signed up to the alerts yet but am mystified where you saw the example of 4RAP on the 4 hourly (GBP/JPY?) as I cannot see them on my charts. What was the date of the example?

Cheers

Thanks for the advice, I've never heard of a 4 RAP before.

The 4 RAP is on the GBP/JPY H4 chart:

First up arrow @ 03/02/2009 12:00
Second up arrow @ 12/02/2009 16:00

First down arrow @ 09/02/2009 04:00
Second down arrow @ 15/02/2009 20:00

 

[Javelin]

Thanks for the advice, I've never heard of a 4 RAP before.

The 4 RAP is on the GBP/JPY H4 chart:

First up arrow @ 03/02/2009 12:00
Second up arrow @ 12/02/2009 16:00

First down arrow @ 09/02/2009 04:00
Second down arrow @ 15/02/2009 20:00

Thanks for that - I see them now when I look at the chart without any fixed levels... However I don't think much of the 'breakout'! Much better is the Dec 31st/2jan 4RAP which had a grand breakout and the arrow pattern pretty well indicated in which direction it was to go.

Cheers

 

[jeffsmith]

February 19, 2009

EUR/USD

Support for the day: -The main support level is at 1.2506, where alteration is possible. Smash would give 1.2480, where alteration might be possible, then follows 1.2465. Smash of the latter would result in 1.2443. If a strapping impulse, we would see 1.2426. Carry-over will give 1.2403.

Resistance for the day: - The main resistance levels are at 1.2622, 1.2656 and 1.2693. Smash would give 1.2732, where a alteration is possible, then goes 1.2757. Sash of the latter would result in 1.2781. If a strapping impulse, we would see 1.2826. Carry-over will give 1.2863.

USD/JPY

Support for the day: -The main supporting levels are at 93.15 and 92.86. Smash would bring 92.72, where alteration is possible, then 92.48. If a strapping impulse, we would see 92.18. Carry-over would give 91.87.

Resistance for the day: - The main resistance level is at 94.06, where a alteration may happen. Smash would bring 94.25, where also a alteration may take place, then 94.46. If a strapping impulse, we would see 94.70. Carry-over will give 94.93, 95.17 and 95.38.

DOW JONES INDEX

Support for the day: -The main supporting levels are at 7542.13 and 7513.00, where a holdup and alteration may happen. Smash of the latter will give 7494.50, where alteration also can be there, then follows 7472.43. Be there a strapping impulse, we would see 7436.30. Carry-over will bring 7412.75 and 7385.62.

Resistance for the day: - The main resistance levels are at 7620.00 and 7675.46, where a holdup and alteration may happen. Smash would bring 7708.26 and 7738.20, where a alteration might take place, then follows 7762.50, where a holdup and alteration could also be. Be there a strapping impulse we would see 7806.46. Carry-over would bring 7830.33 and 7897.40.

 

[alan5616]

February 19, 2009

EUR/USD

Support for the day: -The main support level is at 1.2506, where alteration is possible. Smash would give 1.2480, where alteration might be possible, then follows 1.2465. Smash of the latter would result in 1.2443. If a strapping impulse, we would see 1.2426. Carry-over will give 1.2403.

Resistance for the day: - The main resistance levels are at 1.2622, 1.2656 and 1.2693. Smash would give 1.2732, where a alteration is possible, then goes 1.2757. Sash of the latter would result in 1.2781. If a strapping impulse, we would see 1.2826. Carry-over will give 1.2863.

USD/JPY

Support for the day: -The main supporting levels are at 93.15 and 92.86. Smash would bring 92.72, where alteration is possible, then 92.48. If a strapping impulse, we would see 92.18. Carry-over would give 91.87.

Resistance for the day: - The main resistance level is at 94.06, where a alteration may happen. Smash would bring 94.25, where also a alteration may take place, then 94.46. If a strapping impulse, we would see 94.70. Carry-over will give 94.93, 95.17 and 95.38.

DOW JONES INDEX

Support for the day: -The main supporting levels are at 7542.13 and 7513.00, where a holdup and alteration may happen. Smash of the latter will give 7494.50, where alteration also can be there, then follows 7472.43. Be there a strapping impulse, we would see 7436.30. Carry-over will bring 7412.75 and 7385.62.

Resistance for the day: - The main resistance levels are at 7620.00 and 7675.46, where a holdup and alteration may happen. Smash would bring 7708.26 and 7738.20, where a alteration might take place, then follows 7762.50, where a holdup and alteration could also be. Be there a strapping impulse we would see 7806.46. Carry-over would bring 7830.33 and 7897.40.

I think you've posted this on the wrong thread!!!

 

[bongofury]

hi guys.trades 006/007/008. i was away from home and couldnt get a connection for internet. could have put trades on by phone and i guess i must do that. seems 006 was a small loser (was the stop moved up too fast gives the whipsawing market) and 007 never filled and 008 was 86 ish ticks profit so i could have gor some money back.

i am going to run with this but does anyone agree that the trades look nothing kike the ca2 trades i do on my own where my order is ususally behind the market rather than ahead of it as these trades are ?

 

[djenky]

hi guys.trades 006/007/008. i was away from home and couldnt get a connection for internet. could have put trades on by phone and i guess i must do that. seems 006 was a small loser (was the stop moved up too fast gives the whipsawing market) and 007 never filled and 008 was 86 ish ticks profit so i could have gor some money back.

i am going to run with this but does anyone agree that the trades look nothing kike the ca2 trades i do on my own where my order is ususally behind the market rather than ahead of it as these trades are ?

Apart from a 4 RAP on the H4 I cannot see much of a correlation between the FX53 system and the trades so far, but there again, why would you when you already have the system? Having said that, I do back test FX53 on the M15, M30 and M60 time frames and non have made a profit yet this week, but it has been a whipsaw market, definitely not the right week to start a new service.

I once read that there are three kinds of trade: short, long and stay the hell out, so far it’s defiantly been a stay the hell out week. A postponement of the service until the market settled down would have been a good decision, but it’s always easier with hind sight.

I was hoping for more exposure to other currencies and an idea about how Kevin picks the trades, with or without the help of FX53. But apart from a 4 RAP and a head and shoulders no explanations have been forth coming.

According to my calculations the Text Service is down by 191 pips, let’s hope the market settles down and allows Kevin to strut his stuff.

 

[djenky]

Hi All.

Is this the only exclusive FX53 forum on the Internet?

Has anybody ever asked Kevin Adams if he would like to setup his own forum, or inform the other FX53 users about this one or another public forum dedicated to FX53?

I’m sure that we could all benefit from a centralized forum for all FX53 users.

 

[alan5616]

Apart from a 4 RAP on the H4 I cannot see much of a correlation between the FX53 system and the trades so far, but there again, why would you when you already have the system? Having said that, I do back test FX53 on the M15, M30 and M60 time frames and non have made a profit yet this week, but it has been a whipsaw market, definitely not the right week to start a new service.

I once read that there are three kinds of trade: short, long and stay the hell out, so far it’s defiantly been a stay the hell out week. A postponement of the service until the market settled down would have been a good decision, but it’s always easier with hind sight.

I was hoping for more exposure to other currencies and an idea about how Kevin picks the trades, with or without the help of FX53. But apart from a 4 RAP and a head and shoulders no explanations have been forth coming.

According to my calculations the Text Service is down by 191 pips, let’s hope the market settles down and allows Kevin to strut his stuff.

The 5 min has been brilliant, provided that you're happy to take 100 pts per trade (my normal target). If it goes 300+ pts, then I lose out but, for me, it's been a great week so far.

 

[FxViking]

Alan, do you only trade of the 4 RAP on the 5min or do you use the 1min 4 RAP also ?
I assume that you use your 5min TF as your main chart for trades, do you also take the revesals that happen during the midday, like today or is it 100 pips then stop, regardless

have you tried any other currencies ?

thks

 

[alan5616]

Alan, do you only trade of the 4 RAP on the 5min or do you use the 1min 4 RAP also ?
I assume that you use your 5min TF as your main chart for trades, do you also take the revesals that happen during the midday, like today or is it 100 pips then stop, regardless

have you tried any other currencies ?

thks

Let me answer the last question first. I don't trade any other currencies.

I make all my trades from the 5 min tf. I've toyed around with the 1 min tf but, don't feel comfortable making trades from it. I don't take 4Raps that form in the middle of the day's price range, unless they confirm trend continuation. I prefer to use them for reverals off the top/bottom of the day's current high/low. I, also, look for reversals based on closes above/below feeder arrows

Today's drop was difficult to have any confidence in. The afternoon price was completely influenced by the Philly Fed numbers. I, usually take the 100 pts. and that's it. Many days, I'm finished trading by 9am. To be honest, I hate trading the NY session. We're not trading GBP/JPY, in the afternoon, we're trading the Dow, S&P etc. by proxy.

 

[FxViking]

Let me answer the last question first. I don't trade any other currencies.

I make all my trades from the 5 min tf. I've toyed around with the 1 min tf but, don't feel comfortable making trades from it. I don't take 4Raps that form in the middle of the day's price range, unless they confirm trend continuation. I prefer to use them for reverals off the top/bottom of the day's current high/low. I, also, look for reversals based on closes above/below feeder arrows

Today's drop was difficult to have any confidence in. The afternoon price was completely influenced by the Philly Fed numbers. I, usually take the 100 pts. and that's it. Many days, I'm finished trading by 9am. To be honest, I hate trading the NY session. We're not trading GBP/JPY, in the afternoon, we're trading the Dow, S&P etc. by proxy.

Thks for the help with my questions.
but, my main issue with 5min tf, is that you are usually risking abt. 75 pips, to the base + 20-30 pips behind it and the gain is 100 pips, then the payoff is "only" 1:1 or worse.
The 5min ft dosnt go very far back to backtest the win rate, but how long have you been trading the GY on 5min tf ? could you give me some statics, as im starting to trade that tf too ? you could pm, if you like.

Thks again

 

[alan5616]

Thks for the help with my questions.
but, my main issue with 5min tf, is that you are usually risking abt. 75 pips, to the base + 20-30 pips behind it and the gain is 100 pips, then the payoff is "only" 1:1 or worse.
The 5min ft dosnt go very far back to backtest the win rate, but how long have you been trading the GY on 5min tf ? could you give me some statics, as im starting to trade that tf too ? you could pm, if you like.

Thks again

I've been trading off the 5 min tf for about 6 months. My risk factor is much lower than 100 pts. Perhaps my method is a bit unorthodox but, I do use some discretion by trailing my stop based on current price action. Most of the time a move against your position won't just spike you out but, will go on to close above/below the base of an arrow.

Another factor is that, although I'm looking for 100 pt trades, if the market has real momentum and continuously making new highs/lows, I will let the position run. I'll move my stop to lock in 100 pts. which still allows the trade the potential to move further. This stategy, regularly, yields more than 100pts.

In all honesty, screen time is an essential in getting to know this pair and it's idiosyncracies. I don't, always enter a trade based purely on FX53 signals, although 95% of my decision making is based on the system. I might enter a trade slightly earlier if I've got half a signal on FX53 and price action justifies me "jumping the gun".

It's a tough market to trade but, FX53 does a great job at getting it right much of the time.