FX-2008: w/c Jan-07th

[trendie]

North .

what is a zig-zag?

MT-4; Custom Indicators. Ignore the sessional rectangles.

 

[JTrader]

MT-4; Custom Indicators. Ignore the sessional rectangles.

I've added zig-zags to my chart. I am guessing that they appear a number of bars into the zig-zag, and can also disappear up to some stage - i.e. giving a false impression of hope. I'll see what they do!

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Easy work of yesterday's 9750-59 resistance after a 135pip up move off late asian floor at 9766.

Potential resistance now likely at that 9850/55 area being a former 30min/1hr swing hi high, area of Dly R3, and friday's post NFP reaction Hi. Above this and area between 9888-01 moves into view.

 

[trendie]

I've added zig-zags to my chart. I am guessing that they appear a number of bars into the zig-zag, and can also disappear up to some stage - i.e. giving a false impression of hope. I'll see what they do!

you could also Demark new_trend; all they do is put a blue circle or red circle depending if it a swing (eg, highest bar of past 3 bars, etc). all I do is use them (and zig-zag) to gauge the direction, HH, HL etc.
its an attempt to use price-action rather than MAs to sense direction.

Look at the zig-zags on 5-mins, its more illustrative of "steps" as price moves up or down.
the 5-mins is also useful when seeing breakouts, and then seeing "retests" of previous high/lows, as per bbmacs Sup/Res work.

 

[JTrader]

you could also Demark new_trend; all they do is put a blue circle or red circle depending if it a swing (eg, highest bar of past 3 bars, etc). all I do is use them (and zig-zag) to gauge the direction, HH, HL etc.
its an attempt to use price-action rather than MAs to sense direction.

Look at the zig-zags on 5-mins, its more illustrative of "steps" as price moves up or down.
the 5-mins is also useful when seeing breakouts, and then seeing "retests" of previous high/lows, as per bbmacs Sup/Res work.

Yes the demark new_trend is based on the fractal pattern of 3rd bar in sequence of 5 being a high or low - if the input is set to 2 (i believe).

 

[TheBramble]

since I also use the zig-zag, I use the last but one zig as SL exit, which will be a function of the particular pairs volatility. OR the previous days session Highs/Lows.
See! I can use price-action as well as MAs.

I'm assuming you're joking, but just in case anyone thinks the good old ZZ is worth a shot, they need to realise it changes direction historically! That's what it's supposed to do for its originally intended purpose, but don't expect to go to bed with it heading down and for it still be heading in that direction when you get up. LOL.

 

[TheBramble]

FWIW - I have 14 pairs under review. Normally half of these I discard on my early morning review, the remainder going onto my shortlist.

For each of these I have 4 primary charts (on a screen at same time) and three secondaries (which are lurking minimised - a mouse click away). Even trading a very short TF, it's relatively painless to tkae less than 60 seconds to cycle through the shortlist on a 10-15 min basis and pick up those that need attention.

On the odd occasion more than one needs action, I'll pick just one. As with yesterday, YEN was strong against both GBP and EUR and there was a good probability of a short play. However, GBP was weaker than EUR so I went with the GBPJPY pair. And I'm glad I did.

It's not so much the number of pairs (or instruments) you're monitoring that matters, it's the process you use to whittle them down to tradeable entities.

 

[trendie]

I'm assuming you're joking, but just in case anyone thinks the good old ZZ is worth a shot, they need to realise it changes direction historically! That's what it's supposed to do for its originally intended purpose, but don't expect to go to bed with it heading down and for it still be heading in that direction when you get up. LOL.

I tend to write faster than I can think, so perhaps I wasnt clear.
I am only using the past zig-zags to see where they zigged as an indication of the ebb and flow, sup/res. eg, many zigs at same price means strong sup or res.
I am not using the current direction of the zig-zag as trading, so only the historical is of interest to me. (left of teh chart)

all I am using the zig-zag is to see the last but one point of hook, ie, possible sup/res to quantify stop-losses, nothing more, and I find them very visually useful.
and in addition, it helps me attempt read the sup/res which I still havent mastered.

 

[bbmac]

The screenshot is the recent 1hr price action with potential resistance at the red lines, being former swings.

Currently area of 9825 being the 38.2% fib of the fall from 2.0101 area causing the local resistance, in this 9811-50 area highlighted yesterday. In this area too is the wkly pivot 9830-35 and wkly H3 cam b/o pivot at 9832.

9870 is the 23.6% of fall from 0576. A former daily swing low is at that 9876 area with 50% of the former fall from 2.0101 area there too.

 

[TheBramble]

Cable 09:18

R2 pivot at 1.9811 showing good support as RSI heads down to oversold. Expect a slip back down, but if it can get above 1.9831 and 1.9838 levels (local and longer term minor Resistance) it could be a good long call to 1.9914 (R3).

 

[JTrader]

since I also use the zig-zag, I use the last but one zig as SL exit, which will be a function of the particular pairs volatility. OR the previous days session Highs/Lows.
See! I can use price-action as well as MAs.

EDIT: what are your darts telling you today?

The last but one zig zag is likely to be many pips away - on cable, currently around 100 pips away with the default zigzag input parameters on the 5-min.

 

[Hook Shot]

Eurosterling looks interesting......

This has been a lovely ride........ best trade of 2k7 but all good things have to come to an end don't they ??

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Fair reversal set-ups at that gbpusd resistance mentioned above, set-ups to 15min chart. The screenshopt is my 1min trigger set-up and the 5min (secondary chart) showing overboughgt conditions with breeches of various channels.

1min (trigger) Reversal type A.
5min breech of upper donchian, 2nd fib tunnel extreme, 1st resistance channel (61.8) and first fib channel.

 

[JTrader]

Fair reversal set-ups at that gbpusd resistance mentioned above, set-ups to 15min chart. The screenshopt is my 1min trigger set-up and the 5min (secondary chart) showing overboughgt conditions with breeches of various channels.

1min (trigger) Reversal type A.
5min breech of upper donchian, 2nd fib tunnel extreme, 1st resistance channel (61.8) and first fib channel.

Hi BB

it might be easier for the reader if u put on anetry and exit arrow above/below the corresponding chart candle :idea:.

 

[bbmac]

Good idea JT. screenshot of the 1min trigger shows that now. (attached)

Individual candle/small group candle patterns price action confirm entry for any indicator set-up (repeatable pattern) at supp/res/sbr/rbs, as overall peak/valley price action determines trend on each time frame.

 

[bbmac]

targets/exits

Re targets/exits

For me these depend on whether the set-up is with or against trend, and to some extent as to where I am on the day.

I judge a reversal target for eg, on how many time frames have a confirming set-up above my trigger. That reversal set-up for example was at a known area of potential resistance with reversal set-ups on 5min intermediate and 15min next time frames and against a 135pip intraday uptrend. In these circumstances I had thought that a 2:1 risk:reward target was possible. As it was my 2nd trade of the day and i had already locked in my daily target I was more likley to hold and let it run, but as it was with an entry at 9816bid I took +28pips which represented a reward of just over 1:1. The choice was to let it run or take profit over the minimum 1:1 r;r target (to ensure that average winner is always equal to or greater tha average loser.)

EDIT: (10:53am) That trade just achieved what would have been it's 2;1 r:r target, lol.

 

[dubala]

, Do not want to derail the thread or sound abrupt. I was just wondering If had a pound5k account with 100% levarage trading fx what would be a relistic average. return in 1 year if i have a sound simple strategy and good money management skills and sticking to my guns. A reply would be appreciated, looked all over and just cant find anything on it.

 

[JTrader]

, Do not want to derail the thread or sound abrupt. I was just wondering If had a pound5k account with 100% levarage trading fx what would be a relistic average. return in 1 year if i have a sound simple strategy and good money management skills and sticking to my guns. A reply would be appreciated, looked all over and just cant find anything on it.

Could you be any more general/non-specific :?: :|.

 

[dubala]

ok, trading eur/dolar, 2:1 reward risk ratio, not trading more than 1 % at any one time. average non aggresive strategy. got a ball park figure? %

 

[JTrader]

ok, trading eur/dolar, 2:1 reward risk ratio, not trading more than 1 % at any one time. average non aggresive strategy. got a ball park figure? %

No - as it would be pretty meaningless.