FTSE100- June

[KJH]

Hi All,
FTSE 10.30 am.
2 charts attached, 5 & 30 min ftse
The 61.8% fib Ret at 4510 is holding the lid on any progress at the moment to the upside. As is 4500 to the downside.
Some space to fill, as noted by others, down to 4460 remains to be filled.
We may consolidate here before making a run to the previous daily swing high of 4574 with 78.6%Fib Ret resistance of 4450 along the way.
After such a long sideways consolidation prior to the move up to this level we may not get to fill the space down to 4460ish.
Thoughts / comments / criticisms ...welcomed....
KJH
Pls ignore the time scale. I'm GMT+7
Also, I know I asked it the other day but does anyone know how to get rid of the 'spaces' between the close and the next open on SierraCharts with IB feed ?
Thanks.

 

[KJH]

Hi
1.40pm - 5min chart
Ftse made a lower high intra day
Sma's trying to turn down.
4500 being test but it doens't want to break down.
Intra day low will be next support then Mondays low...
What time is the Interest rate announcement made tomorrow?
I'm assuming that is what is stalling the market at present.
KJ

 

[splasher]

My calendar says 11.00 but i'm sure it is usually at 12.00 so i'll go for that.
Looks to be weakening now on the ftse and i still feel it may fill gap down to 4460 before moving forward again.
Levelsfor futs to take out to reach it are 4495 and 4482, then we should see 4462
Splash
PS Do you just trade the ftse KJH and any reason why considering the time problems?

 

[alliance]

yeah Spalsher ur right.....12 noon GMT

 

[KJH]

PS Do you just trade the ftse KJH and any reason why considering the time problems?

Thanks for the interest rate announcement time splasher.
I trade the Ftse and ES-mini.
I live in Perth, West Oz. In summer we are 3 hours behind Sydney and most of the big stocks especially those that move the index are traded as ADR's on the US exchanges ( and UK)
So, not being an early riser I just couldn't get my act together with checking out what had gone on in the US and then be ready to trade at 7am. Mind you the index had already moved on our overnight market anyhow (Sycom) and cause that is VERY thin in the evening the boys can run it and stop you out every night if they want.....
Trading UK ( also DAX) I 've got all day to get ready, not that I take all day, but by 3pm in the afternoon I'm ready for your open at 8am summer time, 4 pm winter.....
This flows thru to the US open at 9.30pm local time till you guys close at 11.30pm local time presently. Then it's off to the sack.
I don't trade CFD's I use IB and trade the FTSE futures and options on futures.
Long winded answer--did I answer you qustion?
KJ.
ps FTSe broke intra day low and recovered in a real hurry. IFthe US has any strenght I don't think it is going down there tonight. But-- t rade the market not the forecast....

 

[bracke]

splasher

No do not count candles but keep a daily chart of the ftse and dow showing high, low and close figure.
I mark up when there have been 3 or more days of up or down

This year trading the 4th day to the opposite of the other 3days would have been profitable but there would have been a max draw down of 210 point on the dow and 51 on the ftse

It is not 100%. last year there were occasions when there were up to 10/11 days the same.

Regards

bracke

 

[splasher]

Moving down again to the lows and volumes up but agreed on US. however i'd be surprised to see a sustained rally from here and if we do it willbe very temporary
Interesting story on why ftse futs, i trade them but just because they are liquid and i feel close to the action being the domestic exchange, same reason why i trade gilts instead of bunds when the bonds are moving, nonsense really in the wired world
Sounds a good life starting work at 3.00 but i'm sure the sun helps the lifestyle

 

[splasher]

Bracke did you buy/sell on opening on the 4th day or trade the close of the 3rd day out of interest.

 

[bracke]

mully

Would you care to comment on the chart.

There was high volume at approx 12.20 and 01.30 with little price movement, why? Particularly the 12.20 volume.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

splasher

Went short the June ftse at 4509 at approx 4.00 yesterday.

I didn't take the trade the previous day because I was wary of the US and I still am.

Regards

bracke

 

[kevin546]

My guess would be that during this time the price was tested with buy and sell orders about even. Once the buying was all done the sells were then able to continue to put pressure on the price forcing it lower.

Kevin

 

[splasher]

Nice trade Bracke, i'm also short but at 4496.5 from previous day, the urge to be right overtook reason and i traded what i thought would happen not what the charts said...........repenting at leisure

 

[KJH]

Nice trade Bracke, i'm also short but at 4496.5 from previous day, the urge to be right overtook reason and i traded what i thought would happen not what the charts said...........repenting at leisure

Splasher / Bracke
At what level are your stoploss's on these shorts?
KJH

 

[splasher]

4540 mental stop but only small position so more awaiting a definition of where market is going from here
My biggest worry is that everyone seems to be short and when that happens it only seems to go in one direction......................

 

[bracke]

kevin546

You may be correct but that was a lot of volume for very little movement. I think that I may ask the same question on the no indicators thread and let Socrates have a rant at me!

splasher

You were obviously overcome by your natural eagerness and exuberance but 4496.5 is not a bad position.

KJH

Stops are a sore point with me particularly on the dow. I have come to the conclusion that when trading the monthly dow the stop needs to be 130/150 points away to prevent the spikes and volatility getting one. I know its a longstop but cannot see any other way

My stop on the ftse is at 4600, again I am wary of spikes

Regards

bracke

 

[KJH]

4540 mental stop but only small position so more awaiting a definition of where market is going from here
My biggest worry is that everyone seems to be short and when that happens it only seems to go in one direction......................

Interesting.....
I can't swallow that much risk myself no matter how small the position.....
You're right about market sentiment.......
KJ

 

[splasher]

Do you use a mental or physically placed stop KJH?
Also do you base you stops on a technical level or just on x points away from entry to predetermine your maximum loss?

 

[mully]

Bracke,

Large volume with no effect (implies matched buyers and sellers) is not taken as a positive sign about the direction of the market-demand has met supply..

However, one of the problems of monitoring intra-day volume is that you are vulnerable to individual institutional agency crosses where large blocks of stocks are placed with other institutions by brokers. High volume is recorded, but matched buyers and sellers effectively cancel out each other.

That why some people use a MA of volume to get around individual spikes.

 

[mully]

I'm about to be distracted by my 8 year olds birthday party. School break up (out?) at 3.25pm. Expected to pull my weight.

 

[KJH]

Do you use a mental or physically placed stop KJH?
Also do you base you stops on a technical level or just on x points away from entry to predetermine your maximum loss?

Always Physical stops splasher for this boy. It's not that I can't be trusted but.......!
I like to place my stops as close to entry as possible basis where the market should not go if I'm right on direction. This is usually within 15-20 points on position trades. Yes, that makes it tight but I'm either right or I'm wrong.
Intra day stuff it is real tight. I want movement when I'm intra daytrading and even tho I place a physical stop I usually overide it if hte market doesn't move and just close out at market.
The chart I posted earlier with the 5&30 min chart was a classic example. It was either going to break down or it wasn't. My stoploss, had I wanted to go short would have been at 4503 as it should not go back above that level if it was going to trend down.
The reason I wasn't interested was. a) I've got the flu and my head isn't right today nor the last 2 days, its coming into winter downunder. b) I don't know what is going. c) all the selling I observed today was met with buying, not strong buying but supported every time. d) all the ftse options I'm watching are bid up...
KJH