FTSE100- June

[mully]

Well, markets managed to get through their own versions of "triple witching" hour on Friday without any material impact.

We now move towards the close of the Q2, so there may be some positive portfolio adjustments for the institutions.

Also the market important US Fed rate decision is rapidly approaching. Is it going to be 25 bps or 50bps?

We are also in the 'lull before the storm' period for US corporates reporting Q2 results.

Last week global equities rose 1.4%, though the cyclical Asian markets saw some sharp sell-offs. (note HK China H shares index).

Some tame US inflation figures appeared to calm some nerves ahead of the Fed decision to raise interest rates at the end of the month

 

[mully]

FTSE stock contribution review

Thanks for the oil stocks last week

 

[mully]

FTSE100 chart

I have put on IMHO support/resistance areas (green lines)

The positive blue trendline is still in operation.

1day SMA is climbing and FTSE is above it

D4F quoting 4517/21 +12

 

[mully]

Forget to add

Nikkei +2.2% this morning

and in US

Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia (4th biggest US bank)may buy SouthTrust, Alabama's biggest lender, for at least $11.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Talks between the two banks continued through the weekend, said the people, who asked not to be identified. Based on the average premium of recent acquisitions, SouthTrust may fetch as much as $14 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News

 

[mully]

First action looks like REJECTION

 

[mully]

Support Trendline being tested.

 

[KJH]

Hi
Re: Mully's post # 383
You might be able to label wave 5 now on your chart as complete?
KJH

 

[barjon]

mornin' all

on a darkside basis (if you've been following the no indicators thread) this hammer and high volume look interesting!! Maybe the start of something?

 

[mully]

To-day is another reminder of the problems of the FTSE100 and its constituent weightings.

LloydsTSB update this morning was not taken well, impacting the whole banking sector.

As you all know, 5 of the top 10 stocks in the FTSE100 are banks, which account for 1/3 of the total weighting in the index.

Unfortunately, a sneeze by one of the banks has the possibility of causing a heavy cold for the FTSE 100 a la to-day.

 

[Fluke]

Mully.
Looking at your chart on to days post number 383,I have done a measured ABCD calculation and if we are bullish, the target is 4543 .Let see what happens,what does the team think.?

 

[KJH]

Mully.
Looking at your chart on to days post number 383,I have done a measured ABCD calculation and if we are bullish, the target is 4543 .Let see what happens,what does the team think.?

Hi,
On the attached chart I've projected a couple of Price Expansions/projections from the swing from June 8 -June 14 that people will be watching imho.
The 1st one uses the range from Low of June 3 to June 8 high projected from the June 14 low.
This gives 4545, 100% range expansion -- Green lines
The other is 14june low to 18 june high projected from the low of june 18. This gives 4554-5
The 61.8% range projection of the swing from Mar 24 low to 23 april high taken from may 17 low = 4555
Plus, previous swing up (June 3 low to 8 june = 115 points. June 14 low = 4430 + 115 = 4545
So yes a few fibs around 4545-4555 and other stuff.=

Note also the pink lines outlinning what could still be a bear flag.....

KJH

 

[Fluke]

KJH.
I have worked on the same swings as you and agree on the target of 4555.I will add another point.
Fib grid 4602/4361,the retracement of 786 comes to 4551,so all roads lead to Rome!!>
I am having trouble posting charts off my sharescope,they come out too big.

 

[KJH]

KJH.
I have worked on the same swings as you and agree on the target of 4555.I will add another point.
Fib grid 4602/4361,the retracement of 786 comes to 4551,so all roads lead to Rome!!>
I am having trouble posting charts off my sharescope,they come out too big.

Interesting ......
I must add tho, for the observers......
"trade the market and not the forecast"
Maybe I should add that to my signature.....

Another one I like goes like this...
The name of the game is not predicting what the market will do but having a plan that
enables you to be PROACTIVE to what the market actually does...
I used to have written 'react' where 'proactive' is. What a difference that change made sometime ago.....
Hope this helps someone.....
KJH

 

[Fluke]

Interesting ......
I must add tho, for the observers......
"trade the market and not the forecast"
Maybe I should add that to my signature.....
KLH.
I agree with you.my post was not a recommendation to trade ,it was just a possible target.
Thought I would post it as a possible measured move and help to keep the interest going on the thread.

 

[KJH]

Interesting ......
I must add tho, for the observers......
"trade the market and not the forecast"
Maybe I should add that to my signature.....
KLH.
I agree with you.my post was not a recommendation to trade ,it was just a possible target.
Thought I would post it as a possible measured move and help to keep the interest going on the thread.

Absolutley.....its good to have you contributing Fluke.....
Re:
...'the interest...'
It certainly appears to be droping or maybe it is just a result of the summer season?
Mully and a few others always put in a good effort. It's good to hear from Hooya when his drops by also.....
I'm here till mid afternoon then I catch up the next day with the thread....( I'm gmt +7 so I hit the sack around 4pm your time unless something is really happening.....)
KJH

 

[leeshindig]

added news page to site...

breaks down news into sections for ease of browsing

uk/us/euro markets

currencies

commodities

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/NewsPage.htm

anyone any good news links I can add?

 

[bracke]

Just to add to the above posts.

To-days Pivot 4497
R1 4520
S1 4483

These compare with mully's chart resistance at 4515, support at 4478 and lower trend line at 4488.

The target suggested by KJH and Fluke of 4550 is close to the R3 of 4557 indicared by the pivot method.

To-days low so far is 4485 and high of 4503

So support at 4480 ish is holding but not yet got to 4515/4520.

Regards

bracke

 

[KJH]

Goodmorning all,
Tues am--see attached daily chart.
Support at 4480 holding.... thus far
If that lets go next support I have is 4470 being 50% of the previous swing up.
Also, being the swing highs of the past sideways consolidation.
If these don't hold I'm targeting 4445ish as this was the mid point the sideways consolidation rotated around and also a 50% retracement of the previous larger up swing (24 Mar low to Apr 23 high)
If this does occur it doesn't rule out higher prices in the near term but puts a big dent in upside momentum imho.
Thoughts/ comments welcomed !
KJH

 

[KJH]

There goes 4480.
4476 = yesterdays range subtracted from todays high any sustained move beyond that = possibly more weakness and the targets outlined in previous post imho
Lets see if 4480-1 offers any sort of resistance now.....
kjh

 

[mully]

FTSE100 chart

IMHO, lower support still holding(just)