Technical Outlook with Charts | zForex

[Z Forex]

Markets Lean Cautiously Risk-On (05.11.2026)​

Global markets remained focused on the intersection of geopolitics and policy as investors tracked developments around Iran and the upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Beijing on May 13–15. Discussions are expected to cover the fragile ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz, trade tensions, Taiwan, and rare earth exports, while both sides also prepare agreements tied to agriculture, Boeing aircraft, and technology cooperation.

US equities closed the week at fresh highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extending gains on strong labor data, resilient earnings, and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. The broader rally persisted despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East.

The dollar index slipped below 98, its weakest level in ten weeks, even after strong employment figures. Markets continued balancing solid US economic data against concerns that higher energy prices could keep inflation pressure in place and delay future Fed easing.

Bond markets reflected a more cautious tone. US Treasury yields moved lower as investors sought safety following weaker consumer sentiment data, while Japan’s 10-year yield climbed on stronger wage growth and renewed concern over energy costs tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Rises on Easing Geopolitical Risks​

The euro rose past 1.175, reaching its best level in weeks as optimism regarding U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks lifted market sentiment. Support also came from expectations of further ECB interest rate hikes. While these factors pushed the currency higher, gains were limited by fresh trade friction after Donald Trump cautioned the European Union about potential tariff increases.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1770, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1660.

Gold Falls Below 4,700​

Gold dropped under $4,700 after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This renewed instability sparked fears of persistent inflation and prolonged high interest rates, weighing on non-yielding assets. Additionally, strong U.S. jobs data reinforced confidence in economic resilience, further dampening the metal's appeal as investors weighed geopolitical risks against a strong domestic outlook.

First resistance is seen at $4725, with initial support near $4645.

Yen Holds Steady Near 157​

The Japanese yen remained around 157 per dollar, ending the week largely flat as Tokyo's warnings failed to spark a lasting rally. Despite official readiness to act, no new intervention was confirmed. While rising real wages in Japan support the case for further Bank of Japan policy tightening, the yen faces heavy pressure from a resilient U.S. dollar. Persistent geopolitical friction between Washington and Tehran also continues to weigh on the currency, offsetting domestic hawkish signals.

Initial resistance stands at 158.10, while the first support is located at 156.50.

Sterling Holds Near Highs​

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3590, maintaining levels near multi-month peaks as the pound gains from a hawkish Bank of England stance and dollar softness. Ongoing inflation risks and energy cost pressures provide a solid foundation for rate hike expectations. Investors are now shifting focus toward upcoming U.S. inflation reports and UK GDP data, which will likely serve as the primary catalysts for the pair's next trend.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3610, with support around 1.3520.

Silver Consolidates Near Multi-Year Peaks​

Silver is trading around $80.24, consolidating near multi-year highs as investors balance safe-haven demand against a stronger dollar and easing inflation fears. Middle East volatility and U.S.–Iran uncertainty continue to drive fluctuations, while upcoming U.S. inflation data dictates market sentiment. Despite short-term overbought signals, the broader technical outlook remains bullish, supported by resilient industrial demand and ongoing supply constraints.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $82.90 while support is located around $77.70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude surged above $104 per barrel, gaining more than 3% as stalled US–Iran negotiations and renewed conflict risks tightened supply expectations around the Strait of Hormuz.

The move reflected growing concern over disruptions to global oil flows, with broader energy markets reacting in the same direction.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 106.50 with initial support near 104.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 continued trading near record highs, supported by ongoing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and strong US employment data.

Stretched technical conditions point to the possibility of consolidation after the recent rally, with markets also tracking inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, and geopolitical developments.

Resistance stands at 28,800, while the nearest support is located at 28,500.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded around $81,000, extending its recent recovery and holding above the $78,000-$80,000 region. Institutional demand and continued ETF inflows kept momentum constructive, while traders focused on the $83,000–$84,000 area as the next major test.

Support near $79,000 remains important if volatility increases.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 83,000, while support is at 79,000.

Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan remained near 6.80, holding close to its strongest level in more than three years.

Stronger Chinese inflation figures and improving economic signals continued to support the currency, while softer dollar demand ahead of expected US-China diplomatic discussions added further momentum.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8020, with support positioned near 6.7800.

 

[Z Forex]

Euro Holds Firm as ECB Bets Rise (05.12.2026)​

President Trump described the US-Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support” after dismissing Tehran’s latest proposal, which reportedly included sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and continued Iranian influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Even with diplomatic channels still open, the standoff continues to unsettle energy markets, keeping oil prices firm and shipping routes under pressure.

The shift has quickly filtered into bond markets. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to its highest level since 1997 as traders increased expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase, driven by rising fuel costs and broader inflation pressure. In the United States, Treasury yields also pushed higher as concerns grew that borrowing costs may remain restrictive longer than previously expected.

The dollar regained momentum as investors moved back toward defensive positioning. Ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz and the possibility of renewed confrontation continued to support energy prices, leaving inflation concerns firmly in place. Attention now turns to upcoming US inflation figures and the planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping later this week.

Equity futures traded with a softer tone ahead of the inflation release, though enthusiasm around artificial intelligence continued to keep major technology and semiconductor shares close to record territory.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Holds Near Peaks​

The euro stayed above $1.175, maintaining levels near a three-week high. Investors are balancing escalating U.S.–Iran friction with a growing likelihood of further ECB rate hikes. Soaring oil prices, driven by the Strait of Hormuz standoff and failing diplomacy, have intensified regional inflation fears.

Markets now expect at least two interest rate increases this year after Christine Lagarde confirmed the central bank's readiness to take swift action if price pressures persist.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1770, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1660.

Gold Falls Toward 4,720​

Gold prices dipped toward $4,720 as a strong dollar and persistent inflation fears weighed on the metal. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S.–Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz disruptions kept oil prices high, intensifying worries about supply chains.

Investors stayed defensive before crucial U.S. inflation reports, while talk of possible new military operations in the Middle East added a fresh layer of geopolitical risk to the global market outlook.

First resistance is seen at $4770, with initial support near $4675.

Silver Dips Toward 85​

Silver fell toward $85 as initial gains disappeared. High oil prices and inflation fears, driven by Middle East volatility and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, weighed on the metal. Donald Trump's comments on the unstable U.S.–Iran ceasefire further clouded the outlook.

While industrial growth and safe-haven needs previously supported prices, investors have now moved to the sidelines ahead of critical U.S. inflation data to find a clearer trend.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $87.80 while support is located around $83.20

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3610, with support around 1.3520.

Yen Weakens Toward 157.5​

The Japanese yen slipped to around 157.5 per dollar for a second day as a dominant dollar and U.S.–Iran ceasefire uncertainty fueled inflation risks. Investors are monitoring high-level discussions between Japanese and U.S. officials for signs of currency intervention.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan suggested that soaring oil prices might provide enough inflationary pressure to justify additional interest rate hikes soon, even as geopolitical volatility continues to support the dollar.

Initial resistance stands at 158.10, while the first support is located at 156.50.

Sterling Eyes 1.36 Level​

GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias near 1.36, consolidating close to multi-month peaks ahead of the pivotal U.S. inflation report. A hawkish Bank of England stance and broader dollar weakness continue to underpin the pound.

However, upward momentum has slowed as investors evaluate stiff technical resistance, UK political developments, and global geopolitical risks, keeping the pair in a cautious holding pattern before the next volatility catalyst.

Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan remained firm near 6.79 per dollar, its strongest level since early 2023, supported by stronger trade data and growing attention around the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting. Chinese exports jumped sharply in April, while imports also reached record levels, reflecting resilient demand tied in part to AI-related investment.

Inflation figures also pointed to gradually strengthening price pressure as markets prepared for high-level discussions between Washington and Beijing.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8020, with support positioned near 6.7800.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed above $105 per barrel as renewed strain between the United States and Iran increased concern about prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump described the ceasefire as being on massive life support after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal. Markets also weighed reports of possible US military planning and shipping escorts, while Saudi Aramco warned that ongoing supply interruptions could delay stabilization in global energy markets.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 106.50 with initial support near 104.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index advanced toward 29,204, extending a powerful rally driven by earnings strength and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.

Technical signals now point to stretched conditions after the recent surge, leaving room for a period of consolidation.

Resistance stands at 29,400, while the nearest support is located at 29,150.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded near $81,200, easing slightly after stalling below the key $82,000 barrier following a strong recent run. Institutional demand and continued ETF inflows continued to support the broader structure, while inflation risks, Federal Reserve expectations, and Middle East developments remained central to sentiment.

Technical indicators still point to constructive medium-term momentum despite near-term consolidation.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 82,800, while support is at 78,200.

 

[Z Forex]

Yields Rise While Metals Trade Mixed (05.13.2026)​

Iran’s oil flows from Kharg Island, the country’s main export hub, appear to have stalled for several days for the first time since the conflict began, according to satellite imagery. With tanker movement through the Persian Gulf still restricted, storage facilities and offshore vessels are rapidly filling, increasing the likelihood that Tehran may need to cut production further if exports remain frozen.

Bond markets reacted quickly to the supply strain. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed close to 2.59%, reaching its highest level since 1997, as traders leaned further into expectations of a Bank of Japan rate increase driven by oil-related inflation pressure. In the United States, the 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 4.46% after stronger inflation figures weakened the case for near-term Fed easing.

The dollar also regained strength, holding above 98 after April inflation accelerated to 3.8%, with higher fuel costs playing a major role. Focus now shifts to upcoming producer price data for a clearer read on whether inflation pressure is broadening.

Equity futures traded more cautiously after a mixed Wall Street session, where rising oil prices and renewed concern around the US–Iran conflict weighed on technology shares. Investors are now balancing strong corporate earnings against the growing possibility that borrowing costs may remain restrictive longer than previously expected.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Eases Toward 1.17​

The euro softened toward $1.17 as investors weighed escalating U.S.–Iran friction against the likelihood of more ECB rate hikes. Surging oil prices, sparked by Middle East volatility, have heightened European inflation risks and solidified bets on tighter monetary policy.

While Christine Lagarde confirmed the central bank's readiness to intervene, modest improvements in German sentiment provided only a minor cushion for the currency.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1770, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1660.

Gold Weakens as Yields Rise​

Gold dropped below $4,700 as strong U.S. inflation data lowered hopes for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts. Rising Treasury yields, driven by energy-linked price pressures in the Middle East, further weighed on the non-yielding metal.

Market sentiment was also hit by India’s hike in precious metal import duties, a move designed to reduce demand and stabilize its currency amidst global economic volatility.

First resistance is seen at $4770, with initial support near $4640.

Yen Weakens Toward 158​

The Japanese yen slipped toward 158 per dollar as strong U.S. inflation data strengthened the dollar and solidified expectations for a restrictive Federal Reserve. Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan suggested that oil-driven price pressures might necessitate further rate increases.

Investors remain on high alert for currency intervention, especially after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated support for measures intended to stabilize the yen and curb excessive market volatility.

Initial resistance stands at 158.10, while the first support is located at 156.80.

Sterling Softens Amid Political Crisis​

The British pound dipped to $1.354, retreating from recent two-month peaks as a severe leadership crisis and U.S.–Iran friction dampened sentiment. Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces intense pressure to resign following poor local election results and growing internal party dissent.

Simultaneously, soaring oil prices from Middle East instability have heightened inflation risks, fueling market expectations that the Bank of England may implement further interest rate hikes to stabilize the economy.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3610, with support around 1.3470.

Silver Hits Two-Month High​

Silver climbed past $87 per ounce, marking a two-month peak as high demand from the electronics and renewable energy sectors fueled a rally. While gains were somewhat limited by strong U.S. inflation data, which supported the dollar and dampened rate cut hopes, the metal remains well supported.

High oil prices and India's recent hike in import duties have further heightened volatility across global bullion markets as supply deficits persist into 2026.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $87.80 while support is located around $84.20.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded between $80,500 and $81,000, holding above the key $78,200 support zone after recent volatility triggered by stronger US inflation readings.

Institutional inflows continued to provide a steady base for prices, though reduced expectations for Fed easing kept momentum contained. Price action remains locked within a broader consolidation range between $78,200 and $82,800.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 82,800, while support is at 78,200.

Brent Oil​

Brent crude slipped below $107 per barrel, ending a three-session advance even as supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved. Relations between the United States and Iran stayed strained after Washington rejected Tehran’s latest proposal, keeping pressure on energy markets.

Higher fuel costs continue to feed inflation concerns and reinforce expectations of restrictive monetary conditions globally.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 107.50 with initial support near 105.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 traded near 29,065, falling roughly 0.87% after strong US inflation data cooled enthusiasm around future Fed rate reductions.

The index pulled back from recent highs around 29,300–29,370, though the broader trend remains constructive. Holding above the 28,500–28,700 region remains important for preserving upward momentum.

Resistance stands at 29,350, while the nearest support is located at 28,700.

Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan held near 6.79 per dollar for a second straight session, staying close to its strongest level since February 2023 as attention turned to the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting.

Discussions are expected to focus heavily on trade relations, tariffs, technology, and broader geopolitical issues, with markets looking for signs that the current trade truce could be extended.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8020, with support positioned near 6.7800.