FTSE100 July 2004

[alliance]

Your comment about 9800 has got me confused ( my age again ) as the lowest its been over the last few days is 9914, can you explain please.

Good morning all

apologies Bracke. In my haste I typed 9800 when I of course meant 9900 (IG ftr touched 9897 on Mon nt tho if u blinked u would have missed it)!

Did you go with your 'gut feeling' yesterday ? If not, why not. Could it be that you know it is very tenuous and not supported by analysis. Having said that if you were following the dow yesterday the chart would have supported you.

No I didnt, not bcoz it was tenuous, (I would have set a sufficiently wide stop to @ least have seen me thru the day)....but as previously stated..busy day 2day then away til next week and not a puter in sight..so risk/reward over that time frame wasnt worth it for me. The markets arent going anywhere...they will still be here next week, and I am in no rush to make or lose money :!:


I don't have ANY charts TO follow bracke...I dont use TA ! And even if I did have a chart..I cant make head nor tail of them anyway, so would be no wiser.

Perhaps you could deveop a new indicator - AGF on second thoughts GAF(FE) might be better

lol, the only GAf(FE) I made was NOT following my gut instinct on this occasion!!! Even u have to agree bracke that when I post my instinct in advance...it usually comes to pass! Even allowing 4 me taking profits early and running, at least 100 points up 4 grabs Mon nt into Tues eve on dow/ftse :cheesy:

Off out now, will catch up later this evening...wishing everyone good trading day!

 

[bracke]

"I don't have ANY charts TO follow bracke...I dont use TA ! And even if I did have a chart..I cant make head nor tail of them anyway, so would be no wiser."

Does this mean that you are going to continue relying on that gut of yours. Why not let a little TA lighten your darkness.

"lol, the only GAf(FE) I made was NOT following my gut instinct on this occasion!!! Even u have to agree bracke that when I post my instinct in advance...it usually comes to pass! Even allowing 4 me taking profits early and running, at least 100 points up 4 grabs Mon nt into Tues eve on dow/ftse :cheesy:"

But you didn't trade your instinct so it doesn't count.
Not wanting to put you on the spot - but I will - It would be interesting if you were to keep a tally on this thread of your point gains but only from actual trades not from 'if only ones'. It would concentrate your mind and provide an insight into the workings of the alliance intestinal system but only from a trading viewpoint ; additional intimacy is best avoided.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Is the chart below "saying" sell on a day basis.

Comments, with reasons invited.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Is the chart below "saying" sell on a day basis.

Comments, with reasons invited.

Regards

bracke

Judging by the underwhelming respone there wasn't any great interest in the chart, or if there was, it wasn't articulated.

I show the completed chart below which shows that selling wasn't a good trade, I lost 1 point.
but the opening gap from this morning is still there. Will see if the dow causes it to close overnight.

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Hi bracke, a final post b4 my extended break...just for u

Does this mean that you are going to continue relying on that gut of yours. Why not let a little TA lighten your darkness.

Well bracke..guess what? A TA bolt of lightening is perhaps about to strike! YES REALLY!!! A few weeks ago on the www.insight.com thread on T2W , Stu Whisson offered to train 2 novice and 2 senior members free of charge in an endeavour to prove his site/training credentials, and prove the doubting thomas's wrong. I asked to be considered (as a relative novice with no TA knowledge whatsoever), and got a pm and em@il from him to say ok! So don't despair bracke..I may yet blind u with my TA knowledge (dont hold ur breath tho)!

But you didn't trade your instinct so it doesn't count.
Not wanting to put you on the spot - but I will - It would be interesting if you were to keep a tally on this thread of your point gains but only from actual trades not from 'if only ones'. It would concentrate your mind and provide an insight into the workings of the alliance intestinal system but only from a trading viewpoint ; additional intimacy is best avoided.

Ah now bracke, I agree wholeheartedly with ur comments, and if u read back on this thread, previously I have only ever posted actual trades..good and bad! My comment about the dow/ftse 100 points was made purely in response to your cynicism of my poor tender gut :cheesy: and to illustrate to u that sometimes...just sometimes... it does pay to follow ur initial instinct even tho it goes against "the norm". :idea: Maybe I am a contrarian trader! I have also previously said two other things....1. that I do read a bit of analysis...and 2. that I have previously lost a fair amount of money...hence my apprehension and subsequent inaction on Monday nt re the Dow. In no way was I advocating trading based purely on gut instinct...indeed my lack of TA understanding frustrates me greatly especially on days like yesterday hence my delight @ being included in the aforementioned 121 training!

I hope this has cleared any misunderstanding up bracke...I am certainly not knocking TA!

btw, I just need to look @ my trading balance to concentrate the mind

Happy trading for Thursday, Friday....and have a GREAT weekend everyone!

 

[bracke]

Hi bracke, a final post b4 my extended break...just for u


Well bracke..guess what? A TA bolt of lightening is perhaps about to strike! YES REALLY!!! A few weeks ago on the www.insight.com thread on T2W , Stu Whisson offered to train 2 novice and 2 senior members free of charge in an endeavour to prove his site/training credentials, and prove the doubting thomas's wrong. I asked to be considered (as a relative novice with no TA knowledge whatsoever), and got a pm and em@il from him to say ok! So don't despair bracke..I may yet blind u with my TA knowledge (dont hold ur breath tho)!

Ah now bracke, I agree wholeheartedly with ur comments, and if u read back on this thread, previously I have only ever posted actual trades..good and bad! My comment about the dow/ftse 100 points was made purely in response to your cynicism of my poor tender gut :cheesy: and to illustrate to u that sometimes...just sometimes... it does pay to follow ur initial instinct even tho it goes against "the norm". :idea: Maybe I am a contrarian trader! I have also previously said two other things....1. that I do read a bit of analysis...and 2. that I have previously lost a fair amount of money...hence my apprehension and subsequent inaction on Monday nt re the Dow. In no way was I advocating trading based purely on gut instinct...indeed my lack of TA understanding frustrates me greatly especially on days like yesterday hence my delight @ being included in the aforementioned 121 training!

I hope this has cleared any misunderstanding up bracke...I am certainly not knocking TA!

btw, I just need to look @ my trading balance to concentrate the mind

Happy trading for Thursday, Friday....and have a GREAT weekend everyone!

Heaven Forefend alliance, you and TA, wonders will never cease!

I appreciate that you may not read this for some while but if I don't put my thoughts down now I may miss the opportunity.

Congratulations on your course selection, I am very pleased for you and looking forward to your TA enlightenment and hoping that us novices can learn from you. It will be interesting to read your thoughts on TA and the course, I wish you good fortune with your endeavours. When does the course commence and where is it held ?

I didn't think that you were anti TA, just lacked understanding of its application and I fully understand your apprehension - once bitten, twice shy.

Look forward to discussing with you next week.

Regards

bracke

PS Perhaps after your TA Course you should change your name to 'New alliance' or TAlliance

 

[barjon]

mornin' bracke

reckon we can count the 4290 support area as having held despite the slight dip below (a little spring?).
now through 4391 - wonder if that's temporary or if it'll now become support? - with a fib50 at around 4409 looming. what're you going to do without a gap to entertain you?

cheers

jon

 

[bracke]

mornin' bracke

reckon we can count the 4290 support area as having held despite the slight dip below (a little spring?).
now through 4391 - wonder if that's temporary or if it'll now become support? - with a fib50 at around 4409 looming. what're you going to do without a gap to entertain you?

cheers

jon

Hello barjon

It's nice to have someone to converse with, it got very lonely on this thread yesterday.
pivot support R1 = 4376 R2 = 4397 R3 = 4422. has got to 4397 will it get to 4422. The fib at 4409 may well put paid to that plus of course the US will have it's say later.

Glad you mentioned gaps - there was another small one this morning and of course there is yesterdays still to be filled but that would mean dropping below 4391 to 4325. A few days ago we had what was thought to be an 'abandoned baby' ftse must be very close to reclaiming it, if it hasn't done so already. So the gaps still entertain and reward.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

bracke

abandoned baby well and truly collected now. pretty powerful today, particularly following yesterday's up gap - just a sharp corrective rally to the downtrend or is the tide beginning to turn?

 

[bracke]

bracke

abandoned baby well and truly collected now. pretty powerful today, particularly following yesterday's up gap - just a sharp corrective rally to the downtrend or is the tide beginning to turn?

I like a happy ending, almost made me cry - but not quite.
ftse focusing on the good stuff ie ICI and DOW,ignoring the bad ie debt,house price increases,interest rate rises and oil price.

How much further will the market makers try to push the dow & ftse up before thet hit us with the continuing down trend.

I am very wary of believing that the tide has turned, I want to see ftse significantly above 200dma before I believe that the upturn is set to run. But must remember to trade what I see and not let my opinions get in the way.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

I thought that the chart below might put to-days action into perespective. Don't all rush at once with your comments. Yes I know sarcasm is the lowest form of wit but when all else fails maybe sarcasm might work.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

mmm, from a different perspective you could say the long term trend is still intact (we're still well above fib50 after all) even though the intermediate has turned down. So far as the intermediate's concerned support holding around 4300 may prove significant. If we turn around before we get to the downtrend line that support may well get re-tested?

Opinions are worthless tho', as you say, bracke, trade what you see.

 

[bracke]

Dow futures moving about between +10 and +30
There is no diary news due from the US to-day, tomorrow there is personal consumption & Mich consumer confidence figures.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Please excuse me fiddling with your chart barjon but I couldn't help noticing something, yes you guessed it; GAPS. I think I am going to have to have therapy about these gaps but in the meantime look at the chart below, I have marked up the gap days - I think I have got them all - they have all been filled.

So although I go on about them, they do present an opportunity. If anyone disagrees with me or has other ideas please feel free to express them, after all I appreciate that you are not all into gaps.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

bracke

just got to nip out but will respond later. Sharescope only changed provider to include gap openings in May (before that close=open) so it's quite instructive. Do you consider gap closed when it gets back to the previous day's closing value or the previous day's high/low?

 

[bracke]

bracke

just got to nip out but will respond later. Sharescope only changed provider to include gap openings in May (before that close=open) so it's quite instructive. Do you consider gap closed when it gets back to the previous day's closing value or the previous day's high/low?

I consider the gap closed when it returns to the previous day's close but I am open to other interpretations if they can be shown to 'hold water'.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

bracke

You will know all this because you've kept telling us!!!!!

Since 10/5 there have been 28 opening gaps of 10 or more.
ALL but 2 have closed: 29/6 - 10 and 28/7 +23 (bit unfair to include, but it is 70 against you so far)
11 closed the opening gap the same day
8 within the next 2 days
The longest wait was 20 days (10/5 - 51) which went 84 against you before getting there
8 moved over 50 against you before getting there (when you might have been getting very nervous!!!)

In all that's 581 points worth of gaps that came good although, in practice, you wouldn't stand the large drawdowns (the yet to close 29/6 -10 points would have been 225 points against you at one stage!!)

So how do you play them? Intraday only, or futures only, or intraday + futures with different stops, or what? Do you take a "close gap" position immediately after opening or wait for some sort of signal or attractive price action ( I've tended just to keep "the ftse likes closing it's gaps" in mind, particularly when I'm wondering if it's time to exit)

Regards

jon

 

[bracke]

bracke

You will know all this because you've kept telling us!!!!!

Since 10/5 there have been 28 opening gaps of 10 or more.
ALL but 2 have closed: 29/6 - 10 and 28/7 +23 (bit unfair to include, but it is 70 against you so far)
11 closed the opening gap the same day
8 within the next 2 days
The longest wait was 20 days (10/5 - 51) which went 84 against you before getting there
8 moved over 50 against you before getting there (when you might have been getting very nervous!!!)

In all that's 581 points worth of gaps that came good although, in practice, you wouldn't stand the large drawdowns (the yet to close 29/6 -10 points would have been 225 points against you at one stage!!)

So how do you play them? Intraday only, or futures only, or intraday + futures with different stops, or what? Do you take a "close gap" position immediately after opening or wait for some sort of signal or attractive price action ( I've tended just to keep "the ftse likes closing it's gaps" in mind, particularly when I'm wondering if it's time to exit)

Regards

jon

Many thanks for your analysis barjon, it was good of you to spend the time on it.

The gap on 29/6 was not taken by me because it was at the top of the trading range too risky,abandoned babies and all that.

The gap on 28/7 was taken by me and I closed out on the same day for a loss of 1 point but I am still of the view that it will close by close of the Sept future.

10/5 gap took ftse down to a low of the trading range and provide an opportunity for a long trade for a pull back into the trading range. I don't have the full details but I see that the next day the ftse closed at 4455 a gain of 60 points which fails to tally with your -51, Am I missing something ?

I trade them by waiting for the index to continue in the gap direction untill it runs out of steam. I look at proximity to support/resistance levels and sma's. If possible I will close the trade the same day as I am wary of the effect that the US can have overnight. I use monthly futures to give me time for the trade to come good if I am unable to close on the same day.

I exit when the gap closure appears to be running out of steam, again using support/resistance and sma's. I do not wait to get every closure point, and will sometimes re-enter the trade if partial closure was cut short by close of trading

I avoid up gaps when ftse has gapped to a new high or to the top of the trading range, I take a slightly different view with down gaps judging the trade on the situation at the time.

I think that I have answered your questions, if I haven't please come back to me.

I am not an expert at trading gaps or any other form of trading but have formed my gap 'strategy' from reading this and other threads and gradually gaining an understanding. It is not 'cast in stone', I am more than willing to amend and adjust in the light of my own and other peoples experiences. It is a strategy that is working for me, but I am working at developing additional ones but it is a time taking difficult task.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

bracke

thanks - just off for some golf, back late pm. have some good trades

jon

 

[peterpr]

We appear to be at something of a witching hour (or day or two).

I've had a look back to 1997 and can't find another occassion when the index was hovering a point or two above and below BOTH 200 and 50DMA's. My guess is that they will provide considerable resistance after a 3%+ move up in just 3 days.

If we do break above them then expect another surge up.

And that from someone who is essentially bearish about the short/medium term outlook for equities and believes we have already seen the years high.