FTSE 350 Spreadbet Journal

[think-it-thru]

Hello there phoenix25140

Thank you for your post.

I use Sharescope for some research and ADVFN, Yahoo finance , bloomberg.com also.
Im spreadbetting so ill usually open a position for the far quarter.
I look at sectors, leading and lagging. Then I pick a stock whose price is trending higher in a leading stock for a long position, and hedge that position with a short on a weaker (based on price trend) in the same sector. and the opposite for lagging sectors. I dont look at much fundamental, however i am learning that it could be wise to do some, as my FDSA position had a share split recently whic left me in the red a little, and if i had looked at the news and improtant dates for that company i might have tightened my stop.

I guess the likes of Tesco which was a previously strong company could be value for growth.
Another member asked me about Firstgroup in a recent post.

My views on these two at the minute.
They are at lows and TSCO being near a previous 52 week low, so where is the bottom?
I dont know of course and im not about to try and call it.
Im spread betting so I would want to try and catch a trend in motion.
To hold the underlying, might be a place to park your money for a while, but there doesnt seem to be much love for either , price wise.
May be a buy stop above the current price between S/R levels with a stop loss at another S/R level would be good.
However I have no positions in either at the minute, and I am also 24% down, so I havent called Ferrari just yet.

 

[think-it-thru]

My JLT position got closed out at a loss today
P/L -26.5%

 

[think-it-thru]

My PZC short was closed out at a loss today.

 

[think-it-thru]

Got a dividend payment on my BOK position.
My IHG position which had that share split a while back didnt have a stop loss put on it when the slpit took place. It ran against me and i thought i will give it another 2% room then when it went against me I closed out today at a loss.
Current P/L -31.5%

 

[think-it-thru]

My TCY position was stopped out at a loss, not a full 2% loss as when it moved in my favour earlier i moved my stop to lessen the risk. when i got stopped out the position moved in the direction i had traded, maybe i should have left my stop where it was.
My RMV position also got stopped out at a loss.
P/L -34.3%

 

[think-it-thru]

My BVIC position got stopped out at a loss.

 

[romski]

bud hate to say it but you seem, to be taking a fair few losses....!!! may i suggest a slight tweaking to your investment strategy??

 

[think-it-thru]

bud hate to say it but you seem, to be taking a fair few losses....!!! may i suggest a slight tweaking to your investment strategy??

Hello there romski,
Thank you for your post.
I'm not sure what tweaking to do. With hindsight looking back on my closed out positions I would have been more particular with the entry on some, but with the limited knowledge that I have I would have still opened them, as in find a trending stock, set stop loss at a previous support/resistance level with just less than 2% of equity at risk , when the position gets to break even get ready to adjust my stop loss.
If you could help me out I would appreciate it.
Do you have any suggestions?

Regards
think-it-thru

 

[romski]

Hello there romski,
Thank you for your post.
I'm not sure what tweaking to do. With hindsight looking back on my closed out positions I would have been more particular with the entry on some, but with the limited knowledge that I have I would have still opened them, as in find a trending stock, set stop loss at a previous support/resistance level with just less than 2% of equity at risk , when the position gets to break even get ready to adjust my stop loss.
If you could help me out I would appreciate it.
Do you have any suggestions?

Regards
think-it-thru

Indicies will tend to be more volatile than stocks, although indices seem to obey TA more than equities!

how are you choosing your stocks/indices to trade. eg the FSTE 100 doesnt like being above 5900 towards the end of the month expect a short opportunity to arise if it is still lingering 5850 ish

 

[malaguti]

My PZC short was closed out at a loss today.

Have you tried trading with the trend? really, it helps significantly.
Dont want to appear smug, everything is easy to criticise in hindsight, and not knowing your entry criteria but the trend was quite clear for me at that point in time.
Give it a try, or if you are having trouble with the trend, I will happily give you some pointers
good luck

 

[leonarda]

think-it-thru, I know your pain, unfortunately I find these statements to be true:
1) Going with a stock where a trend has been confirmed generally more often than not means the trend will reverse.
2) Identifying the trend is not straight forward, as 1hr, 4hr, 1day, 1week, 1month time frames trends tend to all be different!
3) If you don't sell on greed then in letting a winner run you tend to give a large part of your profit back!
4) Moving stops to B/E is not usually a good idea unless you need it psychologically, as you typically entered a bet just above support, so why would you place your stop above support, you want it below it. Hence, of course the price is going to test your B/E stop(support), stop you out, and then go the way you were!

You need to be cleverer than the rest, (which is not easy!), try and follow some stocks/indices you know well and understand fundamentally, then try and predict support/resistance levels and where you think there will be demand/supply, then place your bets...!

 

[isatrader]

Hi think-it-thru, that's good advice from leonarda above. But from reading your posts over the last year or so I personally think that you need to simplify your trading even further and move away from trading individual stocks for the time being and instead just trade a single index with no leverage. Which I would recommend the S&P 500, as it's the more liquid and more evenly weighted than the FTSE 100 with 500 individual stocks across a large range of sectors. As the problem with individual stocks is that 70-80% of their daily moves are due to what's happening with the major indexes, so you need to get a handle on those imo, before you can hope to outperform them with individual stock picks.

So I think if you try that and are able to start making a consistent profit then you can start dipping you toes back into individual stocks again. Just a suggestion.

 

[Lodian1019]

Heya, just read your whole thread lol, hope your still in trading.
Lodi

 

[romski]

I think also, TRY to PREDICT the trend. This will allow you to gain much greater profits.

Got in this on 225

Chart | Interactive Investor

Had I been getting in now when the trend looks to be up, I would probably make a loss. Infact I will take profits soon on this as it seems to have stumbled.

another example of tring to predict will generally make you more profitable.

Chart | Interactive Investor

I bought at 150, should have sold at 170 which was my target, over xmas they went hunting stops out and took out a topup I did and ended up making £50 on the trade when if I had sold at 170ish it would have been a nice £250

 

[think-it-thru]

Happy New year Guys
I havent had chance to reply to anyone or indeed monitor the markets as closely as I would have liked, as ive been flat out here!
I seem to remember saying something like that before on one of my posts. I also seem to remember an Einstein quote about the definition of insanity was to carry on doing the same thing and expect a different result, mmm, food for thought.
My positions that are still open are rolled over for the next quarter.
Since my last post, and before the rollover my
IHG
RMV
positions have been closed out at losses. On two I had tightened my stops, so the losses were smaller, however they were losses.
Im not sure if these posts will be in the right order, with me not being exactly Mr. Current Affairs, but im off to reply to the other posts now.

 

[think-it-thru]

Indicies will tend to be more volatile than stocks, although indices seem to obey TA more than equities!

how are you choosing your stocks/indices to trade. eg the FSTE 100 doesnt like being above 5900 towards the end of the month expect a short opportunity to arise if it is still lingering 5850 ish

Hello there romski,
Thank you for your reply
Yes I think Indices are more volatile too, and with spread betting, even the FTSE 100 will expose too much of my equity I feel to have a stop that allows room.
However I dont know much about TA, what I think I know is only trend and S/R levels, so my stop would need a bit of room. However as I read more about bar formations etc. I might be able to get in on a move earlier than I have been doing. What TA do you use?

 

[think-it-thru]

Have you tried trading with the trend? really, it helps significantly.
Dont want to appear smug, everything is easy to criticise in hindsight, and not knowing your entry criteria but the trend was quite clear for me at that point in time.
Give it a try, or if you are having trouble with the trend, I will happily give you some pointers
good luck

Hello there malaguti,
Thank you for your reply.
Well I thought I was trading with the trend on PZC short as I opened it on 11/09/2012.
I opened it short because it was below its 200DMA and the bigger chart was going down.
However, now thats its not on the right edge anymore, I can see that wasnt a great trade because it was too far below its 200DMA, and reached previous support a few days later then rallied above the 200 and then dropped to similar support, then rallied through the 200 and kept going.
A good example of a double bottom i guess?
So it looks like I am having trouble spotting trends, and I will gladly accept your offer of some pointers please?
Thank you again.

 

[think-it-thru]

think-it-thru, I know your pain, unfortunately I find these statements to be true:
1) Going with a stock where a trend has been confirmed generally more often than not means the trend will reverse.
2) Identifying the trend is not straight forward, as 1hr, 4hr, 1day, 1week, 1month time frames trends tend to all be different!
3) If you don't sell on greed then in letting a winner run you tend to give a large part of your profit back!
4) Moving stops to B/E is not usually a good idea unless you need it psychologically, as you typically entered a bet just above support, so why would you place your stop above support, you want it below it. Hence, of course the price is going to test your B/E stop(support), stop you out, and then go the way you were!


You need to be cleverer than the rest, (which is not easy!), try and follow some stocks/indices you know well and understand fundamentally, then try and predict support/resistance levels and where you think there will be demand/supply, then place your bets...!

Hello there leonarda,
Thank you for your reply,
I have printed out your statements and put one copy in my journal and stuck another copy to my monitor to let it sink in a bit more.
On looking at them they sound obvious, but nevertheless that information wasnt in my head until your post.
If you have any more advice on TA FA etc or how you trade, I would love to hear it.
Thank you again.

 

[think-it-thru]

Hi think-it-thru, that's good advice from leonarda above. But from reading your posts over the last year or so I personally think that you need to simplify your trading even further and move away from trading individual stocks for the time being and instead just trade a single index with no leverage. Which I would recommend the S&P 500, as it's the more liquid and more evenly weighted than the FTSE 100 with 500 individual stocks across a large range of sectors. As the problem with individual stocks is that 70-80% of their daily moves are due to what's happening with the major indexes, so you need to get a handle on those imo, before you can hope to outperform them with individual stock picks.

So I think if you try that and are able to start making a consistent profit then you can start dipping you toes back into individual stocks again. Just a suggestion.

Hello there isatrader
Thank you for your reply
I have never even considered the S&P 500, but I will take a look.
Its funny since you mentioned it, its been in my head and then I came accross an Oscar Carboni who seem to be a a really energetic character who trades.
Im assuming by your name you perhaps trade from ISAs, Ive just been talking to my accountant about that today, so Im getting some funds ready, but wont be trading them until I can make profit with this fund first.
In fact while just writing this post I have looked at the S&P 500, and it seems more suited to my equity position than the FTSE100 and the spread is small.
Thank you for drawing my attention to it. Do you trade that index?
Thank you again.

 

[think-it-thru]

Heya, just read your whole thread lol, hope your still in trading.
Lodi

Hello there Lodi
Thank you for your reply and thank you for reading the thread.
Having read other threads here and there, I am lucky really because the people on here dont waste time, they are very generous with their knowledge in a helpful way.
Anyway yes Im still in trading, I dont give up.
How do you trade ?