FTSE 100 - May

[bracke]

Hooya

Chance of me reaching the bonsai standard very remote. Will stick with improving my understanding of the chart with sma and support / resistance, if I can master those I'm in with a reasonable chance. Over time the wave business may seep into the inner recess of my grey matter

Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

Chance of me reaching the bonsai standard very remote...not if you stick at it as long as he has

 

[mully]

Bracke,

see below

 

[bonsai]

hooya
I meant to ask -why did they close your thread on TT ?
because it was so popular ?

 

[mully]

KISS Principle

The KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) Principle is self-descriptive and recognizes two things:
1. People (including product and service users) generally want things that are simple, meaning easy to learn and use.

2. A company that makes products or furnishes services may find simplicity an advantage for the company as well, since it tends to shorten time and reduce cost. (Where the company is trying to use the principle on behalf of users, however, design time may take longer and cost more, but the net effect will be beneficial since easy-to-learn-and-use products and services tend to be cheaper to produce and service in the long run.)

The New Hacker's Dictionary, edited by Eric Raymond, says the the KISS Principle is sometimes cited on a development project to fend off "creeping featurism."

The somewhat related idea of Ockham's razor is about always looking for the simplest explanation.

 

[bracke]

bonsai

Its not just the reading, its the remembering and the interpretation; and the latter needs experience.

Hooya

Not certain i've got that long!

Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

Basically yes. Admin over there was worried that no one was posting on the us thread or fx thread or whatever . I tried to point out that having specific individual threads takes a decent number of posters. Plus also the fact that on TT they are very strict on what you can post, for example if I post a UKX chart on the fx thread it will be moved to the FTSE thread , it means there is no fluidity to the threads etc. But hey its his BB...and I have enough problems with posting on two threads as it is

 

[mully]

Bonsai,

I notice you have a wicked sense of humour at times

 

[bracke]

mully

I lke KISS, sounds like it's just up my street.

Would query that manufacturers and service providers follow it. Look at the complexity of cars, washing machines etc. I think the term that they would use is ' adding value ' .

Regards

bracke

 

[bonsai]

Well, one and all, its a year and a day since I joined this board and my lease has expired.

Its been a lot of fun and I have enjoyed most of it , but like the Owl and the Pussy Cat ,its time to move on.

The latest fiasco with the coding really did it for me.

So I am in the process of closing up shop .

Its been great getting to know many of you and I wish you all success in the future.

I dont really have any parting words of wisdom that I havent shared with you somewhere along the way already.

Except perhaps to repeat -"If you dont know who you are, the stockmarket is an expensive place to learn " -

Mully, all the best with the thread. - its been a great start.

And , of course, its nice to finish on what seems to be a positive move in the market.
But never ever take it for granted.

 

[Hooya]

Farewell fireworks ( and a gold star for anyone who can guess the location)

 

[bracke]

bonsai

Very sorry to see you go. Thank you for all you assistance.

I hope that our paths cross again in the future.

Regards

bracke

 

[mully]

Bracke:

Can I post something to put you out of your misery.

It is from Tony Plummer's book Forecasting Financial Markets and a chapter on EW.
He has a section entitled:

The problems with the Elliott Wave Principle

He lists a number of reasons:

1) "There has previously been no satisfactory explanation of the 5-3 formation."

2) "the integrity of the central theorem of a 5-3 pattern for each bull/bear cycle is only maintained by the use of the concepts of failures and irregular corrections."

3) "the complexity of the Elliott Wave (particularly insofar as extensions and complex corrections are concerned) means that it is often impossible to establish a unique future out-turn for market prices: it is possible to isolate alternatives (and therefore probabilities)..."

4) "the principle is more difficult to apply to some markets than to others" Commodity markets, Cross rates exchange markets.


So Bracke you are not alone. However, it is worth being aware of the basics so that when a clear 5 wave pattern appears you will be alert to the fact that all EW watchers will be wanting to fade it. That may present you with a trade.

Otherwise IMHO stick to simpler analysis. Then there is less to be confused about. Remember markets have no knowledge of EW. It is only us who are trying to complicate things. The eye is very good at tricking the mind into seeing anything and everything. Remember as a child seeing shapes in the sky.

 

[Hooya]

looks like FTSE got a little bit more to go tomorrow

 

[bracke]

mully

Thank you for that!

Certainly not KISS

As you say, keep it simple but be aware.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Hooya

Is your comment based on

1 ftse closed holding above daily average.

2 dow has gone into positive territory.


Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

the move just doesnt look finished..the pattern targets a slightly higher price but remember nothing has to happen

 

[KJH]

the move just doesnt look finished..the pattern targets a slightly higher price but remember nothing has to happen

Mid point projection of the consoilidation...4485 ish ?
Also see attached chart for another point of view...
Comments ....
Kjh

 

[KJH]

I've noted a little discussion on Fib price retracements, projection, extensions.

Attached is a daily of the FTSE with Fib time projections and extensions from a significant high for your comments and thoughts....

The start point ( marked with blue arrow), is in my opinion, significant for 2 reasons.
1. It, Jan 6, was the start of this sideways pattern
2. Friday 23rd April 04 high is 38.2% in time from the Mar 12/03 Low to Jan 6/04 high

Thoughts / comments ?...
kjh
( let me know if you don't want this sort of stuff around here please...)

 

[mully]

As some of you know, I find the FTSE100 can be confusing at times, because of the influence of a very few heavyweights. At the moment both BP and Shell (strong oil price) are acting as counterweights.

However, IMHO, I find the FTSE250 a cleaner index for spotting trends. I include both charts together for comparison.

The FTSE250 paints a weaker position and the decline doesn't look complete.

This says nothing about the next few hours, but does suggest that upside may be limited.

But remember "All patterns on the market are meaningless-unless confirmed" by subsequent price action.