FTSE 100 - May

whilsts its a bit slow can someone summarise an options play if I wanted to go long here for say 5-10 days. What sort or risk reward could you expected to get out of them.

I am just starting to read about them abit more after avoiding them for as long as possible. :)
 
Hooya said:
"FTSE start is 3pm currently, 4pm in your winter"
better time frame than Sydney I guess and you can go down the beach during the morning. Come home trade Sounds great to me . So cmc are out in Aus..interesting. I use ADVFN charts and cmc spreadbetting to trade.
Sydney would suck (does suck ?)
Great to live there if you want to trade the ASX SFE but lousy for me during there daylight saving=3hrs diff. I don't function too well at 5-6 am to catch up with how the US has screwed us...
Water skiing in the morning till 12-- time to get home and do a little catch up then into it at 3 !!
CMC have just slapped some fees on us.
$10 AUD /per side plus 0.01% on stocks ( 10% margin accounts) on orders under 10K
plus exchange / data fees
It has really taken off big time and hurting some of the traditional houses...even with the fees
I'll have a look at advfn...thanks
kj
 
advfn charts are a bit dodgy imo as they are browser based but nice and simple to use.
 
FTSE100 continues to play around the now flattening 1 day SMA.
 

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hooya
on options

it all depends on your risk profile
out of the money are cheapest but you need a crystal ball
at the moment 4600 calls should be cheap

the safer play is in the money or even on the money

you are always fighting the clock
 
Vast majority of option buyers lose, because as Bonsai said, the time element of the premium eats away at you.

Now if you have perfect timing......
 
Hooya said:
whilsts its a bit slow can someone summarise an options play if I wanted to go long here for say 5-10 days. What sort or risk reward could you expected to get out of them.

I am just starting to read about them abit more after avoiding them for as long as possible. :)
I'm certainly no expert and you need some good option analysis software to work out all the different scenarios.
For every expected market move there is a different strategy and the strategy is market dependant. I.e. Directional and position bias...
I believe you have to have a good handle on technical analysis to use simple options strategies ( buy a call / buy a put) or a very good understanding of option strategies ( to get yourself out of trouble) if your directional timing isn't all that great....
Some good titles to learn more about options: Caplan, The new options advantage. Bittman, Trading Index options. Fontanills, The option course ( dont' waste your dough on the workbooks).
I find www.superbookdeals.com to be the cheapest around. Also, traderslibrary.com ( actaully I think they are owned by the same mob) have some great specials twice a year and that is when I do my buying as they have 1/2 price shipping also.

But I'd be looking at at the money or in the money June or Sept calls. Having said that I loath buying calls due to the drop in Volatility you experience when the market rallies or goes sideways.
Buying Puts ( such as last week-- hah hah) would have been great . 1. they picked up nicely due the move we've had but more importantly the 2. Volatility expansion. FTSE implied Vol went from 13% Friday close to 17.21% yesterdays close basis May Expiration.
Yesterday I bought June OTM calls. I 'll use them as a hedge to write against if and when this market moves up to my overhead resitance points outlined earlier today.
The trading plan I'm working on is buying futures and using ATM Puts as my stoploss/hedge. in a different expiration month. If it goes pear shaped I can use the extra time I've bought to write against. -- THoughts / comments ??

KJH
ps. I'm not usually this long winded !!!! just watching this grass grow (ftse) is driving me mad...
 
Re: Evil Knievil-- Simon Cawkwell
Any one know this chap?
An email I recieved today.."..Legendary bear raider Evil Knievil is known for his forensic reading of company accounts. He reveals his thoughts exclusively in his notorious EvilCast only on website t1ps.com...."
kjh
 
hooya
remember my gradient lines ?
if, if you get the direction right, then the speed of the move becomes important
if it falls below 180 usually time to get out

obviously, you need to chart the option prices as well as the underlying
 
lookslike we may have had my test of the fib?

now if it will just curl upwards ....................
 
Bonsai.
I am using a 5 min's chart with sma's that I selected with your help and am trying to decide which macd values to use. Is it more accurate to use the same value macd as the sma instead of the commonly used 13 /26 that I have been using on all time frames.
Am interested to see your view on this.
lol
 
what confuses me is why have puts and calls as you can sell/buy both but guess there will be explanations in the books I will have to read. Just looking on delayed prices on Liffe; an offer on June 4525 calls is 38 but 4425 is 80 odd you would rather buy the 4425 strike ??? and I assume the closer it gets to exercising date and further away from the strike price(in the money) the more expensive the options become?

oops FTSE on the move I'll stop waffling :)

thanks Bonsai also.
 
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"accurate" is not the right approach, fluke

the question really is what are you going to use as a signal ?

if you want to trade say twice a day, then you need an macd that will on average give you 2 signals (at least) per day.

and then work out what configuration fills the bill

using the same sma on your chart may or may not be the right thing to do as they will be telling you the same things ?

its largely a question of trial and error until you have found something in which you can have confidence.

confidence in a signal which suits your personality is the goal.
 
I thought I would post a picture of the overhead resistance
around the 4425 level (black horizontal line)
 

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Re: an offer on June 4525 calls is 38 but 4425 is 80 odd you would rather buy the 4425
strike ???
YES, and it is more expensive cause it is 100 points closer or should I say the 4525 is cheaper because it is 100 points further away

and I assume the closer it gets to exercising date and further away from the strike price the more expensive the options become?
The closer you get to expiry the cheaper it becomes ( time decay) however, any strike that is not in the money is worthless at expiry.

The books are good....For a real detailed math ( not my style and puts me to sleep) try Natenberg, Option volatility and pricing.
Caplan is probably the best intro book....

Higher low in place and being tested...
kjh
 
hooya

one of my books on options is "how to make money in Stock Options" by Norman Saint-Peter.

you will need a good grounding in the mathematics and probabilities of the game.
the book also deals with more strategies than than you will ever need.
 
Bonsai.
Thaks,that does help,I am dealing once or twice a week not every day.
 
KJH,

Surely the higher low is not confirmed until we take out the high of 4427 early this morning.
 
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