From loss to loss.... now time for profit?

[dgtrading]

Update

so it may appear like I may have given up......however I have not.

Over the past few weeks I have spiralled through further damage to my account from errors such as tight stop losses and entering trends near the end.

I am gaining knowledge every week on what works and what does not work trading the higher time frames, and feel like I am edging closer and closer towards success.

 

[dgtrading]

short Oil 18/8/2015

- price crashed through the small inside bar formation forming a new lower low
- stop loss above the previous high at 43.443 at trend line resistance

It may seem like I am entering the trend late, however on the weekly chart price has broken a key level and we can see potentially more aggressive selling.

The bearish pin bar formed the week before also supports a large selloff

 

[dgtrading]

Buy EUR/JPY 18/8/2015

earlier in the week price has surged upwards so I looked to enter on the pullback.

- inside bar formation at key level and at 10 day EMA
- entered at break of the mother candle
- moving averages crossed to upside

- stop loss below the low of the pullback
- take profit at key resistance at 140.461

friday's bullish hammer bar could reinforce a large surge upwards and a break through resistance however I will stick to my take profit plan.

 

[dgtrading]

Buy GBP/CAD weekly inside bar breakout

plan to enter this trade when the market opens tonight (Sunday 23rd August)

price has been a little choppy with this pair and I've had some frustrating incidents with trading this pair in the past however I have learnt from my mistakes (too tight stop loss and exiting out of fear).

I am very bullish on this pair.

- price has broken high of mother bar of inside bar formation
- moving averages crossed to upside on daily chart
- deep stop loss below low of mother bar at 2.01849

plan to hold this trade as long as this bull trend holds whilst trailing my stop on dips that have breached the 10 day EMA.

**** debated with myself as to place my stop loss below the very recent inside bar formation breakout on the daily chart which is tighter so I can take a larger position. However consistency is my greatest concern. we will see if this was the correct decision or not *****

 

[dgtrading]

sell ADS bearish pin bar

plan to enter this trade on the market open tomorrow morning


- daily bearish pin bar rejecting key support level
- moving averages crossed to downside

on the weekly chart we can see price testing the key level of 67, bouncing up again, then forming a lower high of 75 before crashing down and through 67 and closing there.

very bearish

- stop loss above high of pin bar
- take profit at 60

 

[dgtrading]

EUR/JPY stopped out

stopped out yesterday (monday) on this trade for a loss

Yen proved too strong in that session.

A potential hammer bar formed that day however it was not high enough quality for my liking

 

[dgtrading]

GBP/USD long bullish engulfing

monday closed as a strong bullish engulfing candle as a burst out of resistance.

long with a stop loss below the low of the engulfing candle.

take profit at the opposite end of the trend range (approx 1.6020

 

[dgtrading]

short Platinum 25/8/15

healthy downtrend on weekly chart

on the daily chart a close below the pin bar higher low has resulted in a lower low and a possible turning point to the downside. also a strong close below the moving averages.

stop loss above the previous high at 1039.2

 

[dgtrading]

stopped out of GBP/USD

markets are wild!

 

[dgtrading]

closing GBP/CAD

you might think I'm a wimp for changing my viewpoint on trades..... however it has saved me multiple times in the past.

closing this trade because I am finding it is not a top draw trade, after studying charts I find the best trades with the highest Risk/Reward are the turning points in markets. For example the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend on the daily chart that would appear to look like a higher low on the weekly chart.

the longer trends go and the more frequently it touches the trend line, the higher the chance that the trend will end.

sure the currency could rocket for a few more weeks however I will not be phased as I am aware the probabilities are not in my favour entering this late in the trend.

***in regards to the oil trade, this also is not a turning point in the market, however i entered very shortly after the breach of key support therefore I am confident there is the potential for a lot of downside before a turnaround***

 

[dgtrading]

sell EUR/JPY double top

- double top on daily time frame
- close below low of hammer bar
- strong close below trend line and moving averages
- possible lower high on weekly time frame

 

[malaguti]

after studying charts I find the best trades with the highest Risk/Reward are the turning points in markets. For example the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend on the daily chart that would appear to look like a higher low on the weekly chart.

highest risk/reward perhaps but are they producing the goods? what's your success rate with this method. Its just me of course, but I do think you could be entering too early and thereby stopped out too often rather than choosing a more established down or uptrend..we can never know how far along a trend we might be but after 2 or 3 consistent higher highs etc we're past the possible pullback (a-b-c in elliot wave) and still quite early in a new trend

not trying to derail this, I think its a great thread, i wonder about your results though and I wonder where they could be better if at all, that's all

 

[dgtrading]

yes I understand where you are coming from and waiting for a trend to be underway is a consistent methodology.

However I also believe trend changes can be sharp and explosive. Getting in early means there is more potential for the trade and more room to trail the stop and lock in profits.

I've tagged an example of criticism of my recent GBP/CAD trade, which I a decided to close before the sharp drop (which could actually continue going up but it's now against my trading plan).

the point at 'BUY HERE' is a transition from a down trend to an up trend on the daily chart, which is also a higher low in the weekly trend. Of course hindsight is hindsight however this is my study of the best trades and I believe entering the trade here would have been enormously more profitable

highest risk/reward perhaps but are they producing the goods? what's your success rate with this method. Its just me of course, but I do think you could be entering too early and thereby stopped out too often rather than choosing a more established down or uptrend..we can never know how far along a trend we might be but after 2 or 3 consistent higher highs etc we're past the possible pullback (a-b-c in elliot wave) and still quite early in a new trend

not trying to derail this, I think its a great thread, i wonder about your results though and I wonder where they could be better if at all, that's all

 

[dgtrading]

closed all open trades (oil, platinum, EUR/JPY)

not going to lie my trading has been an absolute mess this week and my account has taken a battering. However I am always learning from my mistakes and I know I am getting closer and closer to finding my strategy.

Oil

I feel like I entered this trade too late, looking back I see the optimal entry would have been at the start of the downtrend after the break through support (a clear strong double top on the weekly chart). These are the kind of trades I will now wait for. However this trade could have been a small success if i had taken profit when it was in profit. Late entries in trends can still be profitable if profit targets are conservative. I have learnt. However they are not optimal.

Platinum

I feel like my entry was very weak on this trade, yes price managed to close below the previous swing low however it struggled to close below the low of the candle before it (977.2) before forming an inside bar then explosive move upwards. lesson learnt; wait for a strong close.

EUR/JPY

closed this trade because I felt like I was forcing it, I plan on waiting for a clearer bend in the trend before going short. The last few weeks on the weekly chart are looking slightly bullish which puts me off going short. However the bigger picture on the weekly chart could be a nice head and shoulders pattern if we get a break below 133.267 which could lead to a very large selloff.

To wrap this up for anyone who actually read all of it, the key lessons I learnt this week are:

1) stop entering trends late, I am aware some trends can last a long time but getting in at the start will always be the better trade
2) wait for a clear setup to form with a strong close before making a trade
3) stop forcing trades! wait for obvious trades to appear

 

[dgtrading]

short GBP/CAD

**only open trade**

- price has broken through the key trend line
- strong bearish engulfing candle closing to form a new lower low
- closed below moving averages
- entered on the retrace

- stop loss above high of bearish engulfing candle
- take profit at previous weekly high

 

[dgtrading]

short EUR/USD daily trend change

- lower high
- closed below trend line and previous low to form new lower low
- closed below moving averages
- short supported by large false break hammer signal on the weekly chart

- take profit at lower end of range 1.08185
- stop loss above previous high at 1.13359

 

[dgtrading]

4hr short GBP/JPY

been studying trend changes on the 4hr chart and I've noticed they can give consistent returns of multiple risk in a relatively short period of time.

took this short on a 4hr break of the trend line and close at 183.04. with a stop loss above the previous high at 184 and a conservative take profit at 180.94.

took less than a day to close with a result of twice my risk

 

[dgtrading]

4hr short Platinum

been watching Platinum all week for a break to the downside. Today we got a 4hr close below the trend line and below support at 995.5 and now support down at 971.2 is exposed.

this selloff shows more clearly on the daily chart.


- short with a stop loss above 1023.8
- take profit at support down at 971.2

 

[dgtrading]

short Oil 4hr head + shoulders

- lower high on daily chart
- lower high on weekly chart

- head and shoulders pattern break on 4hr chart
- 4hr bearish hammer bar
- stop loss above high of hammer bar
- take profit at support down at 43.615

 

[dgtrading]

short EUR/JPY weekly head + shoulders

- strong bearish close from the head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart to form a lower low
- lots of room to the downside
- stop loss above previous high