Fridays ( 03/10/2003 ) job data

kevinmcm

Active member
220 2
Here are some points related to the jobs data which caused the surge on Friday. These are comments were made by http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

1. I have looked over the Jobs report, 33,000 of the jobs are temp hires, most of the remainder are construction jobs. There remains a lot of negative in the report. More time is going to be required to actually turn the jobs creation around.

2. another negative in todays jobs report is the drop in average hourly earnings. Given the low inflation and weak bargaining power on the part of workers seeking employment, it should not be a surprise. However, this is the first time in 14 years that hourly earnings have actually fallen. If the trend continues, it holds implications for consumer spending going forward

3. another negative in the jobs report is the fact health Insurance is skyrocketing as employers are reluctant to hire and instead use Temps. With wages falling and no benefits workers will either have no insurance or must pay for it out of pocket. That will kill consumer spending.

4. Bloomberg has a good report on the Jobs. Interesting is the fact the Govt will report in Feb 2004 they have underestimated the jobs lost by 145,000 jobs http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=arhSwDrYdJhk&refer=home

5. One last observation of the jobs and leading indicators economic reports today. Manuf lost 29,000 jobs, manuf still weak, 33,000 temp hires, some construction and remainder service jobs. "would you like to super size that"


Not quite the wonderful news it was made out to be.

Kevin.
 

2468steve

Experienced member
1,076 39
Kevin,
that doesn't suprise me at all.You cannot really trust any of the headline numbers that come out,often manipulated to look good.You really have to delve deeper and dissect them to get the true picture.....unfortunately you never get the time when the market's flying up like Fri!!

cheers
 

rglenn

Well-known member
379 4
Great analysis Kevin

It is quite clear that people heard the word good news and without further ado starting pressing the buy button and placing buy trades and up up and away went the markets regardless of the detailed analysis.

This is why when trading the markets you have to take things one day at a time as you can get seriously burnt if you are on the wrong side of a big move.

Thankfully I was on the right side of the move on Friday and did not suffer too much which made up for the big fall we had a week ago- because I was on the wrong side of that move.
 

tradesmart

Experienced member
1,286 22
Good comment Kevin,

There has been such paranoia about the so called "jobless recovery" in the US, that there was bound to be a massive over reaction to any hint of new jobs being created.

I note that the US futures were markedly up before the announcement, despite most economists predicting negative numbers - more evidence of 'insider dealing' and corruption on Wall Street?

I suspect that the 'wonder rallies' of the last week may be sold off quite sharply now - well we've got to have a bit of a pullback to leave some headroom for this years "Santa Claus" rally haven't we?

Regards, TradeSmart
 
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