VielGeld
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Time for a bit of fun philosophizing. I've been thinking about this for a couple weeks now.
Atoms make molecules, which make cells, which make living, sentient beings. It could be said that the relationship between sentience and the hardware underlying it (humans/neurons and A.I./circuits) is basically one of a feedback loop (the circuits/neurons feed the sentience, which wonders about the source, etc.).
I saw an article a couple weeks ago mentioning that psychology is basically about trends and tendencies since it's a social science (as opposed to a hard science). In psychology, one looks for probabilities of behaviours. Maybe X event triggered Y symptom within the victim, and must then be put through Z sequence to be treated. It's not that linear, but it's generally how psychologists work.
Sound familiar?
This got me thinking. If people's behaviours are based on psychological factors, then one can readily ask the following question: "does the market feel and/or does it reason?"
Pushing this question further, we can ask ourselves: "does the market possess free will?"
In effect, the "random" price movement exhibited by the market could easily be attributed to a free-thinking entity. If one thinks of the market as an entity with morals, reluctances, and pathologies similar to a human being, then one can also conclude that these are reflected in price movements.
Is it then possible that the "Holy Grail" of price prediction is based not on any so-called indicator, but rather simply on a basic, psychological understanding of Mr. Market? Price really can go anywhere, based on the free-will concept, but, at the same time, it won't, because humans are delimited by their own constitution.
The market is eminently predictable. You need simply regard price as a movement of will, of emotion and psychology. Of reluctance and of hope. Watch its direction, watch where it is reluctant to pierce through. Understand the market, and you are as God himself for you control the very nourishment of the planet.
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When the Singularity is to happen, my very first thought is that the robots would wish to control the market. What other entity so very comprises the very essence of human endeavour as the market does? If the market's purpose is to be an efficient allocator of resources, then controlling this source is to control humanity. The market is the brain of our society. It decides where resources go, and in which quantity. Perhaps it overshoots itself sometimes when some elements of its constitution think it in their benefit to do so. But overall, it only wishes the betterment of mankind because its composition is mankind itself.
Forget the politicians, the marketers of our society. They only wish they could control the mass underlying hardware that makes up the planet. While individual neurons are imperfect in their execution, the whole manages a transcendence of will only achievable by mass computation on the level that humans have managed today. I would be eminently surprised that we would not create a singular entity in its own will through either the circuit-board or the market since that is the way of thing.
Atoms-molecules-cells-biological beings-sentience ... That is the way of things. What comes next? A.I. or the market creating its own interminable feedback loop bringing about a higher level of being? It's a race against time.
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What I mean to say is... To understand the market one should understand not necessarily oneself, but rather the sublimation of oneself into the mass of similar entities. This "market" entity is itself composed of a higher ideal, a "free will" if you will. Price can indeed go anywhere it wants because free will dictates such movement. However, it won't because the individual neurons (buyers and sellers) won't allow it, or can only allow it to go as far as they think it within its possibility to go.
Anyway, discuss. I'm hella drunk, lol, if that weren't apparent. It's been on my mind for a good while now, though. I think it's worth discussing.
Atoms make molecules, which make cells, which make living, sentient beings. It could be said that the relationship between sentience and the hardware underlying it (humans/neurons and A.I./circuits) is basically one of a feedback loop (the circuits/neurons feed the sentience, which wonders about the source, etc.).
I saw an article a couple weeks ago mentioning that psychology is basically about trends and tendencies since it's a social science (as opposed to a hard science). In psychology, one looks for probabilities of behaviours. Maybe X event triggered Y symptom within the victim, and must then be put through Z sequence to be treated. It's not that linear, but it's generally how psychologists work.
Sound familiar?
This got me thinking. If people's behaviours are based on psychological factors, then one can readily ask the following question: "does the market feel and/or does it reason?"
Pushing this question further, we can ask ourselves: "does the market possess free will?"
In effect, the "random" price movement exhibited by the market could easily be attributed to a free-thinking entity. If one thinks of the market as an entity with morals, reluctances, and pathologies similar to a human being, then one can also conclude that these are reflected in price movements.
Is it then possible that the "Holy Grail" of price prediction is based not on any so-called indicator, but rather simply on a basic, psychological understanding of Mr. Market? Price really can go anywhere, based on the free-will concept, but, at the same time, it won't, because humans are delimited by their own constitution.
The market is eminently predictable. You need simply regard price as a movement of will, of emotion and psychology. Of reluctance and of hope. Watch its direction, watch where it is reluctant to pierce through. Understand the market, and you are as God himself for you control the very nourishment of the planet.
------
When the Singularity is to happen, my very first thought is that the robots would wish to control the market. What other entity so very comprises the very essence of human endeavour as the market does? If the market's purpose is to be an efficient allocator of resources, then controlling this source is to control humanity. The market is the brain of our society. It decides where resources go, and in which quantity. Perhaps it overshoots itself sometimes when some elements of its constitution think it in their benefit to do so. But overall, it only wishes the betterment of mankind because its composition is mankind itself.
Forget the politicians, the marketers of our society. They only wish they could control the mass underlying hardware that makes up the planet. While individual neurons are imperfect in their execution, the whole manages a transcendence of will only achievable by mass computation on the level that humans have managed today. I would be eminently surprised that we would not create a singular entity in its own will through either the circuit-board or the market since that is the way of thing.
Atoms-molecules-cells-biological beings-sentience ... That is the way of things. What comes next? A.I. or the market creating its own interminable feedback loop bringing about a higher level of being? It's a race against time.
-----
What I mean to say is... To understand the market one should understand not necessarily oneself, but rather the sublimation of oneself into the mass of similar entities. This "market" entity is itself composed of a higher ideal, a "free will" if you will. Price can indeed go anywhere it wants because free will dictates such movement. However, it won't because the individual neurons (buyers and sellers) won't allow it, or can only allow it to go as far as they think it within its possibility to go.
Anyway, discuss. I'm hella drunk, lol, if that weren't apparent. It's been on my mind for a good while now, though. I think it's worth discussing.
