Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday March 21 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 20 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 1475K 1440K 1408K
Mar 20 08:30 Building Permits Feb 1530K 1560K 1571K
Mar 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/16 NA NA 1180K
Mar 21 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Mar 22 08:30 Initial Claims 03/17 320K 325K 318K
Mar 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb -0.6% -0.3% 0.1%
Mar 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb 6.30M 6.35M 6.46M

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: 5 days holding in an 80 pip range means that the euro is overdue for a significant move. It is easy to pick a direction and gamble on being right, but it is probably a 50/50 call right now. We will either rush higher towards 1.3500 or drop back to better support around 1.3200. Wait for a G7 set up near 1.3240 or even lower at 1.3180 before buying, or try small counter-trend trades higher up on signs of topping against 1.3500/20 .

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3180

"Set and forget" entry: Buy 1.3250, stop 1.3230, target 1.3370. Re-buy 1.3190, stop 1.3160, target 1.3370

Counter-trend opportunities: Maybe try tiny shorts on signs of topping at 1.3500. Use tight trailing stop loss.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday March 22 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 20 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 1475K 1440K 1408K
Mar 20 08:30 Building Permits Feb 1530K 1560K 1571K
Mar 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/16 NA NA 1180K
Mar 21 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Mar 22 08:30 Initial Claims 03/17 320K 325K 318K
Mar 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb -0.6% -0.3% 0.1%
Mar 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb 6.30M 6.35M 6.46M

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Up to 1.3400 and the highest price since early 2005, with lots of fanfare and chatter. At the same time, the Aussie dollar reached above 0.8000 and the highest level in 10 years against the dollar. This is all very exciting, but remember that these are historically extreme levels and they bring their own danger with them - uncertainty, large swings and perhaps even dramatic collapses. Nevertheless, the euro remains bullish and despite the possibility of a strong retracement from 1.3400, dips are opportunities to buy cautiously. Today, try very small (counter-trend) shorts around 1.3400, stops above 1.3425, or wait for dips to 1.3280/50 to buy - stops below 1.3230.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3280

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3280, stop 1.3230, target 1.3400.

Counter-trend opportunities: Maybe try tiny shorts at 1.3400, stop 1.3430, target 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Sceince.com Daily Currency report for Friday March 23 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 20 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 1475K 1440K 1408K
Mar 20 08:30 Building Permits Feb 1530K 1560K 1571K
Mar 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/16 NA NA 1180K
Mar 21 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Mar 22 08:30 Initial Claims 03/17 320K 325K 318K
Mar 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb -0.6% -0.3% 0.1%
Mar 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb 6.30M 6.35M 6.46M

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We have retraced 100 points from yesterday's highs to 1.3300 - nothing to be too concerned about and well within normal corrective price action. Remembering that we are more likely to see sudden price swings the closer we get to 1.3500/1.3600 (historically extreme levels) we will allow for more of the same today. Dips "should" try to hold above 1.3280, but the danger of a slip to 1.3250 or 1.3200 cannot be ruled out. Try buying at 1.3280/1.3300, stops below 1.3250, but be prepared to re-buy at 1.3240, stops below 1.3200. Have a fantastic weekend!

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3280, 1.3250, 1.3200

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3280, stop 1.3230, target 1.3400. Re-buy 1.3210, stop 1.3170.

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday March 26 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 26 10:00 New Home Sales Feb 1000K 995K 937K
Mar 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 108.5 109.0 112.5
Mar 28 08:30 Durable Orders Feb 3.0% 3.0% -7.8%
Mar 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/23 NA NA 3924K
Mar 29 08:30 Initial Claims 03/24 320K NA 316K
Mar 29 08:30 GDP-Final Q4 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Mar 29 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q4 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Mar 29 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Feb 32 31 32
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Income Feb 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Spending Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 49.5 49.5 47.9
Mar 30 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -0.3% -0.6% -0.8%
Mar 30 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Mar 88.8 88.8 88.8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3420

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: A weekly "spike high" and a break below that candle today has placed a bearish emphasis on the euro, which could take the price substantially lower. Support comes in all the way between 1.3200 and 1.2900, and it is quite possible that we are heading to the lower part of that range. Because we are at historically very high levels and because we have seen relatively small moves for the past few weeks, the danger of a sudden slide is growing. Today, sell rallies to 1.3320/40 stops above 1.3350, or try small counter trend buys around 1.3250 with tight trailing stops.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3330, 1.3420

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3250, stop 1.3230, target 1.33.20. SELL 1.3320, stop 1.3365, target 1.3250

Counter-trend opportunities: N/A

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Tuesday March 27 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 26 10:00 New Home Sales Feb 1000K 995K 937K
Mar 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 108.5 109.0 112.5
Mar 28 08:30 Durable Orders Feb 3.0% 3.0% -7.8%
Mar 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/23 NA NA 3924K
Mar 29 08:30 Initial Claims 03/24 320K NA 316K
Mar 29 08:30 GDP-Final Q4 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Mar 29 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q4 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Mar 29 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Feb 32 31 32
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Income Feb 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Spending Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 49.5 49.5 47.9
Mar 30 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -0.3% -0.6% -0.8%
Mar 30 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Mar 88.8 88.8 88.8

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3420

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Up to 1.3340 as expected as people realise that the US housing numbers are not improving at all and that it might not be possible to hold/raise rates. Now things begin to get tricky as short term bullish momentum collides with weekly hesitation at historically extreme levels. Try small shorts at 1.3330, stops above 1.3360, targeting 1.3250. Exit here and watch for signs of basing again. Trading is not going to be easy as we approach month end, so trade with caution and consider standing aside if you can.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3330, 1.3420

"Set and forget" entry: SELL 1.3330, stop 1.3360, target 1.3250.

Counter-trend opportunities: N/A

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday March 28 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 26 10:00 New Home Sales Feb 1000K 995K 937K
Mar 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 108.5 109.0 112.5
Mar 28 08:30 Durable Orders Feb 3.0% 3.0% -7.8%
Mar 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/23 NA NA 3924K
Mar 29 08:30 Initial Claims 03/24 320K NA 316K
Mar 29 08:30 GDP-Final Q4 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Mar 29 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q4 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Mar 29 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Feb 32 31 32
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Income Feb 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Spending Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 49.5 49.5 47.9
Mar 30 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -0.3% -0.6% -0.8%
Mar 30 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Mar 88.8 88.8 88.8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3420

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: The euro has edged up slightly to 1.3360 after a very quiet day except in the cross rate markets. Although dollar weakness appears to be re-asserting itself against the Asian currencies, this is not the case in the majors. Our analysis therefore remains unchanged again: Now things begin to get tricky as short term bullish momentum collides with weekly hesitation at historically extreme levels. Try small shorts at 1.3350, stops above 1.3380, targeting 1.3250. Exit here and watch for signs of basing again. Trading is not going to be easy as we approach month end, so trade with caution and consider standing aside if you can.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3370, 1.3420

"Set and forget" entry: SELL 1.3355, stop 1.3385, target 1.3255

Counter-trend opportunities: N/A

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday March 29 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 26 10:00 New Home Sales Feb 1000K 995K 937K
Mar 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 108.5 109.0 112.5
Mar 28 08:30 Durable Orders Feb 3.0% 3.0% -7.8%
Mar 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/23 NA NA 3924K
Mar 29 08:30 Initial Claims 03/24 320K NA 316K
Mar 29 08:30 GDP-Final Q4 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Mar 29 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q4 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Mar 29 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Feb 32 31 32
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Income Feb 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Spending Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 49.5 49.5 47.9
Mar 30 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -0.3% -0.6% -0.8%
Mar 30 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Mar 88.8 88.8 88.8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3420

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Dropping from 1.3370 as expected, and we have corrected 61.8% of the rally this week. There is a chance we will not drop lower than 1.3300 today and this is seen as an opportunity to buy euros again for a move to 1.3370. Remember that technical levels are not clear and the market is in ranging mode, so we will continue to look to buy low and sell high.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3370, 1.3420

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3320, stop 1.3290, target 1.3370

Counter-trend opportunities: N/A

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday March 30 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 26 10:00 New Home Sales Feb 1000K 995K 937K
Mar 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 108.5 109.0 112.5
Mar 28 08:30 Durable Orders Feb 3.0% 3.0% -7.8%
Mar 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/23 NA NA 3924K
Mar 29 08:30 Initial Claims 03/24 320K NA 316K
Mar 29 08:30 GDP-Final Q4 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Mar 29 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q4 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Mar 29 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Feb 32 31 32
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Income Feb 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Spending Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 49.5 49.5 47.9
Mar 30 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -0.3% -0.6% -0.8%
Mar 30 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Mar 88.8 88.8 88.8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3420

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: After being in an 80 pip range for three days, there is not a lot to add to the picture. Expect a large move today as we end the month, positions are squared, and a raft of US data is released later. The weekly picture continues to look bearish, but the overall trend is still upwards, so there may be opportunities to buy low or the sell high. Watch for signs of topping at 1.3380/1.3400 or signs of basing between 1.3250 and 1.3150, if we get a sudden move lower. It is probably best to wait this one out and to enter the market early next week after the month end move has settled down.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3370, 1.3420

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3200, stop 1.3130, target 1.3350. SELL 1.3370, stop 1.3430, target 1.3200.

Counter-trend opportunities: as above.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday April 02 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 02 10:00 ISM Index Mar 52.5 51.0 52.3
Apr 03 17:00 Auto Sales Mar 5.2M 5.1M 5.1M
Apr 03 17:00 Truck Sales Mar 7.6M 7.6M 7.7M
Apr 04 10:00 Factory Orders Feb 1.8% 2.0% -5.6%
Apr 04 10:00 ISM Services Mar 55.0 54.7 54.3
Apr 04 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/30 NA NA -846K
Apr 05 08:30 Initial Claims 03/31 315K NA 308K
Apr 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 150K 120K 97K
Apr 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Mar 4.6% 4.6% 4.5%
Apr 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Mar 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Apr 06 08:30 Average Workweek Mar 33.8 33.8 33.7
Apr 06 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Feb 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Apr 06 15:00 Consumer Credit Feb $5.5B $5.0B $6.4B

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3420

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Difficult trading conditions as we oscillate around the top of the recent range and near long term resistance levels at 1.3400. Despite the previous week's "spike high" candle, last week's market did not follow through to the downside, and this means that there is now an equal chance of a move in either direction. It is worth remembering that we now begin a new quarter, so it is likely that we will begin to find a direction this week, especially with the jobs report being released on Friday. Continue to try shorts whilst below 1.3420, with a target near 1.3200. Above 1.3420 means we are moving higher to 1.3500 and 1.3700. Try selling on signs of topping at around 1.3390/1.3400, stops above 1.3420, with aggressive traders prepared to reverse to long at the same time for 1.3500.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3370, 1.3420

"Set and forget" entry: SELL 1.3400, stop/reverse 1.3435, target 1.3200 or 1.3500.

Counter-trend opportunities: as above.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday April 03 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 02 10:00 ISM Index Mar 52.5 51.0 52.3
Apr 03 17:00 Auto Sales Mar 5.2M 5.1M 5.1M
Apr 03 17:00 Truck Sales Mar 7.6M 7.6M 7.7M
Apr 04 10:00 Factory Orders Feb 1.8% 2.0% -5.6%
Apr 04 10:00 ISM Services Mar 55.0 54.7 54.3
Apr 04 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/30 NA NA -846K
Apr 05 08:30 Initial Claims 03/31 315K NA 308K
Apr 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 150K 120K 97K
Apr 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Mar 4.6% 4.6% 4.5%
Apr 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Mar 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Apr 06 08:30 Average Workweek Mar 33.8 33.8 33.7
Apr 06 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Feb 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Apr 06 15:00 Consumer Credit Feb $5.5B $5.0B $6.4B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3420

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: No change after a 49 pip range yesterday: Difficult trading conditions as we oscillate around the top of the recent range and near long term resistance levels at 1.3400. Despite the previous week's "spike high" candle, last week's market did not follow through to the downside, and this means that there is now an equal chance of a move in either direction. It is worth remembering that we now begin a new quarter, so it is likely that we will begin to find a direction this week, especially with the jobs report being released on Friday. Continue to try shorts whilst below 1.3420, with a target near 1.3200. Above 1.3420 means we are moving higher to 1.3500 and 1.3700. Try selling on signs of topping at around 1.3390/1.3400, stops above 1.3420, with aggressive traders prepared to reverse to long at the same time for 1.3500.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3370, 1.3420

"Set and forget" entry: SELL 1.3400, stop/reverse 1.3435, target 1.3200 or 1.3500.

Counter-trend opportunities: as above.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex618.net daily currency report

USD/JPY

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 117.40

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: As our view for long term dollar weakness remains intact, we feel that 122.20 will cap rallies and initiate a drop back towards 105.00. Above 122.20 means that the dollar could rally much higher before a medium term top is formed.

Today's trade suggestion: No change: Despite a relative lack of activity in the other majors, the Dollar/Yen has rallied quite impressively, trying to squeeze back to the top of the original "bear flag" after a false break lower last week. This means that a) weekly momentum has reversed to bullish, and b) we must allow for a rally to 119.20 - 119.50 before a correction is due. This gives us the chance to trade in both directions, with sell signals near 119.00/50 leading to a drop to 118.50, and probably 117.70/118.00, where we can exit shorts and buy.

Key G7 Support levels: 118.50, 118.00, 117.70

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 118.00, stop 117.50, target 119.00

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 119.00, stop 119.60, target 118.00

USD/JPY Hourly chart:



USD/JPY Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday April 09 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3320

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Down to 1.3350, which is first support, the 200 hour SMA and hourly trend line, after topping out at 1.3440. There is no clear evidence of basing here yet and there is potential for a drop back towards the bottom of the range near 1.3300 or 1.3250. Watch for clear G7 reversal patterns on the hourly chart, with a "spike low" or bullish engulfing candle before buying. Caution is required because, although weekly momentum is bullish, we have formed another small "spike high" on the weekly candle which may turn out to be a false break. Try small longs on signs of basing at 1.3350, stops below 1.3320, being prepared to re-buy at 1.3300/1.3250 after a G7 entry signal, stops below the entry candle. Target 1.3440 and then 1.3500.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3250, stop 1.3220, Target 1.3440/1.3500

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday April 10 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3320

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Back up to 1.3430 as expected, and probably going higher this week. Hold longs from 1.3350, with stops now at break even, with targets of 1.3440 and 1.3550 by midweek. Remember to keep stops trailing higher, as trading remains risky as we approach all time highs for the euro and some of the cross rates touch new record highs.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250

"Set and forget" entry: None

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday April 11 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3320

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Very tricky, because despite a new 2 year high for the euro at 1.3456, the price has not managed to follow through with any real momentum, with clear signs of topping on hourly studies (note the G7 signal - www.forex-science.com) It is worth closing long trades at this stage and trying small shorts at 1.3430, with stops above 1.3470, with an initial target of 1.3300, and the possibly 1.3250 before new attempts to stabilise. Because almost everyone is bullish on the euro right now, the chances of a sudden slip lower are very high!

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3380, 1.3300

"Set and forget" entry: SELL 1.3430, stop 1.3470, target 1.3250

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[pssonice]

carefully performed well-analyzed study ...

in EUR/USD

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday April 12 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3320

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Close to 1.3480, the high reached in March 2005, and now looking like a test of 1.3500 is on the cards. Momentum remains bullish and we now prefer to buy on dips. These should hold above 1.3400/1.3380, with a target of 1.3500, and then maybe 1.3600. Proceed with caution as we reach near record highs again, and be prepared for sudden, and possibly large, corrections as this market becomes a one-way bet. Today, be prepared to sell into rallies to 1.3500, only on clear signs of topping, with stops above 1.3520, ready to exit and reverse positions to long at 1.3400, stops below 1.3370.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3380, 1.3400

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3400, stop 1.3370, target 1.3500

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Friday April 13 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9820

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, Sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast. Big overhead resistance from very long term highs lies above between 1.9800 and 2.100, and general dollar weakness supports from underneath. This means we shall have to allow for more of the same for several more weeks or months, and trading will continue to be tricky.

Today's trade suggestion: We have a marginal new high at 1.9838, just above the key 1.9800 level and around about the top of last week's "spike high" This is a key moment for the pound (and it's Friday the 13th!) If we move above here and close above 1.9800 this week, we have a real chance at 2.0000. However, a setback here could knock the pound down by a few cents. Aggressive traders should SELL 1.9830/40, stops above 1.9860, with a target of 1.9700 and then 1.9600. Otherwise, wait for a move lower to buy into dips near the lower 200 Bollinger on signs of basing next week.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.9820

"Set and forget" entry: SELL 1.9830, stop 1.9860, target 1.9600.

Counter-trend opportunities: None

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

 

[pssonice]

Yesterdays" trade suggestion: " very good

"Today's trade suggestion: Close to 1.3480, ...
a test of 1.3500 is on the cards. ...
Momentum remains bullish and we now prefer to buy on dips ...
These should hold above 1.3400/1.3380, with a target of 1.3500, and then maybe 1.3600. ...
be prepared to sell into rallies to 1.3500, on clear signs of topping, with stops above 1.3520...

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Monday April 16 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 16 08:30 Retail Sales Mar 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Apr 16 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Mar 0.9% 0.7% -0.1%
Apr 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Apr 10.0 10.0 1.9
Apr 16 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Feb $80.0B $97.4B
Apr 16 10:00 Business Inventories Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 17 08:30 CPI Mar 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Apr 17 08:30 Core CPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 17 08:30 Housing Starts Mar 1495K 1500K 1525K
Apr 17 08:30 Building Permits Mar 1520K 1515K 1532K
Apr 17 09:15 Industrial Production Mar 0.2% 0.1% 1.0%
Apr 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Mar 82.0% 81.9% 82.0%
Apr 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/13 NA NA 678K
Apr 19 08:30 Initial Claims 04/14 325K NA 342K
Apr 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Mar 0.2% 0.1% -0.5%
Apr 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Apr 2.0 3.0 0.2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3340

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: If anyone was in doubt about dollar weakness, they will have had to adjust their views as the euro has moved just shy of 1.3600, and very near the all time high of 1.3667. Our model remains bullish whilst we hold above 1.3340 and we continue to look to buy on dips. We will allow for some short term correction from around the 1.3600/50 levels, with support now at 1.3450/20. Wait for a clear G7 entry signal here before buying euros for another attempt at breaking above 1.3600 and then above 1.3667 towards 1.3800. As always, when approaching such extremely high levels, be aware that sudden large corrections can and do occur, and trade with caution.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3380, 1.3450

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3450, stop 1.3410, target 1.3600

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.3660, stop 1.3700, target 1.3560

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com daily currency report on GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9590

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, Buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast. Big overhead resistance from very long term highs lies above between 1.9800 and 2.100, and general dollar weakness supports from underneath. This means we shall have to allow for more of the same for several more weeks or months, and trading will continue to be tricky.

Today's trade suggestion: The highest level the pound has reached in 22 years is 2.0100, and we are only a few pips short of that this morning. Remember that this is a very large and very key number and that as we get close to it there are likely to be market jitters and possibly even panic, causing large swings in both directions. It is likely that the market will top out here, or just above here (between 2.0100 and 2.0200), before making a (possibly dramatic) corrective move towards 1.9850. This will probably be accompanied by a clear reversal signal, such as a large "spike high" or a dominant bearish engulfing candle. This will be an excellent opportunity to take advantage of the reverse swing and gain 200-300 pips quite rapidly.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.9850

"Set and forget" entry: None

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 2.0140, stop 2.0240, target 1.9850 (aggressive traders can try at 2.0100, stop 1.20150)

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart: