Forex trading live calls and set ups

[oildaytrader]

Long cable 1.4977 stop 20

Closed for + 3

 

[leovirgo]

HERE IS THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH ANY STAKING PLAN

WHATEVER YOUR SYSTEM IS BETTING AGAINST WILL EVENTUALLY COME IN AND CLEAN YOU OUT.

That means if you keep the stake at constant level "within the house rules".

But Flash, it depends on how you structure your game, right?

The beauty of trading is that a trader can define own rules and become a house.

Basically you have to behave as a house.. not as a player.

Increasing stakes is still acting as a player.

 

[leovirgo]

we need three more to have a royal flush..

 

[trendie]

we need three more to have a royal flush..

you need:
donald "duke"
"count" erviolent_moves

(cant think of any more)

 

[Lord Flasheart]

That means if you keep the stake at constant level "within the house rules".

But Flash, it depends on how you structure your game, right?

The beauty of trading is that a trader can define own rules and become a house.

Basically you have to behave as a house.. not as a player.

Increasing stakes is still acting as a player.

precisely. An automated system with increased stakes is behaving as a player.
Increasing stakes with descetionary trades where you hope to have an edge will increase your winnings.
Counting cards used to be a sure fire way of overcoming the house edge.Using a staking plan in a casino you are always guaranteed to fail sooner or later. All we try and do is put the odds slightly in our favour and then adjust our stakes accordingly

 

[leovirgo]

you need:
donald "duke"
"count" erviolent_moves

(cant think of any more)

our very own Lightning McQueen

 

[oildaytrader]

Long e usd 1.3530 stop 45

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Morning all short eur jpy 125.42 of top of t/l pull back

 

[Lord Flasheart]

sometimes they work well s/l 12

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Morning all short eur jpy 125.42 of top of t/l pull back

1/3 off at +15
rest to -3

 

[Lord Flasheart]

1/3 off at +15
rest to -3

1/3 rd off at +32

 

[oildaytrader]

You miss the point
WHATEVER SEQUENCE YOU CHOSE WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE. you may win the first 100 trades,the next will wipe you out. The trades you called today looked good how can any system beat that, even if they werent real.

G M

What scares you is that your method isn't robust enough, and could get hit with a big losing streak of more than 4 ,and believe me it will happen when volatility increases and 12 pip stop behaves like a 2 pip stop.

Look at the excel sheet below using a 12 pip stop , increasing your losing position by 50%,and a low profit target of 25 pips max.If your maximum losses are four ,one can easily use the progressive betting.

I have use 3 mini lots .One tweak to this betting sequence is to close 1/3 of your poisitions for 10, second at 15 and third is moved to b/e.

What do you think?

I do not recommend it because one can hit a big losing streak .

O D T

 

[leovirgo]

I am out of UJ long +2. Going to swing EU for 1.3520, stop moved to b/e+3. No need to micro-manage it anymore.

Target reached but it took my b/e+3 stop before going up again ( for +75pips move), run-up when I moved stop to b/e+3 was +30 pips, original stop was -10.

GU also up. Waiting until and after UK GDP announcement due in 45mins.

Nice to see flash bagging pips for breakfast.

 

[oildaytrader]

Target reached but it took my b/e+3 stop before going up again ( for +75pips move), run-up when I moved stop to b/e+3 was +30 pips, original stop was -10.

GU also up. Waiting until and after UK GDP announcement due in 45mins.

Nice to see flash bagging pips for breakfast.

If you believe in a good set up , and want to let your trade to run ,don't use move to breakeven . Infact keep your stop so far ,they can't take you out of a good trade.On some of my strategies ,I use 100 pip stops, and they are profitable.

O D T

 

[leovirgo]

If you believe in a good set up , and want to let your trade to run ,don't use move to breakeven . Infact keep your stop so far ,they can't take you out of a good trade.On some of my strategies ,I use 100 pip stops, and they are profitable.

O D T

You're right. EU was not in an uptrend but I decided to let it run & take the risk of stopping at b/e.

I tend to move stop to b/e once the run up has reached more than 2x initial stop. In this case it has reached 3x. Another option is take 50% profit and let the rest run. Either way, it works in my favor over time.

 

[oildaytrader]

long e usd 1.3530 stop 45

-45

 

[trendie]

Morning all short eur jpy 125.42 of top of t/l pull back

brilliant trade there, Flash.
I cant even see which points were used to draw those TLs. (even with the chart)

 

[Lord Flasheart]

G M

What scares you is that your method isn't robust enough, and could get hit with a big losing streak of more than 4 ,and believe me it will happen when volatility increases and 12 pip stop behaves like a 2 pip stop.

Look at the excel sheet below using a 12 pip stop , increasing your losing position by 50%,and a low profit target of 25 pips max.If your maximum losses are four ,one can easily use the progressive betting.

I have use 3 mini lots .One tweak to this betting sequence is to close 1/3 of your poisitions for 10, second at 15 and third is moved to b/e.

What do you think?

I do not recommend it because one can hit a big losing streak .

O D T

stop now at +50 ive been adjusting while writting,happy days:clap:

Thanks for that odt, i understand what you are saying, but what you are doing wont work in real time with spreads,slippage,etc.
What I do will. The markets are volatile at the moment and if that increases, a trendline is still a trendline and a point of entry. There is some sense in what you say
If you are interested I will try and think of a better staking plan other than increasing by 50% although that one is simple and far better than most I know(i know of every plan going). In some ways we are similar,I have a general taget of 30 pips with a 10 pip stop. This changes all the time,but I do increase after 2 or 3 losers as R/R is in my favour. As a very flexible rule of thumb my staking plan is 1x,1x,1x 2x,2x,3x. Its never gone beyond that in recent times. I also adjust when I feel confident about the outcome. If I did go to 3x stake and that lost Id just stop and start at the beginning,swallow some loses. You dont seem to want any loses. How many lots are you prepared to go to?

 

[Lord Flasheart]

brilliant trade there, Flash.
I cant even see which points were used to draw those TLs. (even with the chart)

stop at +60

Hi Trendie

First chart shows 60 min resistance at that level
second chart
Points A are the trendline
Point B is the trend break
Point c is a trendline pull back to the line and resistance at that level

sometimes it works sometimes not

 

[oildaytrader]

stop now at +50 ive been adjusting while writting,happy days:clap:

Thanks for that odt, i understand what you are saying, but what you are doing wont work in real time with spreads,slippage,etc.
What I do will. The markets are volatile at the moment and if that increases, a trendline is still a trendline and a point of entry. There is some sense in what you say
If you are interested I will try and think of a better staking plan other than increasing by 50% although that one is simple and far better than most I know(i know of every plan going). In some ways we are similar,I have a general taget of 30 pips with a 10 pip stop. This changes all the time,but I do increase after 2 or 3 losers as R/R is in my favour. As a very flexible rule of thumb my staking plan is 1x,1x,1x 2x,2x,3x. Its never gone beyond that in recent times. I also adjust when I feel confident about the outcome. If I did go to 3x stake and that lost Id just stop and start at the beginning,swallow some loses. You dont seem to want any loses. How many lots are you prepared to go to?

Maximum 10 losses * 3 mini lots = 35 approximately as per above sheet.As regards the betting sequence one can use one for each day of the week, one for monday, second for tuesday and you have 5 separate betting sequences.If you have 5 sequences , if you have maximum 5 losers ,you can spread the losers among 5 ,and get only one loser per sequence