Forex Fundamental And Technical Analysis

[CSFX.Support]

Forex Market Reacts to US Tariffs: EUR/USD Rises, USD/JPY Falls Ahead of NFP Report.​

Major currency pairs remain volatile on Friday as global markets react to sweeping trade tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Mounting fears of a global economic slowdown, shifting central bank expectations, and anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report are driving sharp movements across the EUR, GBP, JPY, and AUD.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD Rises as US Dollar Weakens Before Key Data.
• GBP/USD Holds Strong Amid US Tariff Shock and Uncertainty.
• USD/JPY Drops as Investors Seek Safe-Haven Amid Tariff Risks.
• AUD/USD Declines on Trade War Concerns and RBA Rate Bets.

Markets in Focus Today​

EUR/USD: Euro Climbs Past 1.1050 Ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls​

The EUR/USD pair extends its gains for a third consecutive session, trading around 1.1080 during early European hours on Friday. This upward momentum is driven by broad-based weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Key data releases, including German Factory Orders and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, remain in focus.

Market Drivers​

• President Trump announced sweeping global tariffs, including:
• 10% base duty on imports from most U.S. trading partners.
• 20% tariff on European Union (EU) goods.
• Additional higher tariffs on imports from other major trade allies.
• These measures, set to take effect on April 9, have raised concerns over a global economic slowdown.
• The market is pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in April.

Technical Overview

​

Moving Averages:

• Exponential:
• MA 10: 1.0882 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0825 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0693 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 1.0844 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0861 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0624 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Indicators:

• RSI: 66.72 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 61.33 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels:

• Resistance: R1: 1.0938, R2: 1.1074
• Support: S1: 1.0495, S2: 1.0358

Market Sentiment: Bullish

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.0859
• Take Profit: 1.1070
• Stop Loss: 1.0734

---

GBP/USD: Pound Sterling Holds Firm Amid U.S. Economic Pressures​

Visit US Capital Street FX

 

[CSFX.Support]

US Dollar Weakens After Moody’s Downgrade; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD Rise as Rate Cut Bets Grow.​

Currency markets opened the week with a mix of caution and volatility. The US Dollar weakened significantly following Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. Diverging central bank outlooks, geopolitical headlines, and fresh economic data from the US and UK are reshaping trader sentiment in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD. US and UK traders are closely monitoring these developments during overlapping trading hours for timely opportunities.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD rebounds near 1.1200 as US Dollar weakens.
• GBP/USD holds gains near 1.3300 amid Dollar pressure.
• USD/JPY slips toward 145.00 amid safe-haven Yen demand.
• AUD/USD steady above 0.6400 after mixed China data.

EUR/USD​

Euro Gains Momentum Toward 1.1200 as Dollar Falters on Moody’s Downgrade​

The EUR/USD pair climbed during early Monday trading, touching 1.1190 as the US Dollar lost ground across both London and New York sessions. The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s—from Aaa to Aa1—has shaken investor confidence, citing spiraling federal debt, rising interest costs, and expanding deficits.

While this mirrors earlier downgrades by Fitch and S&P, it has re-ignited questions among US-based traders about fiscal sustainability and future Fed policy. Traders in the UK are also reassessing the ECB’s potential next move, as signs point toward another rate cut—especially with Eurozone inflation gradually aligning with the ECB’s 2% target.

Geopolitically, both US and UK investors are eyeing US-China trade negotiations and early optimism over talks with Iran and Russia. The latter could reduce global risk premiums, especially relevant to UK institutional portfolios.

📊 Technical Overview​

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):

• MA 10: 1.1214 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1227 | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1099 | Bullish

Simple Moving Averages (SMA):

• MA 10: 1.1217 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1282 | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1113 | Bullish

Indicators:

• RSI: 50.18 | Bullish
• Stochastic: 35.00 | Neutral

Support/Resistance:

• Resistance: 1.1529 / 1.1717
• Support: 1.0922 / 1.0734

🇺🇸/🇬🇧 Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.1159
• Take Profit: 1.1267
• Stop Loss: 1.1108

---

GBP/USD​

Sterling Holds Strong Near 1.3300 as US Sentiment Weakens​

What is Going on the Forex Market - Capital Street FX​

 

[CSFX.Support]

US Dollar Weakens on Inflation and Debt Worries.​

EUR/USD Outlook: Dollar Weakness Boosts Euro Near Key Resistance​

Price Holds Above 1.1250 in Early European Hours​

EUR/USD continues to build on recent gains, trading above 1.1250 in early London trading. US Dollar softness, driven by Moody’s credit downgrade, cooling inflation, and uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, is lending support to the pair.

With no major US data scheduled during the New York session, market focus for American traders shifts to Fed speakers and the potential for more dovish commentary. Meanwhile, UK-based traders await Wednesday’s UK CPI release, which could influence EUR/GBP sentiment and cross-hedging activity.

Key Technical Overview​

Moving Averages​

Exponential

• MA 10: 1.1230 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1235 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1107 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple

• MA 10: 1.1211 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1279 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1121 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Indicators​

• RSI: 54.28 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic: 49.14 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels​

• Resistance: R1: 1.1529 | R2: 1.1717
• Support: S1: 1.0922 | S2: 1.0734

Market Sentiment:​

Trade Suggestion (London/NY Traders):​

Limit Buy: 1.1189 | Take Profit: 1.1375 | Stop Loss: 1.1081

---

GBP/USD Outlook: Pound Gains Ground on USD Weakness​

Holding Firm Above 1.3350 During London Hours​

​

FULL FOREX UPDATE - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CSFX.Support]

Dollar in Freefall: Euro, Pound, and Aussie Surge as Fed Dovish Tilt Sparks Forex Shake-Up.​

EUR/USD: Euro Climbs on Dollar Weakness and Policy Divergence​

Fundamental Overview​

The euro gained further traction against the US Dollar during the UK and early US trading hours, with EUR/USD approaching the 1.1350 mark. The pair is finding support from persistent USD softness linked to trade tensions and deteriorating US fiscal credibility.

Traders in both the London and New York markets are now eyeing upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials for clarity on monetary policy direction. The divergence remains a key driver:

• ECB recently cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
• Fed remains on hold but is expected to cut rates twice before year-end due to cooling inflation and slower growth.

The market’s muted reaction to the US-China trade truce reflects skepticism, especially since the agreement lacks enforceable mechanisms and still retains a 20% tariff on fentanyl-linked imports. This undermines optimism and reduces confidence in the Greenback’s rebound.

Technical Overview​

Moving Averages – Bullish Momentum​

Exponential MA

• MA 10: 1.1248 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1244 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1116 – Bullish

Simple MA

• MA 10: 1.1213 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1279 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1130 – Bullish

Indicators​

• RSI: 57.23 – In buy zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 68.04 – Neutral to bullish

Support & Resistance​

• R1: 1.1529 | R2: 1.1717
• S1: 1.0922 | S2: 1.0734

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion

• Entry: Limit Buy at 1.1263
• Take Profit: 1.1425
• Stop Loss: 1.1168

---

GBP/USD: Sterling Soars to 3-Year High on Hotter UK Inflation​

Fundamental Overview​

FULL FOREX UPDATE - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CSFX.Support]

Dollar Weakens, EUR/USD and GBP/USD Surge Ahead of GDP and Retail Sales.​

Major currency pairs are showing notable price action during Friday’s Asian session, driven by weakening US Dollar sentiment, evolving central bank outlooks, and critical economic indicators. For traders in the UK and USA, attention now turns to Germany’s Q1 GDP and the UK’s Retail Sales data, both due during the local morning and early trading hours. With volatility expected, the USD’s trajectory will also hinge on upcoming US housing data later in the New York session.

EUR/USD – Rebounds Above 1.1300 as Focus Shifts to German GDP​

Fundamental Overview​

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1310 during early Friday hours in Europe, recovering from Thursday’s 0.5% loss amid a broad USD retreat. The US Dollar is under pressure as Treasury yields decline; notably, the 30-year bond yield has fallen from a 19-month high of 5.15%.

Local traders in the UK and USA should monitor Germany’s Q1 GDP report, which is scheduled for 11:30 BST (06:30 EDT). This data is crucial for Eurozone outlook and may shape EUR/USD momentum into the European and US trading sessions.

Key factors driving EUR/USD today:

• Weakening USD amid lower US Treasury yields.
• Political risk: President Trump’s fiscal bill, expected to widen the US deficit, weighs on sentiment.
• Eurozone flash PMIs show mixed performance, with German Services PMI dropping to 47.2.
• US PMI data surprised to the upside, with all key components above 52.

Technical Overview

​

Moving Averages​

• Exponential MAs:
• MA 10: 1.1266 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1254 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1130 – Bullish
• Simple MAs:
• MA 10: 1.1225 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1272 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1147 – Bullish

Indicators​

• RSI: 56.02 – Buy Zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 76.87 – Neutral

Support & Resistance​

• Resistance: R1 – 1.1529 | R2 – 1.1717
• Support: S1 – 1.0922 | S2 – 1.0734

Market Sentiment: Bullish
Trade Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion:

• Entry: 1.1262
• Take Profit: 1.1384
• Stop Loss: 1.1202

---

GBP/USD – Nears 39-Month High as Traders Eye UK Retail Sales​

Fundamental Overview​

FULL FOREX UPDATE - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CSFX.Support]

Forex Markets Steady as Traders Eye ECB Cut, US Jobs Data, and Trump-Xi Trade Talks.​

EUR/USD trades just under the 1.1400 mark as Eurozone inflation dips below the ECB’s 2% target.​

The pair could see renewed strength as the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure, weighed down by investor caution surrounding escalating tariff uncertainties and their potential drag on US economic growth. April’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed 7.39 million new job openings—surpassing both the March figure of 7.2 million and the market forecast of 7.1 million—pointing to continued resilience in the US labor market. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May, expected to show 130,000 job gains. A stronger-than-expected reading may boost the USD and exert downside pressure on EUR/USD. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments remain in focus. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet soon to address ongoing trade tensions. On Monday, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced compliance with the agreement by suspending certain tariff and non-tariff measures targeting the US. However, last week, President Trump accused China of violating the recent tariff truce. In the Eurozone, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined to 1.9% year-over-year in May—below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target for the first time in eight months. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, eased to 2.3% from 2.7% in April. The weaker inflation data has bolstered expectations for a rate cut at this week’s ECB meeting. Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point reduction in the Deposit Facility Rate, bringing it down to 2%.

Technical Overview With Chart :

​

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 :1353 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 :1319 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 :1196 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

• MA 10 :1356 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 :1284 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 :1231 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.4656 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 83.3643 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 :1411 R2 :1.1495
• S1 :1142 S2 :1.1058

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.1361 | Take Profit : 1.1444 | Stop Loss : 1.1313

GBP/USD​

GBP/USD holds above the 1.3500 level as the US Dollar weakens amid a broad “Sell America” sentiment.​

The pair may gain further support as the US Dollar remains under pressure amid the prevailing “Sell America” sentiment, driven by growing tariff uncertainty and its potential impact on US economic growth. April’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported 7.39 million new positions, exceeding both March’s 7.2 million and the market forecast of 7.1 million. Traders now turn their attention to the May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show a 130,000 increase in jobs. Geopolitical developments remain in focus as well. A potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is anticipated to address ongoing trade tensions. This follows China’s Ministry of Commerce rejecting Washington’s claims that Beijing violated the recent tariff truce. On the domestic front, Bank of England (BoE) officials appeared before Parliament for the Monetary Policy Report Hearings, offering insights into the central bank’s outlook. Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated his view that interest rates will likely be lowered but acknowledged a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic path ahead. He also warned that escalating global trade tensions could weigh on investment and growth. The hearings revealed a divided stance within the BoE. While some policymakers worry that inflation may remain sticky, others caution that maintaining elevated interest rates for too long could damage the economy. With no clear consensus, the BoE is expected to take a data-dependent approach to future rate decisions.

Technical Overview With Chart :

​

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 :3483 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 :3425 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 :3262 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

• MA 10 :3501 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 :3401 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 :3250 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 61.0668 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 80.8967 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 :3568 R2 :1.3675
• S1 :3222 S2 :1.3115

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.3507 | Take Profit : 1.3582 | Stop Loss : 1.3469

USD/CAD​

Visit Us For - Major Forex Pair Analysis By Capital Street FX​

 

[CSFX.Support]

Forex Markets Steady Ahead of ECB Rate Cut and US NFP; EUR/USD, GBP/USD Hold Bullish Bias​

Major currency pairs traded cautiously on Thursday as investors awaited key economic events, including the ECB’s interest rate decision and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Mixed global data and shifting central bank expectations kept volatility in check, while the U.S. Dollar remained in focus amid rising uncertainty.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD​

EUR/USD holds steady near the 1.1400 level as markets await the ECB’s interest rate decision.​

The EUR/USD pair trades with a cautious tone, hovering slightly above the key 1.1400 mark during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair is likely to remain range-bound as investors await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, set for release at 12:15 GMT. The ECB is widely expected to cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the Deposit Facility Rate down to 2% and the Main Refinancing Operations Rate to 2.15%. This would mark the ECB’s seventh consecutive rate cut and the eighth since it began its monetary easing cycle in June last year. Market confidence in another rate cut has strengthened amid continued disinflation in the Eurozone. Preliminary data for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) released Tuesday showed inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target. With the Federal Reserve also expected to ease policy, investors will closely monitor ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-decision press conference for signals on the central bank’s policy direction in the second half of the year. Markets will also be watching for any updates on trade negotiations with the United States. Attention will then shift to the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May, due on Friday.

Technical Overview With Chart:​

Moving Averages
Exponential:

• MA 10: 1.1367 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1330 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1205 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

• MA 10: 1.1372 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1295 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1244 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.3952 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 82.1478 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

• R1: 1.1411
• R2: 1.1495
• S1: 1.1142
• S2: 1.1058

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.1367
• Take Profit: 1.1513
• Stop Loss: 1.1290

---

GBP/USD​

GBP/USD stays under pressure below the 1.3550 mark as the U.S. Dollar regains strength, indicating a potential technical correction.​

GBP/USD pulls back from its recent gains, trading near the 1.3550 level during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair weakens as the U.S. Dollar strengthens on the back of a technical correction. However, the downside may be limited, as the Greenback could come under renewed pressure due to deteriorating risk sentiment linked to growing tariff uncertainties and concerns over their impact on U.S. economic growth. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the Services PMI declined to 49.9 in May, down from April’s 51.6 and below the expected 52.0. Additionally, the ADP report revealed that the U.S. private sector added just 37,000 jobs in May—well below the revised April figure of 60,000 and the forecast of 115,000. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged signs of softening in the labor market but emphasized ongoing economic uncertainty, suggesting the Federal Reserve will remain cautious and data-dependent. In contrast, UK economic data offered a slight boost. The S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 50.3 in May from April’s 48.5, beating the preliminary reading of 49.4. The Services PMI also improved to 50.9, signaling modest growth in the sector. Meanwhile, UK exporters will temporarily face the previous 25% tariff rate after President Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday easing the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Technical Overview With Chart:​

Moving Averages
Exponential:

• MA 10: 1.3497 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.3438 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.3273 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

• MA 10: 1.3515 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.3417 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.3262 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.8009 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
• Stochastic Oscillator: 82.7285 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

• R1: 1.3568
• R2: 1.3675
• S1: 1.3222
• S2: 1.3115

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.3544
• Take Profit: 1.3675
• Stop Loss: 1.2960

---

USD/CHF​

Visit Us For - Major Forex Pair Analysis By Capital Street FX​