Forex Fundamental And Technical Analysis

[CSFX.Support]

Forex Market Reacts to US Tariffs: EUR/USD Rises, USD/JPY Falls Ahead of NFP Report.​

Major currency pairs remain volatile on Friday as global markets react to sweeping trade tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Mounting fears of a global economic slowdown, shifting central bank expectations, and anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report are driving sharp movements across the EUR, GBP, JPY, and AUD.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD Rises as US Dollar Weakens Before Key Data.
• GBP/USD Holds Strong Amid US Tariff Shock and Uncertainty.
• USD/JPY Drops as Investors Seek Safe-Haven Amid Tariff Risks.
• AUD/USD Declines on Trade War Concerns and RBA Rate Bets.

Markets in Focus Today​

EUR/USD: Euro Climbs Past 1.1050 Ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls​

The EUR/USD pair extends its gains for a third consecutive session, trading around 1.1080 during early European hours on Friday. This upward momentum is driven by broad-based weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Key data releases, including German Factory Orders and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, remain in focus.

Market Drivers​

• President Trump announced sweeping global tariffs, including:
• 10% base duty on imports from most U.S. trading partners.
• 20% tariff on European Union (EU) goods.
• Additional higher tariffs on imports from other major trade allies.
• These measures, set to take effect on April 9, have raised concerns over a global economic slowdown.
• The market is pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in April.

Technical Overview

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Moving Averages:

• Exponential:
• MA 10: 1.0882 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0825 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0693 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 1.0844 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0861 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0624 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Indicators:

• RSI: 66.72 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 61.33 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels:

• Resistance: R1: 1.0938, R2: 1.1074
• Support: S1: 1.0495, S2: 1.0358

Market Sentiment: Bullish

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.0859
• Take Profit: 1.1070
• Stop Loss: 1.0734

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GBP/USD: Pound Sterling Holds Firm Amid U.S. Economic Pressures​

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[CSFX.Support]

US Dollar Weakens After Moody’s Downgrade; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD Rise as Rate Cut Bets Grow.​

Currency markets opened the week with a mix of caution and volatility. The US Dollar weakened significantly following Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. Diverging central bank outlooks, geopolitical headlines, and fresh economic data from the US and UK are reshaping trader sentiment in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD. US and UK traders are closely monitoring these developments during overlapping trading hours for timely opportunities.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD rebounds near 1.1200 as US Dollar weakens.
• GBP/USD holds gains near 1.3300 amid Dollar pressure.
• USD/JPY slips toward 145.00 amid safe-haven Yen demand.
• AUD/USD steady above 0.6400 after mixed China data.

EUR/USD​

Euro Gains Momentum Toward 1.1200 as Dollar Falters on Moody’s Downgrade​

The EUR/USD pair climbed during early Monday trading, touching 1.1190 as the US Dollar lost ground across both London and New York sessions. The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s—from Aaa to Aa1—has shaken investor confidence, citing spiraling federal debt, rising interest costs, and expanding deficits.

While this mirrors earlier downgrades by Fitch and S&P, it has re-ignited questions among US-based traders about fiscal sustainability and future Fed policy. Traders in the UK are also reassessing the ECB’s potential next move, as signs point toward another rate cut—especially with Eurozone inflation gradually aligning with the ECB’s 2% target.

Geopolitically, both US and UK investors are eyeing US-China trade negotiations and early optimism over talks with Iran and Russia. The latter could reduce global risk premiums, especially relevant to UK institutional portfolios.

📊 Technical Overview​

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):

• MA 10: 1.1214 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1227 | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1099 | Bullish

Simple Moving Averages (SMA):

• MA 10: 1.1217 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1282 | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1113 | Bullish

Indicators:

• RSI: 50.18 | Bullish
• Stochastic: 35.00 | Neutral

Support/Resistance:

• Resistance: 1.1529 / 1.1717
• Support: 1.0922 / 1.0734

🇺🇸/🇬🇧 Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.1159
• Take Profit: 1.1267
• Stop Loss: 1.1108

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GBP/USD​

Sterling Holds Strong Near 1.3300 as US Sentiment Weakens​

What is Going on the Forex Market - Capital Street FX​

 

[CSFX.Support]

US Dollar Weakens on Inflation and Debt Worries.​

EUR/USD Outlook: Dollar Weakness Boosts Euro Near Key Resistance​

Price Holds Above 1.1250 in Early European Hours​

EUR/USD continues to build on recent gains, trading above 1.1250 in early London trading. US Dollar softness, driven by Moody’s credit downgrade, cooling inflation, and uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, is lending support to the pair.

With no major US data scheduled during the New York session, market focus for American traders shifts to Fed speakers and the potential for more dovish commentary. Meanwhile, UK-based traders await Wednesday’s UK CPI release, which could influence EUR/GBP sentiment and cross-hedging activity.

Key Technical Overview​

Moving Averages​

Exponential

• MA 10: 1.1230 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1235 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1107 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple

• MA 10: 1.1211 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1279 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1121 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Indicators​

• RSI: 54.28 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic: 49.14 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels​

• Resistance: R1: 1.1529 | R2: 1.1717
• Support: S1: 1.0922 | S2: 1.0734

Market Sentiment:​

Trade Suggestion (London/NY Traders):​

Limit Buy: 1.1189 | Take Profit: 1.1375 | Stop Loss: 1.1081

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GBP/USD Outlook: Pound Gains Ground on USD Weakness​

Holding Firm Above 1.3350 During London Hours​

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[CSFX.Support]

Dollar in Freefall: Euro, Pound, and Aussie Surge as Fed Dovish Tilt Sparks Forex Shake-Up.​

EUR/USD: Euro Climbs on Dollar Weakness and Policy Divergence​

Fundamental Overview​

The euro gained further traction against the US Dollar during the UK and early US trading hours, with EUR/USD approaching the 1.1350 mark. The pair is finding support from persistent USD softness linked to trade tensions and deteriorating US fiscal credibility.

Traders in both the London and New York markets are now eyeing upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials for clarity on monetary policy direction. The divergence remains a key driver:

• ECB recently cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
• Fed remains on hold but is expected to cut rates twice before year-end due to cooling inflation and slower growth.

The market’s muted reaction to the US-China trade truce reflects skepticism, especially since the agreement lacks enforceable mechanisms and still retains a 20% tariff on fentanyl-linked imports. This undermines optimism and reduces confidence in the Greenback’s rebound.

Technical Overview​

Moving Averages – Bullish Momentum​

Exponential MA

• MA 10: 1.1248 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1244 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1116 – Bullish

Simple MA

• MA 10: 1.1213 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1279 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1130 – Bullish

Indicators​

• RSI: 57.23 – In buy zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 68.04 – Neutral to bullish

Support & Resistance​

• R1: 1.1529 | R2: 1.1717
• S1: 1.0922 | S2: 1.0734

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion

• Entry: Limit Buy at 1.1263
• Take Profit: 1.1425
• Stop Loss: 1.1168

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GBP/USD: Sterling Soars to 3-Year High on Hotter UK Inflation​

Fundamental Overview​

FULL FOREX UPDATE - CAPITAL STREET FX​