Forecast the move of the Index

[redcloud]

I write this thread with the hope to begin a conversation about forecast the move of the index ( Dow Jones and S&P 500 ) and the respective Futures Contract for a very short term trading.
We know that at the open the Index go higher or lower, depend on level of the futures respect the fair value, in the meantime the futures move little after some minutes the futures begin to move. This is the point for the rest of the day. During the day sometime the Index move head the Futures contract ( example Dow-Jones / Mini Dow S&P / e-Mini S&P) and sometime the Futures move first. I try to watch some indicator to predict the move of the Index, Market Volatility Index VIX, Nyse Short Term Trade Index TRIN, Nyse Issues Up/down Ratio TICK ecc but all are behind the Index only one that seem to be in line is the Djia Issues Up/down Ratio TIKI.
Now I’m thinking that since the Index are composed by stock, likely some stock or some group of stock must move before the Index. Someone of you have try some instrument for anticipate the Index?
Thanks

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi Redcloud

To be honest, I think any move / advantage you get would be too short to really make money on it.

I think Naz said he looked to Microsoft to make a move ahead of the Nasdaq.

 

[mmillar]

Hi redcloud,

The 'standard' stock to watch is Merrill Lynch (MER). However, though it's been on my screen for a year (along with the tick, trin, vix etc) I have never used it to trade.

You might want to look at this...

http://www.daytradersaction.com/education/high5table.asp

which uses the same indicators but in a different way.

cheers

mmillar

 

[Skimbleshanks]

You might think I have really lost it here, but IMO the reason the markets move is because of the influence of the planets.

That's why it's almost irrelevant which index is leading; they will all move in the same direction because they are 'pre-programmed' by the planets to move. I use the net figure for all the indices because I find it easier to see which one is leading on that day.

And if you want the average times of the turns in the Dow tomorrow (Friday), they are 09:45, 10:50, 14:10; and 16:00 (US time). So on that basis you would expect to see three trends - up until 10:50, then down until 14:10 and then up into the close. These are the average times for that particular day, so you would expect to see the turns within, say, a 30 minute window of those times.

But please don't under any circumstances base any trading decision on this - I'm only giving them to you for a bit of fun. And you can give me a slap if they're wrong!

 

[ed crane]

as a matter of interest where do you get these times from?

 

[cassiopeia]

the reason the markets move is because of the influence of the planets.

you mean PLANET EARTH! :cheesy:

 

[Trader333]

For the Nasdaq, the two main stocks that will influence the move of the index are Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC). A significant move in these two stocks will cause a move in the index itself.

Also a move in the Nasdaq index is often followed by a move in the S&P and Dow indices.


Paul

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Ed Crane - I spent two years studying every intraday chart of the Dow and worked them out myself.

Cassiopeia - no, I don't mean planet Earth.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Do you mean you looked at intra-day charts and linked them to the movement of the planets?

If so, what about the Moon? It's a bit closer than Pluto. There have been studies about the correlation of moon phases and market movements.

 

[FTSE Beater]

If so, what about the Moon? It's a bit closer than Pluto.

That is complete RUBBISH - Pluto is currently only 15 yards from here. I can see him talking to Mickey Mouse on the Disney Channel. The moon however, is way way up in the sky. :cheesy:

 

[neil]

"That is complete RUBBISH - Pluto is currently only 15 yards from here. I can see him talking to Mickey Mouse on the Disney Channel. The moon however, is way way up in the sky. "



FTSE you are a wag......Made me fall off the bar stool.

 

[ChartMan]

Skim mentioned this to me a while ago and we both fell about laughing.... So I said to her, 'you should have the courage to post your predictions' and see what happens. I thought it a bit strange, I must admit, But I'm not known for blowing someone out without good reason.
SO all you dis-believers, I'll blow the trumpet a bit here and make you sit up and think just a little bit harder. Skim posted these turning times yesterday, don't forget! Give her credit for being pessimistic too- she posted a +/- 30 minute window. I'll remind you of the times....
And if you want the average times of the turns in the Dow tomorrow (Friday), they are 09:45, 10:50, 14:10; and 16:00 (US time).
Now here's the actuals:-
9:50
10:55
14:01
15:50

So now you can stop taking the p*** and just think for a minute......
I think I'll be popping round to see her etchings.
I wonder if she would be prepared to post again on Monday?....
From our brief discussion, there seems to be far more to this than just posting the next day's reversals......

 

[a320]

Skim is giving a glimpse of arcane lore which may only be appreciated by those initiated

 

[ChartMan]

Well, you should know, having spent a good portion of your life in the skies....

 

[suggy]

surely skim can just read the tea leaves for the futures . . .

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Tea leaves - now there's a challenge!

OK Chartman, just for a laugh - Monday's average turning times on the Dow are: 09:31, 10:15, 12:00, 14:10, 09:40 Tuesday morning, all US times. The 14:10, from my experience, is the most difficult to plan for as it has the widest window of all the points.

Just in case anyone is thinking that knowing these turning times in advance will benefit your trading, I'm sorry to say that it won't. And believe me, I've been using them for long enough to know that they can help but most of the time they actually hinder you. Some days the turns are not very clear, other days they hit you in the eye.

 

[tomorton]

A simple suggestion for finding the day's direction of the FTSE100. I can't back this up with data yet, it just seems to be a recurring pattern.

It appears that the FTSE often reverses at least once before 10am, sometimes twice. So entering a trade early is high risk. The high and low made during the first 2 hours appear to act as if they were resistance and support respectively: i.e. if they are penetrated, the price moves energetically further in that direction, far enough to make a trade worthwhile.

What I mean is, at 10am find the high and the low reached so far. If the price rises above the pre-10am high at any time later in the day go long: if the it falls below the pre-10am low, go short.

Please feel free to shoot this idea down in flames. All comments welcome.

 

[neil]

Breakout Sysytems

Here is a thread in simalar vein to Tomortons'.

It deals with finding the high and low within the first hour. There are variations and this thread was spawned by an earlier long thread on the same subject.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=15110

Hope this helps.

 

[tomorton]

Neil - thank you very much for your quick answer. I am off to have a look now! Will report back afterwards.

 

[tomorton]

Neil (and others) on here.

Thanks Neil - had a look at the elitetrader threadand it was indeed useful. They're mostly trading the Nas but it seems to me ther'd be no reason why a crowd of traders on the FTSE wouldn't behave similarly.

What we're talking about for benefit of others is the pattern often seen early in the day when an index makes a high, then a low, then pushes throught the first high - shape like a letter N. Direction is long, as soon a sposs after the low.

Of course, it can be a low first - shape like a letter N reflected in a mirror.

I suspect:

1. this is a common pattern for the FTSE100
2. the first leg of the pattern gives the likely later day's trend but that its too risky to go in until the second leg has been completed
3. on the FTSE100 the pattern is usually completed by 10am.

Well, what do people say?

Up till now I have to admit I've been the worst ever intra-day trader, just entering positions as moves ended, never holding long enough for the move to resume (lack of confidence). But this is tempting me to try again. Are people using this pattern, with refinements? Or have people found it to be a waste of time?

All comments welcome (I'm a big boy now).

tomorton