Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 27%, SS – 31% /
FTG Score / D -29.6, W -18, M -46.1 /
Huge change in Traders positions (bullish cot signal) and the stresses in the market are also becoming more and more bullish. Because of the FTG scores I’d be neglecting this market for now.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C – 567, LS – 563 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -38.6, W 10.2, M -14 /
The extreme became even greater than last week, but the price was unable to continue its decline. Maybe the downtrend is over? I’d be betting on that more… Since we have still a negative FTG score (daily), I may wait until it becomes positive.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 119, LS – 118, SS - 120 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -22.3, W -12.2, M -33.1 /
Maybe not as large extreme as for CHF, but still big enough to consider taking a position on the LONG side. Same as in case of MXP and CHF, it would be nice to see supporting FTG scores.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Quantower]

COT data providing by Reuters http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/02/cftc.html

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 23%, SS – 21% /
FTG Score / D -42.4, W -48.9, M -3.5 /
Large bearish cot change signal combined with FTG scores that signal weakness in the market --> I am expecting a bit of pullback in prices. On the other hand we should not forget about the bullish cot extreme that triggered this rally and the fact that we are pretty far away from bearish extremes.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 29.1, W 18.6, M -13.4 /
The All time bearish cot extreme in Gasoline suggest prices have reached their top, we should be seeing lower prices coming.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / LS – 564 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -39.6, W 5.1, M -5.9 /
The increase that we have witnessed suggests that the bullish cot extreme we have in the market may very well be successful.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[sto123]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 23%, SS – 21% /
FTG Score / D -42.4, W -48.9, M -3.5 /
Large bearish cot change signal combined with FTG scores that signal weakness in the market --> I am expecting a bit of pullback in prices. On the other hand we should not forget about the bullish cot extreme that triggered this rally and the fact that we are pretty far away from bearish extremes.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 29.1, W 18.6, M -13.4 /
The All time bearish cot extreme in Gasoline suggest prices have reached their top, we should be seeing lower prices coming.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / LS – 564 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -39.6, W 5.1, M -5.9 /
The increase that we have witnessed suggests that the bullish cot extreme we have in the market may very well be successful.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

This is very helpful, thanks for posting.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 47%, LS – 47% /
FTG Score / D 36.8, W -10.5, M 20.7 /
We are witnessing truly large changes in Traders position (bearish cot signal), but caution is advised for two reasons: The bullish cot extreme that lead us to this rally has still not decreased too much, FuturesTradingGuides scores indicate further positive signs in the market…

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 606 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -34.9, W -44.9, M -33.3 /
Platinum cot report is showing us a very bullish picture… The fact the Large Speculators are net short is “scary”, haven’t happened too many times in the past. FTG scores are still bearish which means patience could be needed / further decline in the short-medium term is likely.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C,LS – 227 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -64.3, W -19.2, M -15.7 /
Similarly to Platinum, we have a significant bullish cot signal, but here the FTG system is indicating (especially in the short term – daily) a very bearish picture… I’d wait for FTG score values to at least settle down before I take any action.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 22% /
FTG Score / D 35.4, W 35.1, M 25.5 /
The bearish cot change signal is telling us that prices will not be able to continue their rise early this week, but FTG Score 35.4 (Daily) is supporting higher prices. I would step away from Nasdaq for now…

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.5, W -41.5, M -23.8 /
All Time cot extreme are always exciting to have in a market. Neither Commercials nor LS have held such big long/short positions in the cot History of Coffee. We can expect a major change in the trend. The only BIG question is “when”? For this, it is advisable to go into details and here is where FuturesTradingGuides comes handy. FTG scores are very bearish still which warns us to be patient with entry. I would wait for the system to show me a signs of strength before entry, or at least I would cautiously enter the market (scaling in the position).

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 1030 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.1, W -36.0, M -3.9 /
I have become very bullish with silver recently (prepared for the “everything bubble” to pop), so I was pretty satisfied to see Platinum producing this all time bullish cot extreme. If you open a longer chart for platinum, you can find that it has been approximately 15 years since LS were ne short in this market… unbelievable! This is a GREAT opportunity in precious metals! Similarly to my suggestion in Coffee, we might need to be patient, FTG scores are still very bearish.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 18%, SS – 16% /
FTG Score / D 41.1, W -0.1, M 14.3 /
The larger than average change in Traders positions suggests that prices may fall in the short run, but looking at the extreme, I don’t see why the USD Index cannot continue the rise.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -43.8, W -39.2, M -25.6 /
The picture here is pretty much the same. COT data shows added stress to the market. FTG score have changed a bit since last week, showing modest signs that technical maybe slowly shifting the bullish bias that the cot report is indicating.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C, LS – 577 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -21.4, W -40.9, M -4.5 /
Very large bullish stress in CHF suggesting higher prices are on the corner, but FTG scores warn caution, we may need to wait a few more days, possibly weeks. I think it is important to analyze all such currencies (measured in USD) together with the USD Index.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 9%, SS – 24% /
FTG Score / D 12.9, W 25.3, M 26.4 /
With a bullish cot change signal and no bearish extreme present, adding bullish FTG values I would be expecting further increasing prices.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.8, W -32.6, M -18.0 /
While the extreme has further increased the past two weeks, FTG negative sentiment has been decreasing gradually. Coffee is definitely a good opportunity we should be watching closely.

Wheat (Chicago)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 44.1, W 53.8, M 30.6 /
All Time bearish cot extreme combined with pretty bullish values in FTG. We may need to be patient and wait for a good entering opportunity /this applies if you wish to maximize your Risk/Rewards ratio. If you are a long term investor, you might neglect this and take a position right away.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. This time I want to focus ONLY on metals, especially Silver!!

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C – 13%, LS – 12%, SS – 7% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -21.9, W -34, M 3.3 /
Not only do we have a bullish cot change signal in Silver, but (!) again we have reached ALL TIME COT Extreme in C & LS positions! Commercials are net long!! Amazing… Something really big is on its way…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 18%, LS – 27% /
FTG Score / D 32.4, W 18.3, M 17.8 /
Bullish cot change signal together with positive reading from FuturesTradingGuides suggesting further strength in the market.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 240 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -28.7, W -26.9, M -21.5 /
Beautiful bullish extreme, but as said in the cot review, could further increase (lower prices supported by FTG scores).

Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – 97 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -39.3, W -11.5, M 3.7 /
Large extreme, but not as great as in other metals… If buy in metals --> not copper!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 31%. 29% /
FTG Score / D 49.1, W 9.0, M 21.4 /
All cot signals show bearishness in the market, but FTG scores seem to be supporting higher prices.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 12.2, W 30.2, M 37.0 /
All Time bearish cot extreme in the market --> getting prepared for lower prices may be a good idea.

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 875, LS – 875 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -72.3, W -42.2, M -0.3 /
Huge bullish cot extreme in Gold, but at the same time the daily FTG score (-72.3) together with the weekly (-42.2) pulls be back from the arena for a while…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 36% 14% /
FTG Score / D -4.1, W 28.0, M 36.8 /
Interesting to see Traders still close to bullish extreme levels here. As said in the review, I think we should always have a look at the other indexes as well to get an overall picture. I had a look at the U.S. Stock Index Complex cot data (only at COTbase) and saw All Time BEARISH cot extreme!! So even with the bullish signs we have right now in Nasdaq (bullish cot change signal as well), I’m more leaning toward the idea that stock indexes are way overvalued at the moment.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -59.5, W -45.2, M -8.5 /
Although we have this beautiful bullish cot extreme (All Time), because of the significant FTG Scores I’d be more careful in entering the market. Of course if you are a long term investor, you may neglect these shorter term signals

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 910, LS – 911 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -10.7, W -44.1, M -9.1 /
The picture is pretty clear, the extreme we have in metals these days is astonishing. Gold seems to have bottomed and there is a good chance that we shall see rising prices!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 22%, SS - 24% /
FTG Score / D 15.8, W -38.8, M -14.8 /
Larger change in Traders positions suggest some rebound in prices. The extreme has risen also, plus weekly and monthly FTG scores are bearish. We may see some decline.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C, LS – 176 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.1, W -1.4, M -10.4 /
Significant bullish extreme, but (!) caution is advised due to large bearish FTG score (daily).

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 83 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -20.4, W -44.3, M -27.4 /
Relatively larger bullish extreme (about 1.5 years since Traders were at such levels) suggesting a possible strengthening, on the other hand FTG scores on all timeframes producing bearish signals. Picture is not that easy, we can argue in both directions.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 28%, SS - 20% /
FTG Score / D -20.5, W 12.0, M 34.7 /
We saw a bullish cot change signal, but the extreme is still bearish. This, combined with a -20.5 daily FTG score suggests to me that we may neglect the change signal and focus our attention on the larger picture.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C, LS – 178 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.9, W -0.5, M -14.3 /
The picture remained the same in the past two weeks since my last post… The bullish extreme is in place, prices should head north in the medium/long term.

Euro
COT Extreme / C – 85, LS – 86 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -61.3, W -11.3, M -12.4 /
Although bullish extreme grew larger, the HUGE daily FTG score pushes me towards the assumption that price will continue to fall.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C - 27%, LS – 30% /
FTG Score / D -16.9, W -30.2, M -43.6 /
Huge bearish cot change signal which brings expectations of lower prices in the short run… still, I’d say that we shouldn’t forget about the all-time bullish extreme which caused the recent rallies --> it is still in place… On the other hand we see greater weaknesses in the future from FuturesTradingGuides: Monthly FTG score at -43.6, weekly scores are also significant… Sum: I may step aside from this market and search for more clearer opportunities.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C - 76, LS – 154, SS – 73 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -6.6, W 13.4, M -6.8 /
My focus is purely on the cot report here, since FTG scores are more or less in neutral zone for me… Looking at the 5-year chart it becomes clear that we are headed towards the end of this decline. I am not suggesting to exit current short positions / enter long, since throughout my years of experience I have seen multiple examples of extremes widening to greater and great levels for many weeks/months… If I had to bet, I’d say there is a large chance this will happen here, but (!) the warning signs are here.

Lumber
COT Extreme / C, LS – 147 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -33.4, W -5.2, M 39.5 /
Huge bullish extreme suggesting higher prices coming, still… -33.4 daily FTG scores pull me back from entering yet. The monthly scores definitely support the picture painted by the cot report. Sum: we may see a shift in the trend happening the next couple of months.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[ifmcinstitute]

Great thread!!
Looking forward to see such threads.

 

[Windlesham1]

Sorry this just looks like nonsense to me- it's just level 2 futures data,and taken in isolation is meaningless.You don't know what other positions these futures ar held against. you can be short one series,long another and so on. That is without looking at underlying exposure or other derivatives such as swaps, forwards and options, vanilla and exotic