Finally, in profit territory...

[No Quarter]

Hi there. Finally it happened to me. They say it takes 4-5 years to learn to trade profitably, and that seems to be right in my case. I have been profitable for about 9-10 months now, but more and more so every month. And 2 months ago I for the first time withdrew money from ETX where I trade, almost £12,000. Really nice compared to constantly putting money into the account.

Those that have read my posts will know that my way of trading is about recognizing patterns, propose a theory, and then in Excel test on historic data whether that theory can produce a positive outcome. My questions to this great forum have been about that, about speeding Excel up, Stop Loss placement etc. At this time I’ve made about 3000+ Excel models testing various things, and the result of that work is what I now use to make money trading.

I know that many people attack the markets in many different ways, some use candlesticks, some use Fibonacci, some have their own patterns that they look for. I have tested many ideas, and I guess the main difference between what I do and what I think most other people do, is that I test any idea on historic data first. I see no need spending my time and money on testing in real life when Excel can do it for me. And using Excel, I can also optimize Stop Loss values etc., no need for trial and costly error testing on markets.

If you’re still reading, you may be interested in knowing more, and copy what I do? If so you’re welcome to do it, my models are no secret. If you want to know more, you can either contact me on this forum, or you can read the book I just published. It’s just about the only trading book I know of that you can buy, read, implement and make money. You do have to have three things going for you: You need to be capable in Excel, you need to be disciplined in trading and you need to be able to leave your emotions out of it. If you have those qualities, I think this method could be for you.

Incidentally, the book was written mostly before the Corona crisis, and I can tell you my models have worked extremely well in this high volatility, I’ve made my biggest €+ days in this period.

Thanks

The book is Technical Analysis: The Scientific Approach, self-published on bod.dk.

 

[timsk]

Well done No Quarter - good to hear a success story!

 

[Trader333]

No Quarter,

Can you say a little about the following:

What instruments are you trading ?
You say you made 3000 Excel models so over what time-frame was that ?
Where did you get data to do your analysis ?
I was unable to see if the book is downloadable or physical and how many pages is it ?

 

[No Quarter]

What instruments are you trading ?
You say you made 3000 Excel models so over what time-frame was that ?
Where did you get data to do your analysis ?
I was unable to see if the book is downloadable or physical and how many pages is it ?

Hi Trader333

Fair questions, thanks
-Early on my models looked into Dow DAX FTSE GBPUSD USDJYP and Oil. But I soon found that Dow always gave me the best results. None of my models showed superior results in other instruments. Part of the reason is probably the good volatility/spread ratio
-The 3000 sheets have been from about March 2017 to now
-I've used Tickstory for data, free
-The book is 156 pages, and it's only available in print, to discourage copying. It's a quite expensive book per page, but so are all the books that I've bought that has some data and facts about patterns (numbers and formulas, not graphs), that one can copy, implement and profit from. I bought Behavior of Prices on Wall Street, used on Amazon for €100. In the book I tell you how to contact me and get a copy of my default spreadsheet model, so you can do what I've done if you want develop even further yourself after reading

 

[No Quarter]

For those interested, here's the content of the book. Sorry it looks a bit messy

1. My story................................................................................ 5
4-5 years to make a consistent profit........................................................ 5
My development as a trader....................................................................... 7
Disclaimer...................................................................................................... 11
2. Resources........................................................................... 12
Thanks............................................................................................................ 12
Online resources.......................................................................................... 12
3. Approaches, part 1........................................................ 14
Fundamental approach............................................................................... 14
Following the news..................................................................................... 14
Technical Analysis......................................................................................... 15
4. Excel models..................................................................... 17
Excel, my background, and speed............................................................. 17
5. Basics.................................................................................... 19
Platforms....................................................................................................... 19
Graphs............................................................................................................ 20
Spreads.......................................................................................................... 22
Stop Loss....................................................................................................... 23
The two main reasons why most traders lose money......................... 24
Indices/FX/Commodities........................................................................... 25
6. Trading................................................................................ 27
Up or Down? Enter? Stop Loss? Exit?...................................................... 27
Enter.............................................................................................................. 27
Stop Loss....................................................................................................... 27
Exit.................................................................................................................. 29
Limit............................................................................................................... 31
Orders............................................................................................................ 32
7. Adding on............................................................................ 34
No guts, no glory.......................................................................................... 34
5-6x my money in an hour! Twice!........................................................... 40
8. Approaches, part 2........................................................ 43
Timeframe: Scalping, Price Action, Swing Trading, Trends................... 43
Discipline: Signals, News............................................................................. 45
9. The Scientific Approach.............................................. 46
Pattern Recognition, Test and Verify....................................................... 46
The Scientific Approach.............................................................................. 47
10. Excel models..................................................................... 50
250+ different models, up to 15 versions.............................................. 50
11. First Excel model........................................................... 57
First major model explained..................................................................... 57
The main engine.......................................................................................... 63
Excel’s Table function.................................................................................. 67
12. Trailing Stop Loss and Limit..................................... 74
13. 24 hour view..................................................................... 78
Breakthrough #1 (12,000+ points/year)................................................. 78
14. Stopping out, reverse?................................................. 88
15. How wide Stop Loss? ATR............................................. 93
16. More ideas on the Stop Loss...................................... 99
17. Out to Lunch?................................................................. 104
Breakthrough #2 (30,000+ points/year).............................................. 104
18. Weekly pattern............................................................ 110
Breakthrough #3 (50,000+ points/year).............................................. 110
Complexity................................................................................................. 113
Hard work................................................................................................... 116
Sensitivities................................................................................................ 117
19. Long term view, SMA................................................... 121
Simple Moving Average........................................................................... 122
20. Long term view, 375.................................................... 128
21. Long term view, Adding on...................................... 131
22. Other things tested…................................................ 135
Dow, DAX, FTSE, GBPUSD, USDJPY, Oil.................................................. 135
Even more ideas to get the important Stop Loss right..................... 137
Double confirmation and Direction thresholds................................... 139
Amount based on ATR.............................................................................. 139
Orders with Threshold............................................................................. 139
OCO orders................................................................................................. 140
OPP – Opening Price Principle................................................................ 141
Candlestick patterns................................................................................. 144
Scalping........................................................................................................ 145
23. Converting points into money.............................. 147
Scalability.................................................................................................... 147
Margin required........................................................................................ 148
Risk averse.................................................................................................. 149
24. Status................................................................................ 151
Never ending development.................................................................... 152

 

[Trader333]

-The 3000 sheets have been from about March 2017 to now

Crikey that is still 1000 a year or 20 a week which is some going

 

[jeffre5]

Is this your third book not your first

 

[No Quarter]

Trader333, yes but it's about 250+ different models in up to 15 version. So some days I made 10+ versions of the same model. And yes, I enjoy large Excel sheets

Jeffre5, it's my 3rd book, but it's my first book on trading.

 

[No Quarter]

In my book I write that you can have copies of my spreadsheets. Since I've received much help on this forum through this development, I'll send the two sheets free to anyone here on the forum.
Write me on [email protected] if you're interested, and mention your T2W user name, and I'll return your mail with the files.
Thanks

 

[No Quarter]

In my book I mention I use ETX for Dow30 with a nce 1 point spread. However since Corona ETX has really upped the spread, first to 12 points in the panic days, but still now when the ATR(4) is as before Corona, they charge 3 points. So I'm considering changing. Does anyone know of a major broker that offers DJ30 at 1 or 2 points? Or where I can find an objective overview?
Thanks.

BTW, book sales is going well, thanks to the buyers, some may be in here

 

[No Quarter]

Hi again. Book sales slow so far, but have gone past breakeven . But I just wanted to share this review from amazon.de, and no, it's not my mother...

"Finally a book that delivers on the read-this-and-make-money-copying-it promise. It's so data based and well explained. If you know your Excel. An entertaining read as well.
Strongly advise investing in this book as a way to shortcut the learning curve and prepare the trader for the game.
Immensely readable !"