JumpOff said:
So in order to know if this is for you, you would compare the number of times you picked the wrong place to fade (and the total losses associated with that) against the amount of profit you would miss if you wait for confirmation that the reversal has actually occurred and enter at a 'safer' time, right? (It's a big assumption on my part that there is ever a 'safer' time...) Off the top of my head I would think this would be a bad strategy - because their would never be any big gaining positions to offset the losses........
JO
Dead right JO
I trade breakouts on CME IMM.
Accuracy around 68%, but pro top in the region of 40 - 170 points ( especially V tops & bottoms)
It is all very well to say " leave the big risk alone" but it generates the explosive profits
as you know.
My new new plan involves use my volatility based stops as a measure of entry.
% A is down around 55% but can be improved with practise, but the good news is risk
has dropped to 18% of the breakout system.
This putting me a day or so early into the trade and if it develops into a breakout then SOP
applies.
W/L is up as is MCI ( my confidence Index) which leads to increased contracts.
I also trade in pairs, one for points and one to run ... helps lessen the pain.
Sometimes if the points trade wins, and I do´nt feel good about the run, I will
can the balance of the trade or revert to breakout if I like the risk or I will roll the trade.
To be honest, I am more concerned with living with the outcome of a losing trade.