Exits on crude

[pcrude]

Can anyone help with the following? I've been trading FTSE futures and options for several years now, doing fine, and started day trading WTI a few months ago. My question is simply this: is it better in general terms to

a) try to take a few ticks on each trade and not agonise over missing the occasional big move or

b) bring stop to b/e after a reasonable move and let the market play out, thus running the risk of leaving money on the table.

Any thoughts would be much appreciated.

pcrude

 

[tomorton]

There's been much discussion elsewhere here in the last week or so.

Personally, I take my target profit and get out to re-position in the same instrument or elsewhere. The reasoning behind this is that you should always hope for a target derived from TA, just the same as TA gives you an entry (and, hopefully, a stop). So if you go long at 5000 with a target of 5250 and a stop at 4900, it will be (I assume) because your TA suggests there is a strong probability of reaching 5250, so there must be a decreasing probability of reaching 5300, 5350 etc. You can't make the market alter its physics just so you can take some more profit. As probability of further rise decreases, risk is increasing, so now you're taking more risk to get less reward - is that rational?

 

[pcrude]

There's been much discussion elsewhere here in the last week or so.

Personally, I take my target profit and get out to re-position in the same instrument or elsewhere. The reasoning behind this is that you should always hope for a target derived from TA, just the same as TA gives you an entry (and, hopefully, a stop). So if you go long at 5000 with a target of 5250 and a stop at 4900, it will be (I assume) because your TA suggests there is a strong probability of reaching 5250, so there must be a decreasing probability of reaching 5300, 5350 etc. You can't make the market alter its physics just so you can take some more profit. As probability of further rise decreases, risk is increasing, so now you're taking more risk to get less reward - is that rational?

Thanks that's very helpful

 

[xyz456]

Better take your targets at oil , because I learn , that the oil shot against you very quick
and there is no chance to go out .....:-0
20 -30 pips trades are normal takeprofit , to get 50-100 pips , there is a high risk of
spikes and get shots to your stoploss ....
Better take the win and go , trading trough in oil is very hard , because oil has a high
volatility and it is nearly impossible to set a stoploss at near distance.
Last friday I get 2 spikes , because I wait to long after 70 pips win and the price come
back and I lost 10 pips at the end ....
If I did 3 targets 20 40 60 I will have only small losses .....


hope that helps you

 

[tomorton]

I'm happy to find out today that Linda Bradford Raschke agrees with me. Set your target, take it, get out, move on.

 

[AC26XP]

I take my target profit and get out to re-position in the same instrument or elsewhere. The reasoning behind this is that you should always hope for a target derived from TA, just the same as TA gives you an entry

Agree.

My target sell price for oil this cycle is/was $82.16 (Fibbo related), so I have begun to walk (not run) for the exit on oil.

Sure, oil could go higher, but that is not the point.
The point is exactly as Tomorton indicates: establish a strategy, set targets (and stops), and maintain the discipline to remain emotionally detached.

Profit is profit, and no one ever realized it by watching the green ticker turn red.

Don't be greedy (ie., emotional).

Happy trading,
AC

 

[pcrude]

Thanks for the reply; it helps when there is consensus.

Yesterday and today were very good cases in point. Yesterday was a one way trade from early morning (I'm in the UK) right up to the close, where one could have bought and got out at a predetermined reasonable profit, only to agonise cover the continuing rise. Today (at the time of writing 3.45 pm) the same strategy would have exited perfectly, before a retracement. If one knew no-one was long all the way up (or short all the way down) on big days like yesterday, but rather many participants taking a few ticks here and there throughout the session, it would be a lot easier to stomach leaving large moves (up or down) on the table!

Either way I'm grateful for your comments.

pcrude

 

[Metals trader]

oil had some nice moves today. currently waiting for 83 or a short but prob wont get there now. anyone else thinking crude is a short, or buying on dips as ive heard some suggest?

 

[AC26XP]

oil had some nice moves today. currently waiting for 83 or a short but prob wont get there now. anyone else thinking crude is a short, or buying on dips as ive heard some suggest?

I sold at $82.16 and again at $82.69.

Time to short?

Not today, would like to see how the market digests the US employment info due out Friday... and that effect on $USD.
Depending on that data may open a short position late Friday, definitely next week.
And then will be looking for $75-ish to exit.

All IMHO, of course.

Happy trading,
AC

 

[xyz456]

yes its better to think about the short at 82 . xx , higher Oil will not come so soon .
I short the day highs at the evening , or when bad news drive the markets between
14 -17 :00 MEZ .
But dont wait to long , take your targets by time and go .....