Ex hedge fund trader diary :)

adrian247

Junior member
20 2
Bildschirmfoto 2019-03-10 um 19.19.32.png


Focus trade:

The medium-term picture based on historical patterns adjusted to the recent price and volatility (red line) is bullish for silver (ETF: SLV / blue line). This is true for different look-back periods.

Now I am looking for promising long setups in the hourly chart. Already have a position from Friday.
 

Panic!

Member
70 12
Interesting, look forward to following this journal. What made you leave the hedge fund?
 

adrian247

Junior member
20 2
sentiment.png



I do not think we are done with the short-term correction. Would like to see "fear" first. Afterwards, I am medium-term bullish.
 

adrian247

Junior member
20 2
Bildschirmfoto 2019-03-11 um 16.15.56.png


Most historical patterns support the view that there is probably a chance to make some money with shorts in the S&P500 over the next couple weeks.

However, price action has to confirm this thesis as always.
 

adrian247

Junior member
20 2
Interesting, look forward to following this journal. What made you leave the hedge fund?
After 5 years I wanted something new. Now I trade just my own money which is quite relaxing. But it is possible I will start managing money for others again in the future. I just need a break.
 

adrian247

Junior member
20 2
Bildschirmfoto 2019-03-13 um 15.42.34.png


- S&P500 stopped out. Market is to strong, broke the structure of falling highs and falling lows in the hourly chart.
- Silver working well, took profit 1/3 of position.
 

adrian247

Junior member
20 2
Solid thesis + good position management + right mindset = attractive long-term returns

What is your formula for trading/investing success?
 

adrian247

Junior member
20 2
  • Newest COT data still looking medium-term bullish for crude oil.
  • Gold and silver: constructive. Nowhere near an extreme despite the good performance of gold. Pullbacks are rather buying opportunities.
  • COT data in the dollar index confirms the above mentioned. Relative hedging was quite extreme in the second half of the year 2018. Price and position data shows some roll-over in progress.
 

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