Evolution of technical analysis?


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I agree with you Atilla, about what truly causes markets to move.
But TA is a recognition that we are not privy to such inside track information, we are outsiders, and that we have to infer intent from a second-hand position.

Maths and statistics based trading, or patterns-trading, or pullbacks, reflects an outsiders view, where we just try to follow the prime-movers trail.
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I think it it axiomatic that price moves in relation to supply and demand. In turn, that is affected by the factors related by Atilla and public sentiment (fund managers must buy/sell if public money is pouring into/out of their funds whether they like it or not).

I think price action TA (I give no credence to indicators) gives some clue about the supply/demand balance and future direction and provides potential trading opportunities. It is by no means infallible, though, and to my mind absolutely everything depends on the trader’s skill in managing the trade by limiting the damage when it doesn’t go as anticipated and taking sufficient advantage when it does. This requires skilful judgement and discipline and I can’t think of any “artificial” props that would help.
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Over past few weeks, as I have been looking the charts off the 1-mins (o_O), I have been able to see real-time the Sup and Res being formed,bounced off, and broken, etc.

I an beginning to appreciate such things, so respect your position, and people like Dentalfloss, who does all this brilliant trendline break stuff, on his thread.

But I am a lazy software developer, and cannot, as yet, find a way to identify and automate a trading system around such things, in the way you can with indicators.
I want to be able to create an algo/EA, and just babysit it during the day, shut it off at 4pm, and go do other stuff.
But I get what you mean about understanding the underlying cause of price moves.


4 0
1-'There is nothing new in Wall Street' - Jesse Livermore

2- It's been proved enough times that the most successful trading business model is based on fraud, corruption, lies, deception, manipulation, collusion, cheating, false accounting, stealing, bail outs, bail ins and generally 'doing God's work'. (see 1)

3 -Is the 1 bil$ repayable or can i piss it all up the wall like say.. Jamie Dimon or dick Fuld..?

4- if it's repayable, can I have a large chunk up front now before I start giving you my best ideas for nothing ?

5-Most traders will still lose no matter what...but who cares about humanity right?

6- Any TA that threatened the profits of the trillionaires would be bought up and you'd be told to go away and forget about it.

7- With a tiny fraction of yourbudget you'd get better results training a team of chimpanzees to follow your trading rules.

It's been proved that those guys are pretty tenacious, focused and unclouded by emotion or delusions of technical excellence
They just carve out bread and butter results everytime they hear the bell ring. (they even clap along with the other morons at the open)

And bottom line, they know the difference between obeying a stoploss or getting tasered in the nuts.

I guarantee you could taser most wall streeters in the nuts repeatedly and they would still figure out a way to rig bids on municipal bonds while blowing smoke up your arse..

#6 sounds like a great exit stretegy!
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