Wicked_Daddy
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Being relatively new to Forex (<1 year) I have never seen anything like what happened today, starting late last week. Aside from crowded USD long positions unwinding, it seems very extreme for the EU to move as high and as aggressively as it has while other USD pairs are either much less aggressive against USD (GBP) or went the opposite direction (AUD). None of the fundamentals line up and the technicals are weak as well.
So now the question in my mind is; what's next? Many of the "experts" talk about support in the high 1.14's but the long term charts would suggest a return to the 1.12 - 1.10 range. Still there are those that point to the fundamental issue of QE and that 1.08 and even parity are still on the horizon. One could also argue that this is the breakout from the range and we'll now see EU begin it's upward trend. But how? The economy in Europe is just as bad, mediocre or teetering on indecision as anywhere else.
My personal opinion is based on much of the above and a weekly chart 8,3,3 stochastic that, depending on how the market settles out this week, will have a very pronounced divergence in favor of a bear response. 4 hour price action just closed/created the most extreme pin bar I think I've ever seen and it's stochastic is also divergent of all this increase and has turned over, now below 80%. It seems it's time for the sellers to jump in and re-create the panic for those that have not closed out their EU longs yet. It's tempting to short the EU for the drop but perhaps this madness is not over yet. So I'm just watching.
Anyone want to give an opinion based on what they think will happen? I think this is fascinating stuff.
So now the question in my mind is; what's next? Many of the "experts" talk about support in the high 1.14's but the long term charts would suggest a return to the 1.12 - 1.10 range. Still there are those that point to the fundamental issue of QE and that 1.08 and even parity are still on the horizon. One could also argue that this is the breakout from the range and we'll now see EU begin it's upward trend. But how? The economy in Europe is just as bad, mediocre or teetering on indecision as anywhere else.
My personal opinion is based on much of the above and a weekly chart 8,3,3 stochastic that, depending on how the market settles out this week, will have a very pronounced divergence in favor of a bear response. 4 hour price action just closed/created the most extreme pin bar I think I've ever seen and it's stochastic is also divergent of all this increase and has turned over, now below 80%. It seems it's time for the sellers to jump in and re-create the panic for those that have not closed out their EU longs yet. It's tempting to short the EU for the drop but perhaps this madness is not over yet. So I'm just watching.
Anyone want to give an opinion based on what they think will happen? I think this is fascinating stuff.
