JTrader
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andycan said:
For me
hearing what trades and in what direction other people are placing, can just add confusion and be of no help, as we all have a viewpoint.
But sometimes, someone else may point out something obvious and interesting that i had not considered or noticed.
It makes you feel better at least, when others agree with your opinions!
JTrader
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Are these established EURUSD intraday price action tendencies
I'm primarily into trading small timeframes with small stop losses.
However, from just watching EURUSD price action over the last few weeks I feel I've bcome good at anticipating correctly where price is headed on a given day.
If price for example fails to break through 1.3000 as it did at 0405 today, it seems that it is likely to drift down to 1.2975, if 1.2975 fails, 1.2950 is the next target, if 1.2950 fails to act as support, 1.2925 and 1.2900 then come into play.
The inter-relationship between 100,75,50,25,00 and how price reacts, and intereacts with these levels seems to a large extent to shape how EURUSD prices move - in my opinion, and with my limited real-time experience.
If price fails to drop below 100 and finds support around 100, then the opposite seems to apply, in that the next above 25, 50, and 75 and 100 can come into play, either acting as resistance, or if price breaks through that level it heads onto the next 1/4 century mark.
I also think that 00, 50 and 100 levels are more significant than 25 and 75 levels, and that these potential support and resistance levels are more likely to break easily, and have more reason to break, if price is being driven by momentum/a forming trend following significant economic data.
Morning sessions (mainly without the big USA news releases, and a smaller number of EUR economic releases that are capable of having a significant impact on EURUSD price) seem more predictable to me, although more difficult and uncertain to trade confidently for me personally - due to the anxiety caused by rangy, slow price action, and lack of a strong trend in either direction.
During such mornings, to me it seems that if there is nothing causing upward momentum, price slowly drifts downwards in a gentle diagonal trend, with occasional faster steps down in price due to panic selling once 100,50,75, and 25, and sometimes when other multiples of 10 levels are breached.
But perhaps this is only because the longer term trend is currently downwards?
If the longer term trend was currently up, perhaps EURUSD would be more inclined to slowly drift upwards even when theres no economic data causing this upwards movement?
If you trade EURUSD, what do you think to my observations, theories and interpretation of tendencies within the unfolding of EURUSD intraday price action?
Thanks.........
I'm primarily into trading small timeframes with small stop losses.
However, from just watching EURUSD price action over the last few weeks I feel I've bcome good at anticipating correctly where price is headed on a given day.
If price for example fails to break through 1.3000 as it did at 0405 today, it seems that it is likely to drift down to 1.2975, if 1.2975 fails, 1.2950 is the next target, if 1.2950 fails to act as support, 1.2925 and 1.2900 then come into play.
The inter-relationship between 100,75,50,25,00 and how price reacts, and intereacts with these levels seems to a large extent to shape how EURUSD prices move - in my opinion, and with my limited real-time experience.
If price fails to drop below 100 and finds support around 100, then the opposite seems to apply, in that the next above 25, 50, and 75 and 100 can come into play, either acting as resistance, or if price breaks through that level it heads onto the next 1/4 century mark.
I also think that 00, 50 and 100 levels are more significant than 25 and 75 levels, and that these potential support and resistance levels are more likely to break easily, and have more reason to break, if price is being driven by momentum/a forming trend following significant economic data.
Morning sessions (mainly without the big USA news releases, and a smaller number of EUR economic releases that are capable of having a significant impact on EURUSD price) seem more predictable to me, although more difficult and uncertain to trade confidently for me personally - due to the anxiety caused by rangy, slow price action, and lack of a strong trend in either direction.
During such mornings, to me it seems that if there is nothing causing upward momentum, price slowly drifts downwards in a gentle diagonal trend, with occasional faster steps down in price due to panic selling once 100,50,75, and 25, and sometimes when other multiples of 10 levels are breached.
But perhaps this is only because the longer term trend is currently downwards?
If the longer term trend was currently up, perhaps EURUSD would be more inclined to slowly drift upwards even when theres no economic data causing this upwards movement?
If you trade EURUSD, what do you think to my observations, theories and interpretation of tendencies within the unfolding of EURUSD intraday price action?
Thanks.........
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JTrader
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Trading based on established EURUSD intraday price action tendencies
..............I'd love to be able to trade my interpretation of the bigger picture, as this interpretation i feel is becoming increasingly in tune with how the day unfolds. To enter a trade on the smaller timeframe, see it move into profit, and then back-up my interpretation by letting that trade develop into an intraday swing type trade.
One of the problems is finding an entry point on the small timescale, that could cope with smaller stop-losses used for the small timeframe.
If I don't get a valid entry signal, I am inclined to wait for one. It may never come and I miss the bus in terms of catching the move I had predicted.
One option to manage this situation would be to use bigger stop-losses, and smaller stake sizes, but still risking the same amount of capital per trade.
By concentrating on ther smaller timescale with smaller stop-losses, I may only capture a fraction of what the whole move (which I had foreseen as likely)) is that I may only get a tiny fraction of the number of pips that were available overall, due to entering and exiting the trade several times, taking a few stop-losses along the way, exiting profitable trades prematurely due to lack of belief in my interpretation of where the price is heading to, meaning that my profits ane up being smaller than they could/should/would have been if I'd maintained belief in my interpretation of prices next likely destination.
If I get a good entry, go into profit, don't take that profit in the belief that the market is headed further in my favour, if I'm wrong, the very least that can happen is I'll come out at breakeven having not taken the available profit. Perhaps this is slightly better than exiting a profitable trade prematurely when your hunch was that price would continue in your favour.....
Thanks.
..............I'd love to be able to trade my interpretation of the bigger picture, as this interpretation i feel is becoming increasingly in tune with how the day unfolds. To enter a trade on the smaller timeframe, see it move into profit, and then back-up my interpretation by letting that trade develop into an intraday swing type trade.
One of the problems is finding an entry point on the small timescale, that could cope with smaller stop-losses used for the small timeframe.
If I don't get a valid entry signal, I am inclined to wait for one. It may never come and I miss the bus in terms of catching the move I had predicted.
One option to manage this situation would be to use bigger stop-losses, and smaller stake sizes, but still risking the same amount of capital per trade.
By concentrating on ther smaller timescale with smaller stop-losses, I may only capture a fraction of what the whole move (which I had foreseen as likely)) is that I may only get a tiny fraction of the number of pips that were available overall, due to entering and exiting the trade several times, taking a few stop-losses along the way, exiting profitable trades prematurely due to lack of belief in my interpretation of where the price is heading to, meaning that my profits ane up being smaller than they could/should/would have been if I'd maintained belief in my interpretation of prices next likely destination.
If I get a good entry, go into profit, don't take that profit in the belief that the market is headed further in my favour, if I'm wrong, the very least that can happen is I'll come out at breakeven having not taken the available profit. Perhaps this is slightly better than exiting a profitable trade prematurely when your hunch was that price would continue in your favour.....
Thanks.
JTrader
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pssonice said:
If you are referring to my posts - You might not be interested, other people might be. You can only speak for yourself.
If you are not referring to my posts, then please ignore these comments. But still, you can only speak for yourself
.
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jiggly
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i'm an intra week trader, i entered a short position for the euro, towards the end of last week i found it hard to make money on the short side in this market, I only made 40 pips on the trade, another short position in the aud market created a loss for me so overall bullish dollar was harder to make money this week over the longer term.
my opinion is that the euro will rally to around 1.32 at the least, i have repositioned myself long at 1.2920.
I am waiting for 1.3000 to break to the upside, otherwise i will exit with a small profit and wait as the downward trend may continue into next week.
my opinion is that the euro will rally to around 1.32 at the least, i have repositioned myself long at 1.2920.
I am waiting for 1.3000 to break to the upside, otherwise i will exit with a small profit and wait as the downward trend may continue into next week.
andycan
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and there you have it jtrader
opinions opinions
which in effect do not help your learning process
some here derive their conclusion to where a market is going via TA others via FA
so what is it you are looking for?
you stated you want discussion but not conclusions but you cant have one without the other
i'm not having a dig, i just want to know what you are thinking
opinions opinions
which in effect do not help your learning process
some here derive their conclusion to where a market is going via TA others via FA
so what is it you are looking for?
you stated you want discussion but not conclusions but you cant have one without the other
i'm not having a dig, i just want to know what you are thinking
Atilla
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JTrader said:If you are referring to my posts - You might not be interested, other people might be. You can only speak for yourself.
If you are not referring to my posts, then please ignore these comments. But still, you can only speak for yourself
I agree with your posts JTrader and most of the other peoples comments on this thread.
I disagree strongly with pssonice comments when he says
we rnt interested in what u r thinking.
we r looking forward to your analysis based on charttechnic or fundamentals.
It's like tell me what I want to know otherwise don't speak...
Ignore such peoples comments and carry on as you were. I'm interested.
I like to use Fundamental Analysis to confirm my TAs.
I'm currently long on EurUSD with a stop at 1.285. I'm expecting a bounce. Your previous analysis of the downtrend I agree with and how the 00 levels are more significant than mid or quarter sections.
I would also add from the news about that investors and central banks are switching out of the $ and into the Euro & Gold and I suspect unless the US & Fed fixes their twin defecits this trend will continue.
The confrontation between US & Iran will also I feel increase the flight from the $ as it will draw in Russia and China to support Iran and raise Gold.
andycan
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Atilla said:
Atilla
i use fundamentals too
and everythng points to people jumping out of dollar into euro which tells me the opposite will happen
euro is on its way down and a long way down it has
the dollar has not completed its rally
but these are road maps i have been short since 1.34 part covered at 1.32 and re entered 1.33 and still full position short
the fundamentals say up the technicals say down fundamentals can be skewed charts can't certainly not for any length of time
good luck on your trades
Atilla
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andycan said:
Hi Andycan,
Nice gains but I think we are approaching a very strong support level. I've just had a similar chat/thread with Jacinto and here are my reasons on this thread
I'm watching it closely at the mo and will close my positions if 1.285 level is breached. Nothing ventured nothing gained.
Atilla said:Hi Andycan,
Nice gains but I think we are approaching a very strong support level. I've just had a similar chat/thread with Jacinto and here are my reasons on this thread
I'm watching it closely at the mo and will close my positions if 1.285 level is breached. Nothing ventured nothing gained.
atilla,
interesting to have that discussion. happy to continue with it over time in this thread if you prefer
j
andycan
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Hi AtillaAtilla said:Hi Andycan,
Nice gains but I think we are approaching a very strong support level. I've just had a similar chat/thread with Jacinto and here are my reasons on this thread
I'm watching it closely at the mo and will close my positions if 1.285 level is breached. Nothing ventured nothing gained.
my thinking is we go to par or close and then have a massive move up very long term the euro is going to be the 'currency'
i suspect the dollar will have plenty to say about that, for now! but whilst they have fire in their bellies the US will fight tooth and nail
and they have proven without doubt they can drag a losing battle on for years
Atilla
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andycan said:
Yes I think so too.
Currently watching Gold & Euro very closely. Gold doing very well but the Euro I'm expecting that bounce (guessing / hoping the support level will hold).
Also bullish on oil but not in it at the moment. I've lost some money on GBPUSD so I'm staying out until I'm more certain.
I think the GBPUSD is in a band and will oscillate between 1.94 - 1.97 before moving upwards again. But staying away from that too for now.
Finally, I'm also long on the NIK225. Just entering positive territory now.
I can't manage more than couple of trades at a time.
I see economic warfare out there. Did you know that Churchill had a plan to export gold to the US and distribute it for free so as to cause inflation to wreck the $ rise agains the £. Does anybody remember £1=$8 many many moons ago..?
